The Kyle Lohse Love/Hate Thread

[Thurston Fluff]

This is probably convoluted thinking but if his production the next two years are anywhere close to the past two I think he's worth $30 million for two years. So, total package wise, the third season isn't that big a risk when considering the relative value the first two could be.

[Ennder]

In the past five years, I can't really think of anyone who was aggressively promoted, except for Segura. But that was basically because the season was thought lost and Melvin wanted something to show the fans.

 

Lucroy had 91 PA in AAA as a recent example. He was brought up despite having a lot of issues with his defense still and he wasn't exactly killing it at AAA.

 

Aggressive doesn't always mean young either. If they show that they may be ready we tend to bring them up while a team like the Cardinals will keep them down while they work on their last problems. The Twins, Rays, Cardinals are all known for giving their young guys extra time in the minors to work on the little things even if they are ready in some areas.

 

It is part of their win now mentality. If Melvin thinks a prospect can help them win now he will trade them or bring them up and not worry about the later which is the same general concept that others are complaining about, just this is the area I don't like how he does it the most.

[MVP2110]

In the past five years, I can't really think of anyone who was aggressively promoted, except for Segura. But that was basically because the season was thought lost and Melvin wanted something to show the fans.

 

Lucroy had 91 PA in AAA as a recent example. He was brought up despite having a lot of issues with his defense still and he wasn't exactly killing it at AAA.

 

.

Lucroy was only brought up however because Zaun got a career ending injury. The plan was not for Lucroy to come up and play everyday. who should he have brought up instead?

[Raw Biz]

In the past five years, I can't really think of anyone who was aggressively promoted, except for Segura. But that was basically because the season was thought lost and Melvin wanted something to show the fans.

 

If Melvin thinks a prospect can help them win now he will trade them or bring them up and not worry about the later which is the same general concept that others are complaining about, just this is the area I don't like how he does it the most.

 

I'll give you the fact that he doesn't plan for the future very well. However, Green, Gamel, and quite a few other guys were probably in a position to help them yet they never got the call. When Green was tearing it up and we had Felipe Lopez 2.0 comes to mind.

[monty57]

Melvin is very aggressive with his prospects, he's aggressive in trading them for major league talent and he's aggressive at promoting them. Obviously you don't like that but it is how he is.

 

You keep saying this but that doesn't make it true. It may have been true in the past with Weeks/Hardy but that's about it. Fielder was obviously going to be a stud. He was brought up to DH and get some PH appearances but I don't think he was rushed. Braun was a stud as well and obviously wasn't rushed. In the past five years, I can't really think of anyone who was aggressively promoted, except for Segura. But that was basically because the season was thought lost and Melvin wanted something to show the fans.

 

I think the signing of Lohse shows that Melvin isn't aggressive with prospects since Peralta will probably be sent to AAA. You might argue that he's not ready but if someone is aggressive like you say, whether or not he's ready wouldn't matter.

 

Agree. Most of the Brewers' prospects aren't on pace to reach the majors until their mid-20's (if at all). Contrary to other parts of Ennder's quote, I don't think the Brewers' system is considered bad by scouts is because our prospects are young, it's because they're old. Most guys on the top 100 lists are under 23. Stud prospects should hit the majors when they're 21 or 22. Most of our guys seem to be in AA at 23 and AAA from 24-30. Fiers will be 28 soon, Rogers is 27, and Thornburg (who started last year at AA) is 24. None of them were young when they arrived in the majors last year, and they were only brought on because of injuries, ineptitude and trade. Had Greinke, Marcum and Wolf pitched well, and the team done better, none of those guys would've seen the light of day.

 

Of course, I really don't think it's so much that Melvin is aggressive or not with the prospects. I think it's just that they've done a really, really bad job of getting good prospects into the system. Most of our guys don't project to be good, everyday players, so it's probably not a bad thing that they sit in the minors until they're in their prime, where we can hopefully get something out of their best years.

