Wily Peralta

[MVP2110]

Is it me or is he the most important player to the team this year. IMO he is the only one with a legit shot at stepping in and being a legit #2 starter behind Yo. & if he does we could easily have a playoff time but if he doesn't it could be a rough year

[PrinceFielderx1]

What "some" fans don't understand and some sports analysts as well, is that the Brewers just need a average to a little bit above average pitching staff in 2013 to be in serious playoff contention, because they are going to have one of the top if not the top offense in the NL and MLB. Peralta doesn't necessarily need to be a number 2 or ace for that to happen.

[Raw Biz]

What "some" fans don't understand and some sports analysts as well, is that the Brewers just need a average to a little bit above average pitching staff in 2013 to be in serious playoff contention, because they are going to have one of the top if not the top offense in the NL and MLB. Peralta doesn't necessarily need to be a number 2 or ace for that to happen.

 

That isn't necessarily true. Look at the Brewers offenses when they had Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, etc. They were always near the top in offense but when they had average pitching, they didn't do much. The only times they made the playoffs was with great pitching (CC/Sheets, Greinke/Marcum/Yo). Great pitching will usually beat great hitting. You can't expect to win 7-6 every game. The focus should be on improving the pitching, even if that means the offense takes a little bit of a hit.

[PrinceFielderx1]

What "some" fans don't understand and some sports analysts as well, is that the Brewers just need a average to a little bit above average pitching staff in 2013 to be in serious playoff contention, because they are going to have one of the top if not the top offense in the NL and MLB. Peralta doesn't necessarily need to be a number 2 or ace for that to happen.

 

That isn't necessarily true. Look at the Brewers offenses when they had Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Hardy, etc. They were always near the top in offense but when they had average pitching, they didn't do much. The only times they made the playoffs was with great pitching (CC/Sheets, Greinke/Marcum/Yo). Great pitching will usually beat great hitting. You can't expect to win 7-6 every game. The focus should be on improving the pitching, even if that means the offense takes a little bit of a hit.

 

When has the Brewers ever made the playoffs with "great" pitching? Maybe 1 time? Sheets/Sabathia is 2 pitchers out of 5, and Sabathia was acquired at mid-season. 5 is a starting pitching staff. Also, when I say pitching I mean bullpen included, which includes the entire pitching staff.

 

With an average Starting pitching staff and a stable bullpen the Brewers in my opinion are a lock for the playoffs in 2013.

[Raw Biz]

When has the Brewers ever made the playoffs with "great" pitching? Maybe 1 time? Sheets/Sabathia is 2 pitchers out of 5, and Sabathia was acquired at mid-season. 5 is a starting pitching staff. Also, when I say pitching I mean bullpen included, which includes the entire pitching staff.

 

With an average Starting pitching staff and a stable bullpen the Brewers in my opinion are a lock for the playoffs in 2013.

 

The Brewers were 2nd in the NL in 2008 with an ERA of 3.85. And that's the entire season. 4th with giving up 4.25 runs/game. 4th with a 1.335 WHIP. In 2011, they were actually only 7th but a 3.63 ERA and 6th in runs/game at 3.94 and 3rd in WHIP at 1.24. So yes, the 2 times that the Brewers have made the playoffs since 1982 has been with great pitching. The 2011 staff was better on the season compared to 2008 but so was the rest of the NL. And we don't make the playoffs in 2008 without CC pitching on 3 days rest. More often than not, you need good to great pitching just to make the playoffs.

[PrinceFielderx1]

When has the Brewers ever made the playoffs with "great" pitching? Maybe 1 time? Sheets/Sabathia is 2 pitchers out of 5, and Sabathia was acquired at mid-season. 5 is a starting pitching staff. Also, when I say pitching I mean bullpen included, which includes the entire pitching staff.

 

With an average Starting pitching staff and a stable bullpen the Brewers in my opinion are a lock for the playoffs in 2013.

