Brewers still active; Lohse/Backup MI/backup 1b

[monty57]

Wouldn't he make as much sense as Bobby Crosby

 

Yes. The question is, how much sense does Bobby Crosby make :-)

 

Seriously, I saw the game as well, and wondered what Cantu was doing these days. He's obviously still playing somewhere since he's on Team Mexico. Our current 1B "bar" is set at around a .700 OPS level with Gonzalez, who seems to have the inside track on the temporary starting gig. I really hope Morris or Green get the call over Gonzalez, but if the Brewers don't want them in an everyday role, I would look for anyone who has ever swung a bat and is still breathing before handing the spot to Gonzalez.

 

I understand that Morris is off to a 2-for-16 start to Spring, but that shouldn't be the determinant as to whether or not he gets the temporary 1B job. If Brewer management doesn't trust him over Gonzalez to man 1B, I think we should take him off our "prospect radar."

[TooLiveBrew]

If Brewer management doesn't trust him over Gonzalez to man 1B, I think we should take him off our "prospect radar."

If they decide not to use Morris, it could easily be about not wanting to burn service time.

[trwi7]

Or adding him to the 40 man roster before it's necessary which would result in having to take somebody off the 40 man as well.

[monty57]

If Brewer management doesn't trust him over Gonzalez to man 1B, I think we should take him off our "prospect radar."

If they decide not to use Morris, it could easily be about not wanting to burn service time.

 

I could understand worrying about burning some service time to sit a player on the bench, but this is for the full-time first baseman job in a year in which they are supposed to be "going for it." I could even understand worrying about burning some service time if they had a reasonable (or even semi-reasonable) replacement, but not to give the everyday 1B job to Gonzalez, who couldn't find a job as a starting SS this offseason (and he can still play SS defensively).

 

But the bottom line to me is that Morris isn't that young, and this is a good opportunity to see how he does at the MLB level. While there will always be pressure, his would be limited by the knowledge that no matter what he does, he's the guy until Hart comes back, and then he's going back to AAA. If he does well, he gains confidence. If not, he can go back to AAA and work on what went wrong.

 

Morris is still in the running, so I don't want to sound like the job has been given to anyone. I just think that the decision should be made based on what they think of Morris and Green, and Gonzalez shouldn't even be a consideration. A good case could be made that this is a good opportunity to see what they have in Green, but it seems they've decided that Green is not an everyday MLB player, so it should be Morris' job. If Gonzalez gets the nod, I'd guess Morris will end up like Gamel and Green, where he's kept in the minors to his late 20's and then (because he's in his late 20's and hasn't "proven anything" at the MLB level) will be considered a bench player. If they really have faith in his abilities, they will not block him with a guy who will probably hit for a .700-ish OPS.

[Ennder]

but this is for the full-time first baseman job in a year in which they are supposed to be "going for it."

 

I'm just curious what makes you think this? We have done nothing this offseason to make me think we are "going for it". In fact the offseason suggests just the opposite. They are cautiously optimistic but want to assess the team for the future at the same time. If we were going for it we would have signed a FA pitcher for rotational depth. The team has the players to make a run at the playoffs but at the same time they really need to figure out how much of this pitching is the future and what we need to do long term.

[monty57]

but this is for the full-time first baseman job in a year in which they are supposed to be "going for it."

 

I'm just curious what makes you think this? We have done nothing this offseason to make me think we are "going for it". In fact the offseason suggests just the opposite. They are cautiously optimistic but want to assess the team for the future at the same time. If we were going for it we would have signed a FA pitcher for rotational depth. The team has the players to make a run at the playoffs but at the same time they really need to figure out how much of this pitching is the future and what we need to do long term.

 

Good question. They're not "going for it." They're trying to make it look like they're "going for it." They were truly "going for it" two years ago when they made the Greinke and Marcum trades and didn't trade Fielder. This year, it's more what they didn't do, which is trade Hart and/or Gomez who are/were both tradeable commodities entering the final year of their contracts. My frustration is that they aren't really "going for it," but they won't admit they're not really "going for it," so instead of making a couple of moves which could help their future, they're standing pat to put up what looks to be an effort to keep fans interested as the "window" is nearly closed. That's why I said "supposed to be going for it." I think they're kind of stuck in neutral but slipping quickly into reverse, but they want to make it look like they're still "going for it."

