Narveson article... Brewers 2013 starting rotation

[SuddenRedScare]

I for one would love to see Narveson back in the starting five. They could send Rogers to the pen and have him play the same role that Estrada played last year, which was waiting for that inevitable injury to a starter while pitching in relatively high leverage situations. Rogers has good stuff, but he lacks that third pitch and I can't say I'm sold on him as a starter just yet. Also, I love me a crafty lefty and I believe every complete rotation should have one.

[Ennder]

Fiers only throws in the high 80s so he can't be good apparently.

 

Joking aside Fiers is likely a low to mid 4 ERA pitcher but his skills haven't stabilized enough to know for sure. It will all depend on whether the league adjusts to his off-speed stuff or not since his fastball isn't good enough to live off of.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

Isn't Fiers kinda old, too? He'll be 28 in June, so he's no young phenom who's starting to put it all together.

 

Rogers is out of options, so at a minimum, he'll be in the pen until/if he doesn't impress in ST.

 

- YoGa? Of course.

 

- I still think Peralta is in. He has only 29 IP in the majors, so I'm worried, but he seemed poised and looks like one of those guys who'll stick. He's our 2nd-best starter. Zoinks!

 

- Fiers is our #3, fans. Wow.

 

- Estrada will be in, by default I guess, but given his flexibility to relieve, he could be bounced to the pen, as they give Fiers every chance. If Fiers tanks, it's Estrada who's ourt #3...and a half...starter

 

- Narveson will be one of the 5, because Roenicke seems to like him for some reason, and DM too often stockpiles LHPs for the rotation.

 

- As a surprise to some, I see Tom Gorzelanny in the rotation by...May. That's when Rogers will hit the DL. That, and I just can't imagine the Brewers with only 1 lefty - one whose arm fell off last year.

 

Brandon McCarthy was a free agent, was willing to take a 2-year deal with Arizona for only $15M, and we passed.

 

Dan Haren was expensive, I admit, but he would have been a #1 or a #2 on this team. Probably too much money, but I would have been thrilled if we got him.

 

For some reason, John Lannan was jerked around by the Nationals despite being pretty solid when he was there. Really? Their Opening Day starter had a 3.70 ERA in 2011, and he gets sent to the minors? Now the Phillies signed him for only $2.5 million!

 

Kyle McClennan came cheap to Texas, Peter Moylan went to the Dodgers on a minor league deal, and he's not bad, and even Scott Baker wasn't too expensive as a low-risk Cub signing.

 

I'm not saying I knew definitively that Melvin chose to ignore all these guys - it does take 2 to tango - but he could have been more creative in trying to assemble a better pitching staff to go with this offense which won't stay this good indefinitely.

[RockCoCougars]

So just to be clear steroids is cheating but having a surgery to give you a "new arm" is totally fine

 

I'd say that surgery falls somewhere between 'Greenies' and Gaylord Perry's spitball... or any other arguments that the steroid apologists use.

[Baldkin]

- Estrada will be in, by default I guess, but given his flexibility to relieve, he could be bounced to the pen, as they give Fiers every chance. If Fiers tanks, it's Estrada who's ourt #3...and a half...starter

 

Estrada is by FAR the 2nd best starter on the team going into this season. He has been amazing the last two seasons (3.58 and 3.48 xFIP) . If our manager decides to put him in the bullpen that would be more egregious then starting Mark Kotsay in CF in a playoff game.

 

Also, there's no way McCarthy was signing anywhere in the midwest. He is a California guy, and he was going to play somewhere out west.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't think there's a snowball's chance Estrada is not in the rotation. I don't really feel too confident about it, but at this point, he's basically the number two. I honestly think if one of the young guys goes to the pen, it'd be Fiers as a long guy/spot starter. I think that Rogers will be in the rotation no matter what. They baby his arm too much to put him in the pen, so he'll probably be the 5th starter, and will hopefully go 5-6 innings every fifth day.

[umphrey]

I think Peralta is probably on the shakiest ground mostly because he still has an option left. I wouldn't be surprised if they decide to delay his MLB career by a few months and wait for an injury to bring him up. I really don't want that to happen, I'd rather just put Narveson in the pen to start the year, because I'm pretty sure he's our 6th best starting pitcher.

[joepepsi]

Baseball Prospectus provides a nice, FREE!, article on the Brewers' rotation candidates.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19635#commentMessage

[Nottso]

I've wanted Estrada over Narveson in the rotation since day one. If he ends up on the dirty end of the stick again I may very well lose what's left of my mind.

[dlk9s]

So just to be clear steroids is cheating but having a surgery to give you a "new arm" is totally fine

http://i.imgur.com/Ek5QEfF.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

The beer analogies got pretty tedious, but aside from that it's an excellent read. Certainly far more in-depth than most content you find. Thanks for linking it, joepepsi.

