Hart to have knee surgery (Reply #88: Had surgery 1/25)

[logan82]

Yeah they are in good financial shape but money doesn't buy good players unless you overpay. That can put in a bad financial situation really quick.

[monty57]

Yeah they are in good financial shape but money doesn't buy good players unless you overpay. That can put in a bad financial situation really quick.

 

Yes. Think of it from a team-building perspective. We are where we are, and the contracts that are on the books are on the books. We are going to lose a lot of talent over the next few seasons. These (in addition to guys we've already lost) are the guys who made us a competitive team over our recent history. These guys need to be replaced with equal or greater talent, or we will no longer be a competitive team.

 

We do not have the prospects to replace them. We do not have the prospects to trade for players to replace them (i.e. Greinke-style trades). We do not have enough young, high-end guys on the MLB roster to sign a bunch of "Lucroy-style" deals to keep people around at a reasonable price long-term. Segura and Peralta are the only potentials I see, but they're not sure things like Braun, so Melvin will probably wait a while before offering.

 

The Brewers will have some money as more contracts fall off the books. However, contracts are going up. Guys like Gomez will cost $12MM/year, while stars are making well over $20MM. If we have Braun, Lucroy and a bunch of fringe MLB guys (what most scouts think our farm will develop), does anyone think we will have enough money to "buy" a competitive team through free agency?

 

Since this thread is about Hart, I'll use him as an example. We could have traded him mid-season last year when we traded Greinke. With 1.5 seasons remaining, and him hitting like an All Star, we could have probably received around what we got in return for Greinke, only Melvin wouldn't have had his hands tied looking for the "best package built around a SS," so he would have been able to simply look for the "best package." That one move would've really helped our future, but it would have veered from the mantra of never trading away productive players while they're productive, and the Melvin/Attanasio combo isn't ready to make that change. Until and unless that decision is made, I figure we'll have about two more years of so-so Brewers baseball and then we're in for a long period of rebuild. Or worse, Melvin/Attanasio could continue to try to "compete" at the MLB level by trading prospects and spending in free agency, making us look like a slightly better funded version of the 1990's Brewers.

 

But we didn't move Hart because Melvin/Attanasio wanted to "go for it" again in 2013. Now the Brewers are paying for him to not play for a month or two, will probably not be able to trade him now that he has two straight years of the same knee problem (which again he seemingly had taped together rather than repaired - which would have cost him the season), and will be in a tough position of whether or not to make a qualifying offer to someone who may need season-ending surgery as soon as he signs the offer. The gradual decline will continue as Gomez and Hart will be lost for nothing at the end of the season, and we'll repeat the process next offseason with Ramirez and the following year with Gallardo and Weeks. I can already hear the cries of "we can't waste Gallardo & Weeks' last year, we have to back the truck up to sign _____ as a free agent," and that will be the end of our "being in good financial shape."

[RobDeer 45]

Boy Monty.... I don't think Hart gets close to what ZG got in a trade. I could be wrong on that but I really don't think Hart gets a ton back in return. If someone was going to offer us 3 prospects, including one that is highly rated, I'm sure DM would take it, but I doubt there were any clubs looking to do that last year. I think DM will look to move those two this year but I don't think you try to trade them until their final year of a contract/control. It's also easy to look back and say "that was the perfect time," prior to an injury. That's stuff you can't predict.

[JohnBriggs12]

monty57,

 

This team won 83 games with one of the worst bullpens in franchise history. This was on top of a 96 win campaign the year before where the pen was nearly flawless. To criticize them for going for it in 2013, seems rather odd doesn't it?

 

So the Brewers only control Braun and Lucroy beyond the next few years? Those are pretty nice pieces by the way. You assume by looking at the current makeup of the system that they'll only be able to replace the lost guys with marginal major leaguers? That's quite a stretch having just seen them add a valuable guy like Aoki. Who would have anticipated 2 years ago the leadoff hitter and starting RF would be someone named Aoki? He wasn't in the system anywhere. Do you consider him marginal talent? I don't. There will be 3 drafts between now and the end of Weeks' contract for instance. Yeah you do have to overpay some to get FA talent, but done selectively, when you don't have a lot of long term deals tying up money, it's very doable to fill a spot here and there as they did with Ramirez.

