Gomez Extended

[Ennder]

In addition to McGehee... Hardy (not when Melvin sold at the lowest point, when he could've sold high with Escobar nearing the bigs), Fielder, Morgan, Wolf, Marcum, Loe, Hart, Ramírez

 

There was no reason to trade Fielder, no real chance to trade Wolf or Marcum for any value. Loe never had any value. Hart and Hardy were hurt every time we had a chance to trade them. Ramirez has no real trade value given his contract. You see trade value where none exists is the big difference in our views here.

 

Organizations do not trade players without a plan, it just doesn't happen. Either the plan is to just get young or there is some sort of depth involved or there is a need for a playoff push, that is how baseball works. When the Rays trade it is because they have depth, the A's trade SP when they have a bunch of depth coming up etc. This notion that every time one of our players has a good year we should trade him because other teams will overpay just doesn't work.

 

On top of that for every player who is traded at least 10 guys are discussed in trades that don't end up happening that we never hear a thing about. You don't know a darn thing about what Melvin is doing and neither do I.

 

We have the core of our team locked up for multiple years with a wave of young pitching coming up and a wave of major league quality though not all star quality prospects a couple years down the road. Melvin is not some big evil with the organization.

[TooLiveBrew]

We agree to disagree. At least I do. I don't want to hijack this thread any more than I already have.

[danzig6767]

 

In addition to McGehee... Hardy (not when Melvin sold at the lowest point, when he could've sold high with Escobar nearing the bigs), Fielder, Morgan, Wolf, Marcum, Loe, Hart, Ramírez... to name a few that he could've potentially sold high on. It's not his style. It's not what he does. He's too risk-averse, which isn't entirely a bad thing. But not selling high on players is absolutely a Melvin trademark. He typically keeps players until he's squeezed every ounce of value he can get out of them.

 

You seem to believe in the same mantra that Melvin does, which I don't -- that you have to have someone ready to instantly take over from within the org. Not surprised we disagree. "The window" has been a big downfall of this organization's recent management.

 

To veer slightly back on-topic, I would love to see Melvin sell high if Gómez provides the opportunity. If Gómez produces at the plate even like he did last season, he should carry good value. I just obviously don't believe Melvin would take that opportunity even if it presented itself, based on his track record.

 

I think you're leaving something out of the equation, that being our owner.

 

While i don't believe that Attanasio is one of those very overbearing type of sports owners who demands to first approve any move that his GM makes, in watching him, he certainly isn't an owner either who just mainly has the team for an investment and thus isn't involved with the operations much.

 

Attanasio is not only very competitive and wants the team to potentially win each year, he loves seeing 2.5-3 million fans enter Miller Park. So while i agree with your general premise that Melvin pretty much is going to prefer looking at his roster from a year to year in a win now manner unless totally convinced otherwise, i think Attanasio also shares that vision. Thus, both are going to defer to keeping the productive veteran unless a situation arrives where a playoff berth looks very remote, as happened last year and lead to the Greinke trade.

 

You bring up Prince as an example. Do you really think Attanasio would have been for trading Fielder before the season started in 2011? I don't unless maybe if the Melvin was offered such a ridiculously good package of players that saying no became almost impossible.

 

Listen to Mark talk about Melvin, on top of the contract extension. I think that overall, both share similar mentalities on trying to win in the present whenever possible, but not ignoring the importance of the farm system either.

[Ennder]

We agree to disagree. At least I do. I don't want to hijack this thread any more than I already have.

 

 

Well it wasn't really about us agreeing anyway. If you ask a dozen fans what they think of Melvin I doubt you hear the term unwilling to sell high on guys mentioned by very many people. It certainly isn't what he is "known for" by most.

[Thurston Fluff]

Melvin always talks about cost certainty. Gomez is now cost certain for a few years so he has more ability to formulate a plan further into the future.

