White Sox sign Chris Sale, 5 yrs. $32M

[Ennder]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/03/white-sox-to-extend-chris-sale.html

 

Sale's deal covers his remaining pre-arbitration season, his three arbitration seasons, and at least one free agent year. The contract also includes club options for the 2018 and 2019 seasons. The 23-year-old will earn $850K in 2013, $3.5MM in 2014, $6MM in 2015, $9.15MM in 2016 and $12MM in 2017. The White Sox have options for $2018 ($12.5MM) and 2019 ($13.5MM) with $1MM buyouts.

 

Considering we have young pitching coming and these kind of deals will set the market for early extensions I'm curious what others think?

 

I think given Sale's path that this is extremely risky for the team. I mean it was less than a year ago they were moving him to the bullpen because they were worried about his health.

[chadomac]

I would rather play the "wait and see" game for pitchers.

 

If you have them under team control for awhile and they're going to be cheap at first, I don't see the point of locking one up until you've seen some real consistency AND you are able to buy out at least a couple of free agent seasons.

[monty57]

I can't speak to this particular deal, but I think this type of deal is the wave of the future. I much prefer this type of extension to the less "flame-out risky" but far more "cost risky" method of waiting until the player only has a year or so left on his contract. I hope the Brewers can find "core" players when they are young (around 24 or under) and sign them to these type of deals. Right now, I think the logical targets will be Segura and Peralta. There's certainly risk involved, but getting 8-9 years out of good young players instead of 6 and getting a bit of a discount in return for the certainty is probably a good idea. You just need the patience to only focus on the top talent while they're still young and not on marginal talent guys like McGehee or guys you will already control through their prime like Axford.

 

For example, Fiers is too old to get this type extension, so we should just let him run through pre-arby/arby and you'll get his prime without taking the risk. Rogers has too much injury risk to ever be considered. Guys like Schafer, Burgos, Thornberg, Morris, Davis, etc will all probably be in their mid-to-late 20's when/if they get starting gigs for the Brewers, so they probably shouldn't be candidates. Hopefully some of the MiLB starting pitching takes a step forward in the next year or so to get themselves to consideration, and some of the low-minors position players live up to their potential and make the Brewers at a young age.

[pete]

I'll be surprised if Sale makes it through this season healthy.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think it's a brilliant move. Look teams risk $32 million all the time on middling guys who are past their prime. With the price of top of the line pitching what it is, it's well worth the injury risk that frankly all pitchers have. Sale put up Ace like numbers last year in a band box. The guy has tremendous stuff. Even if he were at some point to need TJ surgery, they are still likely to get 3-4 high quality years. He pitched out of the pen in 2011 because he nearly went directly from junior college to the major leagues, and didn't have the innings in his arm. I like that strategy a lot more than shutting down a guy in season.

[JimH5]

If any of the Brewers pitchers have a "Sale 2012-like" season, then it may be worth considering.

 

To this point, none of them have proven to be worth more than a year-by-year look.

 

I like the tactic, giving star-potential players some guaranteed money to buy out arbitration and free agency years, but I don't think the Brewers have anybody with that upside just yet.

[monty57]

If any of the Brewers pitchers have a "Sale 2012-like" season, then it may be worth considering.

 

To this point, none of them have proven to be worth more than a year-by-year look.

 

I like the tactic, giving star-potential players some guaranteed money to buy out arbitration and free agency years, but I don't think the Brewers have anybody with that upside just yet.

 

If Segura would sign the same deal Lucroy signed, I'd probably do it now as I think he's pretty likely to live up to that deal. I think it's more likely that the Brewers will keep an eye on both Peralta and Segura this season and if one or both have good seasons, they will be offered a long-term extension next offseason. Hopefully we can find others over the next few years who are worthy of getting this type of extension, but the pool's pretty shallow. I'd say Jungmann, Bradley, Roache and Coulter would be the most likely, but they've all got a lot to prove before that'll happen.

[Roderick]

If you have them under team control for awhile and they're going to be cheap at first, I don't see the point of locking one up until you've seen some real consistency AND you are able to buy out at least a couple of free agent seasons.

 

I think why you are seeing this is that team's aren't thinking that the arby years are that "cheap" anymore. So they are actually protecting a little against the cost of arby going up too.

[JimH5]

Lucroy had played more than 200 MLB games when he was extended, Segura has played fewer than 50.

 

So I wouldn't move on him until at least the end of the season. There's plenty of time, and no need to risk the guaranteed money.

 

I hope he and the others perform well enough to make it something to consider.

[monty57]

If you have them under team control for awhile and they're going to be cheap at first, I don't see the point of locking one up until you've seen some real consistency AND you are able to buy out at least a couple of free agent seasons.

 

I think why you are seeing this is that team's aren't thinking that the arby years are that "cheap" anymore. So they are actually protecting a little against the cost of arby going up too.

 

And, by giving certainty to the player, they will sign for less than they would get if they went year-to-year (otherwise, don't do it). If the most talented player in the world gets hurt in his pre-arby years, he will have to go somewhere and find a job for the rest of his life. With a deal which guarantees they will be paid tens of millions of dollars no matter what, they know they will be set.

 

Lucroy probably could've made a lot more than $11MM (I believe that's his guarantee) over the term of his contract had he gone year-to-year and then hit free agency. However, if his wife drops some more suitcases, he knows he'll still get his $11MM, so it was worth the risk of losing out on potential money in order to guarantee a whole lot of money. Some players (like Fielder) wanted to go year-to-year, and that's fine. We should build our "core" around players who will take this type of deal... we just need more young players in our system who merit the offer.

 

Lucroy had played more than 200 MLB games when he was extended, Segura has played fewer than 50.

 

So I wouldn't move on him until at least the end of the season. There's plenty of time, and no need to risk the guaranteed money.

 

I hope he and the others perform well enough to make it something to consider.

 

I think you're correct on Segura (he's just the only one I would even consider right now), and I'm right there with you hoping others step it up. There are no Brauns or Fielders in our system, so hope is what we have to go on.

[brewcrewdue80]

Not a fan of this deal at all. It's his Arby years of which he's likely never going to see 9mil/12mil in the end of them anyhow. The Options are the only case where should Sale pitch say top 12Cy Young potential at that moment of time I can say they CHW are actually saving money vs paying him big/watching him go via FA.

Pitchers abuse their arms so frequently that 1 year away in these 5years would eradicate his Arby year value by quite a bit thus making this deal much worse. I'm a fan of these deals for Batters. With Pitchers, it's just far to risk involved vs just going Arb yearly. Shoulder/elbow issues take the pitcher out for 1year completely. Then there's the effect of restricting that Pitcher in his return in Innings like Washington had done with Zimmerman and then Strasburg. So 1 single injury effects 2years of value of contract.