Aoki's Rights -- Finally an Answer?

[Mass Haas]

I know we had debated this for some time, and a poster here, "torts" had argued otherwise, but apparently Adam McCalvy has verified:

 

Aoki, who is represented by the same agency as Braun, CAA Sports, will earn $1.25 million this season in the second guaranteed season of his two-year deal. The Brewers hold a $1.5 million option for 2014 with a $250,000 buyout, but will own Aoki's rights for his first six years of Major League service, just like any other player. Assuming he plays this season and next in the Majors, Aoki would be arbitration eligible starting in the 2014-15 offseason.

 

Awesome news.

[monty57]

Well, that's really good news. I thought we only had him through 2014 (with the option).

[Thurston Fluff]

If I'm not mistaken arbitration players cannot have their salaries reduced over a certain percentage. If he got injured or, given his age, started to decline arbitration won't help us. He could cost more money than he's worth simply by the rules of the system. But it is good to know we have the choice.

[MVP2110]

That is great news in that I don't see his skills diminishing for a few years so we could potentially have our Right Fielder Lead off hitter for awhile

[monty57]

If I'm not mistaken arbitration players cannot have their salaries reduced over a certain percentage. If he got injured or, given his age, started to decline arbitration won't help us. He could cost more money than he's worth simply by the rules of the system. But it is good to know we have the choice.

 

While that's true, it's really true of any player in the arby/pre-arby process. For example, Fiers will be something like 31 when he hits arbitration, and there's no guarantee that he'll be worth a couple million at that time. Will we be willing to pay over a million a year to Green if he hasn't been more than a utility guy?

 

Injuries could hit anyone, but simply due to age regression, Aoki will be coming off a $1.5MM season, so 80% of that would be $1.2MM on a one-year deal with no future guarantee. Not chump change, but not more than a normal veteran backup would get. I'd guess that if international FAs are treated like all other arby guys that he would get around $2-3MM in year 1 arby, so even if we don't want to get into the "expensive" arby years, we could easily get an extra year or two. Plus, this adds a lot of trade value if someone like Roche lives up to his potential.

 

Does anyone know how arby has worked for international FAs in the past? It would be interesting to see how big a jump they normally get, as they're not your ordinary "year 4" players.

[PrinceEatMeat]

This is fantastic news. Aoki could end up being valuable for the entire 6 years. He's 31 now, and would be 35 in the 6th year. If you look at Ichiro as an example of when Japanese players may start to drop off, he didn't drop off at all until the season he was 37. Aoki could still be playing at the top of his game at 35. I think we got a huge steal in Aoki. Although that's already obvious after only one year based on what we're paying him.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think you can say players from country X are all the same. I hope Aoki has similar longevity, but Ichiro had a lot further to fall, talent-wise, than Aoki does (& I don't mean to say Aoki's not a good player).

[torts]

thats surprising, im glad I was wrong

[torts]

glad this was clarified though, contract control must have been arbitrated because there's nothing showing previous to this article about Aoki being under MKE control until 2017.

[Bombers]

glad this was clarified though, contract control must have been arbitrated because there's nothing showing previous to this article about Aoki being under MKE control until 2017.

Ya this is the first I have heard of it but it's great news

[pogokat]

Yeah, Thats huge...With Gomez a lock to be gone at the end of the year, it's nice to know we won't need to replace two outfielders...Aoki suddenly carries tremendous value

[mothershipconnection]

I don't think you can say players from country X are all the same. I hope Aoki has similar longevity, but Ichiro had a lot further to fall, talent-wise, than Aoki does (& I don't mean to say Aoki's not a good player).

 

While being from a certain country guarantees nothing, Japanese players do have a decent track record of longevity. Some of these guys did fall apart at the end, but there have been quite a few Japanese geezers in the majors.

 

Ichiro is 39

Kuroda is 38

Uehara is 38

Saito was 42 (and continues to play in Japan)

Nomo was 40

Matsui was 38

Hasegawa was 37

Okajima is 37

Tateyama is 37

Ishii is still playing in Japan at 40

Taguchi was 40 (and continued to play in Japan)

Sasaki was 35 (and continued to play in Japan)

Fukudome was 35

[pogokat]

It seems the biggest issue with the Japanese players has been whether they will succeed to start with...aoki has already proven he can hang here...i think he'll be productive with his skill set for another 5 years

[RobDeer 45]

Wow that's awesome! Even if he just becomes a backup at some point, I like having him on our squad!

[Invader3K]

It's good the mystery of this situation has been dispelled. Thanks for posting that article.

[JohnBriggs12]

Even if his skills declined before the next 6 years are over, teams aren't forced to offer arby. Even if he does get expensive in arby it's only a one year commitment.

 

My prediction? Aoki is going to win a batting title at some point.