As far as the concept of when to trade someone I always felt continually trying to trade high means you are continually trading production for potential. As soon as a player gets pretty good he's gone and the next high ceiling project is on the way. Doing that continually means you never really get a guy at his peak production for long. I just don't see that as a good way to actually put good teams on the field. Just a continual repeat of teams that have the chance to be good sometime soon. There are times to do so. Rebuilding from rock bottom ala the Cubs or Astros comes to mind. Why waste someone's peak years on bad teams when you can trade them to build into a contender quicker? But not for teams with good management and stable ownership looking to continue a run of being competitive. That i think is where the Brewers are at now. So keep the guys who got us here and supplement it when we can.

[TooLiveBrew]

I always felt continually trying to trade high means you are continually trading production for potential.

 

I don't want to see him do it continually. My point, relative to potentially selling high on Gómez down the road, is that Melvin has had many opportunities to sell high and never done it with the Brewers. It's not something he does as a GM.

[Ennder]

I always felt continually trying to trade high means you are continually trading production for potential.

 

I don't want to see him do it continually. My point, relative to potentially selling high on Gómez down the road, is that Melvin has had many opportunities to sell high and never done it with the Brewers. It's not something he does as a GM.

 

But most of these opportunities you brought up weren't realistic. He has shown that if Schafer looks like a major league player he is more than willing to trade the starter at the position. He did exactly that with Hardy.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't like dealing in hypotheticals regarding players that weren't sold high, because trades that don't happen ALWAYS include potential prospects and trade chips that make possible deals look good. For all the players mentioned that weren't traded at peak value when Melvin had a chance, I want to know what the trade options were for them at that time. Also, I don't think a GM should sell high unless he has quality depth throughout the organization to replace MLB talent immediately without worrying about whether a prospect's ready for the big leagues.

 

I'd also argue that Melvin has done a good job of selling high when it comes to dealing prospects for MLB talent...think the Indians wouldn't have looked around for a better pile of prospects than the plethora of AAAA players they got from the Brewers for Sabathia if they knew how they all turned out? Wil Inman, anyone?

[James Zumstein]

It surprises me how many Brewer fans want to trade MLB talent the second a MiLB talent comes along that looks like they might be a decent, if unspectacular, player. As I said earlier, I'm very impressed with Schafer so far, and I think he will be a very nice contributor this year and beyond. But the goal every year is to win as many games as possible, and you increase your odds greatly if you have known-quantities versus potential. Lots of people get upset when the big market teams sign all of their veterans as they near FA, but when we do it those same people are upset that we did re-sign them. I truly believe that the Crew will win more games with Gomez in the everyday lineup over the next four years than they will if Schafer is, and as long as the contract isn't out of line (which I believe it is not), then we are better off going forward.

[xisxisxis]

Here's a perfect analysis of Gomez (from BP 2012):

 

Gomez has a terrible approach at the plate, but he has enough athletic ability that his “grip and rip” strategy resulted in a career-high ISO in 2011. That such a phenomenal defensive center fielder couldn't hold his job with a well-above-average rate of extra base hits is stark commentary on his inability to either make regular contact or draw walks. He's still young, though three organizations have yet to make progress with coaching his swing. The good news is that his approach lends itself to a fluky good season if he gets regular playing time, so he's a dark-horse candidate to have a surprisingly high WARP out of the blue.

 

Talk about hitting a bullseye.

 

This one deal doesn't make Melvin a bad GM. It's just part of a series of poor decisions and a reinforcement that he has absolutely no long-term plan that make him a bad GM.

[StearnsFTW]

Here's a perfect analysis of Gomez (from BP 2012):

 

Gomez has a terrible approach at the plate, but he has enough athletic ability that his “grip and rip” strategy resulted in a career-high ISO in 2011. That such a phenomenal defensive center fielder couldn't hold his job with a well-above-average rate of extra base hits is stark commentary on his inability to either make regular contact or draw walks. He's still young, though three organizations have yet to make progress with coaching his swing. The good news is that his approach lends itself to a fluky good season if he gets regular playing time, so he's a dark-horse candidate to have a surprisingly high WARP out of the blue.

