Gomez Extended

[The stache]

Everybody please stop singing the praises of Logan Schafer like he's the second coming. I like the kid, too, a lot, actually, and think he could be a good player in the Majors. But a little perspective here.

 

Carlos Gomez is already a Gold Glove caliber center fielder who would have approached 30 home runs and 50 stolen bases had he played all of the season. His OPS in 2012 at the Major League level was .768. Logan Schafer's OPS at AAA last year was .770.

 

Now, is Gomez going to do that again? Maybe, but likely not. But at least he's done it at the Major League level. Schafer has not. If Gomez plays the entire 2013 season, 15-20 homers and 40 + stolen bases is a good bet, with excellent defense. Compare that to what BJ Upton did statistically last season. He only had a .298 OBP, and a .752 OPS. He did hit 28 home runs, and stole 31 bases, but the last four seasons, Upton has regressed. He's hitting .242 with a .316 OBP and a .736 OPS from 2009 to 2012. And he's going to make $12.5 mil in 2013.

 

Upton had 181 more plate appearances than Gomez. Yet he scored only 7 more runs than Carlos did.

 

I think these two are headed in opposite directions. I think Carlos is finally starting to live up to some of his immense potential, and if he even approaches what he did last year, we got a bargain.

[trwi7]

But at least he's done it at the Major League level. Schafer has not.

 

I hate this line of reasoning so much.

[The stache]

There's nothing wrong with the line of reasoning whatsoever.

 

First base is already completely in flux with Hart and Gamel being out. Should we throw center field into that mess, too, because some kid we have in the minors might be the answer? Signing Gomez to a short contract is a good idea. If Schafer is able to play at the Major League level, he'll show it, and we'll have attractive trade bait. But I'm not for letting Gomez get away in the interim.

[monty57]

To the best of my recollection, Upton has never been benched. Gomez has been benched (or reduced to the RH side of a platoon) by the Mets, Twins and Brewers. If his defense were really worth $5-6MM/year, teams would not have benched him, as he's always played good defense.

 

I don't love or hate this move. I think it's less than he would have received if he were a free agent today, but I do feel it was unnecessary, as we have in-house replacements who would play for league minimum. It doesn't seem like a strategic use of a limited resource (money), and I worry that there is way too much chance that Gomez will go back to the guy he's been for most of his career that many here wanted to see thrown away (remember the posts saying the Hardy trade was the worst in team history?)

 

Gomez had a decent year last year, and he's an exciting player. Much of his improvement last year came from an increase in HR. Is this sustainable? Bill Hall hit 35 HR and got an extension for it. I hope Gomez is able to keep the balls flying out of the park. If he does, he's worth more then the contract. If he doesn't, he's basically the guy teams have continually used in a platoon, and fans have jeered.

 

btw, we now have $62.55MM tied up for 2014 in seven players (Braun, Weeks, Ramirez, Gallardo, Gomez, Gorzellany, Lucroy). Axford will probably make $7-8MM, so around $70MM for eight guys. Cot's is pretty amazing, as they've already updated Gomez's contract.

[docduany]

Can Logan be a blue chip difference maker? I would argue not. Logan has had trouble staying healthy and doesn't project to be a plus plus player with any skill. Like the 'stache', I really do like Logan. Love that he hits from the left side, plays a good center field, has decent speed, gap power,and good OBP. But nothing Logan has shown thus far is "special".

 

Gomez can be special. Will he? I don't know. His speed is world class as is he defense. If his bat continues to improve than he could be an All-Star caliber player at a great price. He could also regress and continue to make bone headed plays. I have heard on this board (and agree with) the thinking that we need more difference makers coming up through the ranks. Gomez can be that type of difference maker. By this extension Doug & Co. say he's going to continue to improve.

 

So is a Gomez worth more than Logan plus 27 million? We'll know in 4 years.

[TheCrew07]

These are the kind of risks the Brewers need to take IMO because if Carlos can keep his OPS at least in that .725-.800 range, it's a bargain given his defense and base running, especially with how salaries are exploding through baseball.

 

I completely disagree, I don't agree with spending money on 1 year wonders. Gomez isn't a top prospect who just broke out, he's an established MLB player with a terrible track record who had 1 good year.

