Baseball America Top 100

[trwi7]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2013/02/2013-top-100-prospects-list/

 

As expected Peralta is the only Brewer at 69.

 

Cardinals lead the NL Central with 6 in the top 100 at 3, 6, 38, 39, 76 and 84 and that makes me sad.

 

Pirates are next with 5 at 7, 19, 51, 61 and 78

 

Cubs are next with 4 at 16, 33, 34 and 83

 

Reds have 3 at 20, 82 and 94

[TheCrew07]

Cingrani is about 40 spots too low, I don't like going to the reliever card until a pitcher proves he isn't a starter at the MLB level. I understand that his walk rate doubled with the move to AA but it wasn't excessive and he posted a similar MLB walk rate last year. I still think there's room for improvement with him.

 

I think Corcino was treated similarly and I see him with #2 upside as opposed to BA's #3, but maybe I just like Cincy's system more than I should.

 

As for the Cards, it sure wouldn't suck to have Taveras, Martinez, and Rosenthal. I'm not super high on Wong, in fact I'd rather take Gennett over him at this point, but regardless, the Cards have a nice system.

 

I found it somewhat interesting that Polanco from Pitt found himself on the outside of the top 50 by 1 spot, I figured he was lock for the low 40s.

 

I was also surprised that Almora from the Cubs was as high as he was, but it's hard to argue with the success he's had out of the gate. Though I will say I think our own Taylor was more impressive prior to his injury, though he doesn't have the same upside as Almora does.

 

It's depressing to have an aging MLB roster and the worst farm system in our division by any measure.

[paul253]

I'm surprised Tyler Thornburg isn't listed. What does the guy have to do to get some recognition, other than maybe having scouts NOT call him a future reliever or not be a Milwaukee Brewer? He has a career minor league ERA of 2.77 with 311 Ks in 272.2 innings and is still only 24. I don't know how he isn't a top 100 prospect.

 

Also, I'm assuming Jean Segura is no longer eligible?

[TooLiveBrew]

It's depressing to have an aging MLB roster and the worst farm system in our division by any measure.

Combine that with the insanity that is new TV money, and the Brewers are quite possibly headed for a loooonnng spell of being awful. The more I analyze this, the more I think Melvin's leadership has run this organization into the ground. It won't show in '13, or maybe even '14. But after that, unless the next two drafts are all-time great drafts, this org. is in deep doodoo.

[homer]

It's depressing to have an aging MLB roster and the worst farm system in our division by any measure.

Combine that with the insanity that is new TV money, and the Brewers are quite possibly headed for a loooonnng spell of being awful. The more I analyze this, the more I think Melvin's leadership has run this organization into the ground. It won't show in '13, or maybe even '14. But after that, unless the next two drafts are all-time great drafts, this org. is in deep doodoo.

 

Not that it's apples to apples given the different financial climates, but the big difference between Ted Thompson and Doug Melvin is Thompson's ability/willingness to drop a guy while he's still technically valuable. Melvin seems to hang on thinking "If I can get one more year out of Randy Wolf...".

[TooLiveBrew]

It's depressing to have an aging MLB roster and the worst farm system in our division by any measure.

Combine that with the insanity that is new TV money, and the Brewers are quite possibly headed for a loooonnng spell of being awful. The more I analyze this, the more I think Melvin's leadership has run this organization into the ground. It won't show in '13, or maybe even '14. But after that, unless the next two drafts are all-time great drafts, this org. is in deep doodoo.

 

Not that it's apples to apples given the different financial climates, but the big difference between Ted Thompson and Doug Melvin is Thompson's ability/willingness to drop a guy while he's still technically valuable. Melvin seems to hang on thinking "If I can get one more year out of Randy Wolf...".

Oh, absolutely. Melvin hangs on in the same way that you wring that sponge or washcloth one last time, just since there might still be a drop you can squeeze out. It's maddening.

[DHonks]

what's weird though is that we keep getting lots out of the guys you are discussing. It's not like our team is full of wasted players. We have top 5 talent in LF, 3b, 2b, C, and arguably CF and 1b (with Hart healthy). I don't care a player's age if they perform.

[TheCrew07]

what's weird though is that we keep getting lots out of the guys you are discussing. It's not like our team is full of wasted players. We have top 5 talent in LF, 3b, 2b, C, and arguably CF and 1b (with Hart healthy). I don't care a player's age if they perform.