 

Peralta's the exception, in that he's 23 and could soon have a full-time job in the majors (although he'll probably be 24 before he gets called back up). That's probably because he's one of the few that could be an average-to-above-average MLB player. Hopefully some of the guys from last year's draft will follow suit, but it's too early to say. There are multiple reasons we have a bad farm, but I think Melvin's insistance on getting "signability" picks is certainly one of the big reasons we don't have any top prospects, and I think it's telling that the first year under the new CBA, was the first year we finally selected some high upside guys we can get excited about.

 

Regarding Lohse, it's another case of signing an expensive vet who will "block" younger players. It's a common theme with Melvin. The merit of each case can be looked at individually and argued until everyone's blue in the face, but the bottom line is that Melvin will often sign expensive veterans (or extend guys who are almost free agents to market value deals) rather than letting prospects play. I don't think this is because he no longer trusts any prospects, it's just that he doesn't trust the prospects he has assembled.

 

In just the recent past, he's signed a 3B because we didn't have any in the system, traded for a SS because we didn't have any in the system, extended our CF because we don't have any in the system, extended our 2B because we don't have any in the system and now brought in another SP (supposedly our farm's strong point) because we don't have any capable starters in the system and everyone was worried about going into the season with "four #4/5's." He also rebuilt our bullpen mainly from outside the organization because we didn't have enough arms in the system. Meanwhile, we're starting a backup SS at 1B because we don't trust out top hitting prospect and "minor league player of the year" to play for a month (he's 24).

 

If somehow that screams "strong farm system" or "aggressive approach" to you, I don't know what to say. Melvin was aggressive when he first came on because he wanted to put fans in the seats and he inherited a strong farm system and good director. He hasn't been aggressive with prospects since Braun came up.

[Ennder]

I'll give you the fact that he doesn't plan for the future very well. However, Green, Gamel, and quite a few other guys were probably in a position to help them yet they never got the call. When Green was tearing it up and we had Felipe Lopez 2.0 comes to mind

 

Gamel came up and rotted on the bench when he should have been working on his defense in AAA. Green just isn't a major league quality player and I think they identified that properly.

 

I don't think the Brewers' system is considered bad by scouts is because our prospects are young, it's because they're old

 

It is a mix of both. We have all of the older prospects that weren't good enough to be parts of our big trades and then we have a bunch of younger guys who are in the low levels still. Neither type are the types that grade well in prospect lists. Sickels still gave us 11 guys at B- or higher which are the types he usually expects to have major league careers as a starter and he had 11 more C+ types who are types that could develop into something. It is a deep but mediocre system. Some of that is from flawed older guys, some from raw unproven guys. We don't have any A prospects but while those are the highest upside they still do flame out a lot.

[brewcrewdue80]

Here's a shot at someone who posted that the odds of drafting a player being 5% success:

Picks in last 25years at 17,18,19 so 75players that resulted in 5.0War or higher Careers:

17:David Murphy,Cole Hamels,Brad Lidge,Roy Halladay,Jeromy Burnitz,Cal Eldred,Charles Navy 7/25~28%

18:Ike Davis,R.A. Dickey 2/25~8%

19:Shannon Stewart,Alex Rios,Sean Burnett@4.9War,James Loney 4/25~16%

Overall that's 17.3% of drafting All-Star material Players.

 

To add, there's Shelby Miller/Michael Wacha on STL who have a good chance to succed above 5WAR@19

Corey Seager/Caleb Cowart Are potentials @18

CJ Cron for LAA@17 with potential

 

So, as I put it earlier, we just dropped a 20% chance for improving the team long term 10% chance of a Superstar long term for aging Lohse at a cost higher than all the controlled years combined of the use of that pick. Oh and we move Stl. up to 19...see above with their potentials^ and their ability to continue to outclass Milw in the Farm system is probably locked now for 10years minimum.

That's what I see with this signing, we are 10years from rebuilding it to a competitive level with Stl. And we now lose further ground on them versus potentially gaining on them.

We already had talked concern with the Team's payroll troubles forthcoming beyond this year before extending Gomez and now this signing. This is bad.

The team should consult with Jeff Loria on how to dismantle this payroll by end of season and start a rebuild. I give the team 2years of competitive play remaining before the shi! hits the fan and we go dormant...or I should say become a Doormat...for a decade or longer.

