Mike Fiers is on fire

[JohnBriggs12]

Wrigley Field shadows affected Cub hitters

 

Will be interesting how a strong finish to the season by Fiers affects Brewer plans this winter with both Lohse and Gallardo (assuming his 2015 option is exercised) entering their final contract years.

 

I'm guessing we could see a 6 man rotation in September when Garza returns.

[folly412]

I'm guessing we could see a 6 man rotation in September when Garza returns.

 

If we can get everyone back healthy by early September, I like having the option to push back once or twice without formally going with a "six man rotation", i.e. the Dodgers are ending a 20 day stretch without a day off; they started Correia on Monday and pushed everyone back a day to give the other starters an extra day off, but he's not in the rotation moving forward. We have a 17 day stretch between August 29 - September 14 without a day off where that could be beneficial.

[JohnBriggs12]

There's only two off days from August 29 to the end of the season. There isn't anyone in the rotation that wouldn't benefit from an extra day or two rest between starts at this point in the year. With extra arms available in the pen after Sept 1, a 6 man rotation makes sense. They've all logged a lot of innings this year. Of course that's assuming Garza even returns at some point.

[monty57]

Well, Lohse will probably get skipped on his next start to rest his ankle. The off day will keep everyone else on regular rest. Garza will certainly be "rested" when he returns. I don't know if Nelson has IP concerns. If so he could be a possibility to get skipped. Otherwise, even though everyone seems to be pitching well, I don't see the Brewers going to a 6-man rotation. Too non-traditional, and it would be blamed by the fans and media every time a pitcher had a bad outing.

 

Having a few "reserve" pitchers step in and pitch well is a good problem to have, so we'll just have to see how they handle it when/if they get everyone healthy at once.

[folly412]

I don't know if Nelson has IP concerns.

 

162 IP last year, 147 IP so far this year. Looks like about eight more starts could be in order, so a conservative 50 IP gets him to 197. Seems doable; though if the flexibility is there to keep the innings down a little it wouldn't hurt.

[bork]

At least we have time to get Garza and Lohse healthy. Between now and Sept 1st, we only need a 5th starter on the 26th.

[liveforoctober]

For arguments sake, if the playoffs started tomorrow and we have a healthy Garza... Does Fiers take his rotation spot? If not, how many more exceptional starts before we give Mike Fiers playoff starts? 2 more exceptional starts in a row? 4?

[bm1090]

For arguments sake, if the playoffs started tomorrow and we have a healthy Garza... Does Fiers take his rotation spot? If not, how many more exceptional starts before we give Mike Fiers playoff starts? 2 more exceptional starts in a row? 4?

 

No. Garza had a 2.88 ERA in June, 2.53 in July, and 6 scoreless innings to start August. He's been our best pitcher since May ended.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's not the innings so much as it's giving pitchers a boost 5 months into a long year. As hot as Fiers is, they need to ride his hot streak as long as possible. One big reason teams don't go with 6 man rotations is because it leaves them a man short in the pen and also because starters make more that relievers. But with the expanded rosters, there's enough arms available in the bullpen.

 

Of course all this is moot if Garza is out longer or Lohse needs more recovery time.

[liveforoctober]

For arguments sake, if the playoffs started tomorrow and we have a healthy Garza... Does Fiers take his rotation spot? If not, how many more exceptional starts before we give Mike Fiers playoff starts? 2 more exceptional starts in a row? 4?

 

No. Garza had a 2.88 ERA in June, 2.53 in July, and 6 scoreless innings to start August. He's been our best pitcher since May ended.

 

Dang, I wish I had started my original post with "For argument's sake". Lohse then.

[bm1090]

For arguments sake, if the playoffs started tomorrow and we have a healthy Garza... Does Fiers take his rotation spot? If not, how many more exceptional starts before we give Mike Fiers playoff starts? 2 more exceptional starts in a row? 4?

 

No. Garza had a 2.88 ERA in June, 2.53 in July, and 6 scoreless innings to start August. He's been our best pitcher since May ended.

 

Dang, I wish I had started my original post with "For argument's sake". Lohse then.

