Michael Bourn to Indians - 4 years / $48 million

[reillymcshane]

Interesting outcome for Bourn.

 

Option for a 5th year based on 2016 playing time.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8938263/michael-bourn-gets-4-year-deal-cleveland-indians

[SuddenRedScare]

So does this mean Brantley is out of a job?

[Ennder]

Very odd choice. I would DFA Stubbs if I were them to be honest which makes that trade seem extra awful~.

[Kelbysdaddy]

DFAing stubbs would not make that trade awful by any means. cleveland got trevor bauer, matt albers, bryan shaw, and stubbs for choo, lars anderson, jason donald, and tony sipp. then signed swisher and bourn. they will be ok.

[Dollarbill13]

Good signing for the Tribe. Bourn has been a 4+ WAR player in each of the last 4 years. Even though he'll likely regress at some point, the Indians can quite possibly get their money's worth in the first two years of this deal. Brantley is a nice player but Bourn should be a pretty significant upgrade in the near-term. That said, if I'm DM, I'm calling Cleveland immediately about Brantley. I'd bet Brantley ends up with Seattle, though.

 

edit to correct spelling from Jason Bourne to Michael Bourn

[Ennder]

DFAing stubbs would not make that trade awful by any means. cleveland got trevor bauer, matt albers, bryan shaw, and stubbs for choo, lars anderson, jason donald, and tony sipp. then signed swisher and bourn. they will be ok.

 

I don't think Bauer becomes more than a #5 starter so we probably see that deal a lot differently.

[Dollarbill13]

DFAing stubbs would not make that trade awful by any means. cleveland got trevor bauer, matt albers, bryan shaw, and stubbs for choo, lars anderson, jason donald, and tony sipp. then signed swisher and bourn. they will be ok.

 

I don't think Bauer becomes more than a #5 starter so we probably see that deal a lot differently.

 

Well if that's the case you're probably right, although they still only gave up one year of Choo. Aside from his 16 bad innings in the bigs, Bauer has put up very impressive numbers in the minors. It's hard for me to project him to be anything less than a middle of the rotation starter, at which point I think they win that trade...

[Ennder]

Bauer's mechanics are awful and it is going to lead to a life of control problems. I think he is going to be an Oliver Perez type. Maybe he squeaks out a couple of great years but he wont' be consistently good. There was a method behind them trading him and it wasn't just a quirky start to his major league career or not liking the throwing program, they recognized long term issues he is going to have.

[dlk9s]

Man, that would be great if the Indians all of a sudden decided Bauer won't be more than a #5 starter so the Brewers could swoop in and get him.

[ewitkows]

I wonder if Carlos would sign this contract? Weren't a lot of people expecting him to get a deal north of 5/75?

[Ennder]

Man, that would be great if the Indians all of a sudden decided Bauer won't be more than a #5 starter so the Brewers could swoop in and get him.

 

 

Well yeah that would be nice since obviously there is upside in guys who can strike out tons of guys. Sometimes they get the control and sometimes they don't. Sometimes they fix their mechanics so they can find a consistent release point and sometimes they don't. I just don't think he is the can't miss type prospect that people seem to make him out to be.

 

The DBacks got a terrible return for him for sure though, can't really argue that.

[JohnBriggs12]

I wonder if Carlos would sign this contract? Weren't a lot of people expecting him to get a deal north of 5/75?

 

Gomez is younger. On the other hand Bourn is pure leadoff hitter and those are harder to find than free swinging 6th and 7th hitters. Bourn is also a better defender than Gomez.

 

What is interesting is that another Boras client, Ellsbury is also a FA after this season. It figures to be a crowded prime CF FA market next year with Granderson also in the mix. I'm thinking Boras could have Gomez take a qualifying offer from the Brewers and let Ellsbury go FA. Then Boras could come back the following year when Gomez will still be only 29, and still get him his big multi year deal then.

 

The question is will Gomez produce enough to warrant a qualifying offer from the Brewers? Even if it's a slight overpay, it might be the best option for the Brewers.

[monty57]

I wonder if Carlos would sign this contract? Weren't a lot of people expecting him to get a deal north of 5/75?

 

I'd take the other side on this. I don't think Gomez is a core player to build a team around, and I worry that other than an increase in power in 2012, he's still the .300 OBP guy many wanted to DFA at this time last year. To me, there's too much risk in locking up over 10% of the annual payroll on Gomez for four years.