I'm a Realist and telling it like it should. I won't let my mind be tricked to warm to this signing like other posters already in 2days time have begun. To say Mark A. is worried about filling the seats for 2013 is awful thinking if you truly believe that. If that is the truth then he is in for a big surprise when 2016/17/18 arrive and he has a team filled with nobodys not named Braun and Segura.....and....and

[Thurston Fluff]

Wasn't the trade for Greinke and Marcum supposed to result in a rebuild by now? Remember how bad our minors supposedly were after those trades? 2013 was supposed to be the doom time if we couldn't resign them. Well now here we are in 2013 and we are still supposed to be competitive. So now people are talking about how bad maintaining that competitiveness now will harm us in 2016/17/18. Even assuming it does crash sometime in the next four or five years if we get a decade or so of good play then have to rebuild for a few years so what? At least we'll have some post season play and maybe even a WS title before one of those doom and gloom predictions turn out to be correct.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm a Realist and telling it like it should. I won't let my mind be tricked to warm to this signing like other posters already in 2days time have begun. To say Mark A. is worried about filling the seats for 2013 is awful thinking if you truly believe that. If that is the truth then he is in for a big surprise when 2016/17/18 arrive and he has a team filled with nobodys not named Braun and Segura.....and....and

Rarely do "realists" like to be told how things REALLY are. I am not going to sit here and proclaim that I am "telling it like it should" but your negative glass half full vision of the Brewers is without basis in fact at best and condescending at worst. Do I like the Lohse signing? Not particularly. However, to say this will preclude us from competing in 2016, 2017 & 2018 is simply a doomsday prediction that has no basis in reality. Braun is signed through 2020; Segura through 2018; Lucroy and Aoki are both signed through 2017 and Gomez through 2016. Essentially, the Brewers have 5/8 of the #1 offense in the NL for 4 more seasons and 4/8 of that lineup for 5 more seasons. Taken a step further, in 2016 Aoki will be 34, Braun 33, Gomez 31, Lucroy 30 & Segura 27; not exactly old in terms of baseball years.

 

Hate the Lohse signing all you want and whatever other moves the Brewers make, that's your right as a fan, but don't spout something so blatantly false about the Brewers being absent of talent in future years without doing the research first to back it up.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

I don't hate it a day later.

[LouisEly]

"So, as I put it earlier, we just dropped a 20% chance for improving the team long term"

 

So doesn't this mean an 80% chance for not improving the team long-term? If this is Vegas, I know which one I'm putting my money on.

[LouisEly]

A little history. In 2003 the San Francisco Giants won 100 games, but lost in the NLDS. Hoping to get over the hump, they sacrificed their first round pick in 2004 to sign Michael Tucker from the Royals. That draft pick hurt his arm his second year and never made it past A-ball. In 2004 the Giants won 91 games, just missing the playoffs, primarily because of a poor bullpen. So the Giants gave up their #1 pick in 2005 to sign Armando Benitez from the Marlins. That draft pick was subsequently traded, claimed off of waivers, and pitched a total of 7.2 innings in the majors with an ERA of 7+ and a WHIP of 2.40+. The Giants also gave up their 2nd round pick to sign Mike Matheny; that pick, a high-school pitcher, looks to have gotten hurt his second year also and in five seasons never made it past A-ball. Five years later the Giants won the World Series.

 

One draft pick is not going to make or break a franchise.

[Eye Black]

This Rosenthal Article includes some Attanasio commentary on the move.

 

Including...

“Doug did a good job articulating the balance that our organization and other organizations have to go through between winning now and building for the future. We’d like to try to do both”

 

“Under the circumstances, we had to make a decision between the future, the draft pick, and bringing in a pitcher who had a huge amount of our success in our division and also who would help mentor our young pitchers."

[dlk9s]

Sounds reasonable.

