Narveson article... Brewers 2013 starting rotation

[xisxisxis]

Narveson is a super cheap

 

Super cheap would be minimum salary. At >$800K he's no longer super.

 

league average pitcher

 

League average pitcher is a War of ~2. Narveson has average a WAR of 1.2 the last 3 years (ignoring last year). So he's below league average.

 

albeit with a recent injury which could derail that,

 

And the strongest predictor for future injury is past injury so he is a risk to miss significant time if his shoulder makes it through spring training.

 

but that is still a rare commodity.

 

Cheap, below average starters with a major shoulder injury, 3-4 years past their peak year and with a consistent regression each year is hardly a rare commodity....

[Ennder]

League average pitcher is a War of ~2. Narveson has average a WAR of 1.2 the last 3 years (ignoring last year). So he's below league average.

 

This is very disingenuous. His last 2 healthy years are 1.6 WAR and 1.8 WAR and they are both partial seasons. He is exactly league average. If he were a FA he would get a raise and a substantial one.

[RobertR]

Honestly, there are enough unknown quantities in the pitching staff that I'm willing to see just who's throwing the ball well in Spring Training and go from there. Odds are there's going to be some change in the staff anyways once the season starts. I fully expect to see 7 or 8 different pitchers start games and I don't think a midseason trade is beyond the realm of possibility.

 

I agree that Narveson doesn't have the upside of some of the Brewers prospects, but I think his downside is fairly small as well.

 

Really, the big questions I'd have would be for Roenicke. How prepared is he to change things up if guys in the starting rotation, other than Gallardo, are struggling? Sticking with Wolf as long as he did last year was arguably his biggest mistake of the season. Does he treat the pitching rotation decided in Spring Training, as written in stone or is he willing to make changes?

 

I realize guys are going to go through bad stretches and you can't yank a guy from the rotation every time there's a bad outing, but figuring out when to make a change and being willing to make it, may be an important managerial decision this year that could make the difference between a successful or unsuccessful season.

[Roderick]

Narveson is a super cheap

 

Super cheap would be minimum salary. At >$800K he's no longer super.

 

Narveson is $350K more than a rookie's min. wage. He is super cheap per baseball thresholds.

[xisxisxis]

This is very disingenuous. His last 2 healthy years are 1.6 WAR and 1.8 WAR and they are both partial seasons. He is exactly league average. If he were a FA he would get a raise and a substantial one.

 

You do know that 1.6 and 1.8 are less than 2 and hence the term "below" average applies. I get your defense of Narveson. I get your defense of Manny Parra. You've clearly gone out on a limb to pimp both of them and you need to back that stance up no matter what the data shows. Clearly numbers don't lie and while adjectives can be open to argumentation, the bottom line is that doesn't make it true in the world we occupy together.

 

Narveson started 28 games in 2010 and 2011. Exactly what you'd expect for a 5th starter so "partial seasons" just ain't genuine...

[Ennder]

This is very disingenuous. His last 2 healthy years are 1.6 WAR and 1.8 WAR and they are both partial seasons. He is exactly league average. If he were a FA he would get a raise and a substantial one.

 

You do know that 1.6 and 1.8 are less than 2 and hence the term "below" average applies. I get your defense of Narveson. I get your defense of Manny Parra. You've clearly gone out on a limb to pimp both of them and you need to back that stance up no matter what the data shows. Clearly numbers don't lie and while adjectives can be open to argumentation, the bottom line is that doesn't make it true in the world we occupy together.

 

Narveson started 28 games in 2010 and 2011. Exactly what you'd expect for a 5th starter so "partial seasons" just ain't genuine...

 

I haven't had a defense of Manny Parra in like 6 years. He simply was not the same guy he was before the injuries. My only defense of him is it isn't some mental block, it is a talent block.

 

As for Narveson I'm not exactly a fan of his or anything, I just go by what the numbers tell me. If he pitches a full season he is a 2 WAR player and he has pitched just like a 2 WAR player for 2 years now. WAR is a counting stat so yes not playing a full season matters, if he gets 32 starts he is sitting right at 2 WAR both years. If you are going to compare him to #5's though he is well above average as a #5. I thought we were comparing him to pitchers as a whole. He is the wrong type of pitcher for our team and park though. Flyball pitchers who don't have elite Ks are always going to struggle on our team. If he played in SD or SF people would be all over him as a #3 type starter. Instead he pitches here so he is apparently garbage. His 4.20ish career xFIP/FIP probably paints the picture of his true talent. His 4.70ish career ERA probably paints about what he will do when put into a situation that doesn't really fit his style which is where we will have him. He will give up too many HR in our park.

