The Kyle Lohse Love/Hate Thread

[BCZF]

I dunno.. I mean, the spring pitching has been so damn lackluster you had to do something.. Like hold your nose and sign a Scott Boras client. I hope he works out, hell just be serviceable..Thats possible, right?? RIGHT!??

[nate82]

 

13 - $4 million

14 - $11 million

15 - $11 million

16 - $ 2 million

17 - $2 million

18 - $3 million

 

Awesome. So we're going to be paying him for 3 years after his contract is up.

 

You need to consider the time value of money. This makes the deal a little better than if it was a straight 3 years, $11 mil/year. Spreading it out saves the Brewers around $1 mil over the course of the contract.

 

[sarcasm]But we are paying him after he is gone oh noes what are we doing.[/sarcasm]

 

 

Serious side this looks like it is the end for Rogers and probably either Narveson or Fiers won't make the starting rotation. Trading Fiers to the Padres would probably be the best move for both the Brewers and Fiers. I wouldn't mind seeing the Brewers also dealing Thornburg also as he may bring back a nice piece would prefer a prospect preferably a position player.

 

I believe the rotation will settle in as Gallardo, Lohse, Estrada, Narveson, Peralta/Fiers/Rogers/Thornburg/did I miss anyone else?

[patrickgpe]

i haven't been through eveyones posts, but I'll throw in my 2 cents. For those complaining about a draft pick. The brewers haven't really had great success with top draft picks of late, and there is no guarantee. Once could complain the brewers threw away the future to get Greinke, because they have away tangible players with actual big league track records. If the brewers don't get back into the playoffs while Braun and Yo are on the team, is there much use in "building for the future". Most brewer fans hated when the brewers kept on saying that during the dean taylor era. While I find giving 3 years to a 34 year old pitcher with average career stats and 2 good season questionable, I think the move makes the brewers a playoff contender again for 2013, I didn't think that when i got up this morning.

[dlk9s]

I think I'm like the only person who doesn't really care about losing the draft pick. I mean, I know why it's bad, but for some reason, maybe it's the crapshoot aspect of the draft or maybe it's the lack of recent success of our first round picks, who knows, but I'm just shrugging my shoulders at it.

 

I don't like who gets an extra pick, though.

 

As for Lohse himself, I figure he'll be fine for at least the first two years of the contract. The problem with the team right now is that they are unlikely to be bad enough to land high in the draft nor good enough to make the playoffs. The starting rotation, as it stood before Lohse, looked like it was much more likely to be bad than good, so we'd probably just end up with one of those useless slightly-below-average seasons. Our best chance to move either up or down was probably to bolster the rotation and move up, thus the Lohse signing.

[topper09er]

The funny thing is that the brewers have spent 70-75% of the cost of Greinke ( on a per year basis) by extending Gomez and signing Lohse.

 

Im all for signing a few studs and filling in the gaps instead of settling for a bunch of average guys, but no matter what we would have offered Greinke the Dodgers would have just offered more. We had no shot at him.

[brewmann04]

i haven't been through eveyones posts, but I'll throw in my 2 cents. For those complaining about a draft pick. The brewers haven't really had great success with top draft picks of late, and there is no guarantee. Once could complain the brewers threw away the future to get Greinke, because they have away tangible players with actual big league track records. If the brewers don't get back into the playoffs while Braun and Yo are on the team, is there much use in "building for the future". Most brewer fans hated when the brewers kept on saying that during the dean taylor era. While I find giving 3 years to a 34 year old pitcher with average career stats and 2 good season questionable, I think the move makes the brewers a playoff contender again for 2013, I didn't think that when i got up this morning.

 

 

Nice post

[xisxisxis]

It gets old having to defend mediocre signings, only because a significant portion of Brewer fans seem to overact negatively.........You need to consider the time value of money. This makes the deal a little better than if it was a straight 3 years, $11 mil/year. Spreading it out saves the Brewers around $1 mil over the course of the contract.

 

Yeah because 3yrs $32m is so much better than 3yrs, $33m..... Thanks for defending the brewers ineptitude, I'm so appreciative of the cross you have to bare....

[adambr2]

I think I'm like the only person who doesn't really care about losing the draft pick. I mean, I know why it's bad, but for some reason, maybe it's the crapshoot aspect of the draft or maybe it's the lack of recent success of our first round picks, who knows, but I'm just shrugging my shoulders at it.

 

I don't like who gets an extra pick, though.

 

As for Lohse himself, I figure he'll be fine for at least the first two years of the contract. The problem with the team right now is that they are unlikely to be bad enough to land high in the draft nor good enough to make the playoffs. The starting rotation, as it stood before Lohse, looked like it was much more likely to be bad than good, so we'd probably just end up with one of those useless slightly-below-average seasons. Our best chance to move either up or down was probably to bolster the rotation and move up, thus the Lohse signing.

 

You just know that the Cardinals are going to end up getting the next Albert friggen Pujols with the 17th overall pick this year.

[LouisEly]

Some random thoughts:

 

1) Didn't people say the same thing about Ted Lilly two years ago? He was doing just fine until he got hurt, and I assume there is some type of injury insurance in the contract to protect them financially. Point being, Lilly was performing just fine until the injury despite signing a similar contract at a similar age.

