Rotation

[Thurston Fluff]

What is it about our bullpen that makes anyone think it can handle someone who can't be relied on to help? It was terrible last season. Adding a player who isn't good enough to help isn't going to make it better. That spot could be used to look at someone who is actually playing well.

[TooLiveBrew]

What is it about our bullpen that makes anyone think it can handle someone who can't be relied on to help? It was terrible last season.

What makes you compare a bullpen that's going to consist of exactly two returning players to last season's version? Not saying I think the bullpen will be great, just that your method of comparison is bad.

[monty57]

What is it about our bullpen that makes anyone think it can handle someone who can't be relied on to help? It was terrible last season. Adding a player who isn't good enough to help isn't going to make it better. That spot could be used to look at someone who is actually playing well.

 

Are you referring to Rogers taking the eigth bullpen spot?

 

If so, putting him in the 'pen would only be done because (1) he's out of options, (2) he couldn't find the strike zone this spring and would be pretty much an automatic loss every fifth day if he were given a spot in the rotation, and (3) the Brewers aren't yet ready to give up on him, so they'd see if the coaching staff could help him work through things. He wouldn't "help" other than eating up some innings in blowout games.

 

It's really a question of whether or not holding on to him in this fashion is more important than keeping another position player on the bench.

[Thurston Fluff]

What makes you compare a bullpen that's going to consist of exactly two returning players to last season's version? Not saying I think the bullpen will be great, just that your method of comparison is bad.

 

If we don't want to have another bad pen then it stands to reason we should rebuild it with quality players who seem to be ready. Keeping an under-performing 27 year old prospect who didn't have a stellar AAA season last year is hardly the way to go about making the pen better.

I get that we can stash him there and only use him in low leverage situations. But there are two problems with that. First how likely is it that type of work is going to turn him around? Second not all of our other relievers are likely to pan out. Why have a guy who didn't show anything taking up a spot when it could go to someone more worthy?

I also get that we don't want to lose a guy who might be good someday and get nothing in return. Jorge De la Rosa comes to mind. He did pretty well after leaving here. But it took about 3 years more before it clicked. That is why I suggested trading him for a decent bench player. JDLR got us Tony Graffanino. I think we can get someone like that for Rogers. At this point considering Rogers age, performance last season in AAA and the number of prospects we have that are passing him up I would rather get a Graffanino type than have him taking up a roster spot that might be used on someone who could help us win a game or two. With all hands on deck we are a marginal post season contender at best. To be a legitimate one I think we need to have the best 25 players. Not 24 and one who might be ok someday.

 

It's really a question of whether or not holding on to him in this fashion is more important than keeping another position player on the bench.

 

Not necessarily. I think it might not be a bad idea to have a lot of pitchers early who may be called upon to actually help the team win a game or two. At this point we are not sure which relievers we can count on in what role. I can see the argument for keeping enough that we can throw them in and see who sticks where. I don't think you can do that as effectively with a guy you know isn't going to help taking one of those spots.

[markedman5]

Does Fiers have options left? He doesn't look like a guy who you want to throw out there either right now....

 

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/brewers.html

[PrinceEatMeat]

Does Fiers have options left? He doesn't look like a guy who you want to throw out there either right now....

 

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/brewers.html

 

Yep, he's got 2. I don't see a scenario where he isn't in the rotation to start the season though. Have a feeling that they'll be using one of those options at some point though. He's the guy that scares me the most in the current rotation honestly. I feel pretty confident with Gallardo, Estrada, and Peralta as the top 3. Narveson should be a solid 5th starter also. I just think Fiers is similar to Collmenter from the D'Backs. He came on strong and had everyone fooled in 2011, and completely tanked last year. Fiers stuff just doesn't project into a long-term successful starter. At least to anywhere near the point he was at last year. My hope is that he'll at least be a solid bottom of the rotation guy like Narveson. I'm very concerned though, and have been all along. I think we'll see Thornburg or Burgos in the rotation before too long. Would be nice if Rogers was throwing better too.

[TooLiveBrew]

I completely agree on Fiers. He didn't even have everyone fooled anymore once August rolled around. From that point through the end of the regular season (12 of his 23 starts), his ERA was 5.84

[Ennder]

I completely agree on Fiers. He didn't even have everyone fooled anymore once August rolled around. From that point through the end of the regular season (12 of his 23 starts), his ERA was 5.84

 

With 33 K to 13 BB which are still absolutely great ratios. He gave up a bunch of hits and HR and that points directly towards being fatigued and missing high. Fiers is the 2nd safest pitcher in the rotation imo. His 2nd half FIP and xFIP were still 3.67. It is hard to strike out that many and walk that few and be a bad pitcher and to be honest he had the best minor league stats of any of the newer guys too, it is really unlikely that he collapses. he has the same issue Estrada does though that he might give up too many HR.

[yoshii8]

I'm ok w/ Fiers as the 5th starter. I just hope if any of the young guys fail, they won't be afraid to utilize either Hellweg, Burgos or Thornburg.

[TooLiveBrew]

I completely agree on Fiers. He didn't even have everyone fooled anymore once August rolled around. From that point through the end of the regular season (12 of his 23 starts), his ERA was 5.84

 

With 33 K to 13 BB which are still absolutely great ratios. He gave up a bunch of hits and HR and that points directly towards being fatigued and missing high. Fiers is the 2nd safest pitcher in the rotation imo. His 2nd half FIP and xFIP were still 3.67. It is hard to strike out that many and walk that few and be a bad pitcher and to be honest he had the best minor league stats of any of the newer guys too, it is really unlikely that he collapses. he has the same issue Estrada does though that he might give up too many HR.

