The Kyle Lohse Love/Hate Thread

[Ennder]

There are a lot of sneaky reasons that Lohse is better than the Suppan on top of the obviously just better peripherals.

 

1) He doesn't walk anyone which hides his strike out rate a bit. His K% is around 14-16%. Suppan was at a 12-13% as a Cardinal. His BB% is only 4-5% while Suppan was 7-8%. These don't look as big when you just look at totals but they are pretty huge when you look at rates.

2) He gets ahead of hitters. His first pitch strike% sits at around 68% while Suppan mostly lived at 60%.

3) He doesn't have many bad starts. He had 10% disasters in 2011 and didn't have a single disaster start in 2012. 10% is a pretty elite number.

4) He doesn't have a split since he developed the sinker. This is absolutely a huge advantage especially in a park that inflates lefties like Miller park. Lefties really killed Suppan.

[splitterpfj]

We've got about 90 starts left before we'll know for sure, but after the first three, I don't think I want to hear anymore about Suppan and Looper...Lohse can pitch.

[trwi7]

Suppan's first 3 starts - 19.1 IP, 3.72 ERA

 

Looper's first 3 starts - 17 IP, 2.12 ERA

[danzig6767]

We've got about 90 starts left before we'll know for sure, but after the first three, I don't think I want to hear anymore about Suppan and Looper...Lohse can pitch.

 

Watching Lohse pitch so far in his three starts, i can see why he had so much success the last two years with the Cardinals. He doesn't throw above 91-92, but his command really is fabulous. Almost every fastball/sinker is on the corners be it outside or inside, and he has a plus changeup which he also commands well.

 

If Peralta had command like that, he'd win a CY Young award. The Giants didn't square up on any pitch tonight except for the early liner to Weeks and i don't recall a bunch of hard hit outs in his first two starts, something Suppan often needed to get passed say five innings without giving up four runs or more.

[danzig6767]

Suppan's first 3 starts - 19.1 IP, 3.72 ERA

 

Looper's first 3 starts - 17 IP, 2.12 ERA

 

Do you honestly expect Lohse to end up having terrible season's like Suppan and Looper, because i don't?

 

Granted, i wouldn't expect a sub-3 ERA again as he had last season, but watching him pitch it's not that hard to see why he had the back to back years he had for the Cardinals.

 

I'm not saying Lohse will end up being as good as Sheets was, but Ben was the last Brewers starter i can recall having the type of command of his pitches by consistently hitting the corners and not allowing free baserunners via walks.

[trwi7]

Right because pitchers in their mid 30's never fall off a cliff. He will be good for sure all 3 years.

[brewmann04]

So far very impressed with Loshe good pickup.

[MNBrew]

Right because pitchers in their mid 30's never fall off a cliff. He will be good for sure all 3 years.

Some don't. Suppan & Wolf -- the only 2 like that we've signed -- just happened to. That they happened to has no bearing on Lohse, & at the same time, tere's no guarantee Lohse will -- or won't.

 

But you can't argue that Lohse made 3 (very much-needed) solid starts so far, and that's encouraging.

[dlk9s]

jerichoholicninja update: Still hates Lohse.

[splitterpfj]

I expect the third year of the deal to be a loss, when you fill holes through free agency, you almost always have dead money on the back end of the deal. If Lohse gets hurt, then he does, since I have no control over that, I'm going to hope for the best, and watch a good pitcher pitch.

[rluzinski]

Right because pitchers in their mid 30's never fall off a cliff. He will be good for sure all 3 years.

 

Pardon me for not reading back but did someone really argue that he has a 100% chance of being good for 3 years or are you arguing against a strawman?

 

Every year, pitchers lose velocity and as a result, effectiveness. I don't believe any aging curve suggests batters or pitchers should be expected to just fall apart, however. It happens, sure, but on average, they just fade each year.

[jerichoholicninja]

jerichoholicninja update: Still hates Lohse.