 

B) Speaking of Ted Lilly, looking at who the Dodgers traded to the Cubs for him do you think they regret that trade at all?

 

3) Would anyone have mourned the loss of their 2009 1st round draft pick to sign a type-A free agent pitcher?

 

4) The Brewers won 83 games last year despite one of the worst bullpen performances in the history of baseball (not to mention trading away an All-Star starting pitcher). Their bullpen pitchers were charged with 33 losses; how Livan Hernandez avoided being charged with any is a miracle. They weren't an 83-win team; they were a 90+ win team that got very unlucky with their bullpen performance.

[topper09er]

For the next 3 years, I cannot forsee the Brewers having a total of 5 starting pitchers that are certainly better than Lohse. Therefore he should make our team better. Maybe it is an overpay and I guess we could have spent the money elsewhere, but I dont really where else we could have spent our money better than for the SP position. Right now we have

LF - Best player in the league

CF - Average

RF - Average

3B - Above Average

SS - Below with potential to be average

2B - Above Average

1B - Average to above (Hart)

C - Above Average

 

SP1 - Above Average

SP else below to ????

 

Bullpen - I rate the bullpen for almost every team every year as ??? I think a big RP investment is a crap shoot.

 

I guess the alternative was just to sit pat and use the pick, but Ill always take a known guy with an MLB track record over a pick.

[H4P]

This signing makes me realize how contrasting the 2 major franchises in this state (and I'm not talking about you Bucks) are. You have GB who refuses to sacrifice the future for the present. And everyone complains. And you have the MB who refuse to sacrifice the present for the future. And everyone complains. I'm glad I'm not a GM.

 

Comparing football to baseball isn't fair in a general sense. But if you compare the patience to urgence strategies, I'll take the patience. It's more frustrating to fans in the moment but more beneficial to a franchise in the long run.

 

How many Suppans must one man suffer?

[brewcrewdue80]

Ah, yes the this team becomes a playoff contender with Lohse reasoning vs. a mediocre club on it's way to a mid round draft pick next year.

 

I said this as well what Lohse signing can impact the team. This Scenario:

Lohse minus 17th pick. Takes a 70-88win team and makes them a 77-88team. Yep, I don't see a higher top win threshold.

It's the lower win total going in to the year with what we have that makes the impact. 70wins would put the team in that bottom 10 record in Baseball. The caveat of bottom 10? Freedom to sign and keep your 1st round pick.

End game scenario: 17thpick...poor season...top 10 pick...Free Agent signing/signings and 2014 and Beyond Success!

 

Our scenario now: No Pick...Respectable season of .500 ball to Wild Card. Outside of 17pick next season(unprotected). No major FA signing...Money's already spent. Hope for success in 2014. Everyone is gone 2015 nobody is coming up to join club of All-Star value for years.

Okay a little dark but it wasn't just the money aspect of it or the loss of pick it was the impact that Lohse secures this team a near .500 finish or better. I don't see the downside of 70wins or even worse from this team anymore. I was thrilled to go in to the year seeing young pitchers pitch with no expectations on good to great or just plain awful. I said earlier there's 9 guys this team should be trying out as their starting pitcher 3/4/5s before end of next season. And to me, let's face it if these players aren't thought of as studs, then the whole Major League service clock time doesn't apply to them in planning. Send them up/down/up down and in 2 or 3years clear them out if they aren't working. Now with what is happening, I see Scrubs as we've labeled them as our Minor League Pitchers who are going to be traded away to create space from overcrowding and get nothing of true value in return. The value in return may have come if they actually seen 10-25Starts and some ML team liked them enough to trade a real piece in return.

So much bad can result from this and not a whole lot of good. Even if the Brewers make it to Playoffs, getting past Washington/Atlanta/ or the Dodgers/Giants....We aren't that good on paper. I don't need to see us be perennial Wild Card losers. I want to be able to field a team that on paper looks legit to beat any team in the NL. Lohse makes us further away from that long term.

[patrickgpe]

I think I'm like the only person who doesn't really care about losing the draft pick. I mean, I know why it's bad, but for some reason, maybe it's the crapshoot aspect of the draft or maybe it's the lack of recent success of our first round picks, who knows, but I'm just shrugging my shoulders at it.

 

I don't like who gets an extra pick, though.

 

I really don't care about the draft pick either. There is a large difference between an NFL or NBA draft pick and an MLB draft pick. While the brewers did have a stretch of getting franchise players with their first round pick, recently they haven't done much with them. There is just as good of a chance of the brewers getting a player of equal ability in the 2nd as in the 1st.

[patrickgpe]

there is a lot of losers mentality on this board. is their risk, YES. I think the largest reason for to pessimistic, is that Melvin has tried signings like this twice and 1 failed and 1 fizzled out in the end, along with giving up the pick. This pick shows that the brewers are going for it still in 2013. As a brewer fan I like that. If the most optimistic fan on this would have thought that it would be hard to get pass the cards and reds with peralta, fiers, and narveson in the rotation with thornburg and rogers as backup plans.

