Gomez Extended

[Raw Biz]

Yea, "sell high" always sounds good until you discuss specific examples. Should they trade Braun and Yo right now? Because that would be selling high.

 

I don't think anyone is talking about selling high any chance you get. But simply that it's something you should consider every once in awhile, especially when it makes sense. It made sense with Hardy the year before they actually did it. It would have made sense with Hart/ARam at the break last year and Hart again before this season (and before he/Gamel got injured). If they could have gotten a good SP prospect for Axford, I would have done that as well (closers are relatively easy to find). And while I like the Gomez signing, if he's having another year like last year at the break and we're out of it, I would definitely consider trading him. Not sure the package you could get but I would target a high-reward SP and/or a 3B.

[Teatoe993]

Selling high would just turn us into the Pirates.

[joepepsi]

Selling high would just turn us into the Pirates.

Yup. Seems like we have the same points made in the past 6 years everytime someone is signed to a long term contract. Every announced contract deteriorates into a discussion about trading all our best players in their prime so we can get some really good prospects.

[Raw Biz]

Selling high would just turn us into the Pirates.

Yup. Seems like we have the same points made in the past 6 years everytime someone is signed to a long term contract. Every announced contract deteriorates into a discussion about trading all our best players in their prime so we can get some really good prospects.

 

Except that's not it at all. If you have someone who has a certain value, you have someone capable of replacing them, you can get a good return (i.e. better long-term value than you give up), and you're not competing, why not do it? Like I said, you're not just trading for the sake of trading, you're only doing so if it makes sense. Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn't. I'm a big believer in Gomez but if the right trade came along, I would definitely think about it.

[logan82]

If the Brewers had stars waiting in the wings in the minors it might be a little different but we haven't had a difference maker like Fielder, Weeks, or Braun that could be reasonably expected to perform well enough to allow Melvin to trade a star player.

Do you consider Gomez a star player? I sure don't. He is good but replaceable.

[CheezWizHed]

He is good but replaceable.

 

It really depends on which Gomez we are talking about.

 

The one of the last 1.5 years would be in the upper half or 1/3rd of MLB starters. That isn't so easy to replace.

 

The one before that, I would agree.

[James Zumstein]

Selling high would just turn us into the Pirates.

Yup. Seems like we have the same points made in the past 6 years everytime someone is signed to a long term contract. Every announced contract deteriorates into a discussion about trading all our best players in their prime so we can get some really good prospects.

 

So that they can become good players that we then trade for more prospects, and around and around we go. I have no problem trading a veteran that is about to leave via FA like we did last year with Greinke, but if we had traded Hart and Ramirez also just because we were supposedly out of it (even though it turned out that we weren't), you turn away some fans for the rest of that year plus maybe the next year. You have to continue to give your fans faith until there is no denying it, like the Astros realized 2-3 years ago.

[reillymcshane]

Interesting read on Fangraphs about Carlos.

 

An interesting tidbit:

There are things to like about the power surge Gomez has shown. It’s been gradual. It seems organic, since he’s added to his isolated slugging percentages every year. And he’s done it by hitting more fly balls every year. He’s an aggressive hitter, not known for patience, and he’s seeing fewer and fewer pitches per plate appearances. This all seems to add together to paint the picture of a player that is finally finding himself.

The author has lots of questions (questions we all have), but there are good signs that that Carlos of 2012 will be the Carlos we get the next few years.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/carlos-gomez-extended-will-the-power-come-with/

[Oldcity]

This extension has been widely praised nationally among smart baseball people. I believe it was Jay Jaffe who called it a steal. Gomez was worth more than 9 mil each of the last two years, and last year Fangraphs had him worth $15. His OBP skills are poor, but he's above average at every other skill position-wise. Very good signing, and it allows him to be tradeable down the road if Schafer really stands out or something.

[torts]

I really like this signing. now, if the front office signs Hart to a contract, I think you'll start to see the top level of MiLB players (green, gamel, schaffer) get traded off, or turned into career bench/platooners.

