Brewers still active; Lohse/Backup MI/backup 1b

[markedman5]

But the 2 good seasons were the last 2.Last year was much better then "not terrible"..maybe he has figured it out ?

 

I don't care one way or the other really but you can't just pretend like the last 2 seasons were luck and he will be terrible again because he used to be......no way to know how he will perform next year.

[Ennder]

I think I've posted this about 4 times in this thread but it needs to be said again. Kyle Lohse is a terrible pitcher. Forget the draft pick. Forget the money. Forget the years. Forget his age. He is a terrible pitcher. He was terrible his whole career and then put up two not terrible seasons in a row. Stay away from him. He is not worth anything to the Brewers at this point.

 

No he is not a terrible pitcher but yeah he is not a great fit for our team/park. He has a career 4.45 ERA and a career 4.45 xFIP so it seems reasonable to assume xFIP tells the real story since it converges faster than ERA does. His xFIP the past 2 years were 4.04 and 3.96. He has improved with age mostly because of his control and ability to keep the ball down and limit the HR but he is likely a true talent of around a 4 ERA. When you add our park and questionable defense he is probably something like a 4.25 ERA guy if we were to sign him. Giving up a good draft pick for a 4.25 ERA guy is a pretty hard sell unless the contract is pretty cheap.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think people are over-valuing draft picks. I understand the reward on hitting on one, but I think you're more likely to hit on a prospect coming back on a potential mid-season trade of a Lohse-type than on that 17th overall pick we'd give up for him.

 

Here are the 16th-18th overall picks from 1999-2008:

 

[pre]Year 16th pick 17th pick 18th pick

1999 Jason Jennings Rick Asadoorian Richard Stahl

2000 Billy Trabor Ben Diggins Miguel Negron

2001 Gabe Gross Kris Honel Dan Denham

2002 Nick Swisher Cole Hamels Royce Ring

2003 Jeff Allison David Murphy Brad Snyder

2004 David Purcey Scott Elbert Josh Fields

2005 Chris Volstad C.J. Henry Cesar Carrillo

2006 Jeremy Jeffress Matt Antonelli Kyle Drabek

2007 Kevin Ahrens Blake Beavan Peter Kozma

2008 Brett Lawrie David Cooper Ike Davis[/pre]

 

Of those 30 players, I'd take 6 years of maybe 9-10 of them (30-33%) over 2 years of Lohse. And that's assuming he doesn't pitch well enough for us to be compensated after two years or to get something back in a trade before then. I understand if you just think he's going suck over the next two years, but otherwise, it wouldn't be the end of the world like some are making it out to be.

 

 

You're right, not a whole lot of great results in the 16-18 pick range. Still, Lohse is a Zero Chance of being a Core Player. The Brewers already have a lack of a Core Player coming up in the Minors in the Scouts opinions. The chances of landing any core player beyond the 1st round have to be ridiculously slim. Over half of Lohse's pitching career are seasons over 4.6ERA. I'll bet $100 right now he has over a 4.6era in 1 of the next 2 seasons. That type of season is a complete waste! Unless he did so pitching over 240innings in 33starts but likely its over 180innings meaning not only did he suck but he didn't eat up innings as a starter which is "THEE ONLY REASON" to consider Lohse on Milwaukee! That is the only exceptable reason to me to consider Lohse and that's because we're looking at having a staff that aside from Gallardo, who can pitch over 180innings? Maybe there's 2 in Estrada/Fiers No one else I see doing so. Narveson coming off injury just feel he's going to be protected in pitches per start through the first half of the year. Peralta is too wild to run up pitch counts where 100 pitches get him in to 7innings but rather only 5. Rogers/Thornburg I just feel they wont accumulate enough starts. So Lohse in innings eating regard makes sense from every single outsider perspective. The team though signed Gorzelanny who with the excess in SPs already can serve as a Starter from time to time when needed. Then like Fiers last year, what about any AAA guy say like Burgos, who shows at that level he can be used for starts?

The staff isn't what you hope for, but there's more than enough Pitchers floating around to eat up extra innings during a stretch where Starters don't go 5/6innings.