 

He may slowly be converting me but I still don't like the signing. The money and first round pick would better serve the franchise than 3 seasons of Lohse.

[trwi7]

Right because pitchers in their mid 30's never fall off a cliff. He will be good for sure all 3 years.

 

Pardon me for not reading back but did someone really argue that he has a 100% chance of being good for 3 years or are you arguing against a strawman?

 

Every year, pitchers lose velocity and as a result, effectiveness. I don't believe any aging curve suggests batters or pitchers should be expected to just fall apart, however. It happens, sure, but on average, they just fade each year.

 

Do you honestly expect Lohse to end up having terrible season's like Suppan and Looper, because i don't?

 

That's what I quoted.

 

And to be clear I never said he was going to fall apart but when splitter says he doesn't want to hear any more about Suppan or Looper after 3 starts, it looks pretty ridiculous so I went back and looked and Suppan and Looper both had 3 pretty good starts to start their Brewers career too.

[Ennder]

Lohse is a much much better pitcher than Suppan or Looper were even in their best years. I do expect his production to tail off with age but we are talking apples and oranges here when you compare these guys.

[splitterpfj]

Sorry it look ridiculous to you, it looks equally ridiculous to me when anyone compares Lohse to either guy.

 

I said what I said about Lohse's three starts, because he's looked good, and that happens to be the point we're at right now. In my opinion, neither Suppan nor Looper ever did anything like Lohse's last two seasons before the Brewers signed them.

 

If the Brewers had signed Suppan to a smaller deal, I wouldn't have minded it at the time, but I also wouldn't have expected him to be a big deal, just a spot filler in the rotation. Looper...I never expected a thing out of, that one looked like a desperation move to me when it was done.

 

I don't expect Lohse to ever lead the world in anything while he's a Brewer, I just think he's better than a lot of people think, and I don't think he should be compared to either of the other former Cardinals.

[danzig6767]

Sorry it look ridiculous to you, it looks equally ridiculous to me when anyone compares Lohse to either guy.

 

That's been my only issue when many of those who hated the Lohse signing would argue why, and often Suppan's name would get thrown in as Lohse was supposedly going to be Suppan 2.0.

 

I was leery of the signing mainly because of the draft pick and the third year didn't involve some sort of team option/buyout or Lohse needing to meet certain types of criteria.

 

Just because he doesn't throw mid to high 90's though and is over age 30, that doesn't automatically mean he's a Suppan clone given Suppan never had seasons like Lohse did the last two years. Lohse gave up fewer hits per inning in his last two years, issued fewer walks, and gave up fewer homers than in Suppan's prior two years before signing here.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Right because pitchers in their mid 30's never fall off a cliff. He will be good for sure all 3 years.

 

He only needs to be good for 2 for the contract to be a success.

[SoupTown]

I am happy that my wine induced statement of 'we have a #1 or #2 guy for $11 mill' is the winner over the 'meh, he is a 4 or 5 guy'

 

I am looking forward to giving up the #1 pick next year at the end of spring training for the next 'hard done by', Boras client. It seems to me the 'qualifying offer', friendless free agent is the new, new, new Moneyball.

 

We can have production for 2 to 4 years at a good price, or we can waste a couple million on a project from Greenland. I trust much more a couple years of a real baseball player vs the next dumb 1st round draft pick the Crew can work out.

[Raw Biz]

Add me to those who hated the deal more because of the loss of draft pick than because of Lohse himself. Sure I don't think Lohse will repeat his past 2 years but I also don't see him as a 5+ ERA guy either. He's a pretty decent pitcher. And he would most likely help this year and probably next. But I didn't see him as the missing link either in being a WS contender so I thought the draft pick was more valuable. But I will definitely cheer for him and enjoy watching him pitch.

[Outlander]

Sorry it look ridiculous to you, it looks equally ridiculous to me when anyone compares Lohse to either guy.

