Marcum to the Mets

[Raw Biz]

Lawrie may turn out to be an All-Star yet, but without Marcum this team may well have not made the NLCS in 2011. There are always trade offs, but I wouldn't give up those memories for anything.

 

Exactly. There's probably a 90% chance the Brewers don't make the playoffs without Marcum. Not only did he pitch great for basically 5 months but the Greinke trade probably doesn't happen without him either. Hindsight is always 20/20.

[jjfanec]

Lawrie may turn out to be an All-Star yet, but without Marcum this team may well have not made the NLCS in 2011. There are always trade offs, but I wouldn't give up those memories for anything.

 

Exactly. My only question with the trade is did we get the best pitcher back we possibly could have received. Outside of that I am fine trading Lawrie. There was a thread in the minor league forum that look at how many top prospects from 2006 busted, There are zero guarantees with anything. No idea what Lawrie will show up going forward, but we do know Marcum was a huge reason we almost made a world series which was a great ride!

[502 to Right]

Just announced 1 year at $4 million (with a possible $2 million in incentives). That's pretty low dollars for someone with his upside. I imagine his medicals are really sketchy. This had to be why Melvin had no interest.

[JohnBriggs12]

Lawrie may turn out to be an All-Star yet, but without Marcum this team may well have not made the NLCS in 2011. There are always trade offs, but I wouldn't give up those memories for anything.

 

Exactly. There's probably a 90% chance the Brewers don't make the playoffs without Marcum. Not only did he pitch great for basically 5 months but the Greinke trade probably doesn't happen without him either. Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

That's impossible to know. Had they not made that trade, they likely would have signed a FA. Without knowing just who that might of been all this is just speculation. Personally, once the Greinke deal went down, I would have liked a do over on the Marcum deal. As well as he pitched, the Brewers were 16-17 in the games Marcum started. That's a .485 winning percentage on a team that won at a .593 clip.

[Raw Biz]

Lawrie may turn out to be an All-Star yet, but without Marcum this team may well have not made the NLCS in 2011. There are always trade offs, but I wouldn't give up those memories for anything.

 

Exactly. There's probably a 90% chance the Brewers don't make the playoffs without Marcum. Not only did he pitch great for basically 5 months but the Greinke trade probably doesn't happen without him either. Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

That's impossible to know. Had they not made that trade, they likely would have signed a FA. Without knowing just who that might of been all this is just speculation. Personally, once the Greinke deal went down, I would have liked a do over on the Marcum deal. As well as he pitched, the Brewers were 16-17 in the games Marcum started. That's a .485 winning percentage on a team that won at a .593 clip.

 

Obviously it's impossible to know but what pitcher do you think they would have signed? The Brewers have always had terrible luck when it comes to signing FA pitchers so I don't see how that team makes the playoffs with one FA pitcher and no Greinke/Marcum. You can't just say you want a do-over after the Greinke trade because the Greinke trade doesn't happen without it. Looking back, sure I probably would have wanted more for Lawrie or to just do the Greinke trade and not the Marcum one. But like I said, no Marcum most likely meant no Greinke.

 

Also, using a team's winning percentage in games that a certain pitcher starts is pointless, especially when the pitcher actually pitches well. The Brewers had a winning record when Braden Looper pitched and he was terrible.

[TooLiveBrew]

Lawrie may turn out to be an All-Star yet, but without Marcum this team may well have not made the NLCS in 2011. There are always trade offs, but I wouldn't give up those memories for anything.

 

Exactly. My only question with the trade is did we get the best pitcher back we possibly could have received. Outside of that I am fine trading Lawrie. There was a thread in the minor league forum that look at how many top prospects from 2006 busted, There are zero guarantees with anything. No idea what Lawrie will show up going forward, but we do know Marcum was a huge reason we almost made a world series which was a great ride!

Yay! We got to try out being a real club for one season!

 

Obviously I was never a fan of the Marcum-Lawrie trade. I'm also not a fan of the 'go for it once every five seasons' team-building approach. It would be nice to see the Brewers develop a long-term plan, but it's just not happening under Melvin. I'm sure it's not going to be too well-received, but I would gladly trade making one LCS for a better long-term approach. Imo what Melvin's legacy is going to be once he's gone is that he wasted Ryan Braun's prime/career.

[logan82]

Never liked the Marcum trade. I was indifferent at best. I didn't much care for the Greinke deal either. We are further behind as a ballclub now than were were then. Whatever we would have got back in trade for Fielder would have made us better.

[jjfanec]

Lawrie may turn out to be an All-Star yet, but without Marcum this team may well have not made the NLCS in 2011. There are always trade offs, but I wouldn't give up those memories for anything.

 

Exactly. My only question with the trade is did we get the best pitcher back we possibly could have received. Outside of that I am fine trading Lawrie. There was a thread in the minor league forum that look at how many top prospects from 2006 busted, There are zero guarantees with anything. No idea what Lawrie will show up going forward, but we do know Marcum was a huge reason we almost made a world series which was a great ride!

Yay! We got to try out being a real club for one season!

