The Kyle Lohse Love/Hate Thread

[rluzinski]

Lohse is a much better pitcher now than Suppan was his best years, kind of the same guy only with much better control. We signed him for less money as well and for 1 fewer year so I definitely like this more than the Suppan deal. If this didn't come with losing the prospect I'd be ok with the deal. Losing the prospect makes me dislike it but I understand it at least.

 

I will second all that. Lohse has had two very good years in a row. He's projected to be about a 3.6-3.7 ERA pitcher in 2013. Does that mean I like this deal? Not really. I like it a million times more than the Suppan deal, however.

[dlk9s]

Nooooooooooo!

 

Lohse is trash. I have never hated a move this team has made since Doug and Mark took over but I hate this. I don't care if Kyle wins a Cy Young this year I will hate him and boo him every chance I get.

http://i.imgur.com/XgOKN.gif

[topper09er]

 

The stupidity of this move is beyond words for me right now. This, folks, is what happens when you play for the "window" and have no long-term plan.

 

Its not that simple, a large factor in winning is being lucky that your picks turn out, because no one has really been able to demonstrate the consistent ability to make good baseball draft picks. The failure rate of the first round picks is huge. So yes in theory you should save up picks and develop a class and bring them up together...but in reality you get Ryan Braun once a generation (or less) so when you have them you have to play for that window. The biggest mistake the Brewers could make would be to not go for it all with future HOFer Ryan Braun in his prime leading the league in dingers. To just assume you should let Braun's prime pass because you will just develop a similar player with enough draft picks in foolish.

[adambr2]

I think they forfeit the slot for that pick anyway, so they're not gaining anything financially either by losing the pick.

[hawing]

Well, thanks, Brewers, for doing this transaction during spring break while I was busy doing my students' work. I can't add much original to this thread but I'll still add a few observations:

 

1. As I see it, Lohse was kind of that pricey kitchen gadget that Mark A saw on the store shelf and has had his eye on for months. He couldn't resist. He does like to make moves that the casual fan base (for better or for worse) will interpret as difference-making. I get the balance he chooses to strike, though I'm not always a fan of it.

 

2. Given my decades-long STL antipathy, it's hard for me to not compare this to the last time the Brewers signed a 30-something pitcher coming off a good year in STL. It's not fair to Lohse, but it's hard not to.

 

3. As others here have stated in varying ways, Lohse is coming (unless something goes awry late with the physical), so I'm going to choose to hope for the best. I remember not seeing much point in signing Nyjer two years ago this week, and that had decent return in the end.

[Patrick425]

 

The bonus pool money can be spent however you wish, the amounts aren't locked in with each pick. Last year I believe the 17th slot was allocated 2 million. Say (before signing Lohse obviously) the Brewers found someone willing to sign for 1 million in the first, they could then use the remaining 1 million towards later round picks to maybe sign high ceiling high school players that slipped due to strong college commitments or something like that.

 

Ok, but what I mean is does the money have to be used on the draft..period. If you don't sign any early round draft picks can you use the money in the FA market in the off season, or to offer and extension to a current player, or pay off debt, or pocket it, etc?

[MVP2110]

MVP2110, that's really what this is going to be about. Either Lohse is a much better pitcher with the sinker, and we'll get that benefit, or he's a guy who's about to put up a 4.4 ERA, because he's not in St Louis.

 

I think his stats will be ok, I wouldn't expect him to be the guy he was the last two years, but I think he'll do a respectable job, the thing I'll worry about is injury. That's not based on anything I know about Lohse, it's a generalization for pitchers his age. If the arm holds up, this deal is probably one year too many, which is the price you pay for filling holes via free agency.

I'm hoping its the fact he learned the sinker. Probably with the help of Dave Duncan. Maybe for once Dave Duncan can help us out for once

[JohnBriggs12]

Except budget wise. Last year with two 1st rounders and a supplemental they went very light on latin kids. The budget for player procurement probably in one pool.

The budget angle is precisely why I said "almost"

 

If they're out of it at the trading deadline either of the next two years, they can move him for something.

Sounds good in theory but how likely is that to really happen?

People literally said the exact same thing about Suppan & Wolf.

 

They actually could have likely moved Wolf after 2011 had they eaten some of his salary, but we all know it's not been Melvin's nature to move guys that he's given large contracts to, be they home grown or FA. My guess is Lohse will be here for the duration. What is more interesting is what they will do with Estrada and Narveson if both of those guys have strong years. Lohse just ate up money that could have gone to them.

