The Kyle Lohse Love/Hate Thread

[logan82]

Without Loshe, this team might have won like one or two fewer games so far, and have a first-round pick in the 2013 draft. That would be awful.

 

Lohse has been the best SP we have this season and can actually get past 6IP. I'd say Lohse is better than Gallardo, and by the end of this season he could very well be the best SP we have on the team, and established himself as our ace or co-ace, and you are honestly going to say it doesn't matter that we have him on our team?

 

Not to mention should we lose him we'd have to find 2 more just like him instead of just 1 to field a competitive team with a depleted farm system.

 

Lohse over this entire season will by that time have had such a positive chain reaction effect on our pitching staff that his 11 million would be well worth it and better than a 1st round pick that would have a 50% chance of working out, or more like a 40% chance knowing our inability to draft well lately, and develop. Top prospects can always be traded for, and lord knows we will have offense to trade.

You really don't realize how much of a waste it is to sign guys who will not make the difference between missing and making the playoffs do you?

[pitchleague]

I find it amusing to see to Lohse getting frustrated with umpires while out on the mound. He's finally seeing that, as a non-Cardinal player, he's not getting the calls that he has the last couple of years. Maybe he's seeing the light that STL is held to a different standard than the Milwaukee Brewers, regardless of any reputation that he might have.

 

Either that or Yadier Molina was THAT good at framing pitches.

[JackNicholson1974]

I think it might be possible that Yadier Molina has more of an affect on Cardinal pitchers success than any other outside factor.

[brewtank34]

Without Loshe, this team might have won like one or two fewer games so far, and have a first-round pick in the 2013 draft. That would be awful.

 

Lohse has been the best SP we have this season and can actually get past 6IP. I'd say Lohse is better than Gallardo, and by the end of this season he could very well be the best SP we have on the team, and established himself as our ace or co-ace, and you are honestly going to say it doesn't matter that we have him on our team?

 

Not to mention should we lose him we'd have to find 2 more just like him instead of just 1 to field a competitive team with a depleted farm system.

 

Lohse over this entire season will by that time have had such a positive chain reaction effect on our pitching staff that his 11 million would be well worth it and better than a 1st round pick that would have a 50% chance of working out, or more like a 40% chance knowing our inability to draft well lately, and develop. Top prospects can always be traded for, and lord knows we will have offense to trade.

You really don't realize how much of a waste it is to sign guys who will not make the difference between missing and making the playoffs do you?

 

This.

If you haven't noticed, we are currently in the middle of a rebuild. It's just that we have players such as Weeks, Hart, Gallardo, Braun on our team. Segura, Gomez, our Pitchers.... we are in rebuild. I'd rather have the draft pick seeing that we weren't going to go to the playoffs anyways this year. Melvin knew it. MA didn't. This one is on MA for not allowing his GM to do his job.

[LouisEly]

You really don't realize how much of a waste it is to sign guys who will not make the difference between missing and making the playoffs do you?

 

I'll phrase my response a little differently. This is only one part of the equation. Bad starting pitching puts stress on other parts of the team, particularly the bullpen. While you can argue that the Brewers don't have a lot of young future stars in the bullpen to protect against burnout or injury, if an increased stress on the bullpen causes some of the relievers to get hurt then it puts the Brewers in a situation where they may have to call up the young guys before they are ready which may hurt their development or cause them to get hurt, which could hurt the franchise just as much if not more than losing a first round draft pick.

 

You're right in the sense that the only difference it may have made in their record is that they may have lost the 4/17 game against the Giants instead of winning it. And if this were a year where the draft was deep and talented, especially in high-upside pitching, I might agree with you. But this is regarded as a weak draft class, and when the Brewers signed Lohse they had no idea Ramirez would get hurt and Weeks/Lucroy/Maldonado/Gonzalez and to an extent Peralta would be as bad as they were.

[logan82]

You really don't realize how much of a waste it is to sign guys who will not make the difference between missing and making the playoffs do you?

 

I'll phrase my response a little differently. This is only one part of the equation. Bad starting pitching puts stress on other parts of the team, particularly the bullpen. While you can argue that the Brewers don't have a lot of young future stars in the bullpen to protect against burnout or injury, if an increased stress on the bullpen causes some of the relievers to get hurt then it puts the Brewers in a situation where they may have to call up the young guys before they are ready which may hurt their development or cause them to get hurt, which could hurt the franchise just as much if not more than losing a first round draft pick.

