Khris Davis and the potential he has...but where?

[BrewCrewForever]

Bernie Pleskoff

@BerniePleskoff

#Brewers have a real gem in Khris Davis. I have not seen a bad at-bat from him. Shame he plays LF and not 1B. He has a big future.

 

They really should work him to death at 1B.

[RobDeer 45]

If Prince Fielder can be below average at 1st base, I am 100% confident Ryan Braun can at least be average.

 

If I were the opposing manager and Braun was at first, I would tell every runner to take a big lead and run with every pick-off attempt, and keep running until they hit third because the throw would be in left field. Braun was as bad at third as he is good at the plate, and I don't think switching sides of the infield will make him decent.

 

I 100% disagree. The throw from 1st to 2nd is half as far as third to first

 

Exactly and you are also throwing from an under control stance on a throw over. When throwing from 3rd you are first trying to field the ball, you could be running away, towards short, towards home, all kinds of factors. Only think I'd worry about with him at 1st would be how big of a target he is and his footwork. Some people have a hard time with that, others don't. I'm not really for that move because I think he's a natural OF, but throwing would be the least of my worries with him.

[brwrsfan]

So what options do we realistically have here? We certainly aren't moving Braun.

 

I'm guessing Braun could handle RF, he has the arm for it certainly, but we have Aoki for the immediate future. Davis could maybe play 1b, but we have Morris there as well. What can we do? We certainly can't trade him. Aoki can play CF, but we didn't pay Gomez all that money to platoon.

 

I think I'd send him down this year and have him play RF/LF/1B and go from there. We have to figure something out though, him and Morris are the only impact bats we have, and Davis has looked great here.

[The stache]

The guy's going to be 26 in December. How many more of his prime years are we going to waste trying to figure out what to do with him?

[clancyphile]

The guy's going to be 26 in December. How many more of his prime years are we going to waste trying to figure out what to do with him?

 

Agreed. Either trade A-Ram and put Braun at third, or let Hart walk after 2013 and put Davis at first.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's astounding to me how many people would be okay with Braun "defending" at 3B. The guy can't play the position, plain & simple.

 

And the fact that some are willing to move Braun to a position where he'd hurt the team incredibly badly to clear a spot for Davis shows just how devoid our farm system is of bats at the moment. I like Davis, fwiw.

[Ennder]

Agreed. Either trade A-Ram and put Braun at third, or let Hart walk after 2013 and put Davis at first.

 

This is certainly not anywhere near an option, that would be a completely disaster.

 

If they really want to find a spot for Davis you stick him in AAA or AA at 1B and get him reps there. Then you either trade Hart when he is healthy or you let him walk at the end of the year and put Davis in at 1B next year. For the 2nd half of this year he can be a backup OF and backup 1B and fill in at DH if things are going well with the move. If you think Morris is the future at 1B then you trade Aoki for a future 3B and let Davis play RF or something of that sort. If he learns 1B than 1 of the 4 guys we have that he could fill in for will likely get hurt at some point and make room for him.

[monty57]

Signing the 2001 version of Barry Bonds to play left field would not be worth putting Braun back at third.

 

I'd guess Davis will be a bench player this year and will get a couple hundred PAs as the primary RH bat off the bench, designated hitter (assuming that doesn't go to Gonzalez once Hart's back) and fill-in during Braun's annual week missed with an oblique strain. Next offseason, if Davis and/or Schafer dominate in their 100-200 PAs, Melvin will contemplate trading Aoki, Braun will move to RF (if Davis looks better than Schafer), or Schafer will play RF with Davis as the 4th OF.

 

If, in the limited PAs they receive this year, Davis and/or Schafer do not dominate, the team will assume that they are career backups, potentially getting a chance to start in 4-5 years when Gomez and Aoki's contracts are up. After sitting the bench for four seasons, they will shine in their 30-year-old season when they finally get a chance to start, prompting Melvin to sign them to eight-figure extensions.

[clancyphile]

It's astounding to me how many people would be okay with Braun "defending" at 3B. The guy can't play the position, plain & simple.

 

And the fact that some are willing to move Braun to a position where he'd hurt the team incredibly badly to clear a spot for Davis shows just how devoid our farm system is of bats at the moment. I like Davis, fwiw.

 

An OPS of .943 over the last six seasons buys a lot of leeway on defense.

 

Braun still won Rookie of the Year in 2005 at third base, and finished 24th in the MVP voting.

