ESPN ranking

[Roderick]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8902178/st-louis-cardinals-lead-keith-law-ranking-all-30-farm-systems-mlb

 

Keith Law has the Brewers as the 29th best farm system.

 

This system has one top-100 prospect and a lot of back-end starters or probable relievers. I didn't love their draft in 2012 despite the extra picks, as they didn't manipulate their money to get any players who fell for signability reasons. They took only one player, second-rounder Tyrone Taylor, who has significant upside to become an above-average or better regular.

[jjfanec]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8902178/st-louis-cardinals-lead-keith-law-ranking-all-30-farm-systems-mlb

 

Keith Law has the Brewers as the 29th best farm system.

 

This system has one top-100 prospect and a lot of back-end starters or probable relievers. I didn't love their draft in 2012 despite the extra picks, as they didn't manipulate their money to get any players who fell for signability reasons. They took only one player, second-rounder Tyrone Taylor, who has significant upside to become an above-average or better regular.

 

Coulter most definitely has upside.

[TooLiveBrew]

Keith Law has the Brewers as the 29th best farm system.

Keith Law has to be one of the worst prospect watchers out there. The system isn't good, but I'd hardly trust his evaluation of it.

[JohnBriggs12]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8902178/st-louis-cardinals-lead-keith-law-ranking-all-30-farm-systems-mlb

 

Keith Law has the Brewers as the 29th best farm system.

 

This system has one top-100 prospect and a lot of back-end starters or probable relievers. I didn't love their draft in 2012 despite the extra picks, as they didn't manipulate their money to get any players who fell for signability reasons. They took only one player, second-rounder Tyrone Taylor, who has significant upside to become an above-average or better regular.

 

Coulter most definitely has upside.

 

So does Victor Roache from everything being said about him. Neither Coulter nor Roache has done anything yet that doesn't justify their draft positions, unless you are predisposed as apparently Law is to downgrade Brewer draft picks.

[trwi7]

I think Keith Law does a pretty good job. He just values high upside potential more than other guys and doesn't place a lot of emphasis on depth.

[narwhalattack]

Except that Coulter and Roache bring significant upsides. To say that Taylor is the only one who has significant upsides seems a little off.

[molitor fan]

Keith Law is an absolute idiot

[ramssuperbowl1999]

I think Keith Law does a pretty good job. He just values high upside potential more than other guys and doesn't place a lot of emphasis on depth.

You get the gold star for getting this right.

 

KLaw places an emphasis on premium prospects, of which the Crew have very few. He devalues depth, which the Brewers have a great deal of. In my opinion, this approach is valuable for a large market team (read: the markets Law is selling) and inappropriate for a small market team like Milwaukee (who Law doesn't care about and would gain tremendous value from a bullpen full of prospects).

 

To each his own. There is no conspiracy here, nor is Law an idiot. Milwaukee has a system lacking in elite prospects but filled with depth.

[reillymcshane]

I don't see a problem with Law's viewpoint. I think it's very valid. A team needs above average players to contend (kind of obvious). You mostly get those players by drafting them (or getting them in trades before they have a chance to make in the bigs). These players are cheap. You control them during a time frame (roughly ages 25-29) where they will produce their best seasons. You even get the chance to extend the very good ones beyond the normal six years of control (such as Braun).

 

It's stupidly obvious in some ways - but if you don't produce above average talent through your minor league system, you will be saddled with - at best - an average team.

 

Depth is great - but it doesn't make you a contender. And it's much more readily available (trade, free agency, minors) than an all star player - who Milwaukee usually has to get via the draft. Sure, the Brewers can occasionally make a trade or sign an all star free agent - but that's the exception to the rule. Our all-star talent has been home grown. Buying all-stars usually means you over pay - both in salary and in years - and you're often buying the years of declining productivity.

 

I don't think Law devalues depth so much as he knows it's critical for a team like Milwaukee to develop it's own all-star caliber players. We have some guys with the ability to be really good - but no one is anything close to a sure thing.

 

I do think 29 is probably too low - but I don't know the other systems, so I can't really say for sure. As for Coulter and Roache - perhaps he simply doesn't believe in either guy yet. Where will Coulter ultimately play? What about Roache's injury? I think those are legitimate concerns - and he might think neither guy will pan out.

[monty57]

It's easy to get hyped up about the Brewers' system when that's all I pay attention to, but then I see all of the rankings coming out, and I get really jealous about other teams' farms.