 

You're right in the sense that the only difference it may have made in their record is that they may have lost the 4/17 game against the Giants instead of winning it. And if this were a year where the draft was deep and talented, especially in high-upside pitching, I might agree with you. But this is regarded as a weak draft class, and when the Brewers signed Lohse they had no idea Ramirez would get hurt and Weeks/Lucroy/Maldonado/Gonzalez and to an extent Peralta would be as bad as they were.

Even if everything broke right we were still a bubble playoff team. The Cards and REds were just that much better than us.

 

As far as worrying about stressing the younger arms, just don't do stupid things with them.

[trwi7]

And if this were a year where the draft was deep and talented, especially in high-upside pitching, I might agree with you. But this is regarded as a weak draft class

 

This never flies with me. So a draft class can be considered weak. That doesn't mean that you can't get a good player at 19 and with the lack of talent in our farm system, we need all the help we can get. We don't need to be signing pitchers in their mid 30s to 3 year deals with 8 figure salaries.

[GB12]

Brewers signed Lohse they had no idea Ramirez would get hurt and Weeks/Lucroy/Maldonado/Gonzalez and to an extent Peralta would be as bad as they were.

They also had no idea Segura and Gomez would be anywhere near as good as they have been. They more than cancel out Weeks and Lucroy. Maldonado and Gonzalez are backups, and it's really not that big of a surprise that neither are hitting

[PrinceFielderx1]

Without Loshe, this team might have won like one or two fewer games so far, and have a first-round pick in the 2013 draft. That would be awful.

 

Lohse has been the best SP we have this season and can actually get past 6IP. I'd say Lohse is better than Gallardo, and by the end of this season he could very well be the best SP we have on the team, and established himself as our ace or co-ace, and you are honestly going to say it doesn't matter that we have him on our team?

 

Not to mention should we lose him we'd have to find 2 more just like him instead of just 1 to field a competitive team with a depleted farm system.

 

Lohse over this entire season will by that time have had such a positive chain reaction effect on our pitching staff that his 11 million would be well worth it and better than a 1st round pick that would have a 50% chance of working out, or more like a 40% chance knowing our inability to draft well lately, and develop. Top prospects can always be traded for, and lord knows we will have offense to trade.

You really don't realize how much of a waste it is to sign guys who will not make the difference between missing and making the playoffs do you?

 

If you are talking about this season you may be right, but if you are talking about next season your likely wrong. I tend to think beyond just this season.

[logan82]

If you don't think people opposed to this signing are looking beyond this season you are not really reading other people's post closely enough. The biggest reason this signing sucks is because of it's repercussions beyond this season. We will not be in a better place next year. I know you think we can trade some offense to get better but I think you are overvaluing our own players.

[brewcrewdue80]

My hate on Lohse and the signing is simply put, he costs us the potential Future face of the franchise. The team had Narveson,Fiers,Thornburg pretty much geared to being at the bottom of the rotation. Burgos should have been in the thoughts of replacing one of them after his success. And we signed Gorzo who when we signed him, I was sure he was going to become that emergency starter, he could have been stretched out when Narveson went down.

 

Someone stating this being one of the worst Starting Pitching ever assembled without Lohse....

Really? So from Worst Ever how much better does Lohse make us? Worst in Majors this season only? Did you see who Colorado had for a Staff last season? Can you name 1 SP on that team? They were so bad they tried a whole new 75pitch limit system no matter how they were doing.

 

I hate the Lohse signing because honestly, no one was geared up to sign him. I'd have waited...and waited maybe until the draft when he was no longer tied to compensation. But let's face it, After Gallardo/Peralta/Estrada's struggles we're clearly out of consideration as a Playoff team aren't we? That's why I hate the signing the most. This season shouldn't be thought of as rebuild, but more of identity. Identifying the SPs who will stick on the ML team. Identifying if this assembled team sans Lohse are competitive to be Playoff contenders. And when the Trade Deadling approached maybe find a SP that can help the team in a playoff push at that moment in time.