[Thurston Fluff]

So the reason Barry Bonds is not in the Hall of Fame is because people are concerned about his long term health problems?

 

No he is not in the hall of fame because many people are concerned that someone else now has to choose between long term health problems and attaining the records he broke using them. Not to mention the guys who had to choose between long term health problems associated with steroids and getting a job over the likes of Bartolo Colon or Melky Cabrera.

[jerichoholicninja]

So the reason Barry Bonds is not in the Hall of Fame is because people are concerned about his long term health problems?

 

No he is not in the hall of fame because many people are concerned that someone else now has to choose between long term health problems and attaining the records he broke using them. Not to mention the guys who had to choose between long term health problems associated with steroids and getting a job over the likes of Bartolo Colon or Melky Cabrera.

 

Sandy Koufax couldn't lift his arm over his head when he retired. Playing a sport over 200 days a year causes long term health problems too.

[RobertR]

Frankly, playing football itself probably causes more long term health problems than PEDs. Which isn't an excuse for breaking the rules, but I think the PED debate lacks perspective a lot of the time.

 

People are mad that baseball players use PEDs because there's a myth of purity that they don't want to see shattered.

 

People also like to see home runs hit a long way and like to see players perform at a high level, and their team win, and will fill the stands and defend a player as long as those two goals are accomplished.

 

Frankly, there's a fine and probably scientifically unsupportable line between legal supplements and illegal PEDs. I kind of think in 20 years with a lot more science that the line will move considerably in the direction of getting all the performance of the PEDs without the side effects. And, we'll have to make a choice between optimal performance with supplements or supposed purity.

 

Robert

[DR28]

Here is my prediction on how our Staff shakes out:

 

Rotation

Gallardo

Estrada

Fiers

Peralta

Narveson

 

Bullpen

Axford

Gonzalez

Henderson

Gorzelanny

Kintzler

Badenhop

Rogers

[TURBO]

It saddens me that our rotation is such that Narveson has to be a consideration.

 

I am in the minority here, but I was hoping to be past having to use average stuff guys like Narvson to compete for jobs in our starting rotation. I'd much rather see young guys with future potential holding down our #4 and #5 spots rather than guys coming off major surgery that weren't anything special before the surgery to begin with.

 

Was hoping we'd be past that point now, but obviously, if he starts the season in the 5 hole, we are not.

[Ennder]

Narveson is a league average pitcher. Not exactly something you just toss away. Stick him in SF and people probably call him a #2 since his big headache is the longball.

[JohnBriggs12]

It saddens me that our rotation is such that Narveson has to be a consideration.

 

I am in the minority here, but I was hoping to be past having to use average stuff guys like Narvson to compete for jobs in our starting rotation. I'd much rather see young guys with future potential holding down our #4 and #5 spots rather than guys coming off major surgery that weren't anything special before the surgery to begin with.

 

Was hoping we'd be past that point now, but obviously, if he starts the season in the 5 hole, we are not.

 

 

You are underestimating Narveson's stuff. He's fanned 7.4 hitter per 9 innings in his career. In 2010, he had a WHIP nearly identical to Gallardo. Opposing hitters have a .259 BAA vs. Narveson for his career. For a 4-5 starter that's outstanding.

 

His fastball sits at 89-91, not 85-87. I'd describe him as a poor man's Cliff Lee. His stuff isn't quite as refined as Lee's, but they have similar deliveries, feature the same pitches and are both listed at 6'3" 205.

[trwi7]

His average fastball was 88.3 in 2010, 87.8 in 2011 and 86.6 last year. 85-87 is far more believable than 89-91.

[logan82]

Is Narveson worth the marginal wins over the young pitchers or would you rather go with one of the young guys to see what we have? I would rather go with the young guys. Higher upside also. If Narveson comes back and you can get something good in trade, I would trade him.

[dlk9s]

If we are working under the assumption that the Brewers have a shot at competing for the playoffs (and I think we are), I'd rather go with Narveson. We know he's solid. We're going to have enough youngsters in important pitching roles as it is.

[trwi7]

I'm not going to settle for mediocrity which is what Narveson is. Sure a young guy might be worse, in which case you can always replace him. A young guy could also be much better contributing more to the Brewers shot at the playoffs.

[TooLiveBrew]

Agreed. Any of Peralta/Fiers/Rogers can give you the 4.5+ ERA you're going to get from Narveson, and they have better upside. Narveson, if healthy & able to contribute, should be in the bullpen. He'd be able to stretch out in the event of injury.

[TheCrew07]

There was far too much team building logic in the last 2 posts, we need to return talk of gritty veterness and the fact that's he a LH. We need more "proven veteran" cliches "and that" to have meaningful discussions about the rotation.

