Impressions of Seid thus far

[RockCoCougars]

Too early to make a fair evaluation, but so far, it's not looking good.

[splitterpfj]

On Seid's drafts...my grade is "Incomplete." Seid's guys are at the top levels of the system right now, so the next couple of years will really tell his tale.

 

I don't blame him at all for Covey, that was just bad luck, for me, the focus there just shifts to the two guys he took the next year.

 

Seid's first two number ones will not help the Brewers...Jack Z's first two number ones didn't either. The Brewers have plenty of prospects in the system right now, guys who profile as future major league players...they just don't have the "wow" guys. Maybe Victor Roache will change that.

 

Bruce hasn't had the top ten picks Jack had to work with, but Jack hit on Hardy, Hart, and Gallardo with later picks, let's see what we get out of Morris, Gennett, Thornburg, etc.

[TheCrew07]

For me it comes down to ceiling, and I don't think an organization has to be perfect drafting to develop pitching. I'm not opposed to high floor players like Jungmann or Fiers for example, but I'd rather not go "safe" for the sake of going safe with better talent on the board. I think the top of the 2011 draft is going to be a failure, especially with all of the pitching taken after Jungmann and Bradley whom are already better pitchers. I'd like a well rounded minor league system with all different types of ceilings, but that's not what I see when I look at our system. I see way too much potential to be average and not enough impact potential.

 

I've been following TB closely since 2008 and a big part of the reason they've developed so much pitching is that that they draft so much high upside pitching. They've missed on a ton of guys, but they've also hit on a ton of guys through sheer volume. Granted they also trade for young pitching, but to acquire "stars" you always have to be willing to be wrong and miss on a guy.

 

To me that's the difference between Z and Seid, Z was willing to swing on miss on guys. For example, Nelson isn't near the same level prospect as Gallardo or Hardy were. Gallardo and Hardy were high upside HS kids, Nelson a college starter who never really put it together and didn't dominate his level of competition and as such I've always found it very difficult to get on board with Nelson. Seid has taken players like Jungmann and Kentrail Davis while Z took players like Lawrie and Odorizzi in similar draft positions, just a tremendous difference between floors and ceilings in those picks.

 

Don't get me wrong Z made some horrible 1st round picks but he also nailed a bunch of them as well. Z's staff wasn't any better at any evaluating pitching than Seid's has been, but we had more positional talent so we had more trade options available.

 

I don't see any "bad luck" regarding Covey, his velocity was down, we knew it was down as every scouting report noted it, and we were debating what it meant. There were warning signs and I'm always suspicious of a loss of velocity because that means something negative is going on so I'm immediately thinking of injury or mechanical issues, though like everyone else I never considered a type 1 diagnosis.

 

As far as missing on the first couple of picks, pitchers get hurt so I don't really hold Jones against Z, what I do hold against Z is the lack of impact pitching at every level of organization. I find it very easy to forgive a SD for a player that got hurt rather than a player who just never able to be effective. Simply put we didn't have enough guys so when Rogers and Jones got hurt we were left with Gallardo, we needed a greater quantity of potential impact arms. Seid hasn't exactly turned that problem around and he hasn't drafted the hitting either.

 

From 2002 Z drafted in order: Fielder, Weeks, Rogers, Braun, Jeffress, LaPorta, Lawrie, Odorizzi, and Frederickson.

 

All of those players were high upside picks and only 3 of them were college players and only 1 of them didn't make the bigs, Frederickson was never able to throw with the velocity he showed at MP or harness his command and washed out early. That's a pretty good record for 1st round draft picks. Seid's lone HS pitching pick discussed above, Dylan Covey, didn't have near the arm that either Rogers or Jeffress did when they were drafted.

 

Seid's 1st rounders: Arnett, Davis, Heckathorn, Covey, Jungmann, Bradley, Coulter, Roache, and Haniger.

 

Of those players from a pure stuff/velocity standpoint on draft day none were potential 1s. All of the rest of pitchers were #2's best case and I'd argue that Jungmann was a #3 on draft day and still is. Again I really liked the Coulter, Roache, and Taylor picks from last year's draft, but was that a change in philosophy or a 1 year abberation?

 

I'm willing to give Seid 1 more draft, but the damage may have already been done, as the only high upside player from the 2009-2011 drafts who's performed well enough to discuss as a legitimate impact player is Thornburg.