There's only what 4OFs stuck in Quad's A-ville? And theres 5SPs in Quad's A-ville? Khris Davis just may have had a nice home in Houston along with Fiers+ let's say for Lucas Harrell. But no, we have Lohse now, no 17th draft pick, and a non-contending team for all of it.

 

Other problems: Hart/Gamel was out before Lohse was signed. No 1b on the roster. Still not solved. ARam was injured and recovering and he should have sat longer than he did. Yet we went ahead with the signing. There should have been more thought put in as to whether the team's current condition due to injuries warranted a Lohse signing because of competitiveness. We weren't a 1st/2nd pick in the Central before the injuries happened. Just saying.

[LouisEly]

And if this were a year where the draft was deep and talented, especially in high-upside pitching, I might agree with you. But this is regarded as a weak draft class

 

This never flies with me. So a draft class can be considered weak. That doesn't mean that you can't get a good player at 19 and with the lack of talent in our farm system, we need all the help we can get. We don't need to be signing pitchers in their mid 30s to 3 year deals with 8 figure salaries.

 

Never? The 2005 draft class is considered to be the best in recent history, and the Yankees drafted a HS player at #17 overall who never made it to AA and was out of baseball by 2009. A first round draft pick is never guaranteed to add talent to an organization.

 

What if the Brewers aren't in contention this year or next year and they trade Lohse for prospects at the 2014 deadline who are as good or better than the #17 overall pick? Will it be worth it then? Many prospects and comp picks were acquired for players who signed as free agents; you don't have to give up any talent to sign free agents.

[PrinceFielderx1]

If you don't think people opposed to this signing are looking beyond this season you are not really reading other people's post closely enough. The biggest reason this signing sucks is because of it's repercussions beyond this season. We will not be in a better place next year. I know you think we can trade some offense to get better but I think you are overvaluing our own players.

 

Our difference comes down to 1 thing, will the Brewers be able to compete next season should they add 2 solid pitchers, dump Weeks and Axford, and find average replacements for those two. I believe it's doable and I also believe they can contend with the best clubs should they do this. You obviously don't. Looking at our offensive players and how well many of them are doing you bet we could trade for that pitching. You are underestimating the Brewers ability come mid-season or in the off-season to trade for pitching should they decide to do so.

 

I'll tell you something else. Many people here and elsewhere didn't think the Brewers had the system or players to trade for Sabathia, Greinke, and Marcum. DM sure ended that debate. I'm not worried about it. I'm about 90-95% sure that Mark A will not rebuild, and he will find away to get the pitching, and they know they have offense to trade.

[trwi7]

Never? The 2005 draft class is considered to be the best in recent history, and the Yankees drafted a HS player at #17 overall who never made it to AA and was out of baseball by 2009.

 

And another excuse that doesn't fly. So because there was a bad pick in the draft in that particular spot in a particular year means the Brewers would make that same choice this year? What if the Yankees drafted Matt Garza in 2005 at 17?

 

What if the Brewers aren't in contention this year or next year and they trade Lohse for prospects at the 2014 deadline who are as good or better than the #17 overall pick? Will it be worth it then? Many prospects and comp picks were acquired for players who signed as free agents; you don't have to give up any talent to sign free agents.

 

Nobody wanted to give up their pick for him this year. What makes you think teams will want to give up as much or more value a year from now when he's older, more expensive and probably a worse pitcher?

[LouisEly]

And another excuse that doesn't fly. So because there was a bad pick in the draft in that particular spot in a particular year means the Brewers would make that same choice this year? What if the Yankees drafted Matt Garza in 2005 at 17?

 

What if the Yankees had drafted Cesar Carrillo, Mark Pawelek, Aaron Thompson, Craig Hansen, Jacob Marceaux, Matt Torra, Chaz Roe, Johnny Drennen, Ryan Tucker, Trevor Bell, Eli Org, Hank Sanchez, Luke Hochevar (who didn't sign that year), Beau Jones, Mark McCormick, Sean West, or Tyler Herron? Those first round draft picks that year didn't do a darn thing either.

 

Nobody wanted to give up their pick for him this year. What makes you think teams will want to give up as much or more value a year from now when he's older, more expensive and probably a worse pitcher?