 

My first thought... Bill Hall part 2... a fantastic natural athlete who gets rewarded for 1 break out year but never really harnesses his talent.

 

Gomez' best offensive season thus far was only a .768 OPS at age 26 and he hit 19 HRs but oddly he only hit 19 2Bs. Looking at stats over the years I've basically come to expect almost twice as many 2B as HR for a player in a season, especially for players with speed, I just don't trust Gomez' numbers at all. When Hall broke out at age 25 age he posted an .837 OPS and then followed that up at age 26 with a .899 OPS and I wasn't in favor of signing him long-term, I wanted to keep Hardy and trade Hall. I actually thought Hall was going to be a .800+ player and I'm not convinced that Gomez is legitimately a .700+ OPS player.

 

If Gomez returns to a sub .700 OPS player this is a horrible contract, escalating salaries in MLB or not.

 

I hope I'm wrong.

[monty57]

I have heard on this board (and agree with) the thinking that we need more difference makers coming up through the ranks. Gomez can be that type of difference maker.

 

The reason we need them "coming up through the ranks" is that they will be "Brewers property" at a very low price for six years, and they allow us to trade away older "established" guys nearing the end of their contracts. We can then extend the young "core guys" to far less expensive extensions. We could afford 50 Lucroy contracts, but we could only afford 10-12 Gomez contracts or about 8-9 Weeks contracts. We need 25 guys on the roster.

 

Gomez is not "coming up through the ranks." He's extended the same way Weeks and Gallardo were extended, and that gets expensive. Melvin likes "proven" and is willing to wait and pay for it. Unfortunately, that means that our position player prospects will never be able to "prove" themselves, and we're now to the point that we'll always spend most of our payroll on a few expensive players and fill in the rest of the roster with whatever we can afford.

 

On a related note, I think this means that Melvin must agree with most of the prospect watchers out there, that even though we hype guys on this board, he doesn't seem to think that any of our position prospects are good enough to merit MLB playing time in the next 3-5 years. If that's the case, I hope he's sly enough to fool others into trading for them, because Schafer, the two Davises and Gindl just lost most of their value to the Brewers.

[Invader3K]

I don't see this as the team writing off Logan. Teams need a fourth outfielder, and he could slide into right field if Aoki regresses, for example.

[Ennder]

I have heard this a couple times now but you can't really compare Bill Hall to Carlos Gomez because they are nothing at all alike.

 

Bill Hall had massive platoon splits even when he was good, Gomez has no splits. There was never a reason to think Hall could be successful against RHP.

 

Bill Hall struck even more than Gomez and that is saying a lot. Hall didn't really have a plus skill while Gomez obviously does with his speed.

 

Bill Hall was a truly awful baserunner. Gomez is an elite one that sprinkles in some completely boneheaded mistakes.

 

Gomez's "breakout" was actually in 2011 and not 2012 and it was from a change in approach that suited his game, so it feels much more sustainable. It is completely supported by his peripheral stats as well with the hiked FB% and slightly improved zone numbers.

 

Hall kind of came out of nowhere while Gomez has always been a player scouts liked.

 

Hall was still under team control without the contract so the timing didn't make a lot of sense, Gomez has 1 year left under team control. This is the time you look to extend guys if you want them the next season. If we don't extend him now there is almost no chance he stays. They decided they wanted him so did the completely natural move.

 

Finally offense is down league wide so his stats are better than they look offensively. They aren't good by any means but it isn't as bad as those numbers used to be.

 

I don't think it is a very close comparison. We can't be scared of signing every player who has a good year just because Bill Hall got a bad deal.

[yoshii8]

As long as he stays healthy, I think this has a chance to be a very good deal on the Brewers end. He seems like a very hard worker, and a great team player, I'm happy to have him as a Brewer for the next 4 seasons!

[Roderick]

I feel the deal signed is fair to both parties. But the Brewers need to be a team that trades away the veteran when they have a comparable min. wage replacement ready. That is the only way to have the funds available to pay free agents for the holes in the roster that the minors leagues aren't ready to fill.

 

The first thought is that the Brewers don't think much of Schafer, but if Gomez replicates 2012 there is trade value in his contract and they can give Schafer 2013 to pick up #4OF at bats and prove he is a starting CF in the league (because Schafer has diddly squat value in a trade right now). If they give him two starts a week (1-Gomez, 1-Aoki), plus pinch hitting/running that would give him plenty of playing time.