 

The Brewer system is short on everyday players now, but who knows where they will be in 3 years? The team is positioning itself for payroll flexibility by staying away from the Dempsters and Lohses. You say Hart has lost his trade value. How much did he really have? His salary off the books, adds to payroll flexibility just as Fielder's leaving did. If Morris development stalls this year, it's now at least conceivable Hart could be kept another year under a QO.

[RobDeer 45]

monty57,

 

This team won 83 games with one of the worst bullpens in franchise history. This was on top of a 96 win campaign the year before where the pen was nearly flawless. To criticize them for going for it in 2013, seems rather odd doesn't it?

 

So the Brewers only control Braun and Lucroy beyond the next few years? Those are pretty nice pieces by the way. You assume by looking at the current makeup of the system that they'll only be able to replace the lost guys with marginal major leaguers? That's quite a stretch having just seen them add a valuable guy like Aoki. Who would have anticipated 2 years ago the leadoff hitter and starting RF would be someone named Aoki? He wasn't in the system anywhere. Do you consider him marginal talent? I don't. There will be 3 drafts between now and the end of Weeks' contract for instance. Yeah you do have to overpay some to get FA talent, but done selectively, when you don't have a lot of long term deals tying up money, it's very doable to fill a spot here and there as they did with Ramirez.

 

The Brewer system is short on everyday players now, but who knows where they will be in 3 years? The team is positioning itself for payroll flexibility by staying away from the Dempsters and Lohses. You say Hart has lost his trade value. How much did he really have? His salary off the books, adds to payroll flexibility just as Fielder's leaving did. If Morris development stalls this year, it's now at least conceivable Hart could be kept another year under a QO.

 

Well said. And not to mention that we should be trading guys like Weeks, Yo in their last years (or going in to) along with the potential of Hart/Gomez this year. That will give us some young talent back hopefully to help with the lack of position players in our system. I'm not too worried. We may have some down time but hopefully not too much. We've had a pretty good run here with some chances to get lucky in the playoffs. Just didn't work out.

[trwi7]

Do you consider him marginal talent? I don't.

 

A 31 year old corner outfielder who hit .288/.355/.433. Marginal talent, no I guess not. Slightly above average talent who is on the decline, yes.

[monty57]

Boy Monty.... I don't think Hart gets close to what ZG got in a trade. I could be wrong on that but I really don't think Hart gets a ton back in return. If someone was going to offer us 3 prospects, including one that is highly rated, I'm sure DM would take it, but I doubt there were any clubs looking to do that last year. I think DM will look to move those two this year but I don't think you try to trade them until their final year of a contract/control. It's also easy to look back and say "that was the perfect time," prior to an injury. That's stuff you can't predict.

 

I was calling for trading him then... it didn't start after he got hurt. But yes, I think that 1.5 years of an All-Star caliber 1B/corner OF is equivalent trade value to 0.5 seasons of a top pitcher. As far as moving him this year, who is going to trade for a guy who has had the same injury two years running, and who was recommended to have a different surgery (one which would've cost him his final contract year) that would've better corrected the injury, but chose to go with the surgery which would allow him to play? He will be tradeable, but he's damaged goods, so his value is now very low and will be even lower when he only has a couple of months left in his contract. I certainly wouldn't look at adding years to Hart's contract, as I think he'll almost assuredly need the season-ending surgery at some point. As to Gomez, Melvin doesn't seem to be looking to trade him now, and his value drops significantly after the season starts, as the receiving team loses the ability to make the qualifying offer.

 

This team won 83 games with one of the worst bullpens in franchise history. This was on top of a 96 win campaign the year before where the pen was nearly flawless. To criticize them for going for it in 2013, seems rather odd doesn't it?

 

I criticize them for never doing anything that may look towards the future, instead making every decision based on making "right now" a little better. At some point, that is going to lead to ugly times, which I think are starting, and will really hit in a season or two. I'm not really down on this year, although I think we're significantly less talented now than we were 12 months ago, when we were less talented than we were 12 months before that. It's that trend that I worry will continue, so it's the not-too-distant future that worries me.