 

Obviously I was never a fan of the Marcum-Lawrie trade. I'm also not a fan of the 'go for it once every five seasons' team-building approach. It would be nice to see the Brewers develop a long-term plan, but it's just not happening under Melvin. I'm sure it's not going to be too well-received, but I would gladly trade making one LCS for a better long-term approach. Imo what Melvin's legacy is going to be once he's gone is that he wasted Ryan Braun's prime/career.

 

And so far how would have Lawrie would have helped Braun's career? It simplistic to say this team went for broke once every five seasons. They made it in 2008 (with a trade that still looks good in my mind), and they made it in 2011. Last year easily could have been another playoff year but the bullpen fell apart. This is a team that in the last 5 years has made the playoffs twice, been in solid contention another time, and was right about .500 one other season. Next year could be rough with our starting pitching. I just dont feel like the future was mortgaged like you seem to think it was.

[RockCoCougars]

I think the handwringing around here about trading Lawrie is a bit over the top at times. I say that even though I feel that the Brewers likely would have made it just as far in '11 without Marcum. Obviously, it's going to go down as a bad deal on paper, but I'm not going to fault the Brewers much in hindsight for making a bold move to go for it. I don't remember a lot of people complaining about giving up Kevin Bass (and two decent pitching prospects) for roughly two years of Don Sutton back in the day, and Bass had a pretty good career for the Astros.

[brewcrewdue80]

The Marcum trade has had a significant impact on the team. Lawrie could be a stud at 3b. Now the team not only doesn't have Marcum or any compensation, but they have a 10mil+ aging 3b in Ramirez. Who's contract will be expired before Lawrie even reaches FA. That's where all hate comes from. Of course when Fielder left that opened up the 10+mil to spend on Ramirez but had Fielder signed to 20mil/yr now what kind of mess do we have at 3b? and Marcum gone! Marcum's deal made for an entire change of how the team runs the next 5years. Lawrie equaled Marcum in WAR just last season as Marcums only 2 in Milw. His First full season as a player! The team should have gotten another Prospect with Marcum to potentially compensate the 2years vs 7years of service or more Lawrie gives Toronto. It's the Heads up trade that is lousy. Brett Cecil would have been the best realistic option heads up for Lawrie as the service time would only be 2years off, Cecil was coming off a 28Start 170+IP 2.0 War season. The club took on a higher paid player, older for less team control vs. a younger, needed 3b with talent and lots of team control. Cecil at least wouldn't have affected payroll. And yes, he was less of a player Marcum was in 2011/12 but looking at 2010 it wouldn't have been easy to see that happening at that time.

 

The good of getting Marcum is that his weak arm and end result I can see leading to the team looking for/have been stocking FireBallers. 90MPH pitchers who lose anything on velocity become BP for hitters. 94MPH pitchers who lose velocity become 89MPH pitchers as Marcum was. It's a young ownership who I think have been establishing a strong fan base by reaching the Playoffs. Now a few seasons of middle of the pack teams shouldn't turn away the fans. The club can go patient and make smart moves moving forward. (I'm hoping)

Anyway, I'm glad Marcum signed with another team. Even with 4mil-6mil cost. At his best for Milw he was a 3WAR. I expect him to become a 1WAR guy over the next 5years at best. All the young pitchers we have can achieve or exceed that, they just need to be given the opportunity.

[TooLiveBrew]

And so far how would have Lawrie would have helped Braun's career?

He was (& still is) regarded very highly by MLB talent evaluators, and could have returned a good young pitcher who'd be with the Brewers through at least 2014-'16.

[Ennder]

Imo what Melvin's legacy is going to be once he's gone is that he wasted Ryan Braun's prime/career.

 

Only if you decide it is this in your mind. Right now his legacy is turning around probably the worst franchise in baseball and handing it the 2nd most successful stretch it has ever had under the Brewers name.

[endaround]

And so far how would have Lawrie would have helped Braun's career?

He was (& still is) regarded very highly by MLB talent evaluators, and could have returned a good young pitcher who'd be with the Brewers through at least 2014-'16.

 

Based on what? The Jays were the only team willing to trade a pitcher without getting pitching in return.

[trwi7]

Based on what? The Jays were the only team willing to trade a pitcher without getting pitching in return.

 

Based on what? Some executives didn't even know Lawrie was available when the Brewers traded him.

 

http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/2010/12/06/some-execs-surprised-lawrie-was-available/

[TooLiveBrew]

Based on what? The Jays were the only team willing to trade a pitcher without getting pitching in return.

 

Based on what? Some executives didn't even know Lawrie was available when the Brewers traded him.

 

http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/2010/12/06/some-execs-surprised-lawrie-was-available/

That's exactly what was on my mind when I made my post. Thanks for linking that, trwi7.

[Ennder]

Oddly enough Lawrie's value so far has come down to defense. The Brewer's assumed he would have negative value defensively and so far he has been well above average. If Lawrie continues to have well above average defensive stats this was a really bad trade no matter what happens. Having said that Lawrie went from being a HOF player (according to the many who loved him) to being league average offensively last year so who knows what to expect.