 

We have aging and expensive talent at those positions, and what they did last year has nothing to do with what they do this year or into the future. That's the problem, if they go down what do we have to replace them with?

 

Where's another player with Braun's power potential anywhere in the system?

 

Can we really count on Ramirez to stay healthy and put up another career year each of the next 2 seasons? Who replaces him when he gets hurt or moves on?

 

Weeks has never been able to stay healthy and Gennett doesn't have near the physical tools that Rickie possesses.

 

Hart is replaceable at 1B as is Gomez in CF, and furthermore 1 good year doesn't make Gomez a top 5 talent.

 

Where's another pitcher like Gallardo that we "know" is going to be a stud?

 

You may not care about age, but I think you're way off track, because age eventually catches up with everyone. Some guys aren't able to stay healthy, some have their production decline rapidly, some have both problems, but age affects every player in one way or another, and it's extremely difficult to predict how and/or when, so it's just easier to move on. Let other teams overpay players for who they used to be...

[TooLiveBrew]

DHonks -- I was actually thinking about a guy like McGehee, and homer specifically mentioned Wolf. Why did you assume we were talking about guys like Braun, Weeks, & Lucroy?

[DHonks]

Because those guys were always filler. Right now the Brewers system looks great at producing future filler. Our minor league depth is very good with this type of player. We are not very good right now with producing studs. Beginning this year--for the first time in my lifetime--we have enough quality minor league "filler" depth that we can have Green, Schafer, Gindl, Maldonado, and Bianchi all as backups. When backups are making the league minimum, it allows us to focus our resources on the marquee players. We are in a nice spot because we no longer are having to pay for 5 backups all making $1-3 million.

 

Wolf had one great season here, one solid, and one terrible. I consider his signing to be an overwhelming success given how free agency generally doesn't work out for teams. I also look at players' past performance to determine future performance because players are--barring injury--likely to remain fairly constant. That is, their declines are rarely dramatic. Gallardo is a top 20 pitcher in baseball. We have no minor leaguers like him, but few teams do. I am really intrigued by what our rotation can do. I also like our minor league depth at present. The ultimate goal is to become like the Rays with pitching where you can trade your starters--whether a 1 or a 4--and get serviceable talent back because teams are overpaying. They always seem to be 5-10 pitchers deep. There's a chance that this could be the beginning of that for us.

 

I really like the idea of having a few core players that are your expensive players with the rest being fairly inexpensive. Hart is likely signable in part because he's indicated a willingness to sign for under-market salaries. Weeks is signed for the near-term and he's such a great bat that it's worth sticking with him. Ramirez will likely finish out his contract at least fairly well. The biggest player to sell high on is Carlos Gomez.

[TooLiveBrew]

When backups are making the league minimum, it allows us to focus our resources on the marquee players. We are in a nice spot because we no longer are having to pay for 5 backups all making $1-3 million.

 

Simply having backups that are temporarily cheap doesn't mean the Brewers are going to be able to compete on the FA market. There's no way the organization can sustain signing older players at $100M+ price tags, or rolling the dice on even older FAs like Ramírez. The only other alternative would be trading for elite talents, and the most Melvin has been able to get out of that kind of trade is 2 seasons because he's refused to target younger elite talents. I think you're severely underestimating how much it is going to cost to sign actual star players on the open market. There really isn't another wave of marquee talent right now in the pipeline within our own system for which to start planning lucrative extensions.

 

We obviously disagree on Hart & the value he'd provide v. the risk of how much it'll cost to sign him... and that back-&-forth has been done so many times I don't think either one of us really wants to do it again.

 

Also, McGehee was not always filler. Melvin approached him with a multi-year extension offer that thankfully Casey turned down. Melvin wanted to plan, long-term, with him as a central piece... even when it didn't take an expert to recognize that McGehee was quite likely a flash in the pan.

[TheCrew07]

Sorry Doug but I don't see how a couple of million dollars saved on backups makes us more competitive. You're talking about the lowest paid players on the team regardless.

 

If we want to talk about savings, not paying Wolf $8 mil to stink while paying Fiers $500K would have been significant cost savings that could have been used to improve the team elsewhere.

