Brewers still active; Lohse/Backup MI/backup 1b

[MVP2110]

the question is if the upgrade from Rogers/Narveson to him is worth the contract and loss of a draft pick.

 

And losing the pick is doubly painful, as we lose it to the Cardinals. So it knocks our draft down a bit, but also boosts our rivals.

 

This really isn't true. The Cardinals get a sandwhich pick regardless of who he signs with. Assuming he signs by the draft

[TooLiveBrew]

The amount of people willing to lose a first round pick for Kyle Lohse's age 34+ seasons is both shocking & disturbing. Beyond the fact that he's simply pitched over his head the past two seasons, he's a flyball finesse pitcher who'd be going from a very favorable home park to the HR launching pad of Miller Park. This would be an awful signing, especially when you factor in the money.

[saget]

The amount of people willing to lose a first round pick for Kyle Lohse's age 34+ seasons is both shocking & disturbing. Beyond the fact that he's simply pitched over his head the past two seasons, he's a flyball finesse pitcher who'd be going from a very favorable home park to the HR launching pad of Miller Park. This would be an awful signing, especially when you factor in the money.

 

I thought we all collectively took the "Never Again" vow after Suppan left town. Lohse would be a direct violation of that oath.

[monty57]

I thought we all collectively took the "Never Again" vow after Suppan left town. Lohse would be a direct violation of that oath.

 

Yes, but every spring, the phrase "Hope springs eternal" pops up. When emotion and not logic is used to make decisions, bad things can happen. Somewhere, somehow, someone will think that Lohse is "that last piece" to a World Series run. Things like age regressions, budgets, and draft picks will be forgotten, Lohse will get a multi-year deal and the Cardinals will get a draft pick. In a year or two, fans with high expectations and short memories will be left wondering why they have to pay for a washed-up Lohse, and will wonder why their farm is weak.

[Spidey]

No one seems to think there's a possibility that, assuming his demands drop to a decent contract over 1 or 2 years, that he pitches well enough in that time to offer him a qualifying offer and get a pick back after his time here.

 

If no team has signed him by now with the 1st round pick attached as a 34 year old, I highly doubt that any team will sign him on with a pick attached as a 35 or 36 year old, even if the price drops.

 

The amount of people willing to lose a first round pick for Kyle Lohse's age 34+ seasons is both shocking & disturbing.

 

While I agree with your sentiment, I believe the only opinions we should really be worried about are Doug's and Mark's.

[TooLiveBrew]

The amount of people willing to lose a first round pick for Kyle Lohse's age 34+ seasons is both shocking & disturbing.

 

While I agree with your sentiment, I believe the only opinions we should really be worried about are Doug's and Mark's.

Very true.

 

Mark, step away from the sharp object. Doug -- Doug, stop him.

[docduany]

I know polls have been deemed to be the devil after they got out of hand. But I think it would be interesting for the mods to open a poll about Lohse. Something along the lines of " On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the highest. How angry would you be if the Brewers sign Kyle Lohse to a contract." I personally would have to be around a 8 to a 9. I think Lohse is a pretty bad MLB pitcher. He's getting old and the Crew needs great drafts for continued success. Giving up 1st round draft picks isn't going to help the farm. Not to mention I like all of our house options more than Lohse.

[pogokat]

If the Brewers just want old pitchers that will probably fall apart on us, why don't they just get capuano and harang from the dodgers for free? Chris Young just signed a minor league deal with the nats!

 

the Brewers have played this whole off season wisely---they have a plan and they are sticking with it---to blow it at the last second would really suck

[young guns]

Something along the lines of " On a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the highest.

 

My poll would go to 11, cause thats how angry I would be.

[Warning Track Power]

Every day I come to BF and expect to read "Lohse and Brewers have come to terms on a 3 year contract worth $24ish million."

[MNBrew]

Every day I come to BF and expect to read "Lohse and Brewers have come to terms on a 3 year contract worth $24ish million."

Well, if he stays unsigned long enough, there's a good chance you WILL see it because there's always someone's attempt at a clever April Fools Day thread.

[jmeks23]

How soon does the draft pick compensation go away? Once the 2013 season starts? Or after it ends?

 

If you don't lose a pick if you sign him after the start of the season, I could see that happening in the Brewers case. Giving up on that pick is too big of a pill to swallow though.

[nate82]

How soon does the draft pick compensation go away? Once the 2013 season starts? Or after it ends?

 

The day after this years draft is when the compensation goes away.

[Ennder]

The amount of people willing to lose a first round pick for Kyle Lohse's age 34+ seasons is both shocking & disturbing. Beyond the fact that he's simply pitched over his head the past two seasons, he's a flyball finesse pitcher who'd be going from a very favorable home park to the HR launching pad of Miller Park. This would be an awful signing, especially when you factor in the money.