 

I'm not sure where the snarky attitude comes from. I'm the last person in the world that is going to defend a player if the stats don't agree with my argument. There are plenty of posters on this site that wield stats as a weapon only showing the stats that agree with their opinion, I'm certainly not one of them.

[Bombers]

Agreed. Any of Peralta/Fiers/Rogers can give you the 4.5+ ERA you're going to get from Narveson, and they have better upside. Narveson, if healthy & able to contribute, should be in the bullpen. He'd be able to stretch out in the event of injury.

This is where I am at. Put Narveson in the pen to be the long man. To me Estrada, Peralta and Fiers spots are locked, so Narveson is competing against Rogers. The Brewers will need more than 5 starters and I would expect Narveson to be that 6th guy. Similar to what Estrada has been in previous years.

 

The only way I see him in the season opener starting 5 is, as TheCrew07 said, he is lights out in Spring Training and Rogers doesn't do well. Then it would be a difficult decision to put him in the pen and give Rogers the nod.

[Warning Track Power]

This is where I am at. Put Narveson in the pen to be the long man. To me Estrada, Peralta and Fiers spots are locked, so Narveson is competing against Rogers. The Brewers will need more than 5 starters and I would expect Narveson to be that 6th guy. Similar to what Estrada has been in previous years.

 

Seconded. Assuming the hitting comes close to matching last season's production, this 2013 season is about seeing what we have with our young pitching and seeing how far they can take us. If Estrada, Peralta, Fiers and Rogers are who they were in 2012, the Brewers should be in the hunt for 87-92 wins and make the NL Central a 3 team race instead of the perceived Reds-Cardinals race.

[reillymcshane]

Narveson's WAR is quite different between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference:

 

fWAR

2010: 1.8

2011: 1.6

 

bWAR

2010: -0.4

2011: 0.6

 

I tend to think he was better than bWAR rates him, but that's just me.

 

No matter what you think, I believe it's hard to think Narveson can be ask good or better than his 2010-11 seasons. He is 31 and coming off an arm injury. I would simply be wary about thinking he can return to his pre-injury form due to both factors. It doesn't mean he can't, but the odds are probably stacked against him - at least to some degree.

 

Still, it's pretty early to be assessing the guy before anyone has even seen him in a game. Perhaps he'll be back to form in no time. No one can say until it happens.

 

Even if Narvy isn't up to snuff to be in the rotation, I always thought he could be a good loogy. He has pretty significant splits - the last three years righties have hit him for a .783 OPS vs a .640 OPS for lefties.

[Ennder]

Yeah pitching WAR is a pretty tricky subject in general. He seems like a pretty average guy though. I don't have any problems at all just going with all the young guys. Just don't think the team is in a bad place when Narveson is the #5 either. A lot of teams would love him as a #5.

[jerichoholicninja]

Who else would you put in the rotation? Gallardo and Estrada are/should be guaranteed spots. Fiers and Peralta probably grab two more. That leaves Narveson, Rogers, and Thornburg for the last spot. I don't think Tyler is ready, he wasn't very good in the majors last year and a full year at AAA wouldn't hurt. Rogers looked decent last year but I don't think you can count on him to be healthy for a full season, and even if he does stay healthy he didn't throw enough innings last year to start the whole season. When Rogers gets hurt he will be more easily replaced if he's in the bullpen rather than the rotation. Narveson isn't a great pitcher but he is more than serviceable. My only concern with him is his health after surgery.

 

What I would really like to see the Brewers do is trade for one of the Dodgers starters that doesn't make their rotation.

[Fear The Chorizo]

That leaves Narveson, Rogers, and Thornburg for the last spot.

 

And there's your #5 starter. Thornburg starts in AAA and is the "next man up" if injury or ineffectiveness plagues the rotation. Rogers and Narveson battle it out in spring training for the opening day spot, but neither of them can be counted on to give a full season of start innings. #5's typically pitch around 170-180 innings if I'm not mistaken. I'd rather start the season with Rogers in the rotation and Narveson in long relief, but I'm fine the other way around, too.

 

The advantage the Brewers have in this year's rotation is they don't have #4-#5 starters making 10 million dollars this season, ala Randy Wolf or Suppan. They seem to have a handful of younger pitchers that can fit into that role, and it will be easier to make personnel changes if some struggle. They have options that don't include overpaying veteran starters to eat innings, which I like. To get quality starting pitching, teams need to pay through the nose to get true aces. The Brewers aren't a team that should be dedicating 10% of their payroll for a #4 or #5 starting pitcher.