 

Again I don't see the logic in resigning Hart when we literally have as many as 3 viable in house candidates for that spot. The idea shouldn't be to sign a guy to a 3 year deal, get 2 good years, then call the 3rd year a wash. Dead is money is simply that... misspent, and there's no excusing it away. If you're the Brewers trying to compete the Dodgers then there's no room for dead money anywhere on the payroll, not in deferred salary or otherwise. Every dollar spent needs to have a meaningful return paying towards in the current season.

 

I think you adequately described the trap of FA and aging players, people will look at what a player did last year, assume good health, and expect a similar result, and it almost never happens that way. How many big time FA contracts turn out well? How many FA contracts have turned out well for the Brewers under Melvin? There's this myth that proven MLB players carry less risk than prospects and I've vehemently argued against that point. In truth it comes down to how people weigh risk... most people who favor veterans are looking purely at potential production and ignoring other factors like health, longevity, and cost. I think that when cost is taken into consideration veteran FAs are actually much more risky than unproven player, you're only 1 injury away from eating an entire contract like we did with Riske. In a money driven system doesn't cost relative to production have to be the primary risk factor weighed? What could possibly be more important than the production cost associated with any player? That's the angle that I'm coming from.

 

For a long time we were upside down with our worst players making the most money but since that situation has reversed itself we face different yet somewhat similar problem in that now we're old and expensive, we've become top heavy again. I too like the idea of keeping a core, but Corey Hart isn't a core player, he's an above average replaceable piece.... Braun is a core player, Gallardo is a core player, Lucroy can a be a core player... Core players are signed to below market value contracts are still approaching or in their peak. Hart wouldn't sign an extension to buy out FA years, he made the choice, and he already got one FA contract out of Milwaukee. He's the type of player who's still productive and valuable, yet replaceable, who should be flipped for younger impact talent.

 

Every productive player isn't a "core" player... Fielder was never a core player because he was never going to sign here long-term. Weeks isn't a core player because he's been hurt or ineffective too much of his career. McGehee should have never ever been considered, he didn't have the talent, thank goodness Casey saved Melvin from himself on that one. Furthermore the thing about core players is that their contracts tend to be extremely moveable if the player becomes replaceable, like a James Shields. That's going to be Gallardo at some point as he's not resigning here, his physical skills are declining, but he'll likely be a good pitcher for some years to come. I would flip for him for the Shields package 100 times out of 100 if we find ourselves in that kind of position.

 

A core player is a player you build a team around, someone the team controls long-term. That's a special kind of player with special talent. If we're talking the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, or similar large market team that can sign an impact FA for 7-10 years sure a 30 something like Sabathia can be a core player, but that's not the Brewers reality. There's no such thing as a core player if the player is signed to a 3-4 contract, hometown discount or not, there's too much risk in terms of the dollars, production, and health with too short of service time.

 

Think about it this way, a core player is basically someone you don't need to have MiLB depth behind because you aren't looking to replace them anytime soon. Sure MiLB depth behind the player would be fantastic and is definitely a best case, but there's no hole on the MLB roster that we're going to be looking to fill anytime soon. To replace a player on a 3 year contract the replacement player basically has to already be in the system considering the Brewer's recent draft positions, we aren't picking college super studs in the first 5 picks anymore, we're picking players that need to be developed. That's the problem with short term solutions like Sabathia/Greinke/Marcum and fill in players like Wolf and Ramirez... the problem is really never solved... the hole is just temporarily patched for a couple of years and then it comes back around.

 

If we don't cycle talent back on itself through trades then we're entirely dependent on what the system develops and FA, and the Brewers aren't able to outbid anyone for a marquee FA, haven't done well in Latin America (haven't done much of anything to be more precise), and haven't drafted well. Hence we lack flexibility of any kind: we don't have much talent to flip for anything, we have a maxed out payroll every year, and we don't have multiple options at any position but 1B, all because Melvin just plays the same patching game every year. It's whack-a-mole with roster spots over and over and over.