 

I thought we all collectively took the "Never Again" vow after Suppan left town. Lohse would be a direct violation of that oath.

 

 

Yep if Wainwright doesn't sign an extension next year and offers to come to the Brewers for $1M a year I'd tell him to take a walk because we signed a couple STL pitchers and they didn't live up to the contract. Lohse is a much better pitcher than Suppan or Looper. I don't love the idea of signing him but lets not be silly about this. For the most part those pitchers did exactly what people with a statistical background thought they would do moving from a pitchers park with an elite defense to a hitters park with a bad defense, this isn't rocket science here. We know what Lohse is likely to do with the Brewers and that is being a roughly league average pitcher by ERA or slightly worse than league average. As long as they approach a deal from that angle it is fine. What that means is with the draft pick they have to sign him for an undervalued contract to make it worth it.

[rwa12]

Buster Olney was on STL sports radio yesterday at lunchtime. They were talking about Lohse, his opinion was that he would end up in Milwaukee on a 2 year contract, maybe $16 million. The AL won't touch him, and no one wants to give up a pick for a guy whose peripherals were not great.

[Invader3K]

So why should the Brewers give up a pick for him, even if it's "only" a two year deal? Makes no sense to me and sounds like more Scott Boras driven "reporting" to me.

[brewerfan82]

I think people are over-valuing draft picks. I understand the reward on hitting on one, but I think you're more likely to hit on a prospect coming back on a potential mid-season trade of a Lohse-type than on that 17th overall pick we'd give up for him.

 

Here are the 16th-18th overall picks from 1999-2008:

 

[pre]Year 16th pick 17th pick 18th pick

1999 Jason Jennings Rick Asadoorian Richard Stahl

2000 Billy Trabor Ben Diggins Miguel Negron

2001 Gabe Gross Kris Honel Dan Denham

2002 Nick Swisher Cole Hamels Royce Ring

2003 Jeff Allison David Murphy Brad Snyder

2004 David Purcey Scott Elbert Josh Fields

2005 Chris Volstad C.J. Henry Cesar Carrillo

2006 Jeremy Jeffress Matt Antonelli Kyle Drabek

2007 Kevin Ahrens Blake Beavan Peter Kozma

2008 Brett Lawrie David Cooper Ike Davis[/pre]

 

Of those 30 players, I'd take 6 years of maybe 9-10 of them (30-33%) over 2 years of Lohse. And that's assuming he doesn't pitch well enough for us to be compensated after two years or to get something back in a trade before then. I understand if you just think he's going suck over the next two years, but otherwise, it wouldn't be the end of the world like some are making it out to be.

[brwrsfan]

I think if we could be assured that his next two years would be like his last two years, people would probably be all for it. The problem is nobody believes that. His previous years were average at best, and while his overall numbers from the last two years look good on paper, his peripheral numbers seem to contradict that, which makes many people here believe that he was more or less lucky the last two years and is in line for a big time return to his career norms or worse. He's also going from a relatively pitcher friendly park with a pretty good defense behind him, to a hitters park with a poor to average defense (and he's a flyball pitcher to boot).

 

Throw in the fact that he's 34 already and the fact that we'd have to give up our pick for him and that is enough for most of us to just say no. Could he pitch great for us and duplicate his last two years? Sure, he could. But the numbers seem to suggest otherwise and for the cost, length of contract and draft pick loss, it just doesn't seem to make much sense.

[trwi7]

I think people are over-valuing draft picks. I understand the reward on hitting on one, but I think you're more likely to hit on a prospect coming back on a potential mid-season trade of a Lohse-type than on that 17th overall pick we'd give up for him.

 

Here are the 16th-18th overall picks from 1999-2008:

 

[pre]Year 16th pick 17th pick 18th pick

1999 Jason Jennings Rick Asadoorian Richard Stahl

2000 Billy Trabor Ben Diggins Miguel Negron

2001 Gabe Gross Kris Honel Dan Denham

2002 Nick Swisher Cole Hamels Royce Ring

2003 Jeff Allison David Murphy Brad Snyder

2004 David Purcey Scott Elbert Josh Fields

2005 Chris Volstad C.J. Henry Cesar Carrillo

2006 Jeremy Jeffress Matt Antonelli Kyle Drabek

2007 Kevin Ahrens Blake Beavan Peter Kozma

2008 Brett Lawrie David Cooper Ike Davis[/pre]

 

Of those 30 players, I'd take 6 years of maybe 9-10 of them (30-33%) over 2 years of Lohse. And that's assuming he doesn't pitch well enough for us to be compensated after two years or to get something back in a trade before then. I understand if you just think he's going suck over the next two years, but otherwise, it wouldn't be the end of the world like some are making it out to be.