 

So the Brewers only control Braun and Lucroy beyond the next few years? Those are pretty nice pieces by the way. You assume by looking at the current makeup of the system that they'll only be able to replace the lost guys with marginal major leaguers? That's quite a stretch having just seen them add a valuable guy like Aoki. Who would have anticipated 2 years ago the leadoff hitter and starting RF would be someone named Aoki? He wasn't in the system anywhere. Do you consider him marginal talent? I don't. There will be 3 drafts between now and the end of Weeks' contract for instance. Yeah you do have to overpay some to get FA talent, but done selectively, when you don't have a lot of long term deals tying up money, it's very doable to fill a spot here and there as they did with Ramirez.

 

I do like Braun and Lucroy. I also like Segura and Peralta, although they both have to prove themselves worthy of an extension before they'll get one. However, they aren't enough for a contending team. Braun has been here during the good times, and we don't have anyone else who measures up to the talent we've lost and will continue to lose over the next couple of seasons. If we replace $10 bills with $5 bills, we'll be poorer. We can only have 25 men on the roster, so we can't make up for quality with quantity.

 

Our "core" has gotten older and more expensive, and that has mandated that it has gotten smaller, as we can't afford to pay many guys eight figure salaries and we don't have pre-arby/league minimum stars worthy of long-term deals. In a perfect world, we'd have 1-2 players every year worth giving a "Lucroy-style" deal to. In the recent past, we've only had Lucroy. When you look forward (looking at the whole system), and only a few players are "locks" to make significant contributions to your roster more then two years out, then I'd say we don't have a "core" to build around. I really hope some of our prospects step it up and become "core" players, but we don't have anyone we can really bank on. It's a far cry from several years back when we could say "we'll be better when Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, etc get here."

 

As to implementing a stretgy based on finding more guys like Aoki, Melvin sounded shocked when his lowball bid landed Aoki. Actually, he had to find tape on the guy, as no one from the Brewers had ever even seen him play, so I wouldn't assume that will be a continuing trend. At the time of the signing, I argued that Aoki should be pencilled in to replace Morgan, and Morgan should be shopped since his trade value was at a peak after his 2011 season... another lost chance at getting something of value for a redundant piece. I'd be happy if Melvin had a strategy of finding good international players to complement the roster, but it's not there.

 

In the end, that's really all I'm looking for, some type of trend that will show that we will improve into the future. The trend I see is one where Melvin/Attanasio will never trade a marketable player until they've given up on the last season of that player's contract, and they will almost never give up on a season. Therefore, most tradeable players will never be traded, and instead will leave with little-to-nothing in return, as Melvin once again makes a token offer that no star player (CC, Prince, Greinke) has yet to sign. If we want to sign a star, we need to do it early in their career when the team has a lot of leverage, and right now, we don't have star players at the pre-arby stage or in the minors.

 

So again, I'll ask again where the star players are going to come from. We won't be competitive without them, we don't have them in the minors, we can't afford them on the free agent market in the capacity needed to replace those that are leaving, and we won't trade MLB players to get them. We've gotten spoiled by having a big group of talented players arrive around the same time, and that group of players has either left or is nearing the exit. With those talented players, we could pretend we were "the big boys" for a few years and implement a strategy that is not sustainable in a smaller market, but is more likely to leave the team in a decade-long "rebuild."

 

We need to find a sustainable winning strategy for the market we inhabit. I'm not a big believer in the "don't worry, something will turn up" way of doing business.

[logan82]

There will be 3 drafts between now and the end of Weeks' contract for instance.

Sure there are but there is little chance anybody drafted in that time will be ready to contribute by then.

[Ennder]

I'm sure monty wishes we had traded guys during the 96 win year too. Trading away starting players before mid season last year would have been an awful move. It isn't like we had a depth to trade from which is what you usually see when you see these big trades made by teams who are expected to win.

[ewitkows]

Sounds like Green is getting the first shot at firstbase

[Fear The Chorizo]

I criticize them for never doing anything that may look towards the future, instead making every decision based on making "right now" a little better.

 

Trying to figure out how trading Greinke at the deadline last year isn't looking towards the future. Frankly giving a group of young arms their chance to earn long term big league roster spots this spring training instead of paying 12 million a year for Kyle Lohse is looking to the future too. Tough to deal in absolutes.

 

The only two prospects Melvin traded away in recent years that could develop into quality big leaguers are Lawrie and Odorizzi, neither being sure things. If he doesn't make those two trades, we're talking about how this team hasn't made the playoffs since 2008.