 

Talk about hitting a bullseye.

 

This one deal doesn't make Melvin a bad GM. It's just part of a series of poor decisions and a reinforcement that he has absolutely no long-term plan that make him a bad GM.

 

If you (and BP apparently, not sure when in 2012 this was written) can't see an improvement in his approach I don't know what to tell you.

[sveumrules]

Gomez flyball %

2007-10 : 38.6, 39.0, 35.4, 35.5

2011-12 : 43.8, 43.2

 

Gomez home run to flyball %

2007-10 : 5.9, 4.8, 3.7, 7.1

2011-12 : 11.4, 14.3

 

So he's hitting more flyballs with a higher percentage of them going out. If he continues this trend, which I think he will, he is essentially Mike Cameron without the walks.

[MNBrew]

Here's a perfect analysis of Gomez (from BP 2012):

 

Gomez has a terrible approach at the plate, but he has enough athletic ability that his “grip and rip” strategy resulted in a career-high ISO in 2011. That such a phenomenal defensive center fielder couldn't hold his job with a well-above-average rate of extra base hits is stark commentary on his inability to either make regular contact or draw walks. He's still young, though three organizations have yet to make progress with coaching his swing. The good news is that his approach lends itself to a fluky good season if he gets regular playing time, so he's a dark-horse candidate to have a surprisingly high WARP out of the blue.

 

Talk about hitting a bullseye.

 

This one deal doesn't make Melvin a bad GM. It's just part of a series of poor decisions and a reinforcement that he has absolutely no long-term plan that make him a bad GM.

 

If you (and BP apparently, not sure when in 2012 this was written) can't see an improvement in his approach I don't know what to tell you.

The poster xisxisxis has a track record of posts that show he believes Melvin's a crappy GM no matter what rational facts are presented to the contrary, so it's not illogical to conclude that you can tell him anything that will change his mind.

 

David, do you sincerely feel that Melvin truly has no long-term plan? Or do you just disagree with what you presume his approach to be? I think he doesn't have a job if your assumption is actually the case. But Melvin hasn't become one of the most respected GMs in the business because he's inept or has no well-reasoned long-term plan. He has a delicate balance to maintain in this market with rather limited margin for error, which for the most part he's done increasingly well as time's gone on and the team's become more successful.

 

I wonder if some folks hold GMs & managers to "Eckersley-level" standards for success under the flawed premise that those outliers on the most-incredibly-successful end of the spectrum -- which are just about impossible to attain -- are actually the norms and should be used as the basis for judging all others. Rollie Fingers was one of the best closers of his time, but some would want to look at him now and contend that he wasn't so great because, well, look at how much better Eckersley was during his years as a closer. The Eckersleys & Mariano Riveras are the flukes, not the norm. For everyone who thinks Melvin's a lousy GM (or Roenicke's a lousy manager -- pick your typical brewerfan.net gripe!), I'd sure like to know who they think would come into the position with better credentials/track record and a greater certainty of better achievement. Failure to suggest legit alternatives often tends to point to closed-minded judgements.

[RobDeer 45]

I've always loved Gomez so it's hard not to love this deal. I think some of you are focusing only on his offense and forget how good he is on d. I just don't think having him around hurts us at all and When you compare him to today's market its a smart move. Trade market isn't as good as we think and too many people think its a simple move to trade guys at their peek.

[Nottso]

This video really needs a Brewers makeover.

 

 

This is just awesome. One can only hope that soundbites from this make it to the sound guy at Miller Park. Even better would be Gomez walking up to "Go Gomez, Go!"

 

As a Gomez fan I really like the signing. Gomez is just plain fun to watch play baseball.