 

So as long as DM is willing to trade Gomez when it is time, I like the signing.

[Ennder]

I feel the deal signed fair. But the Brewers need to be a team that trades away the veteran when they have a comparable min. wage replacement ready. That is the only way to have the funds available to pay free agents for the holes in the roster that the minors leagues aren't ready to fill.

 

The problem is there is no market for a CF right now. The Mets are about the only team really looking for one and I doubt they are looking to bring back Gomez and they aren't looking for a guy with only 1 year left. I do agree with you though that if he has a great year and Schafer shows something that this contract has a lot of trade value a year or two from now.

[Roderick]

I feel the deal signed fair. But the Brewers need to be a team that trades away the veteran when they have a comparable min. wage replacement ready. That is the only way to have the funds available to pay free agents for the holes in the roster that the minors leagues aren't ready to fill.

 

The problem is there is no market for a CF right now.

 

I wouldn't have traded him now. Obviously the time would have been before the Twins traded away their guys and the free agents signed. But only DM knows what he would have got and how he felt about Schafer.

[Warning Track Power]

One thing I have found on this board over the years is the tendency to greatly overvalue some of the in house prospects. Taylor Green was 2012s version of this and Logan Schafer is the 2013 version. While I think that both of these players could be contributors on an everyday basis, I don't think they project as anything more than say a Daniel Descalso in Green's case or a Jon Jay in Schafer's. In other words, I wouldn't trade a Hart, Ramirez or Weeks to open a spot for Green, nor would I be willing to give up on Gomez to open a spot for Schafer. Schafer and Green are cheap insurance in the event of injuries as bench players moving forward.

[Ennder]

To show people that this has been more than a 1 year sample here. Going back to May 1st of 2011 here are his stats.

 

.249 AVG, .294 OBP - Yuck

.459 SLG, .753 OPS - not bad for a CF

87% SB success - Elite

20.72 AB/HR with 25 HR in 518 AB.

 

The breakout came in 2011 not just 2012. In fact in the 2nd half of 2011 he hit to a .819 OPS.

[TooLiveBrew]

I feel the deal signed is fair to both parties. But the Brewers need to be a team that trades away the veteran when they have a comparable min. wage replacement ready. That is the only way to have the funds available to pay free agents for the holes in the roster that the minors leagues aren't ready to fill.

 

The first thought is that the Brewers don't think much of Schafer, but if Gomez replicates 2012 there is trade value in his contract and they can give Schafer 2013 to pick up #4OF at bats and prove he is a starting CF in the league (because Schafer has diddly squat value in a trade right now). If they give him two starts a week (1-Gomez, 1-Aoki), plus pinch hitting/running that would give him plenty of playing time.

 

So as long as DM is willing to trade Gomez when it is time, I like the signing.

http://i.imgur.com/Szm0iVx.gif

 

I want to believe he can change, but Melvin's inability to sell high on players is one of his trademarks. I sure hope Gómez builds upon his success at the plate in 2012, because Melvin won't move him unless Gómez has proven to be a complete waste of money (or when we reach the trade deadline in his final contract season).

 

Going forward, at the very least the Brewers will have one of the best defensive outfields in MLB with Braun/Gómez/Aoki/Schafer. I like Carlos, and really want to see him continue to improve on offense.

[Ennder]

but Melvin's inability to sell high on players is one of his trademarks

 

I don't really agree with that. People always want players traded without having any sort of reasonable depth behind them or when player value isn't really as high as they think. This is just one of those items people make up in their heads. The Brewers have never had any depth and it is pretty hard to trade players when you have no depth.

[TooLiveBrew]

but Melvin's inability to sell high on players is one of his trademarks

 

I don't really agree with that. People always want players traded without having any sort of reasonable depth behind them or when player value isn't really as high as they think. This is just one of those items people make up in their heads. The Brewers have never had any depth and it is pretty hard to trade players when you have no depth.

It's definitely a Melvin trademark.