 

Viewing the MLB roster as a pile of trading chips to pick up prospects is looking at how to build an organization entirely the wrong way, especially when there's no depth in the high minors ready to replace the big leaguers. That would lead to starting arby clocks on guys too soon, and forcing the team to trade/release more of their best players during their prime seasons instead of at the start of their decline. The minor league system goal has to be to improve the big league team. I agree that the Brewers need to improve talent and depth throughout their minor league system in order to achieve that goal consistently, but that doesn't mean having to blow the big league club up to get as many minor leaguers as possible.

 

There's always room to question a baseball GM's roster and organization management - overall I think Melvin has done a good job with the hand he's dealt working in baseball's smallest market, knowing some personnel decisions have to be made to maximize revenues for them to remain competitive.

[monty57]

I'm sure monty wishes we had traded guys during the 96 win year too. Trading away starting players before mid season last year would have been an awful move. It isn't like we had a depth to trade from which is what you usually see when you see these big trades made by teams who are expected to win.

 

C'mon, you can make better than a strawman arguement. In 2010, all I was complaining about was Loe being the setup man. As to last year, my reference to Hart was that we should have looked to trade him mid-season, as we could probably have received a good return from him. The only person I wanted to trade prior to the season was Morgan once Aoki was signed.

 

Going into last year, we knew we were losing Greinke (being realistic), Wolf, K-Rod and Marcum when the season was over, so I thought we should have a "quick trigger finger" if we started out bad. Not having a "quick trigger finger" lost us the opportunity to trade Marcum, and with hindsight 20/20, not trading Hart basically left us with damaged goods going forward. Heck, if I remember correctly there were even teams willing to give us something (even if it was just salary relief) for K-Rod and Wolf until they completely imploded in the period before Melvin finally agreed to trade Greinke, at which point we couldn't pay people to take them. I'm happy that Melvin finally made a decision to trade a veteran before he walked, and what we got for Greinke will help us going forward. I wish that would shine some light on the notion that trading veterans for youth can be a good thing, and shouldn't always be looked at in a negative light.

 

On paper, we are much less talented going into this year than we were going into last year. That said, if everything goes right we have a small chance of making the playoffs now that they've been watered down, so I will cheer for that chance. I only look to trade players when it seems to make sense to trade them, and with Hart down, only Gomez would make any sense to trade. I don't know how much value Gomez would have in trade, so I'm not too worried if we don't shop him. Even if we're out of it mid-season this year, there probably won't be much worth trading, so I don't think I'll probably ask for anyone to be traded mid-season this year. I'll just be a little depressed when Hart and Gomez walk for nothing after the season, and I'd be more depressed if we extended the walking time bomb that is Corey Hart's knee.

 

All I'm saying is that we are sliding downhill from a talent standpoint. Does anyone argue that we are more talented "on paper" this year than we were last year or the year before? Since we don't really have any young players who project to be stars in a few years, and we are going to lose the guys who have been our stars for the recent past, can anyone make a good arguement as to how we are likely to be better in two or three years than we are today?

 

People throw stones at me, but no one will give me a realistic plan as to how we are going to be better in a few years than we are today. I want the Brewers to be good. I worry that they are in the waning days of their "window," and it's looking like we're set up for an extended period of down years. I'm optimistic by nature, so please someone lay out why I should be optimistic that the next 5-7 years will be as good or better than the last 5-7 years. Just note that my optimism has to be based in reality.

 

So, in my most optimistic tone I can muster, Hart is a Brewer for this year, and he should hit well when he returns from injury. We should have a good offense this season, and we will get to see what we have from our inexperienced starting rotation. If all goes well, this should be a fun team to watch, and I look to enjoy the 2013 season. As long as we don't think beyond that, then we will be A-OK.

[TooLiveBrew]

Trying to figure out how trading Greinke at the deadline last year isn't looking towards the future.

Melvin only dealt him when the only alternative was getting one sandwich-round comp. pick in return. Hardly a visionary approach.

[trwi7]

Trying to figure out how trading Greinke at the deadline last year isn't looking towards the future.

Melvin only dealt him when the only alternative was getting one sandwich-round comp. pick in return. Hardly a visionary approach.

 

Give him credit. I was terrified he was going to trade him for another Francisco Cordero, Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix type package.

[TheCrew07]

I'm sure monty wishes we had traded guys during the 96 win year too. Trading away starting players before mid season last year would have been an awful move.