[brewcrewdue80]

A little history. In 2003 the San Francisco Giants won 100 games, but lost in the NLDS. Hoping to get over the hump, they sacrificed their first round pick in 2004 to sign Michael Tucker from the Royals. That draft pick hurt his arm his second year and never made it past A-ball. In 2004 the Giants won 91 games, just missing the playoffs, primarily because of a poor bullpen. So the Giants gave up their #1 pick in 2005 to sign Armando Benitez from the Marlins. That draft pick was subsequently traded, claimed off of waivers, and pitched a total of 7.2 innings in the majors with an ERA of 7+ and a WHIP of 2.40+. The Giants also gave up their 2nd round pick to sign Mike Matheny; that pick, a high-school pitcher, looks to have gotten hurt his second year also and in five seasons never made it past A-ball. Five years later the Giants won the World Series.

 

One draft pick is not going to make or break a franchise.

 

Wait did you just try to compare this thought of mine on a Team that had Super Roided Barry Bonds leading the way? The guy had near a .600 On Base% in those years.

 

My whole argument in this is that this signing takes away the chance of finding an answer long term that the organization needs. And I'm adding to it the fact that this signing likely puts the team in the 78-87win total. That would mean an after 17 draft pick the next season. Increasing the chances of unlikely finding an answer from within in the long term. Sure, the Brewers may have won 85-90games tops without Lohse and gotten that same pick, but it could also have been doomed with its staff, regression takes place and a 70win team emerged. Like I said, this Lohse signing sets up for the CBA to change it's draft pick compensation..potentially by the next offseason. And the Brewers go down as having signed the worst deal of all in giving up their pick and being the last team having to do so. When Lohse falters due to injury(Again hasn't pitched B2B 200innings ever, and never made it 3 straight years above 175innings) the deal becomes even more laughable to every fan not rooting for Milwaukee.

 

Rarely do "realists" like to be told how things REALLY are. I am not going to sit here and proclaim that I am "telling it like it should" but your negative glass half full vision of the Brewers is without basis in fact at best and condescending at worst. Do I like the Lohse signing? Not particularly. However, to say this will preclude us from competing in 2016, 2017 & 2018 is simply a doomsday prediction that has no basis in reality. Braun is signed through 2020; Segura through 2018; Lucroy and Aoki are both signed through 2017 and Gomez through 2016. Essentially, the Brewers have 5/8 of the #1 offense in the NL for 4 more seasons and 4/8 of that lineup for 5 more seasons. Taken a step further, in 2016 Aoki will be 34, Braun 33, Gomez 31, Lucroy 30 & Segura 27; not exactly old in terms of baseball years.

 

Hey, don't get me wrong, I love Aoki/Lucroy/Segura. But who pitches for the team after 2015? Lohse/Gallardo are gone then. And again the Lohse signing shows me no belief within there's a ML pitcher in the Farm system to step up as a #5starter at minimum. Zero highly rated Pitching prospects. And just recently we've had highly rated prospects like Minor/Delgado/Skaggs/Bauer/Teheran to name a few come up and be anything but spectacular.

Weeks/Aram/Hart are gone...not necessarily a bad thing then but who replaces them? Braun has yet to be suspended lifetime by MLB but they are hunting him done like Lance Armstrong was and MLB will sure get their man. So I'm not counting on Braun to be around longer than 3years. Lucroy as a Catcher at 31, I'm not going to count on then to be as good as he is now. Add Gomez who could just be a flash in the pan 2012. Signs point up but I need to see it this year to have faith in it. Oh and Aoki, Bourn was dissed as a long term signing due to his game relying on speed. Aoki beats the ball in to the ground quite often and speeds his way in to 1st. How many years will he be able to keep that up? Not to mention 2016/17 can he even continue playing the OF effectively enough? I like Aoki for the added 2years. Maybe a 3rd but only if the team doesn't have any other younger options. So, again my only two mainstays comfortably are Braun/Segura. The rest aren't sure things to me for 16and beyond. And Braun has the whole witch hunt after him so even he's no sure thing.

For 11million/yr the Brewers could have afforded Both Jeff Karstens/Brandon McCarthy and kept their draft pick. And honestly either of them can be as good any outing as Lohse. To sit out beyond Dempster only to sign Lohse baffles me. And the timing? Worse! Teams are cutting players loose leading up to Opening day and rather than see if an answer came about for a time being to allow Peralta/Fiers/Rogers to heal/figure themselves out they go and sign an ill-prepared Lohse/lose draft pick that's just over 2months away/ miss out the opportunities that may present themselves this week.