[TooLiveBrew]

You just know that the Cardinals are going to end up getting the next Albert friggen Pujols with the 17th overall pick this year.

To hopefully make you feel slightly less nauseous, that was the rule in the old CBA. In the current CBA, the Brewers lose the 17th pick, and the Cards net a pick in the supplemental round between rounds 1 & 2.

[umphrey]

The funny thing is that the brewers have spent 70-75% of the cost of Greinke ( on a per year basis) by extending Gomez and signing Lohse.

 

Im all for signing a few studs and filling in the gaps instead of settling for a bunch of average guys, but no matter what we would have offered Greinke the Dodgers would have just offered more. We had no shot at him.

 

24 + 33 =/= 75% of 147. On AAV, maybe it's close, but investing $147M in one elbow isn't smart for the Brewers.

[Ennder]

Lohse was gonna sign with someone so the Cardinals didn't gain anything from this. We lost a pick and a big chunk of cash.

[Ennder]

Serious side this looks like it is the end for Rogers and probably either Narveson or Fiers won't make the starting rotation. Trading Fiers to the Padres would probably be the best move for both the Brewers and Fiers. I wouldn't mind seeing the Brewers also dealing Thornburg also as he may bring back a nice piece would prefer a prospect preferably a position player.

 

It is likely the end for Rogers. Most likely Peralta will start in AAA and they will play wait and see with Narveson and Fiers and that is probably the proper move.

[rluzinski]

It gets old having to defend mediocre signings, only because a significant portion of Brewer fans seem to overact negatively.........You need to consider the time value of money. This makes the deal a little better than if it was a straight 3 years, $11 mil/year. Spreading it out saves the Brewers around $1 mil over the course of the contract.

 

Yeah because 3yrs $32m is so much better than 3yrs, $33m..... Thanks for defending the brewers ineptitude, I'm so appreciative of the cross you have to bare....

 

I called this a mediocre signing. If that makes me a Brewer apologist in your eyes, so be it. I explained why I didn't think this was a terrible signing in a previous post; go find it and respond if you want to have an intelligent discussion. Otherwise, I'll see you in 4 months, when you feel compelled to rant about the next Brewer topic.

[bullox]

EDIT: Oh my god, we sacrificed a mid-1st round pick to sign this expensive, aging, pedestrian non-entity??? Inexcusable. This truly is a joke.

 

Lohse was 7th in Cy Young voting last year. That looks much better slotted in behind Gallardo than a handful of question marks. I don't get the all out hate.

[RobDeer 45]

EDIT: Oh my god, we sacrificed a mid-1st round pick to sign this expensive, aging, pedestrian non-entity??? Inexcusable. This truly is a joke.

 

Lohse was 7th in Cy Young voting last year. That looks much better slotted in behind Gallardo than a handful of question marks. I don't get the all out hate.

 

Exactly. I think this helps this year for sure. I'm not in love with it by any means but until we see what happens I don't think people can say its horrible or amazing.

[Ennder]

Most of the hate is because Lohse stunk before he learned a new pitch and because he happened to play for the same team as Suppan and Looper and well because most of the posters on this forum are incredibly negative about the team and have been for a few years now.

[rluzinski]

For everyone who hates this signing, tell me what your projection for Lohse is over the life of the contract. I'll take a very rough stab at it myself:

 

2013: 180 IP, 3.75 ERA

2014: 170 IP, 4.00 ERA

2014: 160 IP, 4.25 ERA

 

Is that worth 3/$33 mil and the draft pick? No. I would call this a solid deal if not for the draft pick, though. I call it mediocre with it. I would have preferred they just skipped this and won 78 games this year but I don't see how it is a disaster, either.

[Ennder]

2013 200 IP, 3.60 ERA

2014 190 IP, 3.80 ERA

2015 150 IP, 4.50 ERA

 

I will also take the over on 78 wins without Lohse and it isn't even remotely close to me. This is an above .500 roster. What we have lost over the past 2 years just doesn't add up to 15 teams or so loss in talent and what we lost from last year to this year doesn't add up to 5 losses. Unless you think the team got like 5+ games lucky each of the past 2 years the math just doesn't add up.

[LouisEly]

I think I'm like the only person who doesn't really care about losing the draft pick. I mean, I know why it's bad, but for some reason, maybe it's the crapshoot aspect of the draft or maybe it's the lack of recent success of our first round picks, who knows, but I'm just shrugging my shoulders at it.

 

I don't like who gets an extra pick, though.

 

As for Lohse himself, I figure he'll be fine for at least the first two years of the contract. The problem with the team right now is that they are unlikely to be bad enough to land high in the draft nor good enough to make the playoffs.

 

Nope, I'm right there with you. The 17th overall pick in any draft is not going to make or break any franchise. It took the Rays almost a decade of top-10 picks before they became good. It took the Brewers five years of top-10 picks before they accumulated the talent to become contenders. It took the Giants four years of top-10 picks before they accumulated the talent to win the World Series. The Brewers have too much talent offensively to be bad enough to get top-10 picks in the near future, so I say go for it now and then tear down in two years when Hart, Ramirez, and Weeks are gone.