 

Did you even read his entire well thought out post? He's talking about cycling talent to sustain our competitive edge which by the way there's no having it both ways when you are the Brewers. You can't trade for short term solutions and spend money foolishly in FA yet sustain success if you don't have the talent on the farm. This pattern has been so obvious I really do have a hard time believing people don't see Melvin for what he really is. I hate to say this but it's probably selfishness... "I want to win win next year so Melvin should do everything he can to ensure it"... and when Melvin does what he does patching the roster people think he's some all-star when he's arguably the worst GM in our division. That kind of thinking only works in a micro view of the MLB team, it's a losing strategy in any kind of macro view because there isn't enough talent to keep moving forward and improving the team.

 

You can justify anything you want if you narrow the view far enough... pick whatever window you want... Braun's prime, Hart and Weeks prior to FA, etc, and then yes you can justify every move Melvin has made within said framework. However when you start looking long-term none of it makes sense, not even trading for Sabathia in 2008. What good was a 1 and done in the playoffs to waste 2009 and 2010 with horrible rotations when the entire original core was hitting their peak all at the same time? Maybe we make a different kind of move in 2008 and don't make the playoffs then, but then we make the playoffs every year since, maybe we even win a WS.

 

What kind of move you ask? Ohh I don't know, maybe going after Niemann and Buchholz when they were on the market doing prospect for prospect trades or centering a deal around Hardy who was playing very well and nearing the end of his deal since we had Escobar behind him as a couple of examples. The thing is, all of this has already been posted literally dozens of times by any number of posters and yet we're still back here flaming anyone that criticizes management for the short term approach they've taken to organization building.

 

What good are draft picks when they are wasted? This has also been pointed out numerous times by various posters but the Brewers scouting department has been decimated, they lost the 5 scouts/crosscheckers they had when they draft Hardy/Fielder/Braun/Weeks/Hart, my goodness just look at the Brewer drafts since Z has left, they've been awful. We aren't drafting in the top 10 anymore, we aren't getting Braun or Weeks, we're drafting low enough in the first round we need to develop the player. What player have they drafted recently who's been ready for MLB in 3 years or less? The MLB draft should not ever be used to try and plug MLB holes, it's not like the NFL draft where a guy can have an immediate impact.

 

That's the point here people, we don't have the talent to replace the talent we are losing, so the idea being discussed is how to acquire that talent. We haven't been drafting it, we haven't been signing it out of Latin America, we can't afford it in FA, so if we don't trade for it how are we possibly going to acquire it? It's the exact same thing I've been beating to death about pitching... if you aren't developing young impact pitching, and you can't afford impact starting pitching in FA, then you damn well better trade for it or your organization is stuck in neutral.

 

Yes we made the playoffs twice...hooray... meanwhile since our core came up in 2006 the Cards have won 2 WS, managed to continually put a competitive roster together, and yet have a really good farm system. They've worked us every single way we can be worked and while they had good fortune in 2006 with Suppan pitching the best stretch of his career overall STL has proved to be a stronger franchise, we aren't in their class at all. Sure we had their number for a couple of years but what did that net us? The worst part is that I hate STL with a passion, almost as much as I hate the Cubs, it literally turns my stomach to point that out but it's the truth. I've had the same empty feeling in the pit of my stomach when I think about this stuff since 2008 when I realized that when Melvin/Ash were talking about trading hitting for pitching they meant making a move for a pitcher like Sabathia.

 

The Brewers aren't a storied franchise in MLB, not like the Packers are in NFL, but I would like them to be. To get there we have to be able to sustain excellence over a long period of time and we need to win championships. All of that starts with being able to sustain an elite rotation, there's no such thing as "good enough", and you don't need someone to post a "study" full of holes to prove this to you. Look around at other successful small markets, how do they manage talent, who do they sign in FA, what kind of trades do they make? Then compare it to the Brewers and what Melvin has done and there's a wide gulf between them and us in just about every way.