[splitterpfj]

I'll give you the warning signs on Covey, that's a good point, but Seid still wound up with what he was after...two pitchers in the middle of round one.

 

When you list off the guys Jack hit on, the obvious point is that several of them were top ten overall picks, which Seid hasn't had, but yes, until this last draft, the team has leaned toward safe picks in recent years.

 

I wonder if that was done by intent, since the team had traded so many prospects out...draft the guys who are most likely to reach the big leagues, because we've left a huge hole in the farm system. I've always felt like Jungmann was exactly that...a safe bet to reach Milwaukee. The farm system had been aired out to get Greinke and Marcum, and the last #1 pick didn't sign...so they played it safe.

 

I don't think Seid has been great, or terrible. Like I said though, this is the year the AAA and AA rosters will be filled with "his guys", it won't take much longer for all of us to know for sure.

[TooLiveBrew]

When you list off the guys Jack hit on, the obvious point is that several of them were top ten overall picks, which Seid hasn't had, but yes, until this last draft, the team has leaned toward safe picks in recent years.

 

I wonder if that was done by intent, since the team had traded so many prospects out...draft the guys who are most likely to reach the big leagues, because we've left a huge hole in the farm system. I've always felt like Jungmann was exactly that...a safe bet to reach Milwaukee.

Well Jungmann was #12 overall (& wasn't the unprotected pick from losing Covey), which for me is close enough to top-10 to be really disappointed in whiffing on the chance to take a high-ceiling player & instead playing it safe.

[James Zumstein]

Hindsight always being 20/20, it's easy to say that we shouldn't have drafted Jungmann and Bradley, but if you recall at the time we pretty much had ZERO legit pitching prospects anywhere near ready for the big leagues. At the time of their signing, Melvin even hinted that each might be counted on during the 2012 season. Of course that didn't happen, but in June of 2011 nobody knew that Mike Fiers would do what he did in 2012, or that Mark Rogers would be healthy enough to contribute, or if Wily Peralta would be ready. There were lots of unknowns at that time, so going the conservative route was probably the right thing to do at that time.

[TooLiveBrew]

Fwiw, at the time there were plenty of people on this board alone that strongly disliked either one or both of those picks. I remember being disappointed with the Jungmann pick & drinking the Kool-Aid on Bradley.

 

And iirc the Melvin quip was about Jungmann alone, and that he could conceivably contribute at some point in '12. I took that to be Melvin answering a reporter's question (something like "Could Jungmann see the majors this season?") more than actively touting the prospect.

[James Zumstein]

While I wasn't very excited about either selection at the time, especially Bradley, who I've never thought highly of, I could understand the thinking of drafting some polished, if mediocre, pitching talent at that point in time. We were about to lose Grienke, Marcum and Wolf, and really had no in-house replacements. Of course most people, myself included, think that Melvin would have been better off taking one safe pick and one riskier but higher reward type pitcher, but I understand where the guy was coming from, needing MLB help ASAP.

[TooLiveBrew]

Gotcha. I was speaking to the 20/20 hindsight part of the comment.

[James Zumstein]

Now that we have built up some organizational pitching depth at the higher levels of the minors, and last year got some promising young hitters in the lower levels, it's time for them to take some chances on high risk/high reward type players. I know that a lot of people say that this isn't the strongest draft overall, but at #'s 17, 53, 72, and 90 we should still be able to get some very talented players. I hope the majority, if not all, of those picks are HS or JC guys with high upside, vs. college JR's that are a safer bet to make it, but will ultimately not be "game-changers". If they go the safe route, there will be lots of fans calling for Seid's head to roll.

[CheezWizHed]

A quick peek at how I think Seid has done. Overall, he seems like Ron Wolf in that he fails early, but hits on later rounds. The 2009 draft was abysmal for his early rounds, but also one of his stronger late drafts.

 

I'm not down on Taylor/Bradley as much as others are here. I think both are going to turn out fine and I still have hopes of high end for Bradley.

 

I picked out the top 5 rounds of each draft and added the significant others that came later.

 

Grades are based on position in the draft vs. what they have done back. So the late round "As" don't mean they are better than the first round "B". Just that Seid did a good job finding someone of that caliber at that draft round.