 

The Brewers were 2nd in the NL in 2008 with an ERA of 3.85. And that's the entire season. 4th with giving up 4.25 runs/game. 4th with a 1.335 WHIP. In 2011, they were actually only 7th but a 3.63 ERA and 6th in runs/game at 3.94 and 3rd in WHIP at 1.24. So yes, the 2 times that the Brewers have made the playoffs since 1982 has been with great pitching. The 2011 staff was better on the season compared to 2008 but so was the rest of the NL. And we don't make the playoffs in 2008 without CC pitching on 3 days rest. More often than not, you need good to great pitching just to make the playoffs.

 

You can make that case for the 2011 Brewers and that's about it, because their rotation and bullpen were both good, but they didn't barely make the playoffs they clearly won the division and won 96 games to boot. In 2008, they had a rocky bullpen and that blew a ton of saves, which included players like Gagne, Turnbow, Riske, Taveras, Dillard etc.. There bullpen was a mess for a wile that season. They got lucky that Torres, Villanueva, Mota, Shouse stepped up big.

 

I stand by my statement that should the Brewers have an average to above average rotation, and a stable "bullpen" to go along with that top offense that they will make the playoffs. They will win at least 90 games.

[Ennder]

I'm not on board with the legit #2 but I expect Fiers and Estrada to be viable ML starters, Gallardo is obviously at least a soft ace. Rogers or Narveson should be an acceptable #5 so Peralta really is the guy who things depend on. If we happen to sigh a Lohse or trade for a Capuano he isn't nearly as important as others imo.

[Dollarbill13]

Estrada had a 3.64 ERA last year with a better FIP. I think that would qualify as a #2, no?

[MVP2110]

Estrada had a 3.64 ERA last year with a better FIP. I think that would qualify as a #2, no?

 

Does anyone honestly think hell replicate those numbers though? I feel it is much more likely he regresses to a 3 or 4 along with Fiers. Right now i feel we have our ace with Gallardo, Fiers & Estrada both as 3 or 4's. Narveson a 5 and Rogers and Peralta anywhere from a 2 to a 5. I think our whole season depends on one of those two stepping up and pitching like it or both

[faede]

If Estrada threw 95, you'd be willing to buy a successful number-similar season, I bet. Right?

[TURBO]

but he doesn't throw 95, so what exactly is your point?

 

I'm a Gallardo fan, but I'm not fully convinced he is an ACE in the true sense of the word.

 

He is our ACE, that is for sure.

 

I am counting on Peralta as our #2, and if things work out, he could be our real ACE of the future. I also believe that if Rogers stays healthy, he slots in as our #3. I am not sold on Fiers, but as a #5, I think we are just fine. That leaves our #4 slot to Estrada, knowing full well he starts the season as our #2.

 

I am not behind Narveson starting the season in the rotation, not even a little. He isn't going to push us to being a playoff contender, so why not start him in the bullpen, and if one of Fiers, Rogers, Peralta or Estrada tanks, give him a shot.

[BallFour]

If Marco Estrada's name was Shaun Marcum everyone's perception of him would change he doesn't need to hit 95 to be effective with that changeup. My point being no one gives the guy a chance because we didn't expect him to have the numbers he had last year as a starter. I understand a long time minor leaguer and long man wouldn't reflect long-term confidence. The sample size isn't large but its not minuscule either. If he didn't miss a lot of bats I would definitely say it was a fluke year but I feel the guy can at least replicate a sub 4.00 year call me crazy.

[faede]

My point is... That is a bias that skews thinking. The facts are there and people ignore this data because Estrada doesn't fit into the stereotype they have concocted for a top of the rotation starter.

 

The facts are in the last two years Marco Estrada strikes out a batter per inning despite throwing high 80's/low 90's, doesn't walk ,any batters and is trending toward (and maintained last year) a sub 4 era.

 

His stats have been on a good solid increase over the last two years as well, and we are over 220 innings so sample size is starting to become irrelevant. He's a control pitcher with a hella good change up.

 

I think I'd be more surprised from the data that exists on him if he didn't have similar numbers to 2011 and 2012 then the alternative hypothesis.

 

In short, don't let the "throw hard" stereotype get in the way of real data.