 

Being in contention for a playoff spot in late July and needing starting pitching and knowing that Lohse won't be a 3-month rental because he's signed for the next year? Being in contention for a playoff spot in August when Lohse can likely get through waivers and needing starting pitching?

 

I'm not saying they can get the haul that they got for Greinke; but one of Segura or Hellweg (or even Pena the way he has pitched the last 3 weeks) is greater than any of the above mentioned 2005 1st round draft picks.

[trwi7]

What if the Yankees had drafted Cesar Carrillo, Mark Pawelek, Aaron Thompson, Craig Hansen, Jacob Marceaux, Matt Torra, Chaz Roe, Johnny Drennen, Ryan Tucker, Trevor Bell, Eli Org, Hank Sanchez, Luke Hochevar (who didn't sign that year), Beau Jones, Mark McCormick, Sean West, or Tyler Herron? Those first round draft picks that year didn't do a darn thing either.

 

Congratulations. You named a bunch of busts. Would you like it if I went through the 2005 draft and listed all the quality players drafted after 17?

 

Being in contention for a playoff spot in late July and needing starting pitching and knowing that Lohse won't be a 3-month rental because he's signed for the next year? Being in contention for a playoff spot in August when Lohse can likely get through waivers and needing starting pitching?

 

I'm not saying they can get the haul that they got for Greinke; but one of Segura or Hellweg (or even Pena the way he has pitched the last 3 weeks) is greater than any of the above mentioned 2005 1st round draft picks.

 

Yes teams in contention would likely trade for Lohse. They aren't going to give up anything to get him imo. Too much risk. Too old of a pitcher, too expensive and just not good enough to garner a Segura or even a Hellweg or a Pena. We'd probably get salary relief and maybe a mid level prospect that might turn into a reliever or utility player.

[monty57]

Nobody wanted to give up their pick for him this year. What makes you think teams will want to give up as much or more value a year from now when he's older, more expensive and probably a worse pitcher?

 

Agree. Right now, we probably couldn't get close to the perceived value of a first round pick. By this time next year, we probably won't be able to get someone to take on his remaining contract in a salary dump. By his age 36 season, I'd be surprised if he's still an MLB-caliber starting pitcher.

 

Our difference comes down to 1 thing, will the Brewers be able to compete next season should they add 2 solid pitchers, dump Weeks and Axford, and find average replacements for those two. I believe it's doable

 

We owe Weeks his salary for next year and no one is going to take that on. He's either going to be our 2B, sit on the bench, or get cut, but we'll have to pay him. We could get rid of Axford's salary by not offering him arby if we're willing to let him become a free agent, and I think that's looking likely. However, Ramirez, Lohse and others have big salary bumps next year which more than make up for the money we save with loss of Hart and Axford.

 

Have you looked at the Brewers' 2014 contract obligations? Even if we let Axford go, we'd need about 18 pre-arby guys on the roster to keep the payroll below $100MM. There's no way we'll be able to "add two solid pitchers" unless those two solid pitchers are pre-arby guys. The only pitcher in our system that is pitching like someone who may want a job with the Brewers next year is sitting in AA, so it's not looking really promising that we will add two solid SP rookies from our farm.

 

Looking at our offensive players and how well many of them are doing you bet we could trade for that pitching.

 

Many posters here have been begging for us to trade some vets for young players for quite a while. We're always greeted with "we can't trade {enter player name here} when we're going for it." I'm glad you're coming on board with the concept that trading away a vet does not necessarily mean we're giving up. However, let's look at where we're at instead of simply saying "I believe we could do it."

 

The aggregate moves we've made over the past handful of seasons (including the Lohse signing) have left us in a precarious position. We don't have quality in-house replacement for most of the guys we could trade, so the concept of trading someone from the MLB roster for another player to put on the MLB roster would generally have us seriously downgrading one position in order to moderately upgrade another... you don't generally want to make those trades.

 

Sure, we could trade Segura or Braun for good MLB starting pitching, but where would that leave us? Gomez just signed, so Melvin won't trade him. Ramirez is owed $20MM next year and has a bad knee, so he's not bringing anything back. Lucroy and Maldonado are hitting like little leaguers, and no one is trading for Weeks. Meanwhile, no one is giving up a top-of-the-rotation starter for any of our minor leaguers.