 

And figure that keeping Braun at third does open a slot for Davis. In 2012, it would have been easier/cheaper to find a LF than to overpay for A-Ram. Or to replace Carlos Lee after 2005, why not pluck a top-flight LF from free agency?

[TooLiveBrew]

Braun's defense was so bad, it cut waaaaay into his overall value. Did you even watch him there? Braun is not a third baseman. End of story.

[monty57]

Well sure, it's easier to find a good hitting LF than it is a good hitting 3B... that's because it's easier to play defense at LF than at 3B. If Braun ever sees the infield again, it will be at the end of his contract when he's lost his speed and gets moved to 1B. I think it's more likely that they'll still keep him in the OF even in that situation.

 

Khris Davis himself has said he couldn't play first, and his arm isn't strong enough to play RF, so his path to becoming a starter in the majors is either at LF or DH. The Brewers don't have a DH, so either Braun gets moved to RF (he does have the arm for that position) or Braun gets hurt. I hope it's not the latter, and I don't see it being the former until at least next offseason. This season, Davis will either be on the Brewers' bench or starting in LF in Nashville. Either way, he will have to continue to swing a very hot bat if he wants a starting role in Milwaukee, as he would have to convince Melvin to trade a "proven" veteran with a lot of team control in either Aoki or Gomez. That would be a good option, but I'm not holding my breath believing Melvin will trade a "proven" vet to let a rookie play.

 

Of course, either Aoki or Gomez could completely bomb this season. My money would be on Gomez, but he's signed to a big, guaranteed contract, so he'd still play. Therefore, Aoki is really the guy Davis has to outplay, and then he's competing with Schafer, who actually could play excellent defense in RF and should be a capable MLB hitter who could lead off, which we'd need if Aoki is being replaced.

 

In other words, the odds are not in favor of Davis getting a lot of playing time with the Brewers. He really needs someone to get hurt.

[gregmag]

IIRC, what Davis said, in response to a question, was that he had tried 1B and it didn't go well. I may be misremembering, but I don't think he said he "couldn't play" the position, and anyway, his opinion about that isn't the one I care about.

 

I can imagine concluding based on substantial evidence that Davis couldn't play 1B. Some people can't. But generally speaking, it's the easiest and least important defensive position on the diamond. Given how much sense it makes to get Davis into the lineup there -- we have an MVP in LF, we're talking about playing an out-machine backup ss at 1B -- I would want to make a very serious effort to convert Davis to 1B before concluding that it wasn't an option. If that means train him on the job in Milwaukee, fine; if it means starting him at 1B at AAA, fine.

 

I've long advocated moving Hart, so I'm in favor of moving him when he gets back, unless during that time Davis proves he can't play 1B AND Morris proves he can't hit AAA pitching. Sitting here right now, I think the odds that keeping Hart would be better for the Brewers than moving him, all things (production, salary, future flexibility, talent distribution) considered, seem very long.

[logan82]

Some people are just not infielders. We know this from watching Braun.

[MadScientist]

Davis will get 50 games this year in left field when Braun is suspended.

 

(I wish I could put this in blue, but with the way the witch hunt is going I think it will happen.)

[lcbj68c]

 

(I wish I could put this in blue, but with the way the witch hunt is going I think it will happen.)

 

Wouldn't a Braun suspension be 100 games? Officially, that would be a second violation or a second positive test. I've heard that just because the suspension was overturned on appeal doesn't negate the violation or test and that any suspension would be 100 games. Though I can't find any decisive language in documents online or otherwise.

[paul253]

This whole situation just goes to show how much of an advantage AL teams have. Khris Davis would be our every day DH if we were in the AL and we wouldn't even be thinking twice about it. But here we are talking about which player can change positions so we can get our best team out there.

 

I don't care what MLB picks but make a dam decision on the DH! It's crap that NL teams have to continue throwing pitchers up to the plate while AL teams can pay someone to do nothing but hit.

[jjkoestler]

What is Davis' trade value at this point? I like his bat, but there just isn't a spot for him on this club. I'd prefer trading him for another prospect rather than having him sit on the bench.

[Ennder]

 

(I wish I could put this in blue, but with the way the witch hunt is going I think it will happen.)

 

Wouldn't a Braun suspension be 100 games? Officially, that would be a second violation or a second positive test. I've heard that just because the suspension was overturned on appeal doesn't negate the violation or test and that any suspension would be 100 games. Though I can't find any decisive language in documents online or otherwise.

 

Braun has never failed a drug test. Once it is appealed it is like it never happened.