[sheetskout]

I think they forfeit the slot for that pick anyway, so they're not gaining anything financially either by losing the pick.

 

 

They do, but they're also not spending a first-round signing bonus so that'll do something to subsidize the deal for Lohse. It's not a huge "writeoff" but it's something. Lohse at an adjusted 9million (11million salary minus the two you'd spend on the bonus for pick 17-roughly) isn't so bad.

 

It's 14' and 15' I'm worried about.

[Patrick425]

While I expected many to not like this signing, I never expected the hate that some are displaying to be so excessive. Like others have said, even in a worst case scenario, this is by no means a disaster. If you want to see the definition of disaster, look up Jeffery Hammonds. Signed for $8million a year at a time when the Brewers payroll hovered somewhere in the low $40 million range (so about 20% of total payroll!) and they didn't have 1/4 the talent on the team that they do now (basically zero chance of making the playoffs with or without him). If you remember Hammonds had a career of injuries with almost no seasons of over 400 abs when the Brewers signed him. This did not change after he signed with the Brewers. The Lohse signing pales in comparison to this and is not a disaster.

 

edit: by the way...there was a lot more excitement surrounding the Hammonds signing at the time than there is for Lohse.

[Roderick]

 

The bonus pool money can be spent however you wish, the amounts aren't locked in with each pick. Last year I believe the 17th slot was allocated 2 million. Say (before signing Lohse obviously) the Brewers found someone willing to sign for 1 million in the first, they could then use the remaining 1 million towards later round picks to maybe sign high ceiling high school players that slipped due to strong college commitments or something like that.

 

Ok, but what I mean is does the money have to be used on the draft..period. If you don't sign any early round draft picks can you use the money in the FA market in the off season, or to offer and extension to a current player, or pay off debt, or pocket it, etc?

 

It is like the NFL where you only have so much money you can spend on draft picks. You don't have to spend it - but if you try to save money on the draft you are restricting yourself to players you know will sign for slot or less.

 

Yes the draft money comes from the coffers of the team, and is only small part of the whole corporate budget. So if they don't spend it on draft picks they could spend it on other items like free agency, foreign signings, etc.

 

I am just going to assume the Brewers would have and the Cardinals will sign(ed) a player like Arnett, Jones, Peterson, Gold.....

[xisxisxis]

I love this deal...... I can't wait to get the Brewers STANK off me......

 

Go Cards!!!

[JohnBriggs12]

Names of guys they passed on who signed with new teams for less money/years (and no draft picks) than Lohse and are now in rotations:

 

Joe Blanton, Angels 2yr/$15 million

 

Kevin Correia, Twins, 2yr/$10 million

 

Scott Feldman, Cubs 1yr/$6 million

 

Jeremy Guthrie, Royals 3yr/$25 million

 

Shawn Marcum, Mets 1yr/$4 million

 

Brandon McCarthy, D-backs, 2yr/$15.5 million

 

Mike Pelfrey, Twins, 1yr/$4 million

 

Joe Saunders, Mariners, 1yr/$6.5 million

 

Carlos Villanueva, Cubs, 2yr/$10 million

 

It's going to be very interesting to see how Lohse does compared to this "value" group as well as the Ryan Dempsters and Edwin Jacksons.

 

I'm disappointed overall in the deal but especially the 3rd year. It's as if their draft strategy of the past 3 years was just thrown out the window.

[Ennder]

They actually could have likely moved Wolf after 2011 had they eaten some of his salary, but we all know it's not been Melvin's nature to move guys that he's given large contracts to, be they home grown or FA.

 

Whatever. We came off a year where we won 96 games and we didn't have any pitching really pushing its way into the big leagues. We can try to blame Melvin for not knowing that after 2 good years he was going to fall apart but it seems kind of silly. I have some issues with Melvin (mostly that he is too aggressive with prospects, doesn't seem able to build a good bench and seems pretty clueless about bullpen guys) but all of this he should have traded every player that ever had a good year and then later had a bad one right before the bad one stuff is just getting out of control lately.

[brwrsfan]

You think Melvin is TOO aggressive with prospects? I think almost the exact opposite is true.

[Ennder]

You think Melvin is TOO aggressive with prospects? I think almost the exact opposite is true.

 

Definitely too aggressive. The Rays and Cardinals do it the right way, the Brewers do it the wrong way.

 

JB I'd rather have Edwin Jackson for sure. I like Lohse more than pretty much the rest of that list though. Of course most of those didn't cost a draft pick either.