 

Ask all of your in favor this/ What does Lohse have to do in 3years time to make the money part of this contract worth it? Just that alone?

 

Then with the loss of the draft pick what does it become?

 

Me worth it: 40-25 3.44Era 550innings. A Playoff Win It's not just get us in the Playoffs. He HAS to win a game on his own merit for this to become worth it. This is all very reasonable numbers based on his last 2seasons and the offense he has supporting him.

 

Loss of Draft pick: His pitching throughout the season leads the team to a division title/a Playoff series win with him winning 2 games. Same stat line as above.

 

If we don't win the division this signing is a joke. It's not about being "Better Today" We're risking so much for beyond today that this has to be about winning the Division only. If it's not about that then this signing is completely unwarranted. The End

[topper09er]

 

My whole argument in this is that this signing takes away the chance of finding an answer long term that the organization needs.

 

If by long term answer you mean a Ryan Braun type then the chance you are taking away is about 1%, and if by long term answer you mean maybe another Gallardo this chance is around 10% or less.

 

I would say the chances that the player drafted with that 17th pick equals the value we get from Lohse over his 3 years with us is about 5-10%, but that value would not be seen until Ryan Braun is in his mid 30s

[Ennder]

Ask all of your in favor this/ What does Lohse have to do in 3years time to make the money part of this contract worth it? Just that alone?

 

Then with the loss of the draft pick what does it become?

 

 

If we are in contention while playing games in September 2 of the 3 seasons the money was worth it. The draft pick being worth it probably requires making the playoffs once. Winning in the post season is about getting hot at the right time and having things bounce your way so just being around the playoffs is really enough of a goal because no matter how great your roster you can easily lose a short series in October.

[jjkoestler]

"Braun has yet to be suspended lifetime by MLB but they are hunting him done like Lance Armstrong was and MLB will sure get their man. So I'm not counting on Braun to be around longer than 3years."

 

I'm not a huge fan of signing Lohse either, but its hard to think of your post as anything but a doomsday prediction when you start throwing around statements like this.

[brewcrewdue80]

"Braun has yet to be suspended lifetime by MLB but they are hunting him done like Lance Armstrong was and MLB will sure get their man. So I'm not counting on Braun to be around longer than 3years."

 

I'm not a huge fan of signing Lohse either, but its hard to think of your post as anything but a doomsday prediction when you start throwing around statements like this.

 

I can't believe there is one single fan of Milwaukee with zero worry subconsciously of a Braun Suspension. Lifetime is obviously an overstatement, but 100 games seems forthcoming if MLB gets their way. I just don't like the future of this team beyond 2014.

 

How about a change of pace: This signing was all about win today/put fans in the seats. Brewers aren't within 5games of 1st or below .500 at AllStar break the club turns around,Trades Gomez/Lohse/Aram/Weeks. So that in reality they didn't actually spend a lot of money on gomez/Lohse/Aram(Since Aram's year last year was very well worth the contract on its own) Gallardo is able to stay. Maybe Hart signs and plays 1b for 2years. And the incoming players from the trades all become valuable pieces beyond 2014. So, rather than look at the Farm System/Draft as building a team they end up building the new team via trades of proven quality prospects. 1 prospect drafted each from 2011/2012 reach near All-Star level Jungmann/Roache. Now the team has a future of winning for years to come! I can see the "Value" in Gomez/Lohse money owed being added value in trade. Remember the asking price was 15mil by Lohse for 4years. Rangers? 2+years 25mil...Brewers pick up the tab on delayed payout. That's the optimist in me. Gomez 8mil avg a year for next 3years? BJ Upton lite at Half Price? Rather than trade Gomez away with upcoming Free Agency he now has a contract of value. I wonder only because Gomez value at 4.3mil and Lohse at 4mil that it's set up brilliantly for the team to cheaply be invested on a potential great trade return on both. That's my hold out on this. the Silver Lining. Maybe rather than guesswork at 17 they get proven talent prospects at AA or higher. No QO on Gomez and a resulting pick, instead a proven prospect.