 

Staring in 2006 the Brewers have finished below .500 3 of the 7 years while ranking in runs:

 

14th in the NL in 2006 - 4th in the NL Central

5th in the NL in 2007 - 2nd in the NL Central

7th in the NL in 2008 - 2nd in the NL Central

3rd in the NL in 2009 - 3rd in the NL Central

4th in the NL in 2010 - 3rd in the NL Central

5th in the NL in 2011 - 1st in the NL Central

1st in the NL in 2012 - 3rd in the NL Central

 

The same time frame, here's the pitching by ER:

 

2006 - 15th in the NL

2007 - 9th in the NL

2008 - 2nd in the NL

2009 - 15th in the NL

2010 - 14th in the NL

2011 - 7th in the NL

2012 - 13th in the NL

 

That's Melvin's legacy, and not so coincidentally that's exactly what he built in TX as well. He's just not the right kind of GM for a team like Milwaukee, he's too conservative, he'd be better off in a larger market where he could buy impact pitching because he won't trade for it, and the Brewers haven't been developing it. It all comes down to pitching and that's why X (i miss him) and I started bagging on Melvin back in the day because we had all this awesome hitting talent and nothing on the pitching side to go with it. With our full complement of home grown hitters we were only in the top half of the NL twice from a pitching standpoint in all that time, that's terrible. People may not like me, or what I have to say, or think that I'm just a hater, but the numbers, trade history, and roster management over the years don't lie.

 

I don't get any pleasure in bagging on Brewer's management, in fact I've actually quit watching the MLB games and I never used to miss a pitch. I check in a couple of times a night or I'll watch a game as long as a young player I'm interested in is playing, but I rarely watch an entire game anymore. Like I said I've had this sense in impending doom like it was all going to come crashing down for a long time going all the way back to 2008 when most of you were celebrating the playoff appearance. I just saw that whole deal a different way and probably continue to view the organization much differently than many people who only post on the major league side of the forums.

 

You don't trade a productive a player just turn over the roster and that's not what Monty was suggesting, you trade them for a specific a reason targeting players that can help you sustain success over the long term. I would have traded Fielder for pitching at any point because he wasn't going to sign here long term, I would have traded Hardy for pitching, I'd trade Hart for any kind of impact player, I would have used our surplus MiLB talent to target young impact pitching instead of 2 CY winners, and I wouldn't have taken a quantity deal for Overbay. The dominoes didn't have to fall the way they did, it wasn't preordained by the baseball gods, it was just 1 man running the team the only way he knows how, and that's the other reason he has to go, because he's not adaptable/flexible, it takes him far too long to change course.

 

I'm not saying you have to agree with my, or Monty, or any other poster who feels similarly point of view, but at least make an effort to understand that point of view before dropping snarky 1 line meaningless responses. I probably shouldn't say this but I don't agree with JB12 all that much but I do take the time to read what he writes because it's obvious he puts time and thought into his posts, we just tend to see issues from much different perspectives. If you're just skimming these long posts then it's probably best not to comment on them at all because you're obviously missing the point of what's being written.

[Ennder]

I'm not saying you have to agree with my, or Monty, or any other poster who feels similarly point of view, but at least make an effort to understand that point of view before dropping snarky 1 line meaningless responses.

 

I understand the point of view. I just think it is being obtuse. You cannot build a franchise the way you suggest without depth in the talent pool and we have not had the depth you need. It started with rushing our talent up to the majors too quickly to put butts in the seats and then they decided to go for it during a window where they actually had world series talent but the team tanked both years in the playoffs. I understand that you want us to build the way the A's did and the way the Ray's do etc but you have to understand that these teams have always traded from areas of strength. They are two of the better franchises in the game at drafting and developing SP. The A's burn theirs up quickly and sell them before they get hurt and the Rays sell them right before they get expensive but in both cases they sell them when they really don't need them to compete the next year. We have not been in a situation of depth yet at any point in Melvin's tenure.

 

I don't think Melvin is a top end GM, I don't think he is a bad GM. I don't think the way he has run the team is bad in any way, it isn't perfect either. But this notion that we should have traded young guys every year is a poorly thought out one. This is our window of competitiveness and we simply have never had the depth in the minors to support trading away the major league talent to get more minor league talent. Jack Z was too awful at drafting pitching and ignored defense too much and the fact we had to blow prospects to fix the issue gave us a big hole in the minor league system that we haven't dug out of. We either could have some playoff runs or we could have a mediocre team with a good farm system, there was no real option to have both. There just wasn't enough real talent in the system.

[dlk9s]

To expand on Ennder's point, the problem with continually sacrificing the present for the future is that said future might never come.

