The Kyle Lohse Love/Hate Thread

[Brew City Baseball Fan]

No one can argue that we need pitching. The brewers got a guy that was 16-3 with a sub 3 era. With the overload of info out there we are all far to concerned with prospects / draft picks. Call me a homer or apologist or whatever you have but at the end of the day were a better team that will be entertaining. End of discussion, lock it up, drop the mic

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Found this stats driven analysis of Lohse's dramatic improvement the last two years:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/10/21/3522486/-kyle-lohse-analysis-sabermetrics-lucky

 

I don't believe the last two years were a fluke. There is no guarantee he can continue to perform like this, but I feel better about this signing knowing there is at least a reason for why he has improved.

[Eye Black]

The 17th overall pick in any draft is not going to make or break any franchise.

I would say Mike Trout defies that logic.

[TooLiveBrew]

Here's a quick list of players available at the #17 pick in recent years:

 

2011: Taylor Guerrieri, Kolten Wong, Alex Meyer

 

2010: Mike Olt, Taijuan Walker, Christian Yelich

 

2009: Shelby Miller, Mike Trout, Tyler Skaggs

 

2008: Ike Davis, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, Wade Miley

[RockCoCougars]

If Lohse was 24 years old instead of 34, I would put much more stock into his past two seasons. To me, the bottom line is that age 35 or thereabouts is generally where starting pitchers go to die. Toss in the fact that he is a finesse pitcher coming from a pitcher's park from an organization known for turning journeymen into serviceable pitchers, only for them to fall off the face of the earth after they leave town. The fact that no one else really had any interest in him off a career year speaks volumes to me. Additionally, Lohse is only a few years removed from a major injury. There are so many red flags here that it's hard not to be cynical.

 

All that I'll say is that hopefully I'm proven wrong on this one.

[adambr2]

If he continues to be a Cy Young caliber pitcher and post a sub 3.00 ERA for the next 2 years, obviously its a great signing.

 

Its also obvious that the chances of that happening are very unlikely.

 

It is entirely possible that Lohse goes 10-10 with a 4.40 ERA in 175 innings pitched. I just hope people are mentally prepared for that.

[RockCoCougars]

It is entirely possible that Lohse goes 10-10 with a 4.40 ERA in 175 innings pitched. I just hope people are mentally prepared for that.

 

I could actually live with that somewhat, as it's probably better than anyone that he bumped from the rotation could put up. I actually envision the worst case scenario being much more dismal... say 4-7 with a 5 plus ERA in 75 innings and a 'has began long tossing from a flat surface' status next spring.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Serious side this looks like it is the end for Rogers and probably either Narveson or Fiers won't make the starting rotation. Trading Fiers to the Padres would probably be the best move for both the Brewers and Fiers. I wouldn't mind seeing the Brewers also dealing Thornburg also as he may bring back a nice piece would prefer a prospect preferably a position player.

 

It is likely the end for Rogers. Most likely Peralta will start in AAA and they will play wait and see with Narveson and Fiers and that is probably the proper move.

 

If Peralta isn't in the rotation to start the season that is a HUGE mistake, and I'm rarely upset, but this will force me to be. Peralta is more of a sure thing than Fiers and the ceiling is much higher. It only makes sense to have Peralta in the rotation. Fiers should be sent to AAA.

[danzig6767]

I just hate this organization's approach. The way I see it, they had 2 options coming into this offseason:

 

A) Recognize that the rotation, though potentially talented, was loaded with question marks and that looking for a low-cost signing like Marcum as insurance, realizing that if the rotation performed, the lineup is still good enough to give us a shot at the playoffs.

 

I don't hate the signing to the same degree as many here do, but i definitely would rather have Marcum on a one year 4 million dollar deal than Loshe at 3yr/33 million and losing the draft pick.

 

It also would be easier to stomach if the third year wasn't guaranteed with instead some sort of team option/buyout or Lohse had to reach certain numbers to guarantee that third year.

[Ennder]

Serious side this looks like it is the end for Rogers and probably either Narveson or Fiers won't make the starting rotation. Trading Fiers to the Padres would probably be the best move for both the Brewers and Fiers. I wouldn't mind seeing the Brewers also dealing Thornburg also as he may bring back a nice piece would prefer a prospect preferably a position player.

 

It is likely the end for Rogers. Most likely Peralta will start in AAA and they will play wait and see with Narveson and Fiers and that is probably the proper move.