 

Unfortunately I just don't think there's room for sentimental attachment to players anymore, it's not good business. If a player won't sign early with some option years, trade them or let them hit FA and move on to the next dude... Next Man Up! There's nothing fair about the compensation system or uneven resources between teams in MLB so the Brewers have to exploit the system in a different way than the media will regularly publicize. My 3 players were once Braun, Hardy, and Hart... the only Brewer memorabilia I own is JJ Hardy related and I wanted to trade him for pitching after 2008, I'd trade Hart now for any impact talent, and I'll probably be willing to trade Braun in 3-4 years for the right return. I'm not saying my point of view is the only way the Brewers can maintain success, but I do think it's the easiest path, which is why I've been consistently championing the same things for many years now.

[DHonks]

I worry about the three viable options at 1b. I assume you mean Green, Morris, and Davis, but I trust none of them. I like seeing some more production. Green has had 1.5 good seasons, Morris 1, and Davis a couple (but for some reason scouts don't like him). Assuming it fits in our budget, I prefer Hart at $8-12M over these options at league minimum. If they show they are capable of producing, I will change my mind. I also wouldn't mind trading Weeks if he has a big year, but we have no viable replacement and we'd miss his offense (when healthy). Aoki and Gomez worry me most on the Brewers. I'm fine with them opening the year in the lineup, but I have no clue what to expect.

 

Seeing as our rotation and bullpen are so young and cheap, I'm in no hurry to consider moving Yo, Weeks, Ramirez, the catchers, or Braun. Things change though.

[trwi7]

Green has had 1.5 good seasons, Morris 1, and Davis a couple (but for some reason scouts don't like him). Assuming it fits in our budget, I prefer Hart at $8-12M over these options at league minimum. If they show they are capable of producing, I will change my mind.

 

So you prefer Hart making big money into his mid 30s over guys who are cheap and controllable for 6 years but you will change your mind if they show they are capable of producing. How exactly are they going to show that if Hart is starting and they're sitting in the minors?

[brewcrewdue80]

I also wouldn't mind trading Weeks if he has a big year, but we have no viable replacement and we'd miss his offense (when healthy). Aoki and Gomez worry me most on the Brewers. I'm fine with them opening the year in the lineup, but I have no clue what to expect.

 

I'd Trade Weeks on a decent year much less a Big Year. His Defense just isn't cutting it and that bat last year didn't play up enough to compensate for his Defense. Segura can play 2b/SS,Gennett is 2b but in a trade you could look for a 2b or SS because of Segura's capabilities.

 

I'm with you on worried about Gomez. I think this Offseason shows he's not worthy of a QO barring a season where he exceeds his production from last year...problem is he will bat in what 7 spot? Good Luck! I will say that Gomez and the QO system not working out may make him better in trade value now in season than before. Teams are likely in the perception Gomez isn't a QO type player to begin with and acquiring him for a stretch run for a decent prospect or 2 is worth it.

Aoki on the other hand was a multiple batting champ from where he came from and I don't see how what he showed last season would concern me of him not being able to repeat. In fact I believe he will be better since he has his role as leadoff hitter cemented vs. just trying to fit in some where.

 

Anyway this was about BA top 100. What did anyone expect? The team didn't draft risk/high upside players with their 1st rd picks in 2011. They went College players who they could run through the system and start. There are going to be 2011/2012 ranked players that are there on hype being a high draft pick. Many of them wont make it like Bradley who was ranked last year Looking at the other Central teams.

Stl. Taveras-as a result of Latin Scouting/signing, Miller a 1st rd pick HS Pitcher in 2009 vs. ours flaming out,Carlos Martinez-Another Latin Scouting/signing,Trevor Rosenthal 2009 gem find, Wacha-1st rd pick in 2012,Wong 1st rd pick in 2011. So when you look at it 2 are Latin signings 1 a HS 1st rd pick and a late rd gem. Other two I'm not concerned with.

Cincy-Hamilton 2nd rd find2009 all about speed,Stephenson 1st rd 2011,Cingrani great 3rd rd pick 2011,Corcino Latin signing. Scary to think where Cincy would stand with 1st rd players panning out vs just 1.

Cubs-Baez 2011 9th seclection,Almora 2012 6th selection,Soler Latin signing,Vizcaino Latin signing. If you're top 10 pick I'd expect you to make top 100 prospect on next 3years so then it's Latin signings here. Vizcaino coming off injury.

Pirates-Cole 1st pick 2011,Taillon 2nd pick 2010,Polanco Latin signing,Henson Latin signing,Heredia Latin signing

Cubs/Pirates are a product of top 10 picks within last 3 drafts.