 

I, too, would love it if the Brewers could build the perfect self-sustaining franchise that can win every year, but that's not the situation we've been in. DM made moves to bolster teams that had legitimate shots at the World Series. Barring extreme stupidity by other GM's, he wasn't going to strengthen both the present teams (meaning 2008-2012) and future teams simultaneously.

 

The real problem has been drafting, not trades.

[Raw Biz]

To expand on Ennder's point, the problem with continually sacrificing the present for the future is that said future might never come.

 

But who said you necessarily have to sacrifice the present? I don't think trading Hart last year or before this year would have been considered sacrificing the present. Last year, the team was basically out of it in July. Yeah they made a run at the end of the year but I don't think anyone really thought they were a strong enough team because the BP was so bad.

 

Then they knew they were getting Gamel back this year (obviously that didn't work out but I don't think anyone saw that coming) so they could have traded Hart at the break since they were out of it or anytime during the offseason. The offense might have lost a bit of production from Hart to Gamel but it still would most likely be a top 5 offense in the league. I would much rather have a middle of the pack offense and top of the pack rotation than vice-versa. We've always had tons of offense and no pitching. It's time to reverse that trend.

 

I don't think everyone is saying to just every youngish guy who has value. That wouldn't make sense. What does make sense, however, is when you have someone capable behind them (Hardy to Escobar, Hart to Gamel, Gomez to Schafer/Aoki), their contract is nearing the end, they probably wouldn't resign and/or be worth the money to resign, and the player would fit other teams' needs.

 

I would love for everyone to be career Brewers but other than Braun, that most likely won't happen because players are always looking for top dollar and once you get into the 30s, players regress and aren't worth the money. The replacements don't always need to be as good as the player they are replacing because hopefully, there will be enough talent around them to make up for it. You don't want to be trading multiple guys like this every year but it's not bad to trade one a year. The progression of the other players on the team plus the return on the trade should make up for whatever slight downgrade you get from the replacement.

 

Obviously all of this is "in a perfect world" but you have to take these risks at times, especially when they make sense. It made sense with Hardy (they just screwed up on the timing and target) and it made sense with Hart. I think it also made sense with Prince before they went out and got Marcum/Greinke. Hell, it might still have made sense then if they could have traded him for a young stud pitcher, which was definitely possible. Obviously the fans wouldn't have liked it but the potential pitcher and Gamel probably would have been worth more.

 

TL;DR Version: Just because you trade someone away doesn't mean you are sacrificing the present. If you are mediocre and/or have a decent replacement and the return is solid, it makes sense to take the risk.

[Ennder]

What does make sense, however, is when you have someone capable behind them (Hardy to Escobar, Hart to Gamel, Gomez to Schafer/Aoki), their contract is nearing the end, they probably wouldn't resign and/or be worth the money to resign, and the player would fit other teams' needs.

 

I don't disagree with the Hardy to Escobar part but the others are pretty meh. Gamel hasn't proven a thing and was hurt, hard to say you could rely on him the next season. Schafer probably doesn't profile as a starting major league player and once Hart moved to 1B there was no Gomez to Aoki. Last year we had no clue what we had in Aoki and Gomez had no value. The one time we had some sort of real positional depth in the past few years was with Hardy and we traded him (a trade I didn't like btw). The entire reason the Brewers have pushed players into the majors so fast is because there has been no depth, we have been playing do or die every season. I'm confident that the reason they pushed them up so fast is to get the fanbase back because this was the worst franchise in baseball when Melvin took over, it wasn't really close. I'm very happy we are where we are now compared to say the Pirates who actually had a better franchise back then.

[dlk9s]

But who said you necessarily have to sacrifice the present? I don't think trading Hart last year or before this year would have been considered sacrificing the present. Last year, the team was basically out of it in July. Yeah they made a run at the end of the year but I don't think anyone really thought they were a strong enough team because the BP was so bad.

 

I'm not really talking about specific moves, but more the general attitude people take that as soon as someone gets good, they should be traded.

[trwi7]

But who said you necessarily have to sacrifice the present? I don't think trading Hart last year or before this year would have been considered sacrificing the present. Last year, the team was basically out of it in July. Yeah they made a run at the end of the year but I don't think anyone really thought they were a strong enough team because the BP was so bad.

 

I'm not really talking about specific moves, but more the general attitude people take that as soon as someone gets good, they should be traded.