 

I understand that. Wasn't trying to be rude, just don't think there is much of an argument. I would be comfortable with Fiers in a playoff start...I just don't know who of our top four he could legitimately replace.

[TheCrew07]

I think he's fine bullpen option and spot starter down the road. He's almost entirely reliant on his command so when he's on he's very good and when he's not his FB gets hit around.

 

It was a sensational outing yesterday, historic even, but that doesn't change who/what Fiers is. He's a 29 year old pitcher with solid average stuff, his best feature has always been his plus, maybe plus plus command.

 

Every Brewer pitcher has absolutely torched the Cubs AAA team in Iowa strike out wise, I've commented on it numerous times in the Link Reports on the minor league forum over the course of the year. The Cubs will have a potent offense but they'll also be strike out prone like our recent Brewer teams. The recently promoted Baez and Alcantara accounted for 5 of those strike outs, that's just who the Cubs are going to be as a team moving forward. The Iowa Cubs are far and away the PCL leader in SOs with 1128, our Nashville team is 4th from the bottom with 908, Baez himself had 130 strike outs before his promotion.

 

Rizzo and Castro have always struck out a fair amount, add Baez and Alcantara with high strike out rates, and then Bryant/Soler for 2015/2016 who will also be 100+ for a full MLB season when they arrive. That Cubs' offense will be exciting yet probably frustrating for the fans in the same way we are upset with Ks in run producing situations with the Brewers.

 

I'm not trying to diminish what Fiers did, but I do think it was kind of a perfect storm... a strike out prone line-up facing a control pitcher who was at his absolute best.

[SRB]

I think he's fine bullpen option and spot starter down the road. He's almost entirely reliant on his command so when he's on he's very good and when he's not his FB gets hit around.

 

It was a sensational outing yesterday, historic even, but that doesn't change who/what Fiers is. He's a 29 year old pitcher with solid average stuff, his best feature has always been his plus, maybe plus plus command.

 

Every Brewer pitcher has absolutely torched the Cubs AAA team in Iowa strike out wise, I've commented on it numerous times in the Link Reports on the minor league forum over the course of the year. The Cubs will have a potent offense but they'll also be strike out prone like our recent Brewer teams. The recently promoted Baez and Alcantara accounted for 5 of those strike outs, that's just who the Cubs are going to be as a team moving forward. The Iowa Cubs are far and away the PCL leader in SOs with 1128, our Nashville team is 4th from the bottom with 908, Baez himself had 130 strike outs before his promotion.

 

Rizzo and Castro have always struck out a fair amount, add Baez and Alcantara with high strike out rates, and then Bryant/Soler for 2015/2016 who will also be 100+ for a full MLB season when they arrive. That Cubs' offense will be exciting yet probably frustrating for the fans in the same way we are upset with Ks in run producing situations with the Brewers.

 

I'm not trying to diminish what Fiers did, but I do think it was kind of a perfect storm... a strike out prone line-up facing a control pitcher who was at his absolute best.

 

Is that why Fiers has a 9.2 K/9 in 173.0 IP for his major league career, and a 10.0 K/9 in 483.2 IP in the minors?

 

Not sure what more Fiers needs to do for people to stop second guessing him simply because he was a low draft pick.

[liveforoctober]

Why won't people play my game?!?

 

You are telling me if Fiers has 7 more starts on the season and throws 52 innings with 67 k's, 6 bb's, with a .84 era and goes 7-0 ... He wouldn't be in our playoff rotation? Where is the line? That is all I'm asking... I'm not saying he is better than anyone - simply asking, based off this ridiculous start, how much more convincing will be needed before he becomes one of our guys?

[guylanderfridancies]

Not sure what more Fiers needs to do for people to stop second guessing him simply because he was a low draft pick.

 

 

Well the way i thought it usually works is you have to end up dominating on another team. then the team that drafted you realizes they under-rated you and then and only then, do they stop second-guessing you.

[nate82]

I think he's fine bullpen option and spot starter down the road. He's almost entirely reliant on his command so when he's on he's very good and when he's not his FB gets hit around.