 

However, since we seem to be heading to a point in the not-too-distant future where we will have no shot at the playoffs, we shouldn't throw away the small shot we have this year by naming a backup SS as our starting 1B for 20-30% of the season. I'm always going to look to the future, but since Spring Training's started, I'm trying to look at how this year's team can best compete. I don't think starting Gonzalez at 1B is the best way to make this team competitive. We have better in-house options, so I hope we use them. Morris is a "B level" prospect who is already in his mid-20's, so I hope they don't pass over him because they're worried about using up a month of his service time.

[JohnBriggs12]

What signing guys like Lohse or Dempster is "going for it" and staying away and giving yourself flexibility to add actual quality arms at midseason isn't?

 

Here's how I see it. The Cardinals can't find a reliable SS and they are not unlike the Brewers in that they have a lot of untested arms in the mix. Everyone seems to think the Reds are a juggernaut. I'm not so sure of that, but if they are, then no move like adding Lohse or God forbid Harang is going to make a difference. We'll know by June if the Brewers have a shot at the division. This was a pretty good team once the bullpen issues got solved last year and that was after Greinke left. I'm fairly certain the Brewer brain trust thinks this team, perhaps with a tweak or two prior to the opener, is capable of playing above .500 ball for the first half of the year. If they do that, Melvin will try to add one or two pieces for the 2nd half.

 

The spring so far is so disjointed it's impossible to draw any conclusions. The Brewers haven't had anything close to a full complement playing for them. There are some guys throwing it well though. That's encouraging. For every Henderson who can't get guys out for Canada, there's a Hiram Burgos who's dominating for Puerto Rico.

 

I think Morris needs to start hitting to claim the job. I don't think using up roster time is an issue at all. You worry about that for guys who are sure things and Morris isn't in that class yet. It's still wide open there. They could use a lefty bat in that spot in my opinion. Whether that guy is in their camp now is debatable.

[Ennder]

However, since we seem to be heading to a point in the not-too-distant future where we will have no shot at the playoffs

 

But we aren't heading towards that point at all, this is just your negative nelly attitude at work. We have the entire core of the team locked up for multiple years and a young rotation that is going to enter their prime during that same time frame and since they have done a decent job of keeping the contracts small we have financial flexibility to fill in holes in the next few years. There is no reason to think the team is going to collapse anytime soon.

 

The team doesn't have a clear hole on it right now and they decided not to blow a bunch of cash for depth which may be a bad thing. Considering they signed Gomez to that deal they appear to believe in him and if he produces like he has that is a team friendly deal. That comes down to Hart being the one trade commodity we had and he is the one guy we always hear rumors about so I have to think Melvin just hasn't gotten a good offer. He is slow enough now that he is a below average RF defensively and there is absolutely no market for 1B right now as seen by the FA greeting LaRoche got where basically nobody wanted him. There was absolutely no market for Gomez either once Span and Revere were traded as seen by how Bourn's offseason went. These are the phantom trades you keep talking about that just don't make any sense in the real world.

[Warning Track Power]

That comes down to Hart being the one trade commodity we had and he is the one guy we always hear rumors about so I have to think Melvin just hasn't gotten a good offer. He is slow enough now that he is a below average RF defensively and there is absolutely no market for 1B right now as seen by the FA greeting LaRoche got where basically nobody wanted him.

Combining this with Hunter Morris not hitting this spring, I don't think it is a reach to think Hart may be extended this year yet. If Morris continues his struggles in Triple AAA this year, what's the plan for 1B in 2014? Gamel will be almost two years removed from playing. Hart while always an injury liability, may be the Brewers best option.

 

LaRoche got a 2 year $22 million contract this offseason. Given Hart's want to stay in Milwaukee and relatively soft 1B market, a 2 year $20 million extension may keep Hart in Milwaukee. Although Ramirez' deal (2 years, $30 million, $10m in 2013, $16m in 2014, $14m or $4m buyout in 2015) may make it difficult to afford Hart.

[yoshii8]

I expect to see Hart extended, maybe something like 2 or 3 years for 10 million a year. He seems like he really wants to stay here, and he's been consistently good for the last 3 seasons.

[monty57]

But we aren't heading towards that point at all, this is just your negative nelly attitude at work.