 

Aoki might bring back something, and is probably the best chance for a trade, as we do have Davis, Schafer and Gindl waiting in the wings. The question is, should we look to trade Aoki for a "proven vet," or for a young "unproven" guy? In your scenario (going for it), we would likely target a "proven" vet with limited team control remaining.

 

So, if Attanasio still hasn't reached the acceptance phase by next season, and insists on "going for it," we won't be able to do it by throwing money at the problem (we've got too many obligations already). We won't be able to trade Ramirez, Lohse or Weeks, and we won't trade Braun, Segura, Gallardo or Gomez. Therefore, the only real move I'd see would be to trade Aoki and someone like Nelson (our only near MLB-ready minor leaguer doing anything) for two years of a slightly above average veteran SP.

 

In this scenario, we'd basically have this year's team minus Aoki and Hart, plus some middle-of-the-rotation vet SP. Everyone would be a year older, which may be good for Peralta and Segura, but not for Lohse, Ramirez, Weeks and anyone else on the other side of 30. We'd have a payroll north of $100MM, but I don't see us as a playoff contender. Rather, I think we'd be odds-on favorite to take last in the NL Central. All this would be is another move that increases the likelihood that we will need a major rebuild, and make that rebuild a little more painful when it hits.

 

Unfortunately, I could see us doing this. It keeps the perception among fans that we still have a playoff caliber team. That perception breeds hope, and hope sells tickets. It seems that teams who choose to play the "window" strategy generally continue to live on hope for a while after the window has closed before they finally accept that the natural progression of playing the "window" strategy is that it leads to either a rebuild or a long period of "meh" baseball. Personally, I'd prefer a rebuild where we bring in a bunch of young, talented players to a decade+ of bringing in the next Kyle Lohse in an attempt to crack .500.

[trwi7]

Andrew Gruman‏@AndrewGruman32m

Kyle Lohse won't start Saturday with elbow irritation. Mike Fiers will start against Pittsburgh instead. #Brewers

 

Andrew Gruman‏@AndrewGruman8m

Ron Roenicke is hopeful that it's just one start for Lohse. Says he's penciled in to start next Thursday in Minnesota.

[pebadger]

Andrew Gruman‏@AndrewGruman32m

Kyle Lohse won't start Saturday with elbow irritation. Mike Fiers will start against Pittsburgh instead. #Brewers

 

Andrew Gruman‏@AndrewGruman8m

Ron Roenicke is hopeful that it's just one start for Lohse. Says he's penciled in to start next Thursday in Minnesota.

 

ESPN just echoed this earlier report as well.

[TheCrew07]

Never? The 2005 draft class is considered to be the best in recent history, and the Yankees drafted a HS player at #17 overall who never made it to AA and was out of baseball by 2009. A first round draft pick is never guaranteed to add talent to an organization.

 

What if the Brewers aren't in contention this year or next year and they trade Lohse for prospects at the 2014 deadline who are as good or better than the #17 overall pick? Will it be worth it then? Many prospects and comp picks were acquired for players who signed as free agents; you don't have to give up any talent to sign free agents.

 

This is the type of rationale which I just have a very hard time getting behind. So because the draft is considered “weak” by some measure (who’s measure by the way?) it’s okay to have no chance at an impact player we desperately as an organization? How is nothing better than the possibility of something? I happen to think the top of this draft is pretty strong.

 

I too will always take prospects over draft picks, but you are severely over valuing Lohse if you think an aging control pitcher with a backloaded deal and deferred money is going to net any kind of return. I’d be happy to just get out from under the rest of his contract if he’s going to be traded.

The problem with the Lohse signing hasn’t changed since it was first discussed. What value does he bring to a team that’s likely not a playoff contender from the start? Regardless of what he does as a pitcher why is the extra payroll tied into him plus the loss of a draft pick a good idea to finish in 3rd or 4th place? It was purely a win now/PR move which many posters correctly view as wasting resources.