[TooLiveBrew]

 

The stupidity of this move is beyond words for me right now. This, folks, is what happens when you play for the "window" and have no long-term plan.

 

Its not that simple, a large factor in winning is being lucky that your picks turn out, because no one has really been able to demonstrate the consistent ability to make good baseball draft picks. The failure rate of the first round picks is huge. So yes in theory you should save up picks and develop a class and bring them up together...but in reality you get Ryan Braun once a generation (or less) so when you have them you have to play for that window. The biggest mistake the Brewers could make would be to not go for it all with future HOFer Ryan Braun in his prime leading the league in dingers. To just assume you should let Braun's prime pass because you will just develop a similar player with enough draft picks in foolish.

The "window" strategy hasn't worked, and will continue to not work. It doesn't work when you can't spend huge in free agency. The changes in strategy that would've been needed would've had to happen several seasons ago. It's too late now, and so we're left clinging to scraps like Lohse.

 

Just because the Brewers are "going for it all" doesn't mean they're doing it in a smart way to make the best use of Braun's prime. One playoff series win is not good enough.

[JohnBriggs12]

Ennder,

 

I just don't like the Brewers doing a 180 from their offseason strategy based on a handful of innings in Arizona. We all know that pitching in Arizona isn't at all indicative of what a guy will do in season. It's almost as if Attanasio got his ESPN the magazine in the mail and panicked when he saw his team picked 4th. They wouldn't give Dempster a 3rd year but they'd give one to Lohse? How does that make sense?

 

Have a plan and stick to it. The great franchises do that but not the Brewers who continue to spend on mediocrity. Melvin should have stood his ground. What is Attanasio doing even talking to Boras anyway?

[Ennder]

I dunno. I've been saying we should have signed a pitcher all off season because it was an obvious need. You can't rely on 5 guys who have never thrown even 150 innings in a season to cover for of the spots in your rotation. I'm not sure this is the signing I'd have done mind you, but the team definitely needed someone. I do agree I'd like this deal a ton more if it were 2 years.

 

Just because the Brewers are "going for it all" doesn't mean they're doing it in a smart way to make the best use of Braun's prime. One playoff series win is not good enough.

 

This is 100% results oriented thinking though. They have gone to the playoffs twice and both times they had legit world series contending rosters late in the season. It is really hard to sell me on that being a failure.

[sheetskout]

You think Melvin is TOO aggressive with prospects? I think almost the exact opposite is true.

 

Definitely too aggressive. The Rays and Cardinals do it the right way, the Brewers do it the wrong way.

 

JB I'd rather have Edwin Jackson for sure. I like Lohse more than pretty much the rest of that list though. Of course most of those didn't cost a draft pick either.

 

 

I'm a little confused by this. Melvin wasn't aggressive with Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Gallardo, Parra, Peralta, Braun, Escobar, Gamel.....

 

....maybe we have different definitions of aggressive, but I'm not able to recall one....

 

(I mean MAYBE you could put Segura in there, but even he had like 1500 AB's in the minors)

[monty57]

Well, it looks like Melvin is trying to open a second window, only this time with less talent, less financial flexibility, and no prospects to trade for upgrades. Oh, and now no first rounder next year to help one of the league's worst farms.

 

For those arguing that Melvin has realized that they don't do well with 1st round picks and player development, wouldn't it be easier and less expensive to simply fire the people in charge of making those picks and doing that development?

 

For those saying we'll be able to trade Lohse for "greater than the first round pick," every team had the opportunity to sign Lohse this offseason, and none of them thought he was worth the first round pick. Why would they give us greater than that value in the future?

 

Ok, but what I mean is does the money have to be used on the draft..period. If you don't sign any early round draft picks can you use the money in the FA market in the off season, or to offer and extension to a current player, or pay off debt, or pocket it, etc?

 

MLB doesn't give the team money, they allow/disallow the team to use its own money. It's done to keep teams from telling potential draftees (and their agents) "tell the teams ahead of us that you won't sign with them, and we'll sign you for twice what they'd offer."

 

You'd think this would be a benefit to the small market clubs, but actually teams like Pittsburgh were effective with this strategy. They knew their MLB team was not going to win, so they put a lot of their resources into signing top players in the draft. Melvin always complained about this, because they weren't going to do it (the Brewers were in their "window" and therefore not putting resources towards the future) and the Brewers were therefore stuck looking for "signability picks," which could explain a lot as to why their minor league system is in shambles and posters here complain about how "unlucky" the Brewers have been in recent drafts.