[faede]

Maybe we're underestimating DM, and he's the true new generation of Moneyball. He's determined the one item in the current marketplace that is overvalued is the prospect.

 

Brilliant post. I think you hit the nail on the head here. Prospects are, in my opinion, severely overvalued. I had not thought of a "moneyball" type angle on that however. I appreciate the insight.

[nate82]

I really like this signing. now, if the front office signs Hart to a contract, I think you'll start to see the top level of MiLB players (green, gamel, schaffer) get traded off, or turned into career bench/platooners.

 

Green and Gamel have very little to no value on the trade market especially Gamel with his recent injury. At best for Green you are looking at someone like Veras who the Brewers got for McGehee and that would be the best case scenario I would expect some journeyman minor league player or cash to be a more likely scenario for Green. Schafer would net the Brewers a player similar to Schafer so not much value there actually Schafer has more value to the Brewers as a 4th or 5th OF than he does on the trade market. Green is already a bench player/platoon player as it is so if he gets traded or not that is what he will be and is. I know I have argued this with you before but Green is not an everyday player and at best he is a platoon player but he is probably more along the lines of a bench player than he is a platoon player.

 

Back to Gomez, I am still not a fan of the signing but it is not as gloom and doom as some have pointed out and it is not all that rosy as others have pointed out either. The signing is nice for the Brewers I would have just done something different than signing Gomez to an extension.

[logan82]

He is good but replaceable.

 

It really depends on which Gomez we are talking about.

 

The one of the last 1.5 years would be in the upper half or 1/3rd of MLB starters. That isn't so easy to replace.

 

The one before that, I would agree.

Schafer supposedly plays very good defense and has good OBP skills so I tihink he could have come close to matching Gomez' value. That is why I am not a big fan of the signing. I don't hate it but find it really unnecessary.

[HOF4canrake]

I personally like Schafer quite a bit, but the deal made a ton of sense for the Brewers. To me, it keeps options open, including hanging on to Gomez for good value.

 

However, it also gives them the chance to deal him - perhaps this offseason - to improve the team.

 

While Schafer doesn't have an elite skill, he is a solid player overall.

 

He is a plus defender in terms of range - less speed than Gomez, but takes better routes.

His arm is not as strong as Gomez, but he is more accurate and makes the right decisions.

His power is not close to Gomez, but OBP ability much better.

A good baserunner - again not the speed or stolen base threat of Gomez - but less prone to mistakes.

[TooLiveBrew]

I personally like Schafer quite a bit, but the deal made a ton of sense for the Brewers. To me, it keeps options open, including hanging on to Gomez for good value.

 

However, it also gives them the chance to deal him - perhaps this offseason - to improve the team.

 

While Schafer doesn't have an elite skill, he is a solid player overall.

 

He is a plus defender in terms of range - less speed than Gomez, but takes better routes.

His arm is not as strong as Gomez, but he is more accurate and makes the right decisions.

His power is not close to Gomez, but OBP ability much better.

A good baserunner - again not the speed or stolen base threat of Gomez - but less prone to mistakes.

Good insight, and that's a perfect summary of Schafer. He's a more polished player than Gomez, but also clearly a 'makes the most out of his tools' type. As of right now, he's a perfect 4th OF for the Brewers. He should get plenty of spot-starts & pinch-hit PAs, and of course injuries will probably get him on the field even more.

[pete]

Does he like it here? Not the Pfister!

 

I think my track record has been pretty much anti-Melvin and its hard to figure out how to criticize him for not selling high. It always works in hindsight. Fielder was shopped unsuccessfully. Hardy was shopped and IIRC he said all he got back were offers of a 5th starter - blah. Maybe he's not a great salesman - I dunno. Other than Andrew Friedman is there a GM who will sell contributing players in a season where there is a reasonable chance of contention?