 

It is extremely unlikely that Braun is suspended even if they find someone that is willing to say they saw him buy steroids. The players union is way too strong for that. Just because they say they are going hardcore after Braun doesn't mean they think there is a chance they can suspend him. It is just there for the media to eat up and talk about.

[CheezWizHed]

It's astounding to me how many people would be okay with Braun "defending" at 3B.

 

clancyphile only counts as one person you know.

[Warning Track Power]

What is Davis' trade value at this point? I like his bat, but there just isn't a spot for him on this club. I'd prefer trading him for another prospect rather than having him sit on the bench.

Agreed. I like Davis and think he could be a great bench bat this year, but isn't that just limiting what he could be? If he could be packaged for a Porcello or Bud Norris type, I might be more inclined to go that route because I don't think Gomez and/or Aoki is going to fail in CF or RF.

[xisxisxis]

clancyphile only counts as one person you know.

 

Even if he posts it in every thread and in every post.

[liveforoctober]

What is Davis' trade value at this point? I like his bat, but there just isn't a spot for him on this club. I'd prefer trading him for another prospect rather than having him sit on the bench.

Agreed. I like Davis and think he could be a great bench bat this year, but isn't that just limiting what he could be? If he could be packaged for a Porcello or Bud Norris type, I might be more inclined to go that route because I don't think Gomez and/or Aoki is going to fail in CF or RF.

 

I'm in this camp as well. I think Davis should be an everyday guy in AAA and let him put up some gaudy numbers so he can be packaged at the trade deadline for a piece. He is blocked everywhere on the big league level by guys we control for awhile (RB, CG, NA) or by a better prospect (Morris). If the league is going after Braun than I think he has a place as a replacement this year... but otherwise his best value to the Brewers is probably going to be as a July trade piece.

[monty57]

but otherwise his best value to the Brewers is probably going to be as a July trade piece.

 

Yuck. That would mean that we were trading away six years of someone who could be an above average MLB hitter for 2-3 months of a rent-a-player to try to help us get the second wild card spot.

 

I'd rather let him put up those same gaudy numbers so that Melvin could trade Aoki or Gomez next offseason for a good player we'd control for years to come. I have no doubt in my mind that Braun could easily play RF, and that he would gladly make the switch next offseason if it meant getting another good bat into the Milwaukee lineup to help the team win.

[clancyphile]

but otherwise his best value to the Brewers is probably going to be as a July trade piece.

 

Yuck. That would mean that we were trading away six years of someone who could be an above average MLB hitter for 2-3 months of a rent-a-player to try to help us get the second wild card spot.

 

I'd rather let him put up those same gaudy numbers so that Melvin could trade Aoki or Gomez next offseason for a good player we'd control for years to come. I have no doubt in my mind that Braun could easily play RF, and that he would gladly make the switch next offseason if it meant getting another good bat into the Milwaukee lineup to help the team win.

 

But then do you dump Aoki, probably the only leadoff option on the Brewers (and under control for five years), or do you deal Gomez, who just got a three-year extension after a career year?

 

Logically, at this point, I'd have Davis in LF every day at AAA for 2013. That should buy the Crew a year to look at options. Then, we need a hard look at those options.

 

Here's where I'd stand if I called the shots for the Crew:

1. I would rather trade A-Ram and put Braun at third. I know, old topic, but right now, I want to have Khris Davis for as many of the six years as possible. Otherwise, the Crew gets low-balled in any trade offers.

2. I want insurance if Gomez flames out. That's likely to be Schaefer, but I may put Gomez and see if someone will buy high.

[monty57]

But then do you dump Aoki, probably the only leadoff option on the Brewers (and under control for five years), or do you deal Gomez, who just got a three-year extension after a career year?

 

Obviously neither is going anywhere right now, but one of them could easily be traded next offseason if Davis has a good year this year (either everyday at AAA, or as a backup OF/DH/bench bat in the majors). Both would have plenty of team control available and should have lots of trade value if they put up decent years this year.

 

It looks to me like Davis will make the MLB roster to start this season. While there is an arguement to be made that he would benefit more from everyday play in AAA, I don't think AAA matters at all to Roenicke, so the only way Davis will ever have a chance in Milwaukee is if he gets sporadic play off the bench and makes the most of it. If this happens, there is a chance (however small) that the Brewer brass would consider trading a vet to let a young player play.

 

Since Melvin doesn't like trading expensive players to make room for inexpensive ones, I think liveforoctober's wish will probably come true before mine will. Davis will probably end up as trade bait for an expensive rent-a-player. Either that or he & Schafer will be our backups for the next 3-4 years.