 

If Peralta isn't in the rotation to start the season that is a HUGE mistake, and I'm rarely upset, but this will force me to be. Peralta is more of a sure thing than Fiers and the ceiling is much higher. It only makes sense to have Peralta in the rotation. Fiers should be sent to AAA.

 

No it really isn't, it is the obvious move. He has serious control problems and isn't ready for the majors at this point. Peralta is the weakest SP we have outside of Rogers who is useless. There is no reason that Peralta should be in the majors to start the season, just a waste of service time.

[topper09er]

Starting 1985 when we picked BJ Surhoff over Barry Bonds...Using BJ and his 30.3 WAR as a cutoff,

Number of "BJ Surhoffs or better" taken in the first round of the draft:

1985: 5

1986: 3 (including Sheff)

1987: 3

1988: 1

1989: 2

1990: 2

1991: 2

1992: 2

1993: 4

1994: 1

1995: 2

 

And then we are getting into some active players.

 

So out of those 294 first round picks, 9% gave you BJ Surhoff or better value. Of course at the #17 pick there will almost certainly be at least 1 future HOFer available, but it doesn't mean he will go with that pick, or even the next 500 picks.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Ennder,

 

You obviously haven't been paying attention to what's been happening late last season and in spring training.

 

Peralta hasn't had control problems lately. In 15.2 IP this spring he has only given up 4 BB. Even in the Majors in his starts last season he showed good control and ability to limit the damage by pitching 6-8IP in 3 of his 5 starts, and really only having 1 bad start out of 5. Fiers has given up 8 BB and 29 Hits in 19IP and has obviously been off, and RR has stated publicly that Fiers isn't hitting his spots and locating, which Fiers HAS to do to be effective, because he can't hit 98 MPH like Peralta can to get out of trouble. By the way, Fiers has had the worst spring when you compare him to Peralta. His last 2 starts have been terrible.

 

If Fiers has another bad start I believe it's pretty obvious that he will be sent to AAA Nashville to work on things. That's just how much he is off his game right now.

[topper09er]

And of those 9% (26 players) mentioned above only 10 were taken after the 10th pick, which is a 5% rate.

[The stache]

So, we overspent to get a decent pitcher in his mid 30's, and had to get in bed with the anti-Christ once again to do it.

 

I feel dirty. And I just got out of the shower.

[Patrick425]

It is entirely possible that Lohse goes 10-10 with a 4.40 ERA in 175 innings pitched. I just hope people are mentally prepared for that.

 

Well, these days that's worth $11mil per year..right? Heck, if you have a pulse and all four of your limbs are attached you automatically get $3 million a year.

[Patrick425]

Scott Boras is just awesome at his job.

 

He is? The guy was originally asking for $15 million a year. He is coming off the best year of his career, finished 7th in the Cy Young award voting, and is taking a pay cut.

[torts]

imagine the rotation if gallardo got hurt before this signing.

 

adambr2 said:

It is entirely possible that Lohse goes 10-10 with a 4.40 ERA in 175 innings pitched. I just hope people are mentally prepared for that.

 

after 8 years of Suppan, Wolf, Looper and Bush, I think all brewers fans are mentally prepared for anything.

[Outlander]

For everyone who hates this signing, tell me what your projection for Lohse is over the life of the contract. I'll take a very rough stab at it myself:

Unofortunately I am not very optimistic as I have seen him pitch in person many times with the Twins, Reds, and Cardinals. He is due for an off year and an injury:

 

2013: 90 IP, 4.90 ERA

2014: 150 IP, 4.75 ERA

2015: 140 IP, 4.40 ERA (We actually salvage something and trade him at the deadline)

[torts]

he cant just have one, he will have both, an off year AND injury.

[JohnBriggs12]

The argument over guys like Peralta, Fiers, etc makes my point that I've been saying all along in that they don't really know what they have in those two and I'll throw in guys like Burgos and Thornburg too. The opportunity was right before them to test these guys right out of the gate in games that count. If one or two faltered badly, just replace them with Burgos and Thornburg. The offense was good enough to carry them in August and September last year and the bullpen should be improved. Narveson, who's 31 is a veteran presence. Estrada too, at 29 has been around. They aren't kids.

 

Instead, they gave in to outside pressures (so-called expert prognosticators), and put too much on spring numbers in Arizona. My goodness, Fiers wasn't sharp early last year either before he got called up in May. But they made a huge deal out of some rough outings this spring that mean nothing.