 

The Brewers have a lot of SP who seem to project to be middle-to-back-of-the-rotation workhorse types. Relative to Brewers' history it seems that we have a stong group of young SP, but unless some guys step it up, we don't have anyone tabbed as a sure-thing, top-of-the-rotation guy. Peralta's our top guy, and most lists seem to think he'll top out as a #2/3, and Thornburg's generally seen as our 2nd best and he still has critics who think he'll end up in the bullpen, and this may be unfair, but he had a really hittable fastball in his MLB stint last year. Jungman has control but not dominant stuff, while Hellweg has stuff but no control. As to position prospects, we're woefully thin at the upper levels, with our top near-MLB-ready guy being Gennet, who probably projects as more of a utility guy than an everyday player. I like the upside of Roache, Coulter and Taylor, but they're still a ways off and still have some question marks to answer.

 

I hope these guys all prove the list-makers wrong, but my hopes have been dashed somewhat by recently reading what other people think of our system. All told, the Brewers still have a long way to go to before they'll have a top-ranked farm system, so whether some guy thinks they're 29th or 21st doesn't really matter as much as the fact that if we rely heavily on our farm to build our future (which smaller markets have to), our future doesn't look as good as I'd like.

 

Reilly put it well in his post above regarding depth vs. top talent. If you've got a lot of talent at the MLB level, depth is great for filling in holes, but when you're doing more than just filling in holes, you need to have some young stars coming out of the system or it'll be hard to build a winning MLB team. One good thing about our depth is that we can probably build an average-but-inexpensive rotation and bullpen from the farm, which will allow us to have some extra money to play with. We also have some good position players locked up at the MLB level, so we do have time to find some answers as to who will replace Ramirez, Weeks, Hart, etc. Hopefully Coulter, Roache and others can be those answers, but the clock's ticking, as we lose Hart, Gomez and maybe Aoki after 2013, Ramirez after 2014 and Weeks and Gallardo after 2015. Even a top-ranked system would be hard-pressed to replace that much talent.

[Roderick]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8922469/national-league-central-top-10-prospects-team-mlb

 

 

Brewers' Top 10

 

Player, POS (Top 100 rank)

1. Wily Peralta, RHP (73)

2. John Hellweg, RHP

3. Jimmy Nelson, RHP

4. Taylor Jungmann, rhp

5. Tyler Thornburg, RHP

6. Tyrone Taylor, OF

7. Clint Coulter, C

8.Mitch Haniger, OF

9. Orlando Arcia, SS

10. Hunter Morris, 1B

 

Milwaukee Brewers

Org rank: 29

 

Farm system overview

 

It's a system without a ton of upside that's also light on guys who might be above-average regulars at any position on the diamond, the result of some mediocre draft classes and the trades they made to stay in contention over the past few years, including the Zack Greinke deal. Their 2012 draft was one of my least favorites because they stuck to MLB's bonus recommendations with most picks instead of moving their money around to roll the dice on a higher-priced player who brought more upside.

 

2013 impact

 

Wily Peralta should be on the big league club most or all of the year, as should Mark Rogers (until his shoulder falls off) and perhaps Tyler Thornburg (as a reliever only, please).

 

Sleeper

 

Their second-round pick from Torrance, Calif., outfielder Tyrone Taylor was also a football standout as a free safety and running back in high school, but made substantial adjustments to his swing during his senior season and was the Brewers' best prospect in short-season ball last year. He can run and throw enough to be an above-average defender in an outfield corner with the potential to hit for average and doubles power.

[igor67]

The write-up also betrays a distinct brand of Law's obnoxiousness. Why is getting creative with slots the only way to get high upside? Roache and Taylor are both higher risk high upside picks. It just didn't happen to conform to his particular brand of obsessive free market & break the bank thinking.

[PrinceFielderx1]

He's going to be dead wrong as soon as the end of this season. The Brewers farm system is going to have at least a couple of player explode. I wouldn't be surprised if we have 2-3 top 100 prospects by seasons end. He probably said Peralta is a back end rotation starter back in the day, and he's likely going to be wrong about that as well. He's going to in shock about our MLB starting rotation about how wrong he was.

[monty57]

I hope you're right PFx1. I'd gotten pretty excited about the Brewers up-and-coming pitchers, but none of the prospect watchers have more than Peralta in their Top 100, and Peralta's usually somewhere in the 60's or 70's. How often do guys at the AA/AAA level who aren't top-rated prospects become really good MLB players? (That's an honest question, as I don't know)

 

We'll certainly pull some MLB players from our system, but I don't think we'll find any Brauns or Fielders, or even guys at the Weeks or Hardy level. It's more likely to be guys of the Mat Gamel/Taylor Green talent level. Given the chance, some of these players will be capable MLB starters, but for the past few years Melvin has been signing or trading for players to keep guys of this talent level off the MLB diamond.