[Ennder]

I'm a little confused by this. Melvin wasn't aggressive with Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Gallardo, Parra, Peralta, Braun, Escobar, Gamel.

 

Yes I think he was.

 

Fielder spent half a season in the majors while not even playing, that made no sense.

 

Weeks was brought up to put fans in the seats and no other good reason. The team wasn't going to compete and he didn't have a ton of time in the minors yet, he still needed serious work on his fielding and was striking out way too much. On top of that they played him through an injury which made no sense.

 

Hardy skipped started in the majors after missing time with an injury and having all of 120 PA in AAA, again this made no sense.

 

Braun at least came up when we had hopes to compete so at that point it makes more sense.

 

Gamel again burned a ton of his potential sitting on the bench in the majors when he should have been in the minors.

 

Escobar went about the right path through the minors.

 

Peralta should start this year in the minors to work on his command.

 

It is infinitely better to leave a guy in the minors a little longer than you should than to bring them up before you should. Just go look at how the Rays and Cardinals tend to handle their minor league systems and you'll see why. You increase the length they are on your team and they make bigger impacts when they first come up because they are more polished.

[Ennder]

I mostly agree with this article though I like them for a couple more wins than projections even before Lohse.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/brewers-find-starter-lohse-finds-work/

 

 

A year ago, the Brewers won 83 games, and they’re returning most of the same position players. The rotation won’t have Zack Greinke or Shaun Marcum, but it also won’t have Randy Wolf and his near-6 ERA. PECOTA has projected this year’s Brewers for a near-.500 record. CAIRO, too, agrees on the matter. Those are pre-Lohse projections, meaning with Lohse, the Brewers might project as an average team. As you all understand, projections come with big error bars, and contributing to the Brewers’ upside is that Estrada and Fiers are volatile. A year ago they combined for 278 strikeouts and 65 walks in 266 major-league innings. If they out-pitch their projections in 2013, the Brewers could and should be a legitimate contender.

[JohnBriggs12]

I dunno. I've been saying we should have signed a pitcher all off season because it was an obvious need. You can't rely on 5 guys who have never thrown even 150 innings in a season to cover for of the spots in your rotation. I'm not sure this is the signing I'd have done mind you, but the team definitely needed someone. I do agree I'd like this deal a ton more if it were 2 years.

 

Just because the Brewers are "going for it all" doesn't mean they're doing it in a smart way to make the best use of Braun's prime. One playoff series win is not good enough.

 

This is 100% results oriented thinking though. They have gone to the playoffs twice and both times they had legit world series contending rosters late in the season. It is really hard to sell me on that being a failure.

 

Well you were consistent Ennder but the Brewers weren't. They passed on arm after arm and told Marcum to literally take a hike.. I saw what Oakland did last year with a lot less experience going in than the Brewers have this year and figured they could add the needed arm in season. But needing another arm from the beginning was certainly a view that could be backed up as well but it shouldn't have had anything to do with spring training results. Injury, yes. Results in the desert in March, no. I suppose the inaction did drive the price down some if that was their intent.

[sheetskout]

I'm a little confused by this. Melvin wasn't aggressive with Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Gallardo, Parra, Peralta, Braun, Escobar, Gamel.

 

Yes I think he was.

 

Fielder spent half a season in the majors while not even playing, that made no sense.

 

Weeks was brought up to put fans in the seats and no other good reason. The team wasn't going to compete and he didn't have a ton of time in the minors yet, he still needed serious work on his fielding and was striking out way too much. On top of that they played him through an injury which made no sense.

 

Hardy skipped started in the majors after missing time with an injury and having all of 120 PA in AAA, again this made no sense.

 

Braun at least came up when we had hopes to compete so at that point it makes more sense.

 

Gamel again burned a ton of his potential sitting on the bench in the majors when he should have been in the minors.

 

Escobar went about the right path through the minors.

 

Peralta should start this year in the minors to work on his command.

 

It is infinitely better to leave a guy in the minors a little longer than you should than to bring them up before you should. Just go look at how the Rays and Cardinals tend to handle their minor league systems and you'll see why. You increase the length they are on your team and they make bigger impacts when they first come up because they are more polished.

 

I'm not trying to get on you, but at the same time I'm trying to defend Doug. Fielder played four seasons in the minor leagues with over 1600+ AB's. Hardy had over 1200, and yes Rickie was the low one but also played three years in college (750+ MiLB AB's). All three have shown they are all-stars.

 

I'm not saying the Brewers do a better job than the Cards or Rays but they certainly aren't the Tigers.....let's not blame Doug Melvin for mishandling anyone here.