[DoubleSwitch]

Logan Schafer should still see plenty of playing time as a 4th outfielder, and chances are one of the starting outfielders will see some time on the DL. If we let Gomez walk do we have another Schafer in the system who can play plus defense at all three spots with a decent bat? I can't think of anyone. I really like what I've seen from Gomez these last couple years and with his defense and base running anything he provides with the bat is gravy. The odds are very good this deal will provide surplus value which means we can always trade Gomez if Schafer shows something.

[CheezWizHed]

who can play plus defense at all three spots with a decent bat?

 

Gindl is comparable to Schafer. The main difference is that Schafer is good defensively in center while Gindl would only be passable (i.e. a short term backup).

 

I've always been higher on Schafer as I think he has a better chance to be a starting CFer, but as a 4th OFer, they are comparable.

[logan82]

When is Schafer going to see playing time? The games Braun takes off? It makes no sense to put him in RF in place of Aoki. His best chance for playing time is if Gomez gets hurt again.

 

The odds are very good this deal will provide surplus value which means we can always trade Gomez if Schafer shows something.

I really wish Melvin was capable of this.

[Ennder]

It's definitely a Melvin trademark.

 

In your mind.

 

The last time we had any sort of organization depth in the system it led to a trade of Hardy for Gomez. Melvin doesn't trade random guys with no plan at the position just because they had one decent year which doesn't really pump a players trade value up much anyway. If you want to construe that as some sort of trademark more power to you.

 

Casey McGehee is about the only guy I can think of that would have made sense trading who we had a reasonable chance of replacing from within. We had chances to trade Hart or Weeks but they always came with injuries that suppressed the value. We did trade Hardy. The window at the time made no sense at all to trade Fielder in. We haven't had any type of depth in pitching where a trade has made any kind of sense. The majority of trade value in the organization has been in the minor leagues and he has pulled off those trades and almost none of the guys he has traded have become consistently good players so he seems to be doing an ok job at it.

[chewy522]

I don't understand the notion that Schafer will not get any playing time. If Schafer is the only other legitimate outfielder on the roster, he will get plenty of at bats throughout the season through spot starts, pitch hitting, and an injury to any of the three starting outfielders. Other teams have been able to develop young players very well by utilizing them as a 4th outfielder with a decent amount of playing time (i.e. Jon Jay, Allen Craig, Chris Heisy). Honestly, I prefer to have one really strong 4th outfielder as opposed to a 4th and 5th that are very comparable in skill. This way, Schafer will get plenty of reps and have a valuable role on this team.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's definitely a Melvin trademark.

 

In your mind.

 

The last time we had any sort of organization depth in the system it led to a trade of Hardy for Gomez. Melvin doesn't trade random guys with no plan at the position just because they had one decent year which doesn't really pump a players trade value up much anyway. If you want to construe that as some sort of trademark more power to you.

 

Casey McGehee is about the only guy I can think of that would have made sense trading who we had a reasonable chance of replacing from within. We had chances to trade Hart or Weeks but they always came with injuries that suppressed the value. We did trade Hardy. The window at the time made no sense at all to trade Fielder in. We haven't had any type of depth in pitching where a trade has made any kind of sense. The majority of trade value in the organization has been in the minor leagues and he has pulled off those trades and almost none of the guys he has traded have become consistently good players so he seems to be doing an ok job at it.

In addition to McGehee... Hardy (not when Melvin sold at the lowest point, when he could've sold high with Escobar nearing the bigs), Fielder, Morgan, Wolf, Marcum, Loe, Hart, Ramírez... to name a few that he could've potentially sold high on. It's not his style. It's not what he does. He's too risk-averse, which isn't entirely a bad thing. But not selling high on players is absolutely a Melvin trademark. He typically keeps players until he's squeezed every ounce of value he can get out of them.

 

You seem to believe in the same mantra that Melvin does, which I don't -- that you have to have someone ready to instantly take over from within the org. Not surprised we disagree. "The window" has been a big downfall of this organization's recent management.

 

To veer slightly back on-topic, I would love to see Melvin sell high if Gómez provides the opportunity. If Gómez produces at the plate even like he did last season, he should carry good value. I just obviously don't believe Melvin would take that opportunity even if it presented itself, based on his track record.

[xisxisxis]

Now that my favorite baseball team is the Cardinals..... I LOVE this deal.....