 

Playing your “what if” game, what if Lohse gets hurt, then what? What if all of sudden he isn’t able to locate anymore and becomes ineffective? Now that Lohse is signed I’m on board with trying to get the best possible value out of his signing but the issue really is why even sign him in the first place? The Brewers can keep this cycle of mediocrity going as long as they want but history has proven that signing aging veterans to anchor the rotation hasn’t worked out at all, we continually have the same pitching issues and sacrificing draft picks doesn’t do anything to help right that ship.

 

Maybe if we were players in the international market the slack could be made up but we aren’t, the Brewers haven’t been linked to anyone of note last year or so far this year. To sustain the MLB team from within we need a large talent base to draw from and by giving away draft picks and playing it conservatively internationally all the organization has done is continually limit their long-term options. We should be leaving no stone unturned looking for talent, instead Milwaukee has continually focused monetary resources where you get the least return on the dollar; signing the never ending stream of aging control pitchers to 3+ year deals.

 

I’ve never really understood why people don’t have a problem blowing $10,000,000 on Gagne or $8,000,000 on Wolf but will vehemently argue that spending first or second round slot money on international prospects is a waste because they might fail. Why is the failure/flameout rate of “proven veterans” largely ignored by so many? I’d much rather make a mistake with $500k to $1.5 mil per player on a handful of international/domestic prospects than waste 4 times that much for a single season of any declining veteran. If Braun were to get hurt right now, sure the dead money would stink, but at least there’s a reasonable expectation he’ll come back and perform at a similar level. When your reasonable expectation is for a player’s value to decline over the length of the contract maybe that money would be better spent elsewhere?

[LouisEly]

The problem with the Lohse signing hasn’t changed since it was first discussed. What value does he bring to a team that’s likely not a playoff contender from the start?

 

If the Brewers hadn't gone 36-23 last August and September with pretty much the same roster of players (except Hart, but no Wolf/Hernandez/Parra/Loe either) then I would probably agree with you. With Lohse stepping in for Marcum and Gorzelanny/Gonzalez/Badenhop replacing Hernandez/Parra/Loe the Brewers had as many reasons to think they could compete this year as reasons to think they couldn't.

 

The value that Lohse brings is evident in today's game. If you have starters that can't make it to the 4th inning much less the 6th it puts a tremendous amount of stress on the bullpen. Someone has to pitch those innings - this isn't the 2001 All-Star game where one team can quit and end the game if you run out of pitchers - and if you keep trotting out your Livan Hernandez type below replacement level journeymen to mop up night after night after starters who can't get past the 3rd inning because you think that spending money on free agent pitching doesn't matter then fans are going to stop coming to the games and you won't have the revenue to sign international talent and/or extend the young players on the team.

 

The Brewers are already ~120K fewer fans in attendance this year than last year. Factoring in tickets, food/beverage, merchandise, and parking at an average of $50/fan/game that's already $6M in less revenue right there. Fans may have already purchased tickets, but if they don't show up that is lost revenue for parking/concessions/merchandise (how much profit do you think they pull in per year selling 16 oz tap beers for $8/9 that costs them maybe 50 cents per cup). The Brewers are averaging 5,000 fewer fans per game this year - over the course of 81 home games at $50/fan/game that amounts to over $20,000,000 less revenue this year than last year. If having terrible starting pitching causes an additional 3000 fewer fans to attend each game that equals Lohse's salary of $12M. If the Brewers draw 2M fans this year instead of the 2.8M they did last year because of poor starting pitching, that's $40,000,000 less in revenue.

 

The money to sign international talent and extend young talent comes from attendance and people who want to see a good product on the field. You're right in that a team needs to be wise in what players it invests in, but putting a poor product on the field can cost a team more in revenue than it can save.

[Roderick]

... if you think an aging control pitcher with a backloaded deal and deferred money is going to net any kind of return.

 

I wouldn't call $11M each of the next two seasons as backloaded. As for the deferred part, that is strictly earned in 2013. So assuming a trade, something would be figured out between the Brewers and the other team so that they aren't prorating something to be paid out three years from now - that isn't a big deal. And, yes, in my opinion his contract has a net positive value right now, he has pitched pretty well just hasn't had any support.