 

If one of the young guys is just absolutely terrible in the spring and Narveson is lights out then maybe I could see penciling him in the rotation because he's been there before. However no pitchers above A ball offer the upside of Rogers and Peralta, I will admit that I'm unsure how long Rogers arm will hold together, but there has to be some reason behind the organization's use of him as a starter all these years. In fact I'm not willing to say that any of the inexperienced pitchers will pitch as well as they did for the big club last season, but when all of the players carry question marks I'd much rather take my shot with legitimate talent and see what the players can do, how they grow, and how they react to failure than recycle someone just because he was there before.

 

Someone posted earlier, I think it was in this thread, about hoping that we'd get the to point where the 4/5 spots in the rotation were being used by talented yet unproven starting pitchers getting their feet wet, not retreads who never had that much "stuff" to begin with. That's exactly how I would love for the Brewer's rotation to be ultimately setup. I will agree that in the end the best result is all that matters, but how many guys get results that don't have at least 1 plus pitch? Every Starting Pitcher with average velocity who's overachieved his stuff had a very good out pitch, the rest of the "know's how to pitch" crew are successful as relievers, and there is no shame in that. I'm fine with Fiers because he's cheap and effective but at some point I'd like to slot enough legit talent in front of him that he gets pushed to the pen, and I feel the same way about Narveson and Estrada.

 

I don't want those type of pitchers being our 2/3s... I want them in the bullpen, they can still cover rotation slots if we have an injury and no minor league pitcher is ready, but from a MLB talent standpoint those kind of guys are purely average and the idea shouldn't be to build around average. With Narvy, Estrada, and Fiers in the rotation that's 3 fringe average starters from a stuff standpoint, I'd rather we have 3 pitchers with more margin for error than that.

 

I'm aware of how we got here, I've been moaning about young pitching longer than I care to admit, but if Milwaukee is ever going to get over the hump from a pitching standpoint, now is the time to make a move and see what we have. Next year Thornburg and Hellweg will likely be in contention for rotation slots and there's guys like Burgos, Nelson, and Jungmann behind them. We have enough averagish SP that can be moved to the pen, we aren't going to have rotation slots for everyone, but what we need is to come up with 2-3 impact pitchers out of this crop. If that happens Yo becomes somewhat expendable and can be cycled back around for some young impact pitching, I'd love a James Shields type deal, which is odd since Shield's contract has been my model pitching contract for quite some time.

 

In no way do I want pitchers like Estrada, Fiers, and Narveson keeping more talented players from getting a shot and a chance to grow at the major league level. Again, average talent should never stand in the way of better talent, the idea should always be push to that average talent to the back of the rotation maybe all the bullpen. "Proven" is just a meaningless cliche, "proven" doesn't have anything to do which player is going to perform the best, there's too much grey area to make definitive claims either way. I'd much rather take shots with inexperienced and inexpensive players than the make the mistake of holding on to veterans 1 year too long.

 

It's not easy to let players like Farve and Woodson go, but I think in the end the Packers are better off for it, and I'd rather Melvin operate in that manner, making value signings in FA and letting our players go maybe a year too early and keep cycling that talent back around rather than all this talk of "the window". I'd like to slam that window shut right on his head, it might knock some sense into him.

 

The Brewers aren't an organization that's going to be able to sustain itself with veterans, and the sooner the organization as a whole accepts that fact and buys into the idea that even at the MLB level the coaches are going to have to be constantly developing talent, the better off the entire franchise is going is to be. Which in the end will lead to a better result on the field as well.

 

Young players will have to be the life blood of this franchise and the organization is going to have to be willing to groom them while giving them the room to fail and grow at the MLB level if we're going to sustain any success over the long-term. It's not where you start, it's where you finish and I'll take season like Hardy's first out of player we bring up... it doesn't bother me if they struggle for a couple of months or half a season, once they start to ascend they become a different ball player and it's "game on". I've never understood why it's okay for a vet to slump for a month or more but if a rookie does that he's "overmatched" or whatever other derogatory term someone wants to use. Every player will have a different learning and all it takes for them to blossom is patience to ride it out. Certainly some players will never get it and will need to be replaced, but struggling for a couple of months should be the expectation for every rookie player, very few are going to come up and hit like Braun did, and think sometimes people forgot how long it took Fielder to get going his rookie season. Instant production should be a nice surprise rather than the expectation.

[Ennder]

I'm not going to settle for mediocrity which is what Narveson is. Sure a young guy might be worse, in which case you can always replace him. A young guy could also be much better contributing more to the Brewers shot at the playoffs.

 

 

You are simply grossly underrating Narveson. He is the same type of pitcher as say Edwin Jackson who people are asking us to sign, only he plays for a lot less money. He is as good as Rick Porcello who people want us to trade for. He is as good as Mark Buehrle which teams have grossly overpaid for. He is better than Phil Hughes or Clay Buchholtz or Ervin Santana who teams have spent way too much money to pitch for them etc. Narveson is a super cheap league average pitcher albeit with a recent injury which could derail that, but that is still a rare commodity.