 

We should get a better picture as this season goes on. If Peralta, Rogers, Fiers, etc play well, then the future will look a bit brighter. As it stands now, it looks to me like Melvin's trying to keep the window open a bit longer before things really start to fall apart. A lineup of Gennett, Schafer, Braun, Gamel, Davis, Lucroy, Segura, Green with a rotation of Peralta, Fiers, Jungman, Nelson, Rogers doesn't sound like a World Series team. At least they'll have money to spend... to bad good FAs are getting $25MM a year these days.

[xisxisxis]

I won't get me knickers in a twist until I see where BA ranks the brewers farm system. While BA isn't infallible, their whole reason for existence is MiLB and they have many more experienced talent evaluators in their intern pool than ESPN, yahoo, SI, or any other "professional" sports outlet.

[monty57]

Thanks for that bit of hope xisxisxis. Right now my "kinckers are in a twist." :-)

[pogokat]

David, I see your point...but really, I don't even think that will matter...

 

My thoughts are if Taylor and coulter have big years in rookie ball or single a or if roache explodes, then everyone will be talking about the impact 2012 draft. It is pretty clear that the crew hasn't hit with aloof their recent early picks, but I d think last year was different.

 

Of course, guys they picked last year weren't super high on any of the analysts rankings, so naturally, they still aren't ranked high

[trwi7]

He probably said Peralta is a back end rotation starter back in the day, and he's likely going to be wrong about that as well.

 

You know this is easy to look up. From 2010.

 

Peralta, a strong right-handed starter listed at 6-foot-2, 225 pounds, pitched at 92-96 in a four-inning start for the Brewers' high-A roster, tearing through an underpowered Lynchburg (Cincinnati Reds) lineup. Peralta's best secondary pitch last year was his slider, but on Thursday he showed a better changeup -- one that looks like an 84-86 mph two-seamer with its late tail. He was getting around his slider, flipping it out of his hand instead of snapping it, but it did still have a late downward break, as if it just rolled off the end of a table. His hand travels a long way from glove to release but his arm action is otherwise fine, and he takes an enormous stride toward the plate to maximize his velocity. There's no projection remaining here, so Peralta just needs to refine that slider and keep working on his fastball command (which was pretty good on Thursday) to get to the majors; at worst we're talking about a No. 2-3 starter who carries a 200-inning workload, given that frame and delivery.

 

From 2011

 

Peralta has shot up the prospect lists, earning an honorable mention on Keith Law’s Top 50 Midseason Prospects list (albeit a list which didn’t include some players like Mike Trout due to their presence in the majors at the time) to go with his dominating performance.

 

And he had him ranked the 39th best prospect in baseball in the beginning of 2012.

 

You guys who think Law is just being biased against the Brewers are ridiculous, what he's saying is spot on. There are a lot of mid to back of the rotation starters and maybe a couple of starters on the position player side but there is no monster upside potential superstar like a Braun or a Trout in the system.

[xisxisxis]

You guys who think Law is just being biased against the Brewers are ridiculous, what he's saying is spot on. There are a lot of mid to back of the rotation starters and maybe a couple of starters on the position player side but there is no monster upside potential superstar like a Braun or a Trout in the system.

 

Well no player has ever put together the same rookie campaign as Trout so I can easily say no team in baseball has a trout in their minor leagues right now. Also Braun has already had 1 MVP, was 2nd and is putting up hall of fame numbers. Not many teams have a prospect that projects as Hall of fame so, yeah, the Brewers don't have a Braun, but neither do most of the other teams.

 

I think most of the people take issue with the 29th position and look for things to complain in his analysis. Overall, I wouldn't rank the Brewers system lower than the Giants, Phillies, Tigers, Rockies or White Sox. That would put the Brewers at 24th. I would also rank the Indians below the Brewers because they have a poor reputation for getting average major league talent out of their prospects. In fact the Indians look to be the Brewers of the 90's and until some of their talent sticks and isn't crap, they will get dinged by me. I think there's a lot of similarity in the A's, Brewers, and Braves systems, but I don't think you can argue they are clearly worse than the Brewers. I am fine with a 23rd ranking. Now 23rd is a good 25% from 29th and ain't spot on in my book.