[TooLiveBrew]

Having said that Lawrie went from being a HOF player (according to the many who loved him)

 

Literally no one said that. Iirc some said he'd be an all-star. I'm not exactly sure where I'd peg him to finish his career, but he's going to make the Blue Jays the clear winner of the Marcum deal, which is the only context I really care about.

[Ennder]

Having said that Lawrie went from being a HOF player (according to the many who loved him)

 

Literally no one said that. Iirc some said he'd be an all-star. I'm not exactly sure where I'd peg him to finish his career, but he's going to make the Blue Jays the clear winner of the Marcum deal, which is the only context I really care about.

 

viewtopic.php?p=794969#p794969

 

Lawrie compared to Braun and being said to have more potential.

 

viewtopic.php?p=789061#p789061

 

Lawrie's WAR will match Braun's.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/story/_/id/7729121/toronto-blue-jays-third-baseman-brett-lawrie-bound-greatness

 

More talent than George Brett.

 

viewtopic.php?p=773598#p773598

 

I dunno remember who posted it but at least one person thought he had HOF type potential.

 

This reminds me so much of Nelson Cruz who has been a complete bust outside of hitting well only at home in a massive hitters park like 3 years after we traded him when he was already moving out of his prime and people say we made the worst deal in the history of baseball when we traded him.

 

This was definitely a window type trade, we had a couple of year window where we had a real chance to make a move in the playoffs and they went for it. We actually had arguably the best team in the NL the one season and tanked it vs the Cardinals. This is not some big failure move just because you would rather have played it safe. Either path makes sense.

[trwi7]

So potential to be as good as Braun or a chance to be as good as Braun by one person and he said he believes Braun will always be the better hitter and suddenly it's many people who said that?

[Ennder]

NO, but it certainly doesn't mean literally nobody thought he was going to be a HOF type player. The hype around Lawrie was way overblown after his first partial season.

[thebruce44]

Lawrie may turn out to be an All-Star yet, but without Marcum this team may well have not made the NLCS in 2011. There are always trade offs, but I wouldn't give up those memories for anything.

Amen. As much as I would love to have Lawrie and his potential in our lineup for the next decade, I would rather have taken the sure thing 2011 NL Central championship, Morgan's walkoff Game 5 hit and the NLCS appearance.

 

You could make a strong case against this. Lawrie replacing Fatty McGee would have probably helped the team more than Marcum replacing whoever in the pitching rotation.

[monty57]

I dunno remember who posted it but at least one person thought he had HOF type potential.

 

That would be me. However, I think you understand the difference between "Hall-of-Fame-potential" and "Hall-of-Fame-player." HoF potential means really high ceiling. To be a HoF player, you have to have HoF potential, and pretty much live up to it from day one (like Braun has).

 

Every year there are a few top prospects that are Hall-of-Fame-potential. Lawrie was a top prospect (very high ceiling), and two years after the trade, we still don't have anyone in our system that would register as "top prospect" or "HoF potential." Our best prospect now is almost 24 and may grow into a low-end #1 / high-end #2 starter in his prime. True top prospects are really hard to come by, and in my opinion, if a smaller-market team like the Brewers are going to trade one away, they should get more than 1.5 years of a good-but-not-great player in return. I believe that was precisely the point I made in the post you're remembering.

 

I think it shows how barren the Brewers' history has been that many posters are jubilant about losing a really good young player because the trade got them to one NLCS (not a World Series ring). How would Packer fans feel if they'd have traded away Aaron Rodgers when he was "just a bench player" and the veteran guy they got back for a season helped the team make it to one NFC Championship game loss? I hope someday Brewer fans won't be happy just making it to the playoffs. That day may never come, and will almost certainly never come if we continue to trade away players with the potential to be very, very good in return for a player that will make us a little better for a season or two.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think it shows how barren the Brewers' history has been that many posters are jubilant about losing a really good young player because the trade got them to one NLCS (not a World Series ring). How would Packer fans feel if they'd have traded away Aaron Rodgers when he was "just a bench player" and the veteran guy they got back for a season helped the team make it to one NFC Championship game loss? I hope someday Brewer fans won't be happy just making it to the playoffs. That day may never come, and will almost certainly never come if we continue to trade away players with the potential to be very, very good in return for a player that will make us a little better for a season or two.

This is so well-said. Bravo.

[Warning Track Power]

I think it shows how barren the Brewers' history has been that many posters are jubilant about losing a really good young player because the trade got them to one NLCS (not a World Series ring). How would Packer fans feel if they'd have traded away Aaron Rodgers when he was "just a bench player" and the veteran guy they got back for a season helped the team make it to one NFC Championship game loss? I hope someday Brewer fans won't be happy just making it to the playoffs. That day may never come, and will almost certainly never come if we continue to trade away players with the potential to be very, very good in return for a player that will make us a little better for a season or two.

This is so well-said. Bravo.

Seconded...and I am one of those fans who is ecstatic we made it to the NLCS. We have been starving for a winner for so long that even scraps tastes like filet mignon.

[TooLiveBrew]

We have been starving for a winner for so long that even scraps tastes like filet mignon.

For the love of all things good in the universe, I hope no Cardinals fan anywhere sees this. Ever.