So signing Lohse for innings purposes only while losing out on hmm what? a 20% chance of a "Core" Player via draft the team so desperately needs? It is just ********! Honestly. It's something different if the club had future "Core" players coming up in the works and 2years of Lohse keeps the team better competitive for Playoff run. As a whole, this team will either flourish, be mid ground or tank. Lohse signing keeps us from tanking but while we give up a 16th pick this year a mid ground-flourish year means we likely have a 20s pick in the draft i.e. slim pickings at a core player next draft! Say we tank but have a pick and then with a top 10 pick(Protected) we hit on both picks and sign a Free Agent 2014 with more value than Lohse has at no cost. Suddenly, the team's future is bright and we're competitive for years to come.

Lohse/no pick/a 20s pick 2014 with no real return equals complete failure for what? 7years? That's how I see what a Lohse signing for the Brewers turning out. Scrap out years 2015-2022 all because of one aging, signing of Lohse.

 

I like the fact that this team can flourish or fail and I wouldn't be upset if they failed this year trying out a bunch of their young players. Can I also say that, how awful,bad,sad would it be that a terrible Lohse signing with a Owners/Players Union looking over the QO to draft pick compensation rule, changes it/scraps it for 2014 and beyond.....and the Brewers will end up being always tied then as the worst deal that was the 1year QO/Compensation debacle of an idea.....Yeah no Please!

[JohnBriggs12]

Lohse has never posted an ERA under 4 anywhere but St. Louis. He was basically your run of the mill 5th starter type until he got there. Teams are rightfully suspicious especially for a 34 year old.

[brewtank34]

Vladimir Guerrero is attempting comeback. Would love to see him on our bench.

[brewcrewdue80]

Vladimir Guerrero is attempting comeback. Would love to see him on our bench.

 

I read that too and first thought was...hmm wonder what he's done lately and could the Brewers use him? One of my favorite hitters all-time with his ability to hit out of the zone.

[brwrsfan]

Sounds like Vlad is just looking for a minor league deal. I'm not sure if he still has it or not, but he could potentially be a backup OF with pop. Someone will bring him in for a minor league deal I'd assume.

[nate82]

Vladimir Guerrero is attempting comeback. Would love to see him on our bench.

I wanted Vlad last year to be the backup 1B. Vlad Green platoon wouldn't be all that bad until Hart got back.

[Invader3K]

Vlad might be worth a minor league deal at this point, if nothing else.

[DocLuna7]

I think the most likely destination for Lohse at this point is the Cards on a 1-yr. deal. All this "linking" to the Brewers smells like bull poopy to me.

 

Unless it's just a negotiating strategy, the Cardinals seem like they are really insistent on not bringing Lohse back. It reenforces my belief that not only was he a bit of a fluke the last two years there but that perhaps they know something that other teams do not. I would stay far, far away if I was DM.

[Ennder]

The Cardinals don't want him back because they have 5 of the best minor league pitchers in baseball and they are all ready to hit in the next few years.

[endaround]

I think the most likely destination for Lohse at this point is the Cards on a 1-yr. deal. All this "linking" to the Brewers smells like bull poopy to me.

 

Unless it's just a negotiating strategy, the Cardinals seem like they are really insistent on not bringing Lohse back. It reenforces my belief that not only was he a bit of a fluke the last two years there but that perhaps they know something that other teams do not. I would stay far, far away if I was DM.

 

The Cards were all set to bring him back in a short term deal until Lohse started saying how they ruined his life by offering him arbitration.

[TURBO]

Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that the Rangers and Kyle Lohse's agent, Scott Boras, "have remained in contact."

 

Wilson also writes that "there are some within the Rangers’ organization who want (Lohse) on the roster," but the "biggest divide" is in having to surrender their first-round pick. Lohse's asking price has "reached the point where teams are rethinking their stance," according to Wilson. If the righty's demands have indeed dropped significantly, it seems likely that a number of clubs would revisit the idea of signing him.

 

Related: Rangers

Source: Fort Worth Star-Telegram

[TURBO]

...and with the above news, I continue to hope that the Brewers are not one of "those" teams...