[DocLuna7]

Andrew Gruman‏@AndrewGruman32m

Kyle Lohse won't start Saturday with elbow irritation. Mike Fiers will start against Pittsburgh instead. #Brewers

 

Andrew Gruman‏@AndrewGruman8m

Ron Roenicke is hopeful that it's just one start for Lohse. Says he's penciled in to start next Thursday in Minnesota.

 

ESPN just echoed this earlier report as well.

 

If I was RR I would be leery of any pitcher having elbow issues and coming back after missing one start. It seems prudent to DL him, have him miss a couple of starts instead of rushing him back, and make a corresponding roster move that could be useful over that time.

[monty57]

The Brewers are already ~120K fewer fans in attendance this year than last year. Factoring in tickets, food/beverage, merchandise, and parking at an average of $50/fan/game that's already $6M in less revenue right there. Fans may have already purchased tickets, but if they don't show up that is lost revenue for parking/concessions/merchandise (how much profit do you think they pull in per year selling 16 oz tap beers for $8/9 that costs them maybe 50 cents per cup). The Brewers are averaging 5,000 fewer fans per game this year - over the course of 81 home games at $50/fan/game that amounts to over $20,000,000 less revenue this year than last year. If having terrible starting pitching causes an additional 3000 fewer fans to attend each game that equals Lohse's salary of $12M. If the Brewers draw 2M fans this year instead of the 2.8M they did last year because of poor starting pitching, that's $40,000,000 less in revenue.

 

Aren't you kind of defeating your own argument? Lohse was signed, so his signing didn't keep the attendance from falling, but it does add to the pile of guaranteed obligations Melvin has amassed, which will pretty much necessitate a $100MM payroll next year.

 

The "strategy" is backfiring on Attanasio and Melvin. Signing, extending and trading for aging vets to eight figure salaries was supposed to assure that fans would flock to the stadium, allowing them to continue to be able to pay for all the guaranteed eight figure salaries they were amassing. They failed understand that spending money on guaranteed contracts to "name" players didn't guarantee success.

 

Attendance can drop whether you're guaranteeing $100MM in contracts or not. But, with the big money, guaranteed obligations, you're in a lot more trouble when the attendance drops than you are if you have more pre-arby/arby guys on the roster. Melvin/Attanasio have built the ship they're sailing. They are the reason the entire system is filled with the players we have. The moves they've made are the reason we have an aging, expensive MLB team and a weak farm.

 

Now that we're here and the rosters are set along with the guaranteed liabilities attached to them, what are we going to do to solve this? I've harped on this for a while, but Melvin/Attanasio have over-leveraged themselves to a point that a drop in revenue will really hurt. If attendence drops, what do they do? They can borrow money to get over the hump, but that adds another future liability which will have negative impact on the future. Or, they can start selling off the expensive pieces that still have value, which also bears risk of alienating the fans who haven't already jumped ship.

 

The strategy they've implemented to get where we are is a bad one. No business can succeed by living for the present at the expense of the future. We're not doomed, but Melvin and Attanasio really need to pull their heads out of the sand and change tack soon. Maybe the horrific start to this season will be the wake-up call they need. Maybe the empty seats will do it. Whatever the impetus, I hope it happens.

 

I wouldn't call $11M each of the next two seasons as backloaded. As for the deferred part, that is strictly earned in 2013. So assuming a trade, something would be figured out between the Brewers and the other team so that they aren't prorating something to be paid out three years from now - that isn't a big deal.

 

The Brewers haven't spent the money, so it is a future liability, meaning it has negative value in a trade. It would need to be negotiated in the trade, giving leverage to the team the Brewers are negotiating with.

 

Before the "elbow irritation," I didn't think we'd get much for Lohse in trade. Now I doubt we'd get anything, as I couldn't see a GM taking on a three year guaranteed obligation for a 34-year-old with potential elbow issues who isn't that good a pitcher to begin with.

[Outlander]

As much as I didn't like the signing of Lohse I hope that he comes back soon. Usually it is kind of exciting to see a young pitcher for a start or two but man looking at the Sounds starting pitching I really don't want to see anybody up in Milwaukee. Even Hellweg, who you hear good things about every once in a while, obviously needs work still and isn't ready for the big leagues. Thornburg, who created some buzz last summer when called up seems to get shelled every outing. It can be tough to watch Brewers games at times this year but the people of Nashville have a really terrible team down there.