 

Round 2009 Grade

1 Eric Arnett F

1 Kentrail Davis D

1 Kyle Heckathorn D

2 Max Walla D

2 Cameron Garfield C

3 Josh Prince C

4 Brooks Hall C

5 D' Vontrey Richardson D

6 Hiram Burgos A

13 Sean Halton A

16 Scooter Gennett A

22 Mike Fiers A

 

 

Round 2010 Grade

1 Dylan Covey INC

2 Jimmy Nelson B

3 Tyler Thornburg A

4 Hunter Morris B

5 Matt Miller C

8 Austin Ross B

9 Yadiel Rivera B

10 Rafael Neda B

44 T.J. Mittelstaedt A

 

 

Round 2011 Grade

1 Taylor Jungmann B

1 Jed Bradley C

2 Jorge Lopez D

3 Drew Gagnon B

4 Nick Ramirez D

5 Michael Reed C

7 David Goforth B

16 Carlos Rodon A+

18 Chris McFarland A

 

 

 

Round 2012 Grade

1 Clint Coulter A

1 Victor Roache INC

1 Mitch Haniger B

2 Tyrone Taylor A

3 Zachary Quintana Too Early

4 Tyler Wagner Too Early

5 Damien Magnifico Too Early

[Raw Biz]

I don't think you can really grade anyone from 2012 yet since the sample size is so small but I do love what Tyrone Taylor did in the little time he played last year. As for Rodon, that would be a definite A+ if he signed but they didn't pay him the extra 600k or whatever it was so I think that should be an F. Just because it was a 16th rounder doesn't mean much to me because IRC, they were ready to take him in like the 4th if he would've signed for slot but he said no. I think they knew he was something special but for whatever reason, they didn't want to fork over that extra money.

[Noche]

A quick peek at how I think Seid has done. Overall, he seems like Ron Wolf in that he fails early, but hits on later rounds. The 2009 draft was abysmal for his early rounds, but also one of his stronger late drafts.

 

I'm not down on Taylor/Bradley as much as others are here. I think both are going to turn out fine and I still have hopes of high end for Bradley.

 

I picked out the top 5 rounds of each draft and added the significant others that came later.

 

Grades are based on position in the draft vs. what they have done back. So the late round "As" don't mean they are better than the first round "B". Just that Seid did a good job finding someone of that caliber at that draft round.

 

Round 2009 Grade

1 Eric Arnett F

1 Kentrail Davis D

1 Kyle Heckathorn D

2 Max Walla D

2 Cameron Garfield C

3 Josh Prince C

4 Brooks Hall C

5 D' Vontrey Richardson D

6 Hiram Burgos A

13 Sean Halton A

16 Scooter Gennett A

22 Mike Fiers A

 

 

Round 2010 Grade

1 Dylan Covey INC

2 Jimmy Nelson B

3 Tyler Thornburg A

4 Hunter Morris B

5 Matt Miller C

8 Austin Ross B

9 Yadiel Rivera B

10 Rafael Neda B

44 T.J. Mittelstaedt A

 

 

Round 2011 Grade

1 Taylor Jungmann B

1 Jed Bradley C

2 Jorge Lopez D

3 Drew Gagnon B

4 Nick Ramirez D

5 Michael Reed C

7 David Goforth B

16 Carlos Rodon A+

18 Chris McFarland A

 

 

 

Round 2012 Grade

1 Clint Coulter A

1 Victor Roache INC

1 Mitch Haniger B

2 Tyrone Taylor A

3 Zachary Quintana Too Early

4 Tyler Wagner Too Early

5 Damien Magnifico Too Early

 

I pretty much fall in line with this post. Seid has a nose for big-leaguers. Time will tell if he has nose for All-stars.

[CheezWizHed]

As for Rodon, that would be a definite A+ if he signed but they didn't pay him the extra 600k or whatever it was so I think that should be an F.

 

I'm trying to separate the identification of talent (and swinging for a long shot in the late rounds) and the ability to sign them. I don't know if Rodon would have signed for that much or not. Seems that I remember he had a pretty strong college commitment.

 

My 2012 grades are pretty early for sure, but I tried to give a loose judgement on what I remember them contributing. Coulter and Taylor doing well at Rookie+ as HS picks are pretty good.

 

Three guys that I still have high hopes to become "A" picks are:

- Jimmy Nelson: Has injury concerns and a little wildness, but a 94MPH sinking FB is pretty exciting

- Jed Bradley: Maybe its still Kool-Aide, but I still suspect he wasn't 100% all of last year and will bounce back strong this year.

- Victor Roache: If he heals up, could be the big-time power we were looking for.

