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Hart to have knee surgery (Reply #88: Had surgery 1/25)


markedman5
And why was the market soft? Because teams knew they were only guaranteed Fielder for one year and if he did sign long term it was going to take a $200 million commitment for almost a decade.

 

 

No. It was soft because a whole slew of young 1B just entered the league. The same reason LaRoche didn't get offers from anyone but Was. Davis, Freeman, Goldschmidt, Hosmer etc are why the 1B market was soft when Fielder was in his last season, just way too much young talent was heading up for teams. The one team that would have made sense was the Dodgers but they had money issues at the time and were sort of freezing their assets in general. I guess the Giants made some sense at the time but they still haven't gone with an established 1B yet so I assume they either think Belt is going to hit eventually or that Posey or Panda will have to move to 1B. The team that actually did sign him moved an all star 1B off the position just to make room and only signed him because their DH got hurt. There just was no market for a 1B the past couple of years.

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The Brewers may never see another generation of homegrown talent like what arrive in the mid 2000's: Prince, Weeks, JJ, Hart, Braun, Gallardo. Each player is an All Star and produced or exceeded their prospect projections. It's not unlike the young talent the Yankees brought up in the mid 90's, that was the core of their Championship run: Bernie Williams, Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Rivera.

 

Melvin picked the right strategy from 2007-2012 by going for it.

Well, as much as I love that generation of Brewers, it's not even close to comparing to 3 solid HoF candidates & one fringe HoF candidate.

Although their careers are still in an early phase, I think it's reasonable to see Braun, Prince, and Gallardo as solid HOF candidates at this point. These 3 are a lot younger than you realize. If they play 8-10 years at a solid level given their ages, each could coast to HOF election.

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He would have to see his prime numbers improve on the foundation he already has established. He's only 24th in WAR over the past 4 years as an example. Hard to make a case for him being even a top 15 pitcher over his current stretch of games so he would have to take a significant step up and keep those gains for a good period of time. some sort of component ERA probably likes him more than FIP given his situation but I doubt it is enough to push him into the top 15.
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I will be stunned when WAR is universally used by BBWAA as a voting tool for HOF candidates.

 

Pettitte through his age 26 season: 67-35, 3.75 ERA, K/9=6.2; BB/9 3.0

You through age 26 season: 69-43, 3.63 ERA, K/9=9.2; BB/9=3.6

 

I assume it was Pettitte TLB was calling a fringe HOF'er, Jeter and Posada are the two solid candidates. Pettitte's ERA is more impressive I suppose given the hitter's era in which he began his career. It is a longshot to expect Yo or any pitcher to go on and win 245 games in his career (as Pettitte has done) when his current win total is 69. But that was true of Pettitte too.

 

My underlying point, you could no more say the Yankees were future HOF'ers than you can Braun, Prince, and Yo at comparable ages. The argument doesn't work.

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Posada isn't close to a HOF in my view. Nor is Pettitte, even without the steroids. Jeter and Posada out of that crew are the only HOF in my book. As for the Brewers, they had a nice run of churning guys out for a few years there, but probably only one HOF, which would be Fielder. Gallardo has never even been in the running for a Cy Young award, let alone HOF.

 

As for the Brewers franchise, they've had about three 4-6 year spans where they churned out very good prospects: 73-78, 86-91, 04-07. That's about it, and the well has been pretty dry the rest of the time. I'd guess that those three stretches are directly correlated with the scouting staff that existed at that time, namely Jack Z., Manno, and Baumer(I believe). The point here is that I feel that the Brewers could very well be entering a dry stretch. Success at the big league level has seemed to sustain for roughly 5 years after these stretches, and we are at that point right now.

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I assume it was Pettitte TLB was calling a fringe HOF'er, Jeter and Posada are the two solid candidates.

Correct. The third (hopefully obvious) solid candidate is Mo Rivera.

I would think, right or wrong, Pettite gets in on postseason performance.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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Why would Posada get in? Thurman Munson isn't in, and they had very similar careers even though Munson's was cut short. Posada had more power, but he should based on the era that he played in. He also had only 1600 some hits- is there anyone in with that few? The fact that he was a Yankee/catcher and won a lot of rings shouldn't get him in. I'd say the same thing for Pettite. He has a solid winning percentage, but that's to be expected from a guy that pitched for the Yankees almost his entire career. The post season performance is impressive, but it's come in a watered down playoff system. His postseason performance in general is more impressive than his World Series performance.
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  • 2 weeks later...
Sounds like Hart's MRI went well. Off crutches and beginning next stage of rehab.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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