The rest are Latin signings which Peralta was one for Milw. I'm not upset with where the Brewers are behind the Central teams when you look at who they have in the top 100. Looks like more Latin Scouting is needed. Then again a lot of the Latin players in this list are there after having a very good year. They all aren't going to pan out.

 

Where's a top 200 list? How many players in that do the Brewers have in relation to the rest of the Central teams? I'd think the Brewers would fill up a lot of slots in that next 100 ranking. And then see a similar amount within top 200 to rest of the Central teams. For what it's worth if Peralta and Thornburg both perform well I don't see a big drop vs the other teams' top 2 in this list. Ours just happens to have more MLB experience to this point.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure what a top 200 will prove when over 60% of the players on the top 100 won't reach their ceilings as players for various reasons.

 

It's not entirely about draft position, the Pirates have missed with high draft picks as well, every team misses with high draft picks. You point out draft position, then players signed in Latin America that are making difference, but ignore the Latin players in your final analysis? Where's the biggest difference between the Brewers and the rest of the teams? The Latin players...

 

I really like Thornburg but he's not in the same prospect class as Bundy, Fernandez, or Miller. No one is saying that BA's list is the prospect gospel, I would quibble about the placement of at least 20 guys on that list. However, to suggest that our system is "good" or compares favorably to the other teams in our division is laughable.

 

It's easy to bag on the Cubs and Pirates because of where they've been picking, but STL has be drafting in a very similar position to Milwaukee and has smoked us, they've been better at the MLB level and the MiLB level, they've worked us bad. In fact the draft position argument is the same argument that was mentioned time and time again about TB... they built their team with high draft picks, so what? Well that wasn't really any more true than what the Brewers did, only Freidman had the foresight to target young pitching in trades and built their WS rotation via that route. I don't get dismissing teams who's talent pool is ascending just because of where they drafted when that's exactly how the Brewers were built initially.

 

Draft position isn't everything and any way you slice it the Brewers haven't drafted well by comparison. There's no excusing it away, that's the reality of the situation. We have a system full of high floor players with very few performing high ceiling type prospects. Hopefully last year's positional draft picks hit the ground running and put up some big numbers so we have something to get excited about, but they have to perform above R ball before any of us should get really excited and for national pundits to notice. Players already in the system like Arcia putting up a monster season would help as well, as would Morris repeating last year's dominance at the plate. We simply have a ton of "ifs"... from our top pitchers finding enough control to stick as starters (it's unfortunate that basically every scouting report on our pitchers reads the same) to injured positional players with upside who didn't get to perform very long or not at all in 2012.

 

If we get some nice breakout performances from pitchers/hitters with legitimate upside then we can start claiming some parity but if our guys simply hold their own then we're still where we were coming into last year's draft. Again, I really like the positional players taken early in that draft, though like Paul I'm not sure Haniger pick made much sense given the players taken before and after. The problem is that we're woefully thin on any potential impact pitching below AA through the DSL... I still find it hard to believe that we don't have single LHP with a big arm starting some place in the organization.

 

We can bicker about the exact placement of specific prospects or the team on these lists but in the end the Brewers are clearly bottom 3rd as a farm system and that doesn't bode well for the future given the contracts we have expiring over the next couple of years. Especially when the Cubs and Cards can spend more than the Brewers and fill holes in ways the Brewers cannot. If we can get some of this young pitching to maximize potential by getting 2-3 #2s out of Peralta, Rogers, Hellweg, Thornburg, etc then we'll be okay at least in the short-term, but we still have long-term issues that need to be addressed.

 

It's just not OK to have a single Brewer on the top 100 list every year and no one in the top 50. While it's certainly better than no Brewer prospects being on the list we're still losting ground as we need to be in the 3-5 range on the top 100 every year. If you think about it on average every team should have at least 3... we need to have the potential to replace the production we're going to be losing. As said earlier, we won't be able to replace 3-4 WAR players with 1-2 WAR players and stay competitive, that's a losing battle.