From baseball reference, most similar to Jeff Suppan by age, just saying:

22.Willard Nixon (987) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

23.Sean O'Sullivan (981) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

24.Frankie Rodriguez (979) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

25.Chris Carpenter (976) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

26.Daniel Cabrera (968) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

27.Kyle Lohse (965) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

28.Kyle Lohse (980) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

29.Kyle Lohse (976) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

30.Jason Marquis (960) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

31.Jaime Navarro (978) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

32.Jaime Navarro (978) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

33.Scott Erickson (943) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

34.Scott Erickson (948) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

35.Steve Trachsel (944) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

37.Scott Erickson (949) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C

[sveumrules]

Sure, Suppan from 27-29 may have been similar to Lohse from ages 27-29, but that comparison doesn't really mean anything since the Suppan most Brewers fans remember is the age 32-35 version and the Kyle Lohse currently employed by the team has an entirely different repertoire, which he has used to produce markedly better results than the 27-29 year old version of himself.

[Outlander]

He could revert back for whatever reason and the last couple years could be a fluke. Suppan still resembled Lohse more than any other pitcher in history for three years.

[monty57]

Right because pitchers in their mid 30's never fall off a cliff. He will be good for sure all 3 years.

 

Pardon me for not reading back but did someone really argue that he has a 100% chance of being good for 3 years or are you arguing against a strawman?

 

Every year, pitchers lose velocity and as a result, effectiveness. I don't believe any aging curve suggests batters or pitchers should be expected to just fall apart, however. It happens, sure, but on average, they just fade each year.

 

Every year, there are only a handful of starting pitchers age 36 or above, and they're often names like Greg Maddux or Randy Johnson. Because the sample set is so small, and that small sample is filled with freak of nature, Hall of Fame types, I doubt there's any way to get any statistically accurate reading of how age into the mid-30's affects SP other than to see when they retire.

 

No scientific study done here, but by simply looking back the past 20 years or so (which even includes steroid-aided arms), it really looks like most pitchers are either retired or no longer starting by the time they are Lohse's current age (34), and almost none make it to 36, the age he'll be in the final year of the contract (turns 37 at the end of his final year).

 

Right now, out of the 150 SP jobs in baseball, 17 are 34 or older, and seven (Pettitte, Hudson, Burnett, Kuroda, Colon, Arroyo and Dickey) are 36 or over. Signing starting pitchers through their mid-30's is kind of expecting to defy nature.

[logan82]

Add me to those who hated the deal more because of the loss of draft pick than because of Lohse himself. Sure I don't think Lohse will repeat his past 2 years but I also don't see him as a 5+ ERA guy either. He's a pretty decent pitcher. And he would most likely help this year and probably next. But I didn't see him as the missing link either in being a WS contender so I thought the draft pick was more valuable. But I will definitely cheer for him and enjoy watching him pitch.

I especially agree with the bolded part.

[sveumrules]

He could revert back for whatever reason and the last couple years could be a fluke. Suppan still resembled Lohse more than any other pitcher in history for three years.

 

So Jeff Suppan's results from 2002-04 are most similar to Kyle Lohse's results from 2006-08, but what does that really tell us about Kyle Lohse in 2013? If we're trying to find comparables for Lohse it seems more recent information would be a lot more telling or indicative of his future performance than would his stats from 5-7 years ago when he was a completely different pitcher.

 

Over the last 2 years, since overhauling his repertoire, Lohse has pitched to a 5.72 k/9 with a 1.80 bb/9 and a 0.79 hr/9. Here are some pitchers that have put up similar rates over the last two seasons...

 

Jordan Zimmermann 6.98 1.87 0.76

Jake Peavy 7.87 1.99 1.01

Tim Hudson 5.94 2.38 0.59

Rick Porcello 5.36 2.26 0.85

Mark Buehrle 5.17 1.88 1.04

 

Jeff Suppan (career) 4.92 3.08 1.19