[TheCrew07]

Wouldn't it make sense to worry about Rogers' inning limit if he actually approaches it? As in how about we cross that bridge when we get there?

 

I'm not sure how we adequately justify putting Rogers' arm in the pen given the disparity in talent between him and Narveson. If Rogers doesn't finish the season maybe Thornburg is ready by then, or Burgos, or someone else to pick up the last 5-6 starts. It doesn't have to be Narveson but it could be if he was in the pen. To me the innings limit thing doesn't carry much weight. I'd rather have 160 innings of a healthy and effective Mark Rogers than I would 180 innings of Narveson. We'll likely use more than 5 starting pitchers over the course of the year anyway so I don't understand trying to make a decision in Feb or Mar about someone's health or an inning limit in August. We have many more internal options for depth than ever before, depth wise we'll be fine.

 

Putting Narveson in the rotation simply because he was there before or because he's LH is extremely short sighted in my opinion, but would be the RR/Melvin thing to do. Yes I understand we don't have a good LH starting pitcher anywhere in the system at this point so we're LH deficient as an organization but until Rogers proves inneffective I see very little reason why Narveson should ever slot in front of a more talented pitcher. If Mark fails by all means move him to the pen, but don't put him there just because he's not "proven" and may have an innings limit.

[monty57]

Wouldn't it make sense to worry about Rogers' inning limit if he actually approaches it? As in how about we cross that bridge when we get there?

 

I'm not sure how we adequately justify putting Rogers' arm in the pen given the disparity in talent between him and Narveson. If Rogers doesn't finish the season maybe Thornburg is ready by then, or Burgos, or someone else to pick up the last 5-6 starts. It doesn't have to be Narveson but it could be if he was in the pen. To me the innings limit thing doesn't carry much weight. I'd rather have 160 innings of a healthy and effective Mark Rogers than I would 180 innings of Narveson. We'll likely use more than 5 starting pitchers over the course of the year anyway so I don't understand trying to make a decision in Feb or Mar about someone's health or an inning limit in August. We have many more internal options for depth than ever before, depth wise we'll be fine.

 

Putting Narveson in the rotation simply because he was there before or because he's LH is extremely short sighted in my opinion, but would be the RR/Melvin thing to do. Yes I understand we don't have a good LH starting pitcher anywhere in the system at this point so we're LH deficient as an organization but until Rogers proves inneffective I see very little reason why Narveson should ever slot in front of a more talented pitcher. If Mark fails by all means move him to the pen, but don't put him there just because he's not "proven" and may have an innings limit.

 

Boy that's a good point. Wouldn't it be nice if Melvin had to make the decision to shut Rogers down in August due to him hitting his innings limit after a good season? Wouldn't that make all the years of waiting worthwhile?

[TURBO]

Wouldn't it make sense to worry about Rogers' inning limit if he actually approaches it? As in how about we cross that bridge when we get there?

 

I'm not sure how we adequately justify putting Rogers' arm in the pen given the disparity in talent between him and Narveson. If Rogers doesn't finish the season maybe Thornburg is ready by then, or Burgos, or someone else to pick up the last 5-6 starts. It doesn't have to be Narveson but it could be if he was in the pen. To me the innings limit thing doesn't carry much weight. I'd rather have 160 innings of a healthy and effective Mark Rogers than I would 180 innings of Narveson. We'll likely use more than 5 starting pitchers over the course of the year anyway so I don't understand trying to make a decision in Feb or Mar about someone's health or an inning limit in August. We have many more internal options for depth than ever before, depth wise we'll be fine.

 

Putting Narveson in the rotation simply because he was there before or because he's LH is extremely short sighted in my opinion, but would be the RR/Melvin thing to do. Yes I understand we don't have a good LH starting pitcher anywhere in the system at this point so we're LH deficient as an organization but until Rogers proves inneffective I see very little reason why Narveson should ever slot in front of a more talented pitcher. If Mark fails by all means move him to the pen, but don't put him there just because he's not "proven" and may have an innings limit.

 

 

This is exactly how I feel. Nice post!

[WV Brew]

What do you think of piggybacking Rogers and Narveson? I'm not sure Mark is ready yet. He has these troublesome control issues at times. If he were put on a pitch count, they could bring in Narveson to finish his start. Rogers has had trouble getting into the 6th even in the minors. Since the 5th starter may be skipped at times, Narveson could float to the bullpen when not needed.