[TooLiveBrew]

You guys who think Law is just being biased against the Brewers are ridiculous, what he's saying is spot on. There are a lot of mid to back of the rotation starters and maybe a couple of starters on the position player side but there is no monster upside potential superstar like a Braun or a Trout in the system.

Fwiw, I don't think Law is being biased against the Brewers. I just don't think very much of his prospect rankings in general.

[nate82]

 

You guys who think Law is just being biased against the Brewers are ridiculous, what he's saying is spot on. There are a lot of mid to back of the rotation starters and maybe a couple of starters on the position player side but there is no monster upside potential superstar like a Braun or a Trout in the system.

 

He is spot on on the void of upper tier talent for the Brewers but I am sorry but the Brewers have a better farm system than he gives them credit for. Ranking the Brewers farm system this low is just rather silly especially when you have the White Sox, Phillies, Yankees, and the Dodgers being far worse than the Brewers.

 

Now the Brewers do not have a top 10 or even a top 15 farm system but they are not the 29th worst. The White Sox are even more void of top tier talent than the Brewers are and even the Dodgers and Phillies are even far worse than the Brewers. I would put the Brewers around the 20-25 range with a huge gap between them and the Phillies, White Sox, Yankees, and the Dodgers.

 

His rank is really far off and I don't get how he could put the Phillies, White Sox, or the Dodgers ahead of the Brewers. I could see the Yankees but not the Dodgers, White Sox or the Phillies.

[HiAndTight]

You guys who think Law is just being biased against the Brewers are ridiculous, what he's saying is spot on. There are a lot of mid to back of the rotation starters and maybe a couple of starters on the position player side but there is no monster upside potential superstar like a Braun or a Trout in the system.

Fwiw, I don't think Law is being biased against the Brewers. I just don't think very much of his prospect rankings in general.

 

That's a much better way of putting it. I don't think many people who follow Law think very highly of him, and even in many of his articles he'll respond and he comes off as petty and ridiculous for engaging people in the comments section.

 

I think he's a very arrogant guy, and I think he's the type of guy who's not going to back off his opinion, even if it's proven wrong.

 

 

And by the way, to those who said that they don't believe there is a Mike Trout, Ryan Braun type prospect out there, I do. Jurickson Profar. A SS with his defensive ability, bat, speed...and excellence at a young level make him a prime candidate to put up a huge 8-10 war season in the future. Doesn't have to be his rookie year for him to be as good of o prospect as Trout.

 

In any event, the point was well taken.

[monty57]

You guys who think Law is just being biased against the Brewers are ridiculous, what he's saying is spot on. There are a lot of mid to back of the rotation starters and maybe a couple of starters on the position player side but there is no monster upside potential superstar like a Braun or a Trout in the system.

 

Well no player has ever put together the same rookie campaign as Trout so I can easily say no team in baseball has a trout in their minor leagues right now. Also Braun has already had 1 MVP, was 2nd and is putting up hall of fame numbers. Not many teams have a prospect that projects as Hall of fame so, yeah, the Brewers don't have a Braun, but neither do most of the other teams.

 

I think most of the people take issue with the 29th position and look for things to complain in his analysis. Overall, I wouldn't rank the Brewers system lower than the Giants, Phillies, Tigers, Rockies or White Sox. That would put the Brewers at 24th. I would also rank the Indians below the Brewers because they have a poor reputation for getting average major league talent out of their prospects. In fact the Indians look to be the Brewers of the 90's and until some of their talent sticks and isn't crap, they will get dinged by me. I think there's a lot of similarity in the A's, Brewers, and Braves systems, but I don't think you can argue they are clearly worse than the Brewers. I am fine with a 23rd ranking. Now 23rd is a good 25% from 29th and ain't spot on in my book.

 

I guess to me it isn't so much about the exact number given, as that's simply one person's opinion of relative values. My bigger concern is whether the Brewers' farm system is set up to keep the Brewers competitive into the future, whether through graduating players to the MLB level or through trading prospects for MLB help. I don't think it is, and with the price of FAs skyrocketing, I worry that teams like the Brewers really need to have better farm systems if they want to remain competitive. We can't just go out and "buy" replacements for Hart, Weeks, Gallardo, Ramirez, etc as their contracts run out over the next couple of seasons.

 

This is all a natural outcome of playing to go "all in" during a period while the "window's open." I just hope we make the playoffs this year, because it appears the window is nearly closed. The Greinke trade helped, I just wish Melvin would have done a little more of that type thinking in the recent past.

[homer]

Regarding Law...see my sig.

[TooLiveBrew]

Your sig illustrates my main problem with Law -- he makes far too many absolute statements about players when criticizing.