 

The news of Kyle Lohse in a Brewers uniform for 2013 and beyond would devastate my outlook on this team, and baseball in general.

[RockCoCougars]

I think the most likely destination for Lohse at this point is the Cards on a 1-yr. deal. All this "linking" to the Brewers smells like bull poopy to me.

 

Unless it's just a negotiating strategy, the Cardinals seem like they are really insistent on not bringing Lohse back. It reenforces my belief that not only was he a bit of a fluke the last two years there but that perhaps they know something that other teams do not. I would stay far, far away if I was DM.

 

The Cards were all set to bring him back in a short term deal until Lohse started saying how they ruined his life by offering him arbitration.

 

He 'ruined' himself with his greed/listening to Boras. He knew the rules, and turned down the easy eight figures thinking that he could do much better. I'd be lying if I said that I wouldn't be happy if he was forced to take a one year deal for far less than the qualifying offer.

 

As for the Rangers, if they wouldn't surrender any decent prospects for Greinke, I highly doubt that they will surrender a first rounder to sign Lohse.

[jjkoestler]

At what point can Lohse sign with a club without the aforementioned club having to surrender a draft pick?

[trwi7]

After the draft.

[Kelbysdaddy]

I think people are over-valuing draft picks. I understand the reward on hitting on one, but I think you're more likely to hit on a prospect coming back on a potential mid-season trade of a Lohse-type than on that 17th overall pick we'd give up for him.

 

Here are the 16th-18th overall picks from 1999-2008:

 

[pre]Year 16th pick 17th pick 18th pick

1999 Jason Jennings Rick Asadoorian Richard Stahl

2000 Billy Trabor Ben Diggins Miguel Negron

2001 Gabe Gross Kris Honel Dan Denham

2002 Nick Swisher Cole Hamels Royce Ring

2003 Jeff Allison David Murphy Brad Snyder

2004 David Purcey Scott Elbert Josh Fields

2005 Chris Volstad C.J. Henry Cesar Carrillo

2006 Jeremy Jeffress Matt Antonelli Kyle Drabek

2007 Kevin Ahrens Blake Beavan Peter Kozma

2008 Brett Lawrie David Cooper Ike Davis[/pre]

 

Of those 30 players, I'd take 6 years of maybe 9-10 of them (30-33%) over 2 years of Lohse. And that's assuming he doesn't pitch well enough for us to be compensated after two years or to get something back in a trade before then. I understand if you just think he's going suck over the next two years, but otherwise, it wouldn't be the end of the world like some are making it out to be.

to take this kind of sample is laughable. during that same time span, how many players drafted after 18th have made a huge impact?

[endaround]

Very few. Very few players in general make a large impact. The expected value of a middle 1st round pick is like 1.0 WAR per year. That is a bench player. Yes the variance is very high, with some going on to be regulars and the vast majority not having any career.

[DR28]

Sounds like the Brewers might be after Harang...

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/03/brewers-orioles-eyeing-harang.html

 

I would assume Doug is looking at Aaron for the #5 spot?

 

Locks

Gallardo

Estrada

Fiers

 

Fighting for #4,#5 spots

Peralta

Narveson

Rogers

Harang

[craigharmann]

If it's between Lohse or the Harang-utang, I'll go with Harang.

[trwi7]

Stay away from Harang as well. I doubt he's better than what we get from any of our young starters.

[craigharmann]

Stay away from Harang as well. I doubt he's better than what we get from any of our young starters.

 

I'm with ya there. But, if the choice was Lohse or Harang, all things considered, Harang away.

[JohnBriggs12]

I was watching a few minutes of Team Mexico vs. the Diamondbacks last night. In Mexico's lineup was former major leaguer Jorge Cantu.

 

Now Cantu is still only 31. Now he was bad when last seen in the majors, but this is a guy that has put up some power numbers in the big leagues and plays 1B. Wouldn't he make as much sense as Bobby Crosby for a look see this spring?

[Ennder]

Well if they cost the same I'd take Lohse every day over Harang and it isn't even remotely close. Harang is more or less useless outside of a complete pitchers park which can hold his flyballs in. He is Lohse without the good control. But Lohse will take a pick and a big contract so I hope they don't do it.