 

It was a sensational outing yesterday, historic even, but that doesn't change who/what Fiers is. He's a 29 year old pitcher with solid average stuff, his best feature has always been his plus, maybe plus plus command.

 

 

Is that why Fiers has a 9.2 K/9 in 173.0 IP for his major league career, and a 10.0 K/9 in 483.2 IP in the minors?

 

Not sure what more Fiers needs to do for people to stop second guessing him simply because he was a low draft pick.

 

Yes those are nice but when Fiers is off with his command he gives up home runs like Estrada does.

 

I am not sure what him being a low draft pick means to what has been said about Fiers. Look he is what he is. He is not an ace or even a #3 type pitcher he just does not have the stuff to be that guy when he is not locating his pitches.

 

For Fiers to be successful he has to locate his pitches very effectively just like Estrada has to locate his pitches. The best comparison to Fiers is actually not Estrada but more along the lines of Dave Bush or Shaun Marcum. Both Marcum and Bush are very similar to Fiers in how he has to pitch in order to be successful.

 

When Fiers is off on his command it is very ugly which is evident in his 2013 numbers though they were limited to 22.1 innings pitched he did give up 8 home runs in those 22.1 innings pitched. It is not doubting Fiers but more along the lines of knowing what type of a player he actually is.

[SRB]

I think he's fine bullpen option and spot starter down the road. He's almost entirely reliant on his command so when he's on he's very good and when he's not his FB gets hit around.

 

It was a sensational outing yesterday, historic even, but that doesn't change who/what Fiers is. He's a 29 year old pitcher with solid average stuff, his best feature has always been his plus, maybe plus plus command.

 

 

Is that why Fiers has a 9.2 K/9 in 173.0 IP for his major league career, and a 10.0 K/9 in 483.2 IP in the minors?

 

Not sure what more Fiers needs to do for people to stop second guessing him simply because he was a low draft pick.

 

Yes those are nice but when Fiers is off with his command he gives up home runs like Estrada does.

 

I am not sure what him being a low draft pick means to what has been said about Fiers. Look he is what he is. He is not an ace or even a #3 type pitcher he just does not have the stuff to be that guy when he is not locating his pitches.

 

For Fiers to be successful he has to locate his pitches very effectively just like Estrada has to locate his pitches. The best comparison to Fiers is actually not Estrada but more along the lines of Dave Bush or Shaun Marcum. Both Marcum and Bush are very similar to Fiers in how he has to pitch in order to be successful.

 

When Fiers is off on his command it is very ugly which is evident in his 2013 numbers though they were limited to 22.1 innings pitched he did give up 8 home runs in those 22.1 innings pitched. It is not doubting Fiers but more along the lines of knowing what type of a player he actually is.

 

I never said Fiers is an ace, but TheCrew07's suggestion that he only strikes people out when he's facing a strikeout-happy lineup makes no sense given the fact that at no point in his career has he struck out less than a batter an inning.

 

If he had the exact same stuff but was a third round pick I don't think we'd be having this debate right now. I'd like to see another pitcher who has had 650 IP of being absolutely dominant at every level, yet who is repeatedly maligned due to three bad starts he had in 2013 (when he may or may not have been injured).

[LouisEly]

Dave Bush career major league K/9: 6.0

Dave Bush career minor league K/9: 7.3

Shawn Marcum career major league K/9: 7.3

Shawn Marcum career minor league K/9: 8.9

 

Marcum is somewhat comparable, but Bush is a laughable comparison.

 

Yes those are nice but when Fiers is off with his command he gives up home runs like Estrada does.

 

In 2012, among 79 NL pitchers with at least 100 IP, Fiers HR/9 that year of 0.8 was tied for 19th best. And was second in K/9 to Strasburg.

[gregmag]

The notion, floated above, that a player's performance "doesn't change what he is" boggles my mind. It's the scouting version of statistical blinders. Performance tells us what a player is. If Mike Fiers does something, he does it for a reason or reasons, and those reasons tell us more than we knew before about his ability.