[monty57]

Sure, minor league games are fun to watch, but really all I care about in regards to the Brewers' farm system is how it will help the team in the future. At this point, I don't see any way (through graduating players to the majors, or through trading prospects for MLB players) that our farm will allow us to replace the MLB talent we are going to lose in the next few seasons. If we replace our current talented players with less talented players, logic would dictate that we will not be as good in the future as we are today, and we're probably not a playoff team today.

 

The only way I see us being competitive in the not-too-distant future is for us to trade some aging, expensive MLB pieces for younger, less expensive, but still talented pieces. It doesn't seem that the Melvin/Attanasio combo is capable of doing that.

[brewcrewdue80]

Sorry, I was running low on time to complete my post. I made a quick quib on Latin Players after the top picks being listed. The Brewers have Peralta...I wanted to look up others in the works I'm not familar with before commenting more. I noticed in looking these players up that are listed in top 100, that many of them came off of huge seasons like Morris'.. I have a belief that since they are Latin Players and not known as well like players who are drafted, these big seasons shoot them up on the radar in to these rankings. It's whether they, like Morris continue on that big season to keep them in the rankings. Many of them were in the 50-94 range so if they fall back to earth a ranking next year out of the top 100 isn't seen as a poor ranking looking back. This is kinda like Peralta, big 2011 a ranking of 56. Not a big year in 2012 and a lower ranking. Had Peralta not performed well in his ML innings, I wonder if he even makes the top 100.

 

You're right though it is lousy to not have a top 50 prospect but then again you had Bradley's year that in a progression year likely landed him in the top 50 vs out of top 100. Roache's injury keeps him down until he has a big year. (Fingers crossed) You gotta look at kinda what it is, Covey's non signing,Arnett's failure, the poor 2011 draft and 2012 draft is tbd. It's sad the club hasn't hit on one of the mid picks like Stl or Cincy recently. They did have Lucroy though and you cant expect every year to have 2nd/3rd rd picks wind up being high producing ML players. Taylor seems like a potential winner in one of those picks. And for the down players, Gagnon just continues to produce. I mention a top 200 ranking because as has been stated with many a time, the club has a bunch of players with high Floors but not high ceilings. What if Coulter,Roache,Gagnon,Prince,Morris,Taylor,Lopez break out further and have decent to monster minor league seasons? That's 7 players that with graduation of prospects we have the potential of seeing ranked in next year's top 100. Then this year's rankings are moot. The team's perception within the rankings are then caught up with reality. If next year we don't see more than 1 in top 100 then I'm going to be concerned.

 

 

Give it another Year with these rankings. Let's see how the Club's top 20 prospects perform this year and where they fall next year if they still qualify to be ranked as a prospect.

[monty57]

But don't most teams have guys who aren't in the top 100 because of some question marks? What worries me is that the Brewers are getting the same results from everyone who rates them. Some raters like "raw" high ceiling guys, while others like "more polished" MLB ready guys. Some like traditional scouting while others like reading stat lines. Whatever their system for rating players, they're all coming out and saying that the Brewers system is filled with fringe major leaguers.

 

I don't believe there is some big conspiracy against the Brewers, and I have to believe that most of these guys have some clue as to what they're doing. Therefore, I think it's pretty optimistic to believe that everyone is just missing the boat and that the Brewers have tons of talent that just isn't being noticed. Sure, some players may break out, but that could be said about any system. Obviously I hope it happens for the Brewers, but it's not a good strategy to hope and pray that your guys defy the odds, and that seems to be where we're sitting right now.

[TheCrew07]

Yes that's true Monty, but I was thinking of guys like Arcia and Roache who didn't even get to play professionally in 2012 when I was talking about break outs. If Roache is healthy we don't even get to pick him but if Arcia had blown up Helena like we expected him to prior to his injury I think he's top 100 guy.

 

Can our pitchers bounce back? A guy like Bradley for example? I'm not sold on that at all, there is a very disturbing trend of Brewer college pitching draft picks losing significant velocity and all have been 1st or 2nd round picks... Arnett, Heckathorn, Adams, and Bradley off the top of my head, even some of the high school guys like Anundsen lost velocity, and none of the others regained their velocity so I'm not holding out much hope for Bradley. I will say that I would love for Bradley to turn it around because we need a LHSP who has some upside in the worst way but it just seems unlikely given the Brewer's history with this type player. All players are different so there's always hope, I just don't know how to quantify how much hope there really is. A break out pitching performance for me would someone like Pena finding his control, or Thornburg ceasing to give up piles of XBH, or Nelson dominating AA, or Hellweg laying waste to AAA, or Jungmann missing bats in AA... basically a player taking a significant step forward, and for most of our pitchers it's going to be about them finding more control. Jungmann would be the outlier there as he needs better secondary stuff to succeed at the upper levels.