 

Funny, because believe it or not, I'm actually a pretty positive person. A big dose of reality hits me when I look at the system as a whole, including contract obligations. I think we're headed the wrong way. We are nowhere near as talented today as we were going into 2011 (Greinke, Marcum, Fielder, etc). There is not a case that could be made to say we have nearly that much talent on the roster. I've posted this a number of times, but we have loads of money next year tied up in a few players, so I don't see any way of extending Hart (as WTP and Yoshii mentioned) or adding any money to fill any holes. Meanwhile, we have a farm system, including the "young pitchers entering their prime" which is one of the worst in baseball.

 

The optimist in me still sees a light that maybe a bunch of our pitchers defy the skeptics. If Fiers is truly top-of-the-rotation starter after no scout ever gave him a second glace, it would certainly help our chances, but realistically, how often does that happen? We're betting our future on a handful of 30-somethings on eight-figure salaries surrounded by young players who are projected to be utility guys, back-of-the-rotation starters, and middle relievers.

 

I guess optimism/pessimism to the future depends on whether one believes the guys we have locked up will live up to (or exceed) their contracts into their 30's and whether our unheralded pitchers prove the scouts wrong. I think odds are that we're getting less-and-less competitive/talented as the years tick by. The Reds have a much better MLB team and a better farm, the Cardinals have a better MLB team and a much better farm, the Pirates have a similarly talented MLB team and a much, much better farm, and the Cubs are a worse MLB team, but a much, much better farm with a lot of money.

 

We had the best team in the division in 2011, and we made the playoffs. We were less talented in 2012 than 2011, and we're less talented now than we were to start last season (no Greinke or Marcum, no real additions). We will be less talented going into next year than we are now, without Hart and with most of our payroll tied up in eight players.

 

These are the phantom trades you keep talking about that just don't make any sense in the real world.

 

You may be right, but they're the only thing I see that could get us out of our downward spiral and back in the right direction. We have some "tradeable commodities," but they'll gradually lose value and leave via free agency. We can only afford so many mid-to-high-priced players. Extending another to a market value contract just makes it more necessary to have a good farm to fill in the roster. We don't have a good (or even decent) farm. Other than saying "everyone who rates prospects are a bunch of clowns... we really have some huge talent in the minors," how are we going to be better this year than we were two years ago, and how will we be better over the next few years then we are right now?

 

It's baseball, so anything can happen, but "on paper" I don't see it. I want to be proven wrong. Heck, I'd even take just being convinced I'm wrong. I want to believe.

[Warning Track Power]

The optimist in me still sees a light that maybe a bunch of our pitchers defy the skeptics. If Fiers is truly top-of-the-rotation starter after no scout ever gave him a second glace, it would certainly help our chances, but realistically, how often does that happen? We're betting our future on a handful of 30-somethings on eight-figure salaries surrounded by young players who are projected to be utility guys, back-of-the-rotation starters, and middle relievers...

 

It's baseball, so anything can happen, but "on paper" I don't see it. I want to be proven wrong. Heck, I'd even take just being convinced I'm wrong. I want to believe.

I absolutely think this a wait and see team given the unproven nature of the rotation however there are reasons to be optimistic.

1. Core offensive players are signed for the next few seasons (Braun, Lucroy, Weeks, Aoki, Gomez, Segura) providing some cost certainties.

2. The offense should be close to as good in 2013 as none of those core players had an extreme career year. You could argue Gomez but his ouput was offset by Weeks' overall poor season.

3. The bullpen simply should not be anywhere near as bad as they were in 2012.

 

The rotation is the only real question and there are even reasons to be optimistic there.

1. Yo obviously.

2. Estrada has had two solid seasons in a row suggesting he may not be a fluke. His ERA and WHIP in 2012 were similar to Greinke's.

3. Peralta profiles to be an above average pitcher. If he gives us anything close to a 4 ERA & a 1.25-1.35 WHIP in his rookie season and with this offense, he will likely win 10-13 games. Same with Fiers. Even after his atrocious finish he still had a 3.74 ERA & 1.26 WHIP in 2012. If he just hits those numbers again he will be an excellent 3 or 4.