 

This is a strange player, and traditionalists often want to fit strange players into familiar boxes. I want to see what he can do, and I'm pretty sure at this point the organization is on board with that.

[SoupTown]

Can we just change Mike's name to Rodney Dangerfield?

[DoubleSwitch]

I think this is what they call one of them 'good problems.'

 

Let Garza and Lohse heal up without feeling like they need to rush back and then we can assess where we're at in a couple weeks. As a long time Fiers fanboy who never gave up hope, I'm just glad to see him up and showing everyone what he's capable of again. There's no such thing as having too much good starting pitching, everyone will find a place when the time comes.

[Funketown]

Mike Fiers' career numbers:

 

180 IP, 3.75 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 3.51 xFIP, 9.10 K/9, 2.55 BB/9, 1.10 HR/9, 33.9% GB%.

 

The fact of the matter is that anybody who only gets ~1/3 of balls in play on the ground is going to get knocked out of the park fairly often. But given his career line, I don't see any reason that he shouldn't be given a chance in some rotation somewhere; he'll likely never be more than a #3 starter, but I can't imagine there isn't some team out there who wouldn't be happy to slot him into the back end of the rotation. For now, it's great to be able to grab him from the minors to fill-in for injured starters, and if he continues to pitch the way he has for the next 6-7 starts, perhaps that makes the team more comfortable about dealing Lohse if the price is right.

[Dead Simmons]

I watched every inning of your game last night (until it became a laugher) to get a look at Fiers.... that guy's a big league pitcher.

[3and2Fastball]

Fiers was super nice to my kid yesterday in autographing a Baseball for him and talking with us for awhile. He's got fans in our family for life

[LouisEly]

This from another thread:

 

What I would do is first trade Fiers maybe there is a GM out there dumb enough to think he is a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher. Fiers is more along a 4.00-4.50 ERA pitcher but lets see first if a GM out there will be dumb enough to part with a decent prospect for a #5 type pitcher.

 

I'm really fascinated by people's opinions of Fiers and that they see him as a 5th starter.

 

"But he doesn't throw 95"

- There have been plenty of pitchers who throw low 90's (Fiers tops at 92 - I've watched ~90% of his pitches this season and saw him hit 92 plenty of times) who have been good for a long time. They exist. No, not all of them will be Maddux or Glavine, but they will come around and be quality #3 starters, maybe #2. I've watched Hellickson pitch 3 times and never saw him top 92. Kyle Lohse anyone?

 

"But look at Estrada - the same thing will happen to Fiers"

- Big difference between Fiers and Estrada. 1) Fiers has four pitches, Estrada only has three. Fiers has a cut fastball that Estrada doesn't throw. B) With the possible exception of his change, all of his pitches are better than Estrada's. His fastball is faster (92 vs 90), his curve is better, and as mentioned before Estrada doesn't have a cutter.

 

"But when he is off he will give up home runs"

- But he is rarely off. This year he has walked 32 in 163 innings between AAA and the majors. His HR rate this year (small sample, granted) is 0.6; his career HR rate - 212 innings pitching in a HR-friendly home park - is 1.0. Only 23 pitchers in all of baseball - less than one per team - have thrown as many innings as Fiers this year and have given up fewer HRs.

 

"But he collapsed the last two months of 2012 when hitters figured him out"

- He threw 50 more innings than either of the previous two seasons. And he only collapsed in September; one bad start in August at Colorado skewed his August numbers; his last two starts in August were quality starts and his last start gave up 1 ER in 7.1 innings. Take out the Colorado start and in his other five starts in August he had a 3.00 ERA.

 

"But he got shelled in 2013"

- Yes, in a total of three starts - small sample - when he was being bounced back and forth between starting and the bullpen and the majors and AAA. One start on 4/6, then to the bullpen, then to the minors on 4/16, then back on 5/12 to the bullpen, then 2nd start on 5/25, then another relief appearance and then his last start on 6/2. His mother was also gravely ill at the time and passed away later that season; kind of hard to focus with that going on.

 

The more he pitches, the more September 2012 and his 2013 season look like the outlier.