The Kyle Lohse Love/Hate Thread

[sveumrules]

Can someone please explain the "draft bonus money" and how that works, or point me to someplace that explains it? I've been hearing about this in different articles. Is this new? What happens...do teams get bonus money from MLB to use on draft picks?

 

Essentially each draft pick has a corresponding dollar amount. The better the pick the higher amount. Add up the total of each team's picks and that determines their bonus pool. Teams can exceed the bonus pool, but there are penalties for doing so. By losing the 17th pick the Brewers will lose a significant portion of their pool, but I wouldn't be surprised if a Boras guy projected to go higher mysteriously falls to us.

[pogokat]

first off, i wish it was someone other than lohse

 

but seriously, well played doug---i knew this was going to happen since day one, but they waited until the price wasn't insane...the ball was in doug's court from day one, and he played the price down to not rip off level

 

now, i hate losing the pic, but the money is very, very minimal...

 

this beats the heck out of jonathon broxton for three years and 21 million or scott baker for anything higher than 0

[MVP2110]

So, does anyone know if he was on a regime to be ready whatsover? Also, I am not a fan of this deal but man, the last two years have been stellar for him, if we can get anywhere near that for the next two years it's a great signing. I would take a low 4 ERA.

 

He has been pitching upto 90 pitches in simulated games.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

I wouldn't be surprised if a Boras guy projected to go higher mysteriously falls to us.

 

That's not how he works. I don't know why EVERY player isn't one of his clients.

[jerichoholicninja]

thats fine, but you would still boo him if he does good and especially good enough to win a cy young?

 

That's what I said didn't I? He's a crap pitcher.

[markedman5]

Apparently he has been throwing simulated games up to 90 pitches so it sho0uldn't take long for him to be ready. An AL scout saw him at recent game/workout and said he looked "good"...

[3and2Fastball]

It's ok to not go for it every year. Sometimes you can plan for the future.

 

Such as trading Greinke for Jean Segura and a couple of young pitchers?

[brewmann04]

Dont the Brewers have an extra pick after Round 1-2

[Ennder]

Most ERA tools suggest he is about a 4 ERA pitcher. Not a great deal but not an awful one. The big thing is just going to be how he ages. He relies heavily on a sinker that he developed mid 2010 and I think sinkers generally age well.

[brwrsfan]

I guess what it really boils down to is how much of a fluke the last two seasons were for him compared to the previous 8 or so. What are the odds that he can come close to what he did the last two years? If he gets even remotely close, even with some age regression, it's a steal of a deal.

 

Unfortunately, for me personally, I think he's about to explode.

[splitterpfj]

Brewmann, the Brewers have an extra pick after round two, as a result of the "Competitive Balance Lottery."

[TooLiveBrew]

Up until this news, I've felt that although I disagree with Melvin's approach, I don't hate him.

 

It's time for Melvin to go. And if this is Attanasio's work, then the we have a much bigger problem on our hands.

 

The stupidity of this move is beyond words for me right now. This, folks, is what happens when you play for the "window" and have no long-term plan.

[yoshii8]

Hopefully this works out well, then people will stop comparing every free agent to Jeff Suppan. I know he has had an up and down career, but hopefully he can continue to put up close to the same numbers he has the last 2 seasons.

 

Now that we did this, I really hope we bring in a better option to start at first for the beginning of the season.

 

Whoever said they will boo him even if he wins a cy young, I hope I never sit next to you at a Brewer game.

 

.

[razzzorsharp]

That's good news about the 90 pitches. He's a Brewer now, and as a Brewer fan, I hope he does awesome and makes this thread look like it's littered with a bunch of fools (myself included). If he somehow would push us from a 85 win team to a contender on the last day of the year, I would consider that a success.

[Raw Biz]

It's ok to not go for it every year. Sometimes you can plan for the future.

 

Such as trading Greinke for Jean Segura and a couple of young pitchers?

 

That is completely different. The Brewers were already out of it when they traded Greinke. Last year was still a go-for-it-year at the beginning.

[Ennder]

I guess what it really boils down to is how much of a fluke the last two seasons were for him compared to the previous 8 or so. What are the odds that he can come close to what he did the last two years? If he gets even remotely close, even with some age regression, it's a steal of a deal.

 

Unfortunately, for me personally, I think he's about to explode.

 

 

He is not the same pitcher he was those previous 8 years. In 2010 he added a sinker and now he throws that 40% of the time. He used to throw 60% fastballs and it wasn't a very good FB, now he relies almost completely on the sinker. He is a lot like Tim Hudson in his pitching profile. I find that encouraging since Hudson always beats his ERA indicators as well so maybe that is a function of the sinker doing such a good job at suppressing HR. Comparing him to Jeff Suppan is just a show of ignorance though. I'm not very worried about his stats falling apart, his health is definitely something to worry about at ages 34-36 though. That is the part that bothers me.