 

OBP - I find his humongous hacktastic swinging strike Ks painful too. But lets say he's a .300 OBP for his contract and he has a chance to be better. League OBP is .318. I don't want to figure it out, but what is that a single every 10 days or so? (sorry for being lazy)

 

The BP report should be attributed to an author. Is it Goldstein? I like him, his podcast was mucho entertaining and he seems like an all around good guy. But he also thought Mike Fiers might have a chance to be a middle reliever and Maldonado was not a major league player - et cetera. BP also wrote one of the most glowing accounts of CG's tools early in his prospect days.

[nate82]

Does he like it here? Not the Pfister!

 

I think my track record has been pretty much anti-Melvin and its hard to figure out how to criticize him for not selling high. It always works in hindsight. Fielder was shopped unsuccessfully. Hardy was shopped and IIRC he said all he got back were offers of a 5th starter - blah. Maybe he's not a great salesman - I dunno. Other than Andrew Friedman is there a GM who will sell contributing players in a season where there is a reasonable chance of contention?

 

I don't believe there are many GM's that will trade off parts when there is a reasonable chance of contention other than Friedman consistently. Hart was shopped a few times and I believe the best offer to ever come out for Hart was Beachy (I believe it was Beachy) and Jonathan Sanchez. Beachy would have been an interesting target for Melvin but that Sanchez for Hart trade would have been a really bad one. I believe at the time Melvin was trying to get one of the younger arms from the Giants and all the Giants wanted to give up at that time was Sanchez or nothing.

 

I know there was that far out there rumor of Hart for Cain but that wasn't even close to being realistic. You could say that Melvin should have pulled the trigger on Fielder for Cain but that is the only non trade that I can think of that would have been a big benefit to the Brewers.

[Ennder]

Friedmann only trades off guys who are getting expensive and are part of the teams depth. They didn't sell any of their big position guys, just the pitching that they have always had an overwhelming number of.

[TheCrew07]

It's depressing that 2 weeks into the season our CF of the future is already being temporarily benched, new Gomez same as the old Gomez... At least 1/3 of his hits have been doubles so far, though predictably his regular season walk rate hasn't improved yet. He's been a 1/20 (BB/PA) guy over the course of his career and is currently 0/37.

 

I'm mostly just posting this so I know where to go find the first link (if it's still active) later.

 

Carlos Gomez sits out as Roenicke searches for answers

[rluzinski]

Selling high presumes that one team knows that their player isn't as good as his recent production suggests and another team doesn't. I don't think the opportunity to do that presents itself nearly as often as fans think.

[monty57]

Selling high presumes that one team knows that their player isn't as good as his recent production suggests and another team doesn't. I don't think the opportunity to do that presents itself nearly as often as fans think.

 

That's one way of looking at it, and from that viewpoint you are correct that it's more of a crapshoot way of making trades... hoping you're right and they're wrong.

 

However, "selling high" could also mean something like trading a player when they have 1.5 years of "team control" left instead of 0.5, or trading when the receiving team would get a comp pick. In this instance, you have a high degree of certainty that the value will lower in the not-too-distant future.

 

It could also mean "trading to another team's need." If someone else really covets what you've got or has an injury (or some other reason) that causes them to perceive a "need," you can generally receive a premium value versus a "normal" market.

 

The term could also be used without making an assumpion on where the value will go in the future, but just meaning "the player has a high trade value." For instance, trading Gallardo now would be "selling high." Not necessarily "selling at the highest he will ever be," but selling when you could get good value in return.

 

Contrary to popular belief, I don't want to trade everyone away, and I certainly don't want to be negative on the future. However, when one of the first two scenarios I listed above presents itself, I think they need to be discussed, as they can allow for you to either make a trade when you've got someone else over a barrel (potentially trading Ramirez to the Dodgers last year, or shopping Axford to Detroit prior to this season when they were begging for a "closer"), or make the trade before you get yourself over a barrel (trading Hart last year when he was having a good year and had 1.5 years of control left instead of waiting until he only had a few months of team control left and wouldn't have much trade value).

 

The third scenario is probably best used either if you've got a ready-made replacement in the system or when you're ready to go into rebuild mode.