[rwa12]

I would argue that he sold as high as he could on Greinke. As much as teams like getting prospect hauls, they often flounder. It's exciting for the fans, but like someone mentioned earlier, the Indians thought they got a treasure trove for Sabathia. They, in essence, got nothing. I think enough GMs are becoming stat savvy that it's going to be more difficult for Doug to sell high. Moneyball seems to have brought us to an era where Jim Bowden is no longer the norm. Teams are reluctant to give up big young arms unless they are ready to make the jump. The Yankees, Red Sox and teams of the like aren't handing out their prospects anymore. I agree that Mark A. wants to win, I don't think he's going to tolerate a rebuild or a deep depression in the Win column. He wants the fans, casual fans want a winner. If they can sneak into the playoffs every few years, they'll be happy. GMs don't typically last long enough to ride out a long range plan for the franchise. Fans want a long term plan, GMs want to remain employed. The best job a GM can find is taking over for someone who was planning for the future.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The hardest part of the argument between whether DM should be more aggressive on selling is knowing what the true market for the player is. My guess is he shopped Prince before his last year and didn't get the response he was looking for. Pitchers seem to be the ones that find a more robust market and the Brewers haven't had much to work with until Greinke.

 

Maybe we're underestimating DM, and he's the true new generation of Moneyball. He's determined the one item in the current marketplace that is overvalued is the prospect.

[Invader3K]

All the rumors said they tried to shop Prince after the 2010 season and had no takers, so he changed gears and acquired better starting pitching. Shouldn't a good GM change gears based on the marker?

[Blancofan1]

Gomez flyball %

2007-10 : 38.6, 39.0, 35.4, 35.5

2011-12 : 43.8, 43.2

 

Gomez home run to flyball %

2007-10 : 5.9, 4.8, 3.7, 7.1

2011-12 : 11.4, 14.3

 

So he's hitting more flyballs with a higher percentage of them going out. If he continues this trend, which I think he will, he is essentially Mike Cameron without the walks.

 

 

Not sure if this is an argument for or against the signing but it is a very good comparison. Both plus defenders with what is reported to be great clubhouse presence.

 

Cameron--12 year average after arbitration---6.3 mil/year (starting in 2000 when salaries where much lower)

Gomez--4 years after arbitration--7.0 mil/year

 

While the signing isn't a steal in my eyes, it is a very solid team friendly contract for the Brewers. He certainly has hit more flyballs the past two seasons which I think is a direct result of not living by the "With your speed, you're to hit the ball on the ground and be legging them out" philosophy. Either that or Gomez is just not as tired since Dale Svuem left and he doesn't have to do 20 pushups every time he hits a ball in the air.

[StearnsFTW]

Here's a perfect analysis of Gomez (from BP 2012):

 

Gomez has a terrible approach at the plate, but he has enough athletic ability that his “grip and rip” strategy resulted in a career-high ISO in 2011. That such a phenomenal defensive center fielder couldn't hold his job with a well-above-average rate of extra base hits is stark commentary on his inability to either make regular contact or draw walks. He's still young, though three organizations have yet to make progress with coaching his swing. The good news is that his approach lends itself to a fluky good season if he gets regular playing time, so he's a dark-horse candidate to have a surprisingly high WARP out of the blue.

 

Talk about hitting a bullseye.

 

This one deal doesn't make Melvin a bad GM. It's just part of a series of poor decisions and a reinforcement that he has absolutely no long-term plan that make him a bad GM.

 

If you (and BP apparently, not sure when in 2012 this was written) can't see an improvement in his approach I don't know what to tell you.

The poster xisxisxis has a track record of posts that show he believes Melvin's a crappy GM no matter what rational facts are presented to the contrary, so it's not illogical to conclude that you can tell him anything that will change his mind.

David, do you sincerely feel that Melvin truly has no long-term plan? Or do you just disagree with what you presume his approach to be? I think he doesn't have a job if your assumption is actually the case. But Melvin hasn't become one of the most respected GMs in the business because he's inept or has no well-reasoned long-term plan. He has a delicate balance to maintain in this market with rather limited margin for error, which for the most part he's done increasingly well as time's gone on and the team's become more successful.