 

TheCrew has never said trade everyone when they get good for prospects. He has always said identify core players and sign them cheaply to buy out free agent years and get them below market value in their primes (see Braun, Lucroy, Gallardo). If you have a guy who you would like to make a core player but for whatever reason can't (see Fielder who was never going to sign beyond when he would become a free agent) then that player should be expendable whether it's two or three years before free agency to get the most value in a trade for him or after a monster season and then you have supporting pieces like Hart, Gomez and Weeks. Hart is 31 and a free agent after the season who is starting to have knee problems. He probably doesn't have much value now but he did a couple of years ago. Same with Weeks, probably doesn't have much value now but if he has a bounce back season he will. Gomez should have been shopped in the offseason imo. He's a free agent after the season, coming off a good 2012 season. He's not part of the core, Schafer is ready to replace him and he's going to get overpaid in the offseason if he even comes close to what he did last year and he'll walk without any compensation.

[Ennder]

Hart is 31 and a free agent after the season who is starting to have knee problems. He probably doesn't have much value now but he did a couple of years ago. Same with Weeks, probably doesn't have much value now but if he has a bounce back season he will. Gomez should have been shopped in the offseason imo. He's a free agent after the season, coming off a good 2012 season. He's not part of the core, Schafer is ready to replace him and he's going to get overpaid in the offseason if he even comes close to what he did last year and he'll walk without any compensation.

 

Hart has had an injury every year of his career, usually at the end of the season, it has really killed any trade value he has had. Weeks has been about the same, we know his talent level is above his production. There was no reason to trade him in 2011 and he had such an awful start to 2012 you couldn't trade him. These are exactly the type of issues I have. The we should have traded him concepts without looking at the context of the player and the reality of the situation. Gomez also has very little value after just one good year and Schafer isn't likely a major league starting player so we don't really have depth there. This was also the year where CF's were a dime a dozen with Bourn taking a below value contract since there were so many on the market, awful year to try to trade Gomez compared to most.

[RockCoCougars]

This idea of retooling requires hindsight in two areas. First, when exactly are you selling at peak value? Second, who would you have been able to get back for these guys? I don't think that anyone here has enough knowledge to say, 'We missed the boat by not trading Player A for Player B'. We have heard lots of names thrown around.... Circa 2009/2010- Cain for Fielder, Hudson for Fielder, Sanchez for Hart, etc., but no one knows whether those deals were actually on the table. In hindsight, the first deal looks OK, the last two are laughable. To evaluate Melvin, all we can do is look at is the deals they actually did make. Obviously, the Marcum deal doesn't look that great in hindsight, but the Greinke deal does. Say what you will, but if Greinke is not added (possbily Marcum too), the 2011 run doesn't happen.

 

Without having the huge dollars to toss around, I just don't see that a team can maintain competitiveness for a long period of time by 'striking while the iron is hot'. Mediocrity maybe, but not sustained playoff runs. The Twins of the 2000's would be the best example of this, but they were in a horrid division.

 

Bottom line, it's going to hinge almost all on the young pitching, but they could very well be entering a period of non-competitiveness if things don't pan out. This team actually reminds me quite a bit of the 1985/1986 era team... lots of vets in the lineup, but a very young and unsettled rotation.

[docduany]

Trading Fielder was brought up. Melvin did try to trade Prince in his walk year, but the market was soft. With the soft market Melvin went the other way and got a playoff team together with Fielder. I like that he was able to shift gears and go the other direction (from reloading/ rebuilding to contending). That other direction did cost us our best prospects, but I liked the moves at the time and won't Monday morning quarterback them.

 

Hart was supposedly available this off season, but apparently there wasn't a sweet enough deal on the table. I'm sure no one here would've been happy to just give Hart away. Melvin stated that he likes to trade position players in the off season as he feels they bring back a better return, so that's a likely reason he wasn't dealt when Greinke was.

 

I'm with those who think Melvin is a good, not great GM. The Crew, Toolivebrew, & Monty, I love your big ideas and think they usually have sound reasoning. But are we sure that Melvin had the freedom (Attanasio) and the dance partners to pull off these moves?

[trwi7]

Trading Fielder was brought up. Melvin did try to trade Prince in his walk year, but the market was soft.

 

And why was the market soft? Because teams knew they were only guaranteed Fielder for one year and if he did sign long term it was going to take a $200 million commitment for almost a decade.