As great as the 2011 team was, the top four pitchers ERAs were all between 3.52-3.83 and WHIPs between 1.16-1.32. These numbers could very easily be replicated by Yo & Estrada. Fiers and Peralta are the keys to 2013.

[TheCrew07]

These are the phantom trades you keep talking about that just don't make any sense in the real world.

 

To you maybe, but somehow other teams like the Rays are consistently able to pickup young pieces that they need through trades.

 

This comes down to 3 things.

 

1) A willingness to recycle roster before it becomes absolutely necessary to do so.

 

2) A willingness to rely on a couple of young players every year to make contributions.

 

3) Timing.

 

I will agree that the kind of trades Monty is suggesting are phantom trades with Melvin as the GM, Melvin always waits to trade a guy until his value is at it's absolute lowest, even with Greinke. However around baseball 1 or 2 of those trades happen every year. Those trades aren't the norm, but they make a ton of sense from an organization building perspective. Then again, we've already been through this 100s of times going back to 2008... just because you refuse to open your mind to the possibilities being suggested doesn't mean those possibilities don't exist. There's no reason to make trades at the trade deadline if you can get better value for the same move prior to the season.

 

The bottom line here is if a particular poster is willing to give up a win in the current season to pickup 7-8 extra in the future. In many cases, like with trading Greinke, you might not have to give up any wins now to be better in the future. Furthermore just because teams don't make the trades doesn't mean the idea is flawed or invalid. 10 years ago who was buying out FA years or putting options on contracts? I'd much rather have a GM who sets trends and is out in front of the market rather than a GM like Melvin who's ultra-conservative and follows the popular trend. For the most part Baseball is the only major sport where teams will willingly part with young/cost controlled talent and I'd rather take advantage of that fact than sit around and whine about about the state of the rotation, farm system, or whatever. Winning consistently is mostly about depth of talent, it's about the strength of your entire organization, not just your MLB team. While we've won here and there, the Brewers haven't consistently been above .500 since the our core positional talent was first together in 2006.

 

I'm not really opposed to trading anyone if the price is right and we're getting equal value. SP > PP > RF... I'm not willing to trade a position player for a freaking reliever ever... or a starting pitcher for a reliever. Under the right circumstances I'll trade a starter for a position player (like with Greinke I wanted the best total package) but in general I'm looking to trade equal or up in value. The most valuable trade pieces we have are productive MLB players whom are replaceable, that's why I would have traded Fielder, Hardy, and Hart all before their final season in a Brewer's uniform. If you aren't winning a WS with them and/or they aren't signed long-term, then what's the point in keeping them if you can fill multiple holes elsewhere in the organization?

[yoshii8]

I'd like to see the Brewers try to get Porcello from the Tigers. I'm not sure how much it would take to get him, but I'd offer Khris Davis and Mark Rogers, although it would probably take more to get him.

[TURBO]

I would NOT trade Khris Davis for Porcello.

 

Davis could be a GREAT hitter for this franchise, just a matter of finding a spot for him.

 

Locking up Gomez the next 3 or 4 years really makes that a tough task though.

[JohnBriggs12]

The key guy for the Brewers is Peralta. If he pitches to close to his talent level, it boosts the entire staff and gives them a great chance to contend. I think Gallardo, Estrada and Narveson will perform to their prior experience. Fiers is a question mark but he can fall off and a guy like Burgos or Thornburg can step right in and likely be more than an adequate replacement. The goal is to stay competitive and in contention into July when more experienced arms will be available.

[splitterpfj]

It depends on the pitcher, but I would absolutely trade Davis for an arm. I think Davis is a much better prospect than any list maker will ever say he is, but he's also blocked in Milwaukee, and the team has other needs.

 

Davis doesn't have a position with the Brewers, and because of that, he won't get enough ABs to truly establish his value at the Major League level. If the Brewers could get a viable prospect at third base, or perhaps a pitcher who becomes a good, dependable bullpen arm for the next few years...why not?

[danzig6767]

These are the phantom trades you keep talking about that just don't make any sense in the real world.

 

 

Under the right circumstances I'll trade a starter for a position player (like with Greinke I wanted the best total package) but in general I'm looking to trade equal or up in value. The most valuable trade pieces we have are productive MLB players whom are replaceable, that's why I would have traded Fielder, Hardy, and Hart all before their final season in a Brewer's uniform. If you aren't winning a WS with them and/or they aren't signed long-term, then what's the point in keeping them if you can fill multiple holes elsewhere in the organization?