[Warning Track Power]

I will pray for the average between his 3.11 ERA of the last two years and his career ERA of 4.45. That would give him a 3.78 ERA. Heck I will even take his 5 year ERA with StL of 3.90 and a 1.27 WHIP. Those numbers right there would make him worth the $33 million if he can replicate that for 3 years. Lest we forget Zack Greinke's ERA and WHIP in his 1 1/2 seasons with us were 3.67 & 1.20 and we were offering him $20/m per season.

[brwrsfan]

I guess what it really boils down to is how much of a fluke the last two seasons were for him compared to the previous 8 or so. What are the odds that he can come close to what he did the last two years? If he gets even remotely close, even with some age regression, it's a steal of a deal.

 

Unfortunately, for me personally, I think he's about to explode.

 

 

He is not the same pitcher he was those previous 8 years. In 2010 he added a sinker and now he throws that 40% of the time. He used to throw 60% fastballs and it wasn't a very good FB, now he relies almost completely on the sinker. He is a lot like Tim Hudson in his pitching profile. I find that encouraging since Hudson always beats his ERA indicators as well so maybe that is a function of the sinker doing such a good job at suppressing HR.

 

I hope you're right...I really do. It's just that most pitchers that go from league average to dominating in their early thirties just scream fluke to me. But I really, really hope I'm proven wrong.

[3and2Fastball]

I guess what it really boils down to is how much of a fluke the last two seasons were for him compared to the previous 8 or so. What are the odds that he can come close to what he did the last two years? If he gets even remotely close, even with some age regression, it's a steal of a deal.

.

 

2008 wasn't a bad year for him either, a 112 ERA+ which was actually higher than 2011. He pitched 200 innings in '08 with a 3.78 ERA

[EdgarDiazRocks]

This, folks, is what happens when you play for the "window" and have no long-term plan.

 

They could always make up the draft pick loss with Int'l signings....and before they install the worldwide draft.

[owbc]

He's not a bad pitcher. He was a very good pitcher for the last 400 innings. This is all based on our assumptions that he will be a bad pitcher eventually, hopefully not right away. If he puts up his 2012 numbers again, he's worth $15-20 million just for 2013, especially when you consider that he will be replacing Fiers or a similar replacement-level pitcher.

 

It will be interesting to see what is available in July and at what price. I would have preferred that we go with a rental, although that would have required surrendering at least one prospect. We also might have been sellers ourselves by that point as well.

 

This signing does make me much more excited for 2013, so I hope he does really well and earns his contract.

[Patrick425]

Can someone please explain the "draft bonus money" and how that works, or point me to someplace that explains it? I've been hearing about this in different articles. Is this new? What happens...do teams get bonus money from MLB to use on draft picks?

 

Essentially each draft pick has a corresponding dollar amount. The better the pick the higher amount. Add up the total of each team's picks and that determines their bonus pool. Teams can exceed the bonus pool, but there are penalties for doing so. By losing the 17th pick the Brewers will lose a significant portion of their pool, but I wouldn't be surprised if a Boras guy projected to go higher mysteriously falls to us.

 

Do you have to use the "bonus pool" money for draft picks? If so, then loosing a pick and loosing the money seems to be a wash (don't really need the money if you don't have the pick).

 

Do you realize how silly that sounds?.....He is a Brewer now.....you root for him...especially if he does well.....come on...

 

Nooooooooooo!

 

Lohse is trash. I have never hated a move this team has made since Doug and Mark took over but I hate this. I don't care if Kyle wins a Cy Young this year I will hate him and boo him every chance I get.

 

I will not root for him. He is a crap pitcher who lucked into a couple halfway decent seasons in a row right before free agency. He will be a bigger bust than Suppan, mark my words and I will boo him to the World Series if I have to.

 

Wow, really? With all due respect, do you know how ridiculous that sounds? I get that you don't like the signing, because you believe it will be a bust, but if it turns out not to be a bust and he wins the Cy Young and the Brewers go to the WS, instead of admitting you were wrong you will continue to insist that it was a terrible move and a bust?? C'mon.

[brewmann04]

thanks Splitter so it not to bad ,and if the brewers bomb we could always move Loshe to a contender.

[JimH5]

The Brewers have a fairly poor record with their first round picks. There's no indication this year's pick would have turned into gold.

 

So, reluctantly, I guess I'm on board with the Lohse pick. The money seems about right.

 

If they're out of it at the trading deadline either of the next two years, they can move him for something.

[Ennder]

I hope you're right...I really do. It's just that most pitchers that go from league average to dominating in their early thirties just scream fluke to me. But I really, really hope I'm proven wrong.

 

I expect part of his breakout is for real but not all of it. I don't really enjoy signing any 34 year old pitcher to a 3 year deal though, even if he had been a good pitcher his entire career.