[jerichoholicninja]

Kyle Lohse doesn't put fans in the seats. Your average fair weather fan has no clue who Lohse is.

[Ennder]

I can't believe there is one single fan of Milwaukee with zero worry subconsciously of a Braun Suspension. Lifetime is obviously an overstatement, but 100 games seems forthcoming if MLB gets their way. I just don't like the future of this team beyond 2014.

 

I don't worry about it even a tiny bit, there is no way they can suspend him without him failing a test. This is such a complete non issue. The players union is too strong for you to spend even a second worrying about this. At worst MLB could put them in a legal battle for 5 or so years. If he does fail a test it would be 50 games too not 100.

[liveforoctober]

Kyle Lohse doesn't put fans in the seats. Your average fair weather fan has no clue who Lohse is.

 

I kind of disagree. To the fair weather fan ... if they don't know the name Kyle Lohse, they will love it when you say "7th last year in the Cy Young balloting" and "16-3". Fair weather fans will eat that up.

[LouisEly]

"Wait did you just try to compare this thought of mine on a Team that had Super Roided Barry Bonds leading the way? The guy had near a .600 On Base% in those years."

 

Barry Bonds was not on the 2010 Giants team that won the World Series. The point I was making was that the Giants won the World Series five years after giving up three premium draft picks to sign free agents. The Giants also had six - count 'em, six - first round draft picks in 2007. But only two have made the major leagues (one by default), and five of the six project to be less than replacement level or not even make the majors.

[monty57]

My worry isn't so much that our good players will all suck or get suspended. I'm just worried that a higher and higher percentage of our payroll is going to a smaller number of players, which means that we will need more of our league minimum guys to be average-to-above-average. With a bad farm system, that is difficult to do. If our youngsters take a few big steps forward this season, I'll be less worried, but that's a big "if." None of the "prospect watchers" give them much credit, and Melvin's moves don't lead me to believe he has a lot of faith in our farm.

 

On the liability side, Melvin has "laddered" contracts so that as soon as one guy falls off the books, some other guy(s) get big bumps in pay, making it difficult to add another piece. Prior to this offseason, we had a bit of payroll respite this season, with a bump next year, and then we were going to have some financial breathing room. I figured they were laying low with a smaller payroll this year to "get over the hump" giving them some financial freedom, lowering the possiblity that we'd eventually have to go through a major rebuild. With the extensions of Gomez and the signing of Lohse, we lost that breathing room. I don't have a lot of faith that Gomez will be consistantly good, and I fear that at Lohse's age, he will be a negative on the roster before his contract's up, so it's not at all like extending either Braun (young Hall of Fame guy worth the big money) or Lucroy (good player signed cheaply). We basically spent a large portion of our future payrolls on replaceable guys.

 

Everyone is fearful of counting on a few "unproven" players this year, but adding a couple more big-money, multi-year, guaranteed contracts will make it more necessary to count on a greater number of "unproven" players soon. Even after losing Hart, we will still need around a $100MM payroll next year, and that's if we have 8-10 guys playing for league minimum. I understand that we'll have new TV money, which will probably allow for the owners to turn a profit with a $100MM payroll, but do we have 8-10 guys who will play for league minimum who we'll trust to be on the big league roster?

 

Maybe they're getting a lot more money than we've been led to believe. Maybe all the "prospect watchers" are wrong. Maybe Milwaukee has something in the water that will continue to allow guys who are past their prime to continue to play as if they're in their prime. I dunno... just a lot of maybes.

 

For now, I'm going to try to forget that money matters and future liabilities have to be paid. The Brewers should have a decent team this year, and with the addition of the 2nd Wild Card team, I would be surprised if they aren't in the playoff race. I'll try to forget what my brain's trained to think about, and instead focus on this season. Go Brewers!

[narwhalattack]

A part of me just wants to see this team tank in the long run just so that Mark A can see what can happen when you go for the "window of opportunity" method one too many times without planning for the long term future. That is a horrible wish, I know. I'm sorry