[Ennder]

I don't really think Rogers has more talent than Narveson but I would be trying to get what I can out of him before his arm falls off to be honest.

 

Why doesn't anyone talk about how iffy the Cardinals rotation is btw? I mean Garcia has a shoulder injury that may make him miss a big chunk of the year. Lynn is a lot like Fiers where he kind of came out of nowhere had a great stretch and an awful one. Westbrook and Kelly are nothing special. Miller is having some shoulder problems now. I think their rotation is very comparable to ours. The Reds are clearly a step ahead of the Brewers but we match up with the Cardinals and I think the Pirates are still a year or two away.

[JohnBriggs12]

Rogers is 27 with a very limited major league career. Since when did he become Stephen Strasburg? I don't get the point of what they'd be saving him for. He's out of options. It's time for him to pitch. If he stands up to the rigors, great. If not like Ennder suggests, get what you can while you can.

 

I personally think they did him a disservice last year by shutting him down when he finally was showing he looked like a major league starter. Had he finished last year in fine fashion, his confidence would be that much higher and confidence and ability to throw strikes is what held him back. At his age, building Rogers confidence was worth the risks of a few dozen innings.

[monty57]

I posted this in the Peralta thread, but it's worth noting here as well. MLBtraderumors wrote that the Brewers will gain an extra year of service time on Peralta (through 2019) if he's in the minors until late May, and he'd no longer be a "Super two" if he stays in the minors until mid-July.

 

In other words, if we start the season with a rotation of Gallardo, Estrada, Fiers, Narveson, and Rogers, with Peralta in AAA for around two months, we would control Peralta through his age 30 season. I think an extra full year of his prime may be worth more than two months at the beginning of this season. In late May, he could come up and replace whichever pitcher needs replacing.

[Ennder]

That seems very reasonable Monty. Get Peralta some more confidence in AAA and I'm sure someone will get hurt or be ineffective early and need to be replaced.

[PrinceFielderx1]

That seems very reasonable Monty. Get Peralta some more confidence in AAA and I'm sure someone will get hurt or be ineffective early and need to be replaced.

 

I think that is a terrible idea. Do you guys remember how long it took Doug Melvin to pull the plug on Suppan when it was obvious he was done? We had to deal with a few months of that crap, and it wasn't a short stint. I think the Brewers have a legit shot to be contenders this season and the last thing I want is for an ineffective pitcher to be blocking Peralta for month(s).

[reillymcshane]

One of the guys at Disciples of Uecker wrote this about our starting pitching:

 

My rotation would be:

 

Yovani Gallardo

Marco Estrada

Mike Fiers

Mark Rogers

Wily Peralta

 

It will be an uphill battle for the Brewers to reach the postseason, and this potential rotation would be best for two reasons: (1) it’s the highest-upside rotation the Brewers possess, giving them the best chance at a postseason run if everything comes together, and (2) it would allow the organization to assess several young pitchers and put together a comprehensive plan of action for 2014.

 

http://disciplesofuecker.com/twitter-mailbag-morris-rotation-win-totals/8092

 

I guess I have to agree - although it scares me. We are not a loaded club and you're looking for a back end guy who will minimize downside. We need upside in the rotation. I'm really worried about putting two rookies in the rotation, but the alternatives have become very mediocre. Lohse would be a fine addition, but not at the cost (money and draft pick). I guess I'm on board with going with potential.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Jim Breen from disciples of Uecker. I used to post with him on the jsonline site way back. Another blogger there is Nicholas Zettel, who I like even more who I also posted with way back on the jsonline site and who I still post with from time to time. Extremely smart nice guy who is correct more often than not. I like that rotation from Jim, btw. Thanks for referencing it.

[Ennder]

I think that is a terrible idea. Do you guys remember how long it took Doug Melvin to pull the plug on Suppan when it was obvious he was done?

 

Suppan posted a 3.30 ERA and .324 wOBA the 2nd half of that year. He wasn't done he just had a terrible stretch. He pretty much got better every month of the season that year. I mean it stunk that we were still relying on Suppan at that point since he should have never got that long of a deal but Melvin didn't do anything wrong with how he handled it that year.

[torts]

#Brewers reinstated Chris Narveson from the DL and outrighted him to Nashville, removing him from the 40-man roster.

— Adam McCalvy (@AdamMcCalvy) June 21, 2013