 

Schafer is a competent replacement, and he's MLB ready now. If Bourn is worth 4 years/$48MM, then Gomez is worth some good talent in trade. I'd like to see Melvin try to trade Gomez for some near-MLB-ready position player talent, which is something we're desparately lacking.

[Ennder]

Pitchers have to start pitching off the plate on Gomez in an effort to avoid his power and he has to actually take the walks when they do it in order for him to be worth a big deal. As long as his OBP stays where it is he isn't going to get this kind of deal even with the power.

[ewitkows]

I wonder if Carlos would sign this contract? Weren't a lot of people expecting him to get a deal north of 5/75?

 

I'd take the other side on this. I don't think Gomez is a core player to build a team around, and I worry that other than an increase in power in 2012, he's still the .300 OBP guy many wanted to DFA at this time last year. To me, there's too much risk in locking up over 10% of the annual payroll on Gomez for four years.

 

Schafer is a competent replacement, and he's MLB ready now. If Bourn is worth 4 years/$48MM, then Gomez is worth some good talent in trade. I'd like to see Melvin try to trade Gomez for some near-MLB-ready position player talent, which is something we're desparately lacking.

 

 

Schafer has 26 MLB at bats. I'm not ready to just hand over the reigns to him just yet.

[JohnBriggs12]

I expect another step forward for Gomez offensively. 25 HR and 85 RBI wouldn't shock me in the least. I think he's a lot more valuable player than his stats even say. His speed is still a game changer too. Last year he beat the D-backs after coming in to pinch run in the 9th. After numerous throws to first, he took off and two errant throws later, he was in with the winning run. By all means I consider him a core player.

[RWeeksFan23]

Lol @ Bourn aiming for $100 million at the start of free agency. He got less than half that.

[monty57]

Lol @ Bourn aiming for $100 million at the start of free agency. He got less than half that.

 

You have to wonder what he would've gotten if teams didn't have to give up a first round pick.

[Dollarbill13]

I'm not sure if I'm ready to give Schafer the job in CF, but I'd be hesitant to commit $48M to Carlos. Not that he wouldn't be worth it if he keeps up his production but he reminds me too much of Bill Hall with the bat. I'd love it if we could swoop in and pick up Brantley to fill the 4th OF role in 2013 and take over as the regular CF in '14

[Outlander]

Not a fan of Brantley offensively or defensively especially as a centerfielder.

[sveumrules]

As long as his OBP stays where it is he isn't going to get this kind of deal even with the power.

 

I'm not so sure. BJ Upton got a big deal this offseason after putting up a sub .300 OBP. Granted he has a history of putting up a higher mark and I'd probably project him around .320 which is like Gomez's 90th percentile projection but still, if Gomez puts up a big year in that 20 HR/40 SB kind of range I don't think he'll have a problem breaking 50 million given his defense and age.

[jerichoholicninja]

Michael Bourn's only skill is he can run fast. As long as he doesn't tank this season Gomez should get more.

[Ennder]

Michael Bourn's only skill is he can run fast. As long as he doesn't tank this season Gomez should get more.

 

 

He is a better defensive CF than Gomez, he carries a better OBP, he is a better baserunner. The only thing that Gomez does better than Bourn is hit for power. To be honest Gomez is an inferior player to Bourn but he is younger and that is a huge huge thing given the limited skillset of these guys.

[ewitkows]

I wouldn't say he's inferior , he just has a different skill set. Both are above avg defensively but Carlos crushes in in SLG (463 v 391) and carries a little better OPS last year (768 v 739). It's really down to a preference of what you want OBP or SLG.

[jerichoholicninja]

I posted this in a previous thread about Bourn:

 

Here are there career numbers.

 

Gomez

.247/.294/.379/.673

79 OPS+

 

Bourn

.272/.339/.365/.704

90 OPS+

 

However when you look at Gomez numbers from just his time in Milwaukee, they're not all that different from Bourn's career except Gomez power makes up for his lack of OBP.

 

Gomez 2010-2012

.248/.296/.415/.711

89 OPS+

 

And if we want to project into the future what kind of contract Gomez will be looking for next year, it will be at least what Bourn gets but probably more along the lines of BJ Upton if Carlos can replicate his 2012 season. Gomez numbers last year were almost identical to Upton's career numbers.

 

Gomez 2012

.260/.305/.463/.768

OPS+ 102

 

Upton Career

255/.336/.422/.758

OPS+ 105