[brewcrewdue80]

Everyone is right about the bottom 3rd in rankings. Not having a top 50 is really a result from failures of Jungmann/Bradley and Covey not signing when via draft picks. And then it's on Latin talent signings of which as mentioned Arcia is one to expect a future ranking in the top 100 with results thus far. While it sounds gloomy in comparison to other teams, I'm not going to wipeout all the other guys from becoming ML contributors for the Brewers. We'll let it all play out. There's a core to start with and the remaining needs will either be filled out with replacement level players via FA or these players in our system pan out and become part of the core. I can live with only the pitchers working out with the bats of Segura/Braun/Lucroy to build with.

Taylor,Roache,Arcia and Coulter are the big 4 where if just 2 of them make it as core players the team is in good standing. Give it a year for these guys to crack this 100 ranking, Meanwhile the NL Central clubs each will graduate 2 of their top 100 players,Cardinals with 3, maybe 4 this year. So this will shift back towards us being equal with them.

Won't lie the team desparately needs an OF to make it and 1b/3b to make it. Of course, via trade they could acquire at least one of the three and in Gomez/Hart/Weeks/Ramirez/dare I say Gallardo? there's players that you have to figure one will net a contributor.

[trwi7]

BA released their updated top 50 today.

 

Cardinals have #2, #12, #24 and #47

 

Pirates have #11, #13 and #39 (Cole no longer on the list)

 

Reds have #27 and #36

 

Cubs have #10, #16 and #18

 

Predictably the Brewers have none.

 

http://ht.ly/mKPHj

[nate82]

BA released their updated top 50 today.

 

Cardinals have #2, #12, #24 and #47

 

Pirates have #11, #13 and #39 (Cole no longer on the list)

 

Reds have #27 and #36

 

Cubs have #10, #16 and #18

 

Predictably the Brewers have none.

 

http://ht.ly/mKPHj

 

I don't really get the love affair with Hamilton. To me he has only one tool and that is his speed and that is it. Yes his speed tool is probably one of the best in a long time but at the plate Hamilton is Juan Pierre. I expect him to be a .250/.300/.300 hitter in the majors and I am sorry but that is not someone that I would put in any top 50 prospect list ever. He has no power in his bat and his left handed swing is an extreme work in progress. He is looking more and more like a pinch runner and platoon player at best why is he even in a top 50 prospect list?

 

For Hamilton to have any value at all in the majors he is going to have an OBP around .400 and I just do not see him doing that as he strikes out at a high rate and he doesn't really walk all that much. I fully expect Dusty Baker to bat him in the leadoff spot and just about every other manager in MLB to do the same because of his speed. He will have a few years where he will be good but nothing special again not someone I would put on a top 50 prospect list. Top 100 yes but he is not a top 50 prospect.

[TheCrew07]

don't really get the love affair with Hamilton. To me he has only one tool and that is his speed and that is it.

 

He's at least a 2 tool player and his arm will be average. He'll likely never hit for power, but his swing continues to improve. I see a floor as a solid utility guy and a ceiling of a 1st division CF for 6-7 years. Who knows, maybe he'll get in the weight improve and improve his power as his speed naturally declines.

 

He can't steal 1st but he does things that no one else can do:

A few years ago, the Internet spawned a meme called Matt Wieters facts, where impossible feats were attributed to baseball's top prospect. (One sample: Matt Wieters draws intentional walks in batting practice.) Billy Hamilton facts seem equally overblown--except they're true. When a left fielder lost sight of a fly ball, Hamilton ran out from his shortstop position to catch it near the warning track. He scored a game-winning run on a sacrifice fly that didn't leave the infield. He scored from second on an infield grounder... ...He turns in hard-to-comprehend 3.35-3.4 second times to first base on bunts from the left side...

 

I'm not normally a guy who will pimp speed prospects, because speed is the first tool to leave a player, but in this case I think he'll be very productive until his late 20s.