[Ennder]

We shopped Hart last year, nobody wanted him. The market got a guy who is slowing down too much to play RF and doesn't field 1B very well isn't as high as people think. All of this tank is pretty worthless though because nobody knows what the GM wanted to do but couldn't make happen. This isn't fantasy baseball, we just don't have enough information to have intelligent opinions on most of this gray area stuff being talked about.

[monty57]

We shopped Hart last year, nobody wanted him. The market got a guy who is slowing down too much to play RF and doesn't field 1B very well isn't as high as people think. All of this tank is pretty worthless though because nobody knows what the GM wanted to do but couldn't make happen. This isn't fantasy baseball, we just don't have enough information to have intelligent opinions on most of this gray area stuff being talked about.

 

But it is what a discussion board is about. If you don't talk about "gray area stuff," then you're just debating the box scores. That's not much fun. Arguing over things like whether a trade should've happened or who should start at first base are as old as baseball. The internet just allows us to discuss it with a broader group of people.

 

I just responded to Russ' note on "selling high," and that if probably has a broader definition to some. I then noted scenarios that can occur where "selling high" is a possibility, and stated that those are scenarios that should be discussed (both by the Brewers brass and by us wanna-be GMs on brewerfan.net).

 

To your points:

 

Although trading Hart was discussed here, I don't recall any articles showing that Melvin was shopping Hart last season. To the contrary, IIRC Hart was asking for an extension at that point. With Hart's recurring knee issues, I still wish we'd have traded him, and certainly hope we don't extend him.

 

I did see a lot of articles on the Ramirez-to-L.A. rumors, which must have had some merit, because Melvin commented that he didn't really want to trade a guy he'd just signed.

 

The shopping Axford to Detroit thing was just wishful thinking when Detroit was begging for a closer. I knew it wouldn't happen, but I brought it up at the time because I hoped Melvin would look into it. With the passing of a few short weeks, I wish even more that he would've given them a call.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'll also add that all too often people reference trades that "should have been made." None of us have any idea if potential trades circulating in the media have any validity whatsoever. I would bet most of the potential trades we hear about are not reality. GMs play games all the time for various reasons. Plus, just because team x is looking for a 1B, doesn't mean they would be remotely interested in Corey Hart. (As an example.) But we take bits and pieces of info, then add speculation on top of that, then say a year later the Brewers shouldhave made the trade.

 

I say all this because yes, BF is for open debate on potential trades among many other things. I just don't like it when so often people talk about potential trades as though they're a done deal if the Brewers would just sign off on it.

[TooLiveBrew]

But we take bits and pieces of info, then add speculation on top of that, then say a year later the Brewers shouldhave made the trade.

Some people have been saying for years that Melvin should be more proactive & far less reactive in trading. This isn't some cherry-picking fest. It's a legitimate difference of opinion in team-building strategy.

 

It's just so easy to be dismissive of trade ideas because they didn't happen. Melvin has demonstrated time & time again that he isn't proactive, he just reacts. I think it's only realistic to observe that his trading strategy follows suit.

 

People aren't citing specific trade rumors & belaboring the point; they've noticed genuine markets for players that Melvin could have, if he'd wanted to, likely found a good return for (like Hart & Ramírez last season). Is it possible that Melvin did everything he could to make those deals & build long-term for the franchise? Absolutely. But don't suggest that people are just playing 20/20 hindsight when Melvin hasn't made a move like that in his time as GM of the Brewers. It's not what he does. He likes not having to worry about moves for as long as possible, and makes deals when guys are pending FAs & his other option is to simply lose them to FA. He talks again & again about how he doesn't like to create a hole on his roster that he has to then fill. It's just who he is as a GM. He's very conservative.

 

If you want to assert that posters here talk about hypothetical trades as though they are done deals, I'd ask you to post an example of when that's happened. The hyperbole that gets thrown around when posters are shooting down people trying to discuss a proactive approach to team-building drives me batty.