[logan82]

200 innings is still a small sample.

[yoyo49]

From 2006-2012, the Brewers failed to reach .500 three times. In those three years, they ranked 25th, 27th, and 26th in the MLB in ERA. ERA isn't a tell-all pitching stat, but a decent indicator of the quality of your pitching staff. With last year's position players all returning from a team that was in playoff contention until the last week of the season and a 2012 pitching staff that ranked 22nd in ERA, an MLB average ERA this year should put them in the thick of the playoff race.

[RockCoCougars]

It all hinges on the pitching. Look at the Brewers offensive stats from the mid/late 90's until Dean Taylor came to town. You may be surprised. Basically, two guys not names Gallardo need to step it up in a big way - and for the entire season, not just for half a la Manny Parra, Santos, etc.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don' think our season hinges on any single starter turning into a true #2 as much as it does finding four be at least average. Going into future years I think we need a couple of them to become top of the rotation types. I just don't think it's necessary they pitch that way this season for us to be in contention.

[endaround]

There is no proof that Peralta is ready to contribute (no a handful of September starts against expanded rosters and teams playing out the string does not mean he is ready, and he was pretty terrible in 2 of the 5 starts). He is being rushed and really should be in AAA for another half season. But if the other option is Narveson he might be the best option. Which is why the Brewers should have pushed to sign Sanchez instead of giving a huge dividend to ownership.

[umphrey]

Peralta doesn't need any more time in the minors, his time is now

[brewcrewdue80]

It will be Gallardo,Estrada that I'm comfortable with. After that, hopefully 2 of Fiers,Peralta,Rogers,Thornburg,Narveson at least turn out Quality Starts. The 5th guy just hopefully eats up innings. It's one of the reasons I wanted Karstens since you could get 7ip in 85-90pitches. I don't care if he's 2er or 5er. The important thing is not taxing the Bullpen every week.

 

I do think this going with the young staff leads in to the amount of RP signing in the minors done by the club over this offseason. Somebody will be sent down often who has options while a mix of guys are called up for relief.

[Thurston Fluff]

I do think this going with the young staff leads in to the amount of RP signing in the minors done by the club over this offseason. Somebody will be sent down often who has options while a mix of guys are called up for relief.

That is not a bad observation. But how does it help if you still need five starters? You can't send down a guy even if he has options if you need him every fifth day.

[Roderick]

I do think this going with the young staff leads in to the amount of RP signing in the minors done by the club over this offseason. Somebody will be sent down often who has options while a mix of guys are called up for relief.

That is not a bad observation. But how does it help if you still need five starters? You can't send down a guy even if he has options if you need him every fifth day.

 

You have to figure that these guys are locks for the pen, right? - Henderson, Gonzalez, Gorzelany, Badenhop, Axford. Then you have one of Narveson/Rogers (assuming Peralta and Fiers get the other two spots), and then an open spot for someone like Kintzler or Olmstead.

 

So the best I can see is having one position that you can shuttle players back and forth with Nashville if we get tired. If Kintzler makes it does he even have options still? Does someone have a link to a page that shows if a player has minor league options?

 

I guess if you see an day off in the schedule, you could send down a starter that has options and bring up a reliever if you are really hurting that much in the pen - but I would just assume that standard operating procedure would be to give an additional day of rest to the whole starting staff.

[RobDeer 45]

Ya I believe that it's now or never for Peralta. I do kind of agree there is a lot riding on him, but I'd say there is a lot riding on all the young guys. We need one of them to step up to be a #2 or #3 at least. I think Estrada is good, but I just don't know how good. My friend and I discussed him and he's very high on him. Can you verify this, what is Yo's avg fb range compared to Estrada's? I'm not talking high end, because I know Yo can crank it up and hit higher when needed, but I'm just talking about the average fastballs they throw. My buddy said they are very similar but Estrada just didn't have the high end ability.

[Ennder]

Gallardo throws low 90s(91-92), Peralta mid 90's(95ish), estrada low 90's but more like 90-91.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

I've been at games and seen Estrada hit 96 on the gun.