Do you know of a good place to find pitch locations for entire months of the season? I know FanGraphs has some pitch f/x stuff, but I'd rather not look through each game log.

[Ennder]

What is it about our bullpen that makes anyone think it can handle someone who can't be relied on to help? It was terrible last season.

What makes you compare a bullpen that's going to consist of exactly two returning players to last season's version? Not saying I think the bullpen will be great, just that your method of comparison is bad.

 

 

The fact that all of the guys we added are below replacement level would be my issue. There is no reason to think we have a league average bullpen and to be honest we probably have one of the worst in the game.

[endaround]

I completely agree on Fiers. He didn't even have everyone fooled anymore once August rolled around. From that point through the end of the regular season (12 of his 23 starts), his ERA was 5.84

 

With 33 K to 13 BB which are still absolutely great ratios. He gave up a bunch of hits and HR and that points directly towards being fatigued and missing high. Fiers is the 2nd safest pitcher in the rotation imo. His 2nd half FIP and xFIP were still 3.67. It is hard to strike out that many and walk that few and be a bad pitcher and to be honest he had the best minor league stats of any of the newer guys too, it is really unlikely that he collapses. he has the same issue Estrada does though that he might give up too many HR.

 

He also has the issue that he pitches with pitches that do not typically get major league hitters out. The number of RHers that have sustained success with a sub 89 mph fastball begins and ends with Greg Maddux. But he doesn't have the control of Maddux. Look at his four seam FB chart, it catches plenty of the plate.

[Thurston Fluff]

The fact that all of the guys we added are below replacement level would be my issue. There is no reason to think we have a league average bullpen and to be honest we probably have one of the worst in the game.

 

If Gorzelanny and González are below replacement level I think it says more about the mythical replacement level than it does the pitcher.

[endaround]

Not sure why you think they are world beaters. They both project to have an ERA of around 4 with Gonzalez doing better if they don't allow him to face RHers. They likely won't have that luxury for Gorzelanny.

[Ennder]

23 pitchers pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title last year that had an average FB of under 90. Including names like Waiwright, Kennedy, Hudson, Haren, Weaver, Milone, Capuano and of course Dickey. You do not have to throw over 90 to be successful, especially when you have a really nasty secondary pitch which Fiers does have. There are reasons to doubt he will last long term as a high end starter but when he has that long of a track record of success in the minors there is no reason to think he will fail in the majors.

 

If Gorzelanny and González are below replacement level I think it says more about the mythical replacement level than it does the pitcher.

 

Gorzelanny was a 0.2 WAR pitcher last year and Bradenhop was a 0.5 and while I hate pitching WAR those numbers look more real to me than the ERAs which looked very flukish. So yeah I exaggerated but there isn't much reason to think this bullpen is going to be great unless some young guys break out.

[Thurston Fluff]

Not sure why you think they are world beaters. They both project to have an ERA of around 4 with Gonzalez doing better if they don't allow him to face RHers. They likely won't have that luxury for Gorzelanny.

 

You said they were below replacement level. I said they are not. What world beaters has to do with any of that I don't know. I think most people would agree with me those two pitchers give you a better shot at a good result than any old run of the mill AAAA scrub. Which goes to my contention that people often misuse the concept of replacement level. Thus on goes my war on WAR.

[Ennder]

Not sure why you think they are world beaters. They both project to have an ERA of around 4 with Gonzalez doing better if they don't allow him to face RHers. They likely won't have that luxury for Gorzelanny.

 

You said they were below replacement level. I said they are not. What world beaters has to do with any of that I don't know. I think most people would agree with me those two pitchers give you a better shot at a good result than any old run of the mill AAAA scrub. Which goes to my contention that people often misuse the concept of replacement level. Thus on goes my war on WAR.

 

Replacement level at RP is about 4.20 ERA. These guys are really close to replacement level. They are about as weak as you can get in a RP and still expect them to hold a full time job year after year.

[Thurston Fluff]

So you agree they are not below replacement level as you stated earlier then? I'm not trying to come off as a wienie it's just that replacement level has become such a significant concept in today's baseball that it really carries more weight than it should already. Expanding the concept beyond it's original borders both increases it's weight and diminishes it's validity at the same time. I wish baseball would go with a measurement of value based on league average instead of replacement level. At least then we can measure numbers that are based on real players in major league baseball.

[Warning Track Power]

So what are we looking at now:

1. Gallardo

2. Lohse

3. Estrada

4. Narveson

5. Peralta or Fiers?

[MVP2110]

So what are we looking at now:

1. Gallardo

2. Lohse

3. Fiers(?)

4. Peralta

5. Narveson

 

put Estrada in place of Fiers and you have my guess

[chadomac]

1 Gallardo

2 Lohse

3 Estrada

4 Peralta

5 Fiers

 

I hope Narveson's out. We'll see.

[djoctagone]

the brewers can retain peralta for an extra year (through 2019) if he remains optioned at nashville until late may. i'd go with gallardo, lohse, estrada, narveson and fiers until one falters or gets injured.

[Ennder]

I'd probably option Peralta to start the year as well and get him to really focus on improving his command which still isn't major league ready.

[RobDeer 45]

Well at least for this year the rotation looks better and more manageable to deal with injuries or failure. Should be interesting!

[sheetskout]

1 Gallardo

2 Lohse

3 Estrada

4 Peralta

5 Fiers

 

I hope Narveson's out. We'll see.

 

 

I would highly doubt it as he's out of options and we already have two other lefties in the bullpen. Frankly, based on business and not talent I'd bet Narvy is more a lock to start than even Estrada at this point.