 

You and others here seem to be of the belief that Melvin is the owner or that you in your hypothetical GM dream world would also be the owner, not Attanasio.

 

Some act as if the Brewers are run like the Packers with no owner and thus the GM can do absolutely whatever he pleases. That trading important players like Fielder and Greinke are only up to Melvin. I don't buy that at all in observing Attanasio. He certainly doesn't act like Jerry Jones and do a dual owner/GM role where Jones signs off on every move, even small ones, but i've seen nothing to think that Attanasio isn't actively involved with more important decisions.

 

He's clearly a very competitive guy, loves seeing 3 million fans help his bottom line, and he's stated that the team will defer to trying to win now whenever possible. So you may have wanted to trade Prince 2-3 years before he reached free agency, trade Geinke before last season started, and traded Hart whenever you wanted to, but that doesn't mean ownership/Attanasio would agree with you.

 

Besides that, unless you were actually a real GM and talked with other real GM's to get real offers for players you wanted to trade, and then you posted those offers for us to evaluate the merits of pros/cons, it's hard to take your hypotheticals all that seriously. It's easy for random folks on sports forums to say i'd trade player X and Y without any legit and exact knowledge of what you'd really get in return.

[fleehaw]

I would NOT trade Khris Davis for Porcello.

 

 

I would if he and Axford nets the Brewers Castellanos and Porcello. This would give the Brewers their heir apparent to Ramirez at third with a potentially perfect timeframe.

[Ennder]

But again the Rays deals are nothing at like what the Brewers have. The Rays have traded away pitching which is a huge point of depth for them and a need for almost every team. They wait until that pitching is getting expensive to trade it away. The other big trade they made was Crawford who they did not need as they had Upton and Jennings was coming up. The Brewers have not had the type of depth that the Rays or A's have had and the places they have had depth are not places with a lot of need out there. Early this offseason there was need for CF but once the twins traded both of theirs it suddenly was a position that no team actually needed anymore. Same with 1B, it is just a really deep position right now in the majors. I have nothing at all against trading established players but no team in baseball does this without some sort of depth behind it unless it is a pure salary dump like the Marlins last year, that just isn't how baseball works.

 

Even a trade like Boston did last year to dump all that salary was with depth in mind. Bradley made Crawford more expendable, Mauro Gomez is going to be ready by next year for 1B and Beckett was expendable.

[jerichoholicninja]

When did the Rays trade CarlCrawford?

[monty57]

You and others here seem to be of the belief that Melvin is the owner or that you in your hypothetical GM dream world would also be the owner, not Attanasio.

 

It doesn't matter who makes the decision. A decade or so ago, we had a bad MLB roster, but a load of talent in the minors, including two potential Hall-of-Famers and several multiple-time All Stars. We got two playoff appearances, and are now in a position where we have an aging MLB roster with most of the payroll going to a handful of players, that wouldn't really be in playoff talks at all if not for the addition of a second wildcard team which makes almost every team in the league "playoff potential", and one of the worst farms in baseball. Some people are happy for this, because we went 20-some years without a playoff berth, so making the playoffs was worth sacrificing the future. I'm not happy, because the playoffs aren't that big a deal. Most other teams in sports would laugh at a fanbase who was giddy about simply making the playoffs.

 

I don't care to nitpick every move that was made or potentially could have been made. Looking at the whole picture, the Brewer brass did what they did and we are where we are. That's all I'm concerned with. We didn't really win anything, and I see us getting less talented into the future, not more.

 

But again the Rays deals are nothing at like what the Brewers have.

 

Since some people seem to think the Rays play on a different planet, let's forget them for now. Look at the Cardinals. They continue to put good MLB teams out there (including WS champs), and have one of the best farms in baseball. The Reds stole the Cards GM and now seem to be in a position to have a good MLB team for the foreseeable future, with talent locked up and a good farm to continue to supplement the roster. One of these years, the Pirates aren't going to collapse in the second half. Right now, they have a similarly talented MLB roster to the Brewers, but they have a lot of talent getting close to MLB-ready in the minors. Finally, the lowly Cubs are being run efficiently for the first time in 100 years or so. They still have a bit of time before the MLB team gels, but they will, and with the MiLB talent coming through the system and their fat wallet, they will be competitive for the long term.