 

Why are you only using the 16-18 picks? Were the players from 19-the rest of the draft somehow unavailable there? I'll take my chances on getting a Swisher or a Hamels or a Lawrie over signing a 34 year old Kyle Lohse for two years when we have multiple younger options who could be much better than him.

[TURBO]

Kyle Lohse -Feb 28, 12:58PM

 

According to ESPN's Buster Olney, the agent (Scott Boras) for right-hander Kyle Lohse called the Yankees and they were not interested in making an offer. Olney also says the Indians are not interested because their budget is stretched too thin. The Brewers might be the best bet for Lohse at this point, though they haven't made any kind of formal proposal. The Rangers have also been loosely linked.

[brewerfan82]

Why are you only using the 16-18 picks? Were the players from 19-the rest of the draft somehow unavailable there? I'll take my chances on getting a Swisher or a Hamels or a Lawrie over signing a 34 year old Kyle Lohse for two years when we have multiple younger options who could be much better than him.

 

I figured those were the most relevant to the pick we'd be losing. Be my guest in looking up the other 12,000 or so players drafted in those years and picking out which ones you'd rather have over Lohse, but I suspect the hit rate decreases greatly from the 30-33% I found narrowing the search to comparable picks.

 

If you're more confident in all our younger options than Lohse, then it's obviously a waste to sign him, draft pick or not. But between feeling fairly confident in Lohse having at least an "okay" season and the likelihood that one or more of our young pitchers won't turn in a successful 2013 campaign, I'm okay with a Lohse acquisition to solidify the rotation a bit. I don't know that it would be the "right" move, I just don't think it'd be the disaster people are making it out to be. Now if they sign him for 4 years at $40+ mil... *vomit soup*

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the most likely destination for Lohse at this point is the Cards on a 1-yr. deal. All this "linking" to the Brewers smells like bull poopy to me.

[splitterpfj]

I'm wondering why Pittsburgh hasn't gotten involved. They wouldn't have to give up their pick, and they've been "almost" the last couple of years, maybe Lohse would help.

 

It makes me think Boras is still holding out for a multi-year deal, I think if he'd accept a one-year, with a guarantee from the team that they wouldn't make a qualifying offer after the season, some of these other teams would call back.

[monty57]

Why are you only using the 16-18 picks? Were the players from 19-the rest of the draft somehow unavailable there? I'll take my chances on getting a Swisher or a Hamels or a Lawrie over signing a 34 year old Kyle Lohse for two years when we have multiple younger options who could be much better than him.

 

I figured those were the most relevant to the pick we'd be losing. Be my guest in looking up the other 12,000 or so players drafted in those years and picking out which ones you'd rather have over Lohse, but I suspect the hit rate decreases greatly from the 30-33% I found narrowing the search to comparable picks.

 

If you're more confident in all our younger options than Lohse, then it's obviously a waste to sign him, draft pick or not. But between feeling fairly confident in Lohse having at least an "okay" season and the likelihood that one or more of our young pitchers won't turn in a successful 2013 campaign, I'm okay with a Lohse acquisition to solidify the rotation a bit. I don't know that it would be the "right" move, I just don't think it'd be the disaster people are making it out to be. Now if they sign him for 4 years at $40+ mil... *vomit soup*

 

Question #1 is whether the draft pick we'd give up would be worth more than Lohse. Your quick analysis leads you to believe that there is about a 33% chance that we would lose more from the pick than we'd gain from Lohse. In some cases (like Hamels), we would lose substantially more.

 

Question #2 is whether Lohse will be better than the guy he's replacing for both this year and next year. As others have pointed out, while he's had good years the past two years, there is some belief that he got a little "lucky," and even if you don't believe that, he would certainly be moving from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park, and his flyball tendencies may not play well at Miller Park. This year, we're already looking at six pitchers for the rotation, so his addition would mean that two of Fiers, Rogers, Narveson and Peralta would start the year out of the rotation. Next year, we will have a whole bunch more guys who will be ready to step into the MLB rotation. Many of these guys project to be around middle-of-the-rotation types, which is probably what we should expect out of Lohse.

 

Question #3 is how much we'd have to spend, and could that be put to better use.

 

All in all, I think you'd be giving up more than you're getting from Lohse. I agree it wouldn't be a "disaster," but the Brewers need to exercise caution in the free agent market. Spending 10% or so of your payroll over multiple seasons while giving up a middle-of-the-first-round pick for a guy who may not be a better option than what you already have would not be exercising caution.

[jerichoholicninja]

I think I've posted this about 4 times in this thread but it needs to be said again. Kyle Lohse is a terrible pitcher. Forget the draft pick. Forget the money. Forget the years. Forget his age. He is a terrible pitcher. He was terrible his whole career and then put up two not terrible seasons in a row. Stay away from him. He is not worth anything to the Brewers at this point.