 

Carlos Villanueva touched on it when talking about wanting to be a starter all along. He said teams (re:Brewers) never let him ride out a rough patch as a starter. That's exactly what's happening know. Melvin has shown in the past that if he traded for you (Capuano) or signed you as a FA, his patience is limitless, but if you sort of forced your way up the ladder with your performance, and didn't wow scouts along the way, he'd stick with you until you had a couple rocky starts, then he'd look to dump you or at least move you to the pen.

[fondybrewfan]

Just because we got Lohse doesn't mean that Burgos and Thornburg might not get a chance. They will still get ample opportunity if Estrada, Narveson, or Peralta struggle.

 

I am not a huge fan of the signing but I am willing to give it a chance. I certainly don't think Lohse is going to block anybody. If Thornburg, Burgos, Jungmann, etc pitch will enough in MILB they will fine there way up here. Odds are probably pretty good that at least one of Peralta, Narveson, and Estrada completely flame out.

[clancyphile]

Ennder,

 

You obviously haven't been paying attention to what's been happening late last season and in spring training.

 

Peralta hasn't had control problems lately. In 15.2 IP this spring he has only given up 4 BB. Even in the Majors in his starts last season he showed good control and ability to limit the damage by pitching 6-8IP in 3 of his 5 starts, and really only having 1 bad start out of 5. Fiers has given up 8 BB and 29 Hits in 19IP and has obviously been off, and RR has stated publicly that Fiers isn't hitting his spots and locating, which Fiers HAS to do to be effective, because he can't hit 98 MPH like Peralta can to get out of trouble. By the way, Fiers has had the worst spring when you compare him to Peralta. His last 2 starts have been terrible.

 

If Fiers has another bad start I believe it's pretty obvious that he will be sent to AAA Nashville to work on things. That's just how much he is off his game right now.

 

Which is what Lohse allows the Crew to do. Send Fiers, Thornburg, and Peralta down to AAA so they can sort out their issues. Hide Rogers in the bullpen.

 

Basically go with Gallardo, Lohse, Estrada, Narveson, and Burgos to start the season.

[Ennder]

2013: 90 IP, 4.90 ERA

2014: 150 IP, 4.75 ERA

2014: 140 IP, 4.40 ERA (We actually salvage something and trade him at the deadline)

 

This is simply absurd.

[Ennder]

You obviously haven't been paying attention to what's been happening late last season and in spring training.

 

Last year Liriano had 23 K and 3 BB in 18 IP on March 27th. He went on to walk everyone in the majors. Watch Peralta pitch, he really doesn't have a solid clue where the ball is going when he throws. His stuff has enough movement that as long as hitters are swinging he is going to get a lot of K and not an over the top number of walks but eventually this will catch up to a player and hitters will start to lay off of his pitches more. To use an extreme example Marmol never threw strikes when he came up but was very successful because people swung at all his junk out of the zone, once they caught on he suddenly walked like 7 per 9.

 

Peralta starts in AAA for a month, it gives us another year of control on him and lets him find his comfort zone and then fills in for the first guy who struggles or is injured would be my guess.

 

A lot depends on when Lohse is ready to pitch obviously though.

[clancyphile]

The argument over guys like Peralta, Fiers, etc makes my point that I've been saying all along in that they don't really know what they have in those two and I'll throw in guys like Burgos and Thornburg too. The opportunity was right before them to test these guys right out of the gate in games that count. If one or two faltered badly, just replace them with Burgos and Thornburg. The offense was good enough to carry them in August and September last year and the bullpen should be improved. Narveson, who's 31 is a veteran presence. Estrada too, at 29 has been around. They aren't kids.

 

Instead, they gave in to outside pressures (so-called expert prognosticators), and put too much on spring numbers in Arizona. My goodness, Fiers wasn't sharp early last year either before he got called up in May. But they made a huge deal out of some rough outings this spring that mean nothing.

 

Carlos Villanueva touched on it when talking about wanting to be a starter all along. He said teams (re:Brewers) never let him ride out a rough patch as a starter. That's exactly what's happening know. Melvin has shown in the past that if he traded for you (Capuano) or signed you as a FA, his patience is limitless, but if you sort of forced your way up the ladder with your performance, and didn't wow scouts along the way, he'd stick with you until you had a couple rocky starts, then he'd look to dump you or at least move you to the pen.

 

It was a mistake. Had they stuck with Dillard and Villanueva as starters (remember when Dillard was racking up CGs in Brevard County?), I think they'd have been better off. No need to sign Wolf or Looper.

 

But can't really cry about it now.