 

Basically, every team in the NL Central is set up for the future much better than the Brewers. Does it really matter which of the Brewer brass gets blamed, or whether we nitpick the details of each individual move? It's actually probably better if Melvin's the one "going all it," because he's probably retiring soon. If Attanasio is the one continually foregoing the future for the present, we could see the Brewers once again look like they did in the 1990's with a bad MLB team making token moves to look better for the fans, and no talent on the farm.

 

Sure I want the Brewers to win now, but I also want them to win next year and beyond. I don't know when the next time will be that we get a bunch of high draft picks and they all turn into superstars, so I don't want to rely on that as a strategy. That's like a poor person playing the lottery. We "won the lottery" once, and the odds of it happening again are slim. I'd rather look into how teams like the Cardinals and Rays can put good MLB teams on the field, while continuing to maintain top-ranked farm systems. I think it has something to do with not always trying to impress the fans or looking like "a big market player," but instead just doing things that make the most "baseball sense," even if some fans might not like the decision when it's made.

[TheCrew07]

Sure I want the Brewers to win now, but I also want them to win next year and beyond. I don't know when the next time will be that we get a bunch of high draft picks and they all turn into superstars, so I don't want to rely on that as a strategy. That's like a poor person playing the lottery. We "won the lottery" once, and the odds of it happening again are slim. I'd rather look into how teams like the Cardinals and Rays can put good MLB teams on the field, while continuing to maintain top-ranked farm systems. I think it has something to do with not always trying to impress the fans or looking like "a big market player," but instead just doing things that make the most "baseball sense," even if some fans might not like the decision when it's made.

 

Wonderfully put.

[Ennder]

When did the Rays trade CarlCrawford?

 

Oops for some reason I thought they traded him, just makes my point stronger though. The Rays haven't traded much hitting because it has never been a position of depth for them. They trade pitching because they always have a bunch more coming.

[MNBrew]

A decade or so ago, we had a bad MLB roster, but a load of talent in the minors, including two potential Hall-of-Famers and several multiple-time All Stars. We got two playoff appearances, and are now in a position where we have an aging MLB roster with most of the payroll going to a handful of players, that wouldn't really be in playoff talks at all if not for the addition of a second wildcard team which makes almost every team in the league "playoff potential", and one of the worst farms in baseball.

Holy "glass is half-empty"!!! The games still have to be played on the field, not on paper. If the bullpen overhaul is only half-successful, it's still a big improvement on a team that wasn't exactly crap and still wasn't eliminated from the playoffs 'til very late last year. And yeah, there are still rotation questions, mainly along the lines of which Fiers, Peralta, & Narveson (& eventually Rogers) will show up. Anyway, you make some solid points, Monty, but there are 2 that merit rebutting:

 

A. "Aging" is true for most every team with established players in at least some respect, but the "how" is what tells the tale. Braun, Weeks, Hart, & Gallardo are in their prime. So might Aoki be, age-wise, but we don't know yet if last year is part of an upward MLB curve for him or just a one-year wonder. Axford, Gomez, Estrada, & Lucroy are all both established and still improving. Segura is definitely on the young side. Overall, Ramirez is the only regular you might consider "older" but his numbers give NO indication of any decline having begun yet. And there's now Lohse, I suppose, but you can't find much in his numbers the last 2 years that point to him on the decline, either.. . . And you have to figure that within a couple years, Hart, Weeks, & Ramirez likely will all be replaced by younger players. . . . and we'll have the guys to do so, even if we're not sure at this point who they'll all be.

 

B. "Worst farms in baseball" just plain isn't true. That point sounds like the same flawed logic that the farm's still terrible because of what we gave up for Marcum & Greinke, which is a flawed theory because the only guy who has promise AND is still in the minors is Odorizzi, which hardly would cause the Brewers' farm system to be allegedly barren. Even Jon Sickels sees lots of potentially solid MLB contributors in the ranks and doesn't see the cupboard as bare at all. I'd agree with anyone's assertion that we lack true "blue chip," seemingly-sure-fire-future-All-Stars, but that doesn't negate the numerous quality players ascending through the ranks.