 

I wonder if some folks hold GMs & managers to "Eckersley-level" standards for success under the flawed premise that those outliers on the most-incredibly-successful end of the spectrum -- which are just about impossible to attain -- are actually the norms and should be used as the basis for judging all others. Rollie Fingers was one of the best closers of his time, but some would want to look at him now and contend that he wasn't so great because, well, look at how much better Eckersley was during his years as a closer. The Eckersleys & Mariano Riveras are the flukes, not the norm. For everyone who thinks Melvin's a lousy GM (or Roenicke's a lousy manager -- pick your typical brewerfan.net gripe!), I'd sure like to know who they think would come into the position with better credentials/track record and a greater certainty of better achievement. Failure to suggest legit alternatives often tends to point to closed-minded judgements.

 

 

I didn't realize that. Thanks for the heads-up.

[JohnBriggs12]

Gomez flyball %

2007-10 : 38.6, 39.0, 35.4, 35.5

2011-12 : 43.8, 43.2

 

Gomez home run to flyball %

2007-10 : 5.9, 4.8, 3.7, 7.1

2011-12 : 11.4, 14.3

 

So he's hitting more flyballs with a higher percentage of them going out. If he continues this trend, which I think he will, he is essentially Mike Cameron without the walks.

 

Excellent comparison to Mike Cameron. I might add that he compares to Mike Cameron in his prime who was better than the version the Brewers had late in his career. Really the only difference between the two can be summed up in one word: patience. Cameron saw more pitches, and as a result had a higher walk rate but also a significantly higher strikeout rate as swinging more early in counts by Gomez does result in more balls in play. The key for Gomez going forward is finding that balance.

[fondybrewfan]

For the vast majority of Melvin's tenure; the Brewers have not been in a position to "sell high". They have been serious contendors or at least on the borderline of contending going back for a while now. Selling your good players at the height of there success isn't a great model to keep the team in contention and also keep 3 million paying customers. If the Brewers had stars waiting in the wings in the minors it might be a little different but we haven't had a difference maker like Fielder, Weeks, or Braun that could be reasonably expected to perform well enough to allow Melvin to trade a star player.

[logan82]

Gomez flyball %

2007-10 : 38.6, 39.0, 35.4, 35.5

2011-12 : 43.8, 43.2

 

Gomez home run to flyball %

2007-10 : 5.9, 4.8, 3.7, 7.1

2011-12 : 11.4, 14.3

 

So he's hitting more flyballs with a higher percentage of them going out. If he continues this trend, which I think he will, he is essentially Mike Cameron without the walks.

Mike Cameron without the walks seems pretty accurate. Keep in mind though that those walks added a lot of value so the gap between them is still pretty big.

 

Gomez and Cameron have an almost identical career K%.

[chadomac]

For the vast majority of Melvin's tenure; the Brewers have not been in a position to "sell high". They have been serious contendors or at least on the borderline of contending going back for a while now. Selling your good players at the height of there success isn't a great model to keep the team in contention and also keep 3 million paying customers. If the Brewers had stars weighting in the wings in the minors it might be a little different but we haven't had a difference maker like Fielder, Weeks, or Braun that could be reasonably expected to perform well enough to allow Melvin to trade a star player.

 

This is absolutely correct. Since 2007ish, the team hasn't been in a position to sell high on most of their valuable players. They needed their valuable players to contend.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, "sell high" always sounds good until you discuss specific examples. Should they trade Braun and Yo right now? Because that would be selling high.

 

As for Gomez, that deal is calculated risk that frnakly a team like the Brewers needs to take. There is an upside, and the downside is manageable. I don't think Logan Schaefer's development factors in in any way. In fact, it may help his development to have him start his career as a 4th or 5th OF for a year or two.