[CheezWizHed]

For comparison's sake, here are Jack Z's years as Director of Scouting. I didn't grade these. The main difference I see in the draft success comes down to 3 people: Weeks, Fielder and Braun. Drafted at #2, #7 and #5 positions in the draft, where Bruce has never had a chance.

 

Round 2000 Draft

1 David Krynzel

3 Dane Artman

4 Eric Henderson

5 Jason Belcher

 

2001

1 Michael D. Jones

2 James J. Hardy

3 Jonathan G. Steitz

4 Bradley Nelson

5 Judd A. Richardson

9 Dennis S. Sarfate

15 Tim Dillard

 

2002

1 Prince G Fielder

2 Joshua A Murray

3 Eric M Thomas

4 Nicholas A Carter

5 Jarrad M Page

16 Dana J Eveland

25 John A Vanden Berg

34 Jeff D Housman

35 Tim Dillard

40 Hunter A Pence

 

2003

1 Rickie D Weeks

2 Anthony K Gwynn

3 Louis R Palmisano

4 Charlie Fermaint

5 Bryan H Opdyke

11 Adam R Heether

12 Carlos F Corporan

16 Mitchel B Stetter

19 Ty A Taubenheim

40 Robert Hinton

 

2004

1 Mark E Rogers

2 Yovani Gallardo

3 Joshua G Wahpepah

4 Joshua H Baker

5 Angel I Salome

17 Lorenzo L Cain

18 Darren R Ford

 

2005

1 Ryan J Braun

3 William B Inman

4 Matthew L Gamel

5 Kevin W Roberts

6 Steven J Hammond

7 Michael C Brantley

8 Jemile N Weeks

10 Stevenson N Garrison

18 William Z Braddock

25 Taylor W Green

 

 

2006

1 Jeremy R Jeffress

2 Brent E Brewer

3 Cole B Gillespie

4 Evan J Anundsen

5 Christopher J Errecart

10 Michael McClendon

 

2007

1 Matthew V LaPorta

3 Jonathan C Lucroy

4 Eric M Farris

5 Caleb C Gindl

6 Daniel W Merklinger

11 Cody M Scarpetta

14 Donovan Hand

 

2008

1 Brett R Lawrie

1 Jacob Odorizzi

1 Evan S Frederickson

2 Seth T Lintz

2 Cutter K Dykstra

2 Thomas C Adams

3 Logan E Schafer

4 Joshua M Romanski

5 Maverick A Lasker

8 Erik J Komatsu

13 Robert D Wooten

18 Nicholas B Bucci

21 Lucas L Luetge

49 Dan Meadows

[LouisEly]

How much of the 2009 draft can be blamed on Seid, and how much of it can be blamed on the entire Brewers scouting system which, IIRC, had been raided and had most if not all of the upper-level positions filled with people who were promoted or new to their positions? Is it a function of one person, or a bunch of people who were new to their roles?

 

As for 2011 and Jed Bradley, that pick had to be on the conservative side because the Brewers had little leverage - that was the Covey pick, and if they didn't sign that player they lost the pick. Debate Jungmann all you want, but if they picked a HS player at #15 any agent worth anything would have had the Brewers under his thumb.

[James Zumstein]

Great point. But they knew that was the case, so that's why they should have taken a chance at the #12 pick, then gone college pitcher at 15.

[colbyjack]

Jed Bradley wasn't a conservative pick. He entered the year as a projected top 10 overall pick, and even earned some buzz to go as high as 3 overall early in the spring. He was lights out the summer before on the Cape, and we can only hope that he re-finds whatever it was that allowed him to be successful during that time. He still has among the highest upside of any pitcher in the system.

[CheezWizHed]

Although I don't have nearly the clout of CJ, I agree totally with that last post. I'm following Jed's starts closely this year, probably more so than anyone in the system.

[TheCrew07]

I think there's little doubt that we desperately need the pre-draft Bradley who worked in the low to mid 90s with plus stuff back... and then we need 2 more LHP like that... and another couple of high ceiling RHP...

 

I despise losing that pick for Lohse, he'd better pull another sub 3.5 ERA out of his rear...

[splitterpfj]

Bradley and Roache mean a TON right now. The Brewers have a lot of prospects who will play in the big leagues, but they don't have the obvious future stars. If Bradley gets it back and Roache looks like the guy before the injury...presto...they have two.