Axford signs

[torts]

I think the real question becomes:

 

Do you re-insert him as the closer if K-Rod and Henderson are dealt at the deadline or are you comfortable with him as the 7th/8th inning guy?

 

I just don't think the Brewers are trading Ax.

 

if they trade both KRod and Henderson, do you really have any other option at that point?

Gonzalez?

 

I feel like that should be in blue

[Warning Track Power]

I wish it were...but I have no doubt that thought would percolate in RR's brain.

[torts]

I wish it were...but I have no doubt that thought would percolate in RR's brain.

 

can Yuni pitch?

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the real question becomes:

 

Do you re-insert him as the closer if K-Rod and Henderson are dealt at the deadline or are you comfortable with him as the 7th/8th inning guy?

 

I just don't think the Brewers are trading Ax.

My answer at that point would be... who cares who's closing games? If it's a lost season, let's give Mac McGehee a call & see if he available to close games.

[Warning Track Power]

I am not speaking about the ability to close games as it relates to winning ballgames. I am more speaking to the value of Axford as a pitcher moving forward and whether he remains a Brewer past 2013 or as a trade piece in the offseason. My thought is he has been lights out as a non-closing reliever this year. Do we continue to keep him in this role as a solid contributor for our pen moving forward OR given the trading of our two closers (K-Rod & Henderson), do we hope he returns as a lockdown closer to potentially deal him in the offseason?

[nate82]

I am not speaking about the ability to close games as it relates to winning ballgames. I am more speaking to the value of Axford as a pitcher moving forward and whether he remains a Brewer past 2013 or as a trade piece in the offseason. My thought is he has been lights out as a non-closing reliever this year. Do we continue to keep him in this role as a solid contributor for our pen moving forward OR given the trading of our two closers (K-Rod & Henderson), do we hope he returns as a lockdown closer to potentially deal him in the offseason?

 

I don't believe Henderson will be traded it will probably be Axford and K-Rod who will get traded along with a couple other bullpen arms. This would also open up some roster space to include some players from the minors assuming the Brewers don't get anyone from a teams 40-man. I would also like to see someone like Thornburg, Sanchez, and others get a chance at the late inning reliever role after the deadline.

 

From this article on MLB Trade Rumors it looks as though Axford, K-Rod, and Gonzalez are generating enough noise for a trade.

[brewcrewdue80]

The thing with Axford is price. He's 5mil this year and he keeps up his current return to form I'd see him as an 8mil-9mil guy next season. For the Brewers that's just too much a pricetag.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The thing with Axford is price. He's 5mil this year and he keeps up his current return to form I'd see him as an 8mil-9mil guy next season. For the Brewers that's just too much a pricetag.

 

It's inevitable he's gone for this reason. Doug Melvin and RR made a really good decision to keep trotting Axford out there and to make him an 8th inning guy instead of a 9th inning closer. However, I believe it was all planned to increase his trade value for the inevitable departure.

[torts]

yeah, as much as id love to see Axford a Brewer for the long haul, after he priced himself at $5 mil through arbitration... it only goes up from here. I dont think I can recall a single time someone went to arbitration and got less than the year before, does anyone know of a situation like that happening? He seems like a perfect candidate to go to Detroit IMO

[LouisEly]

The thing with Axford is price. He's 5mil this year and he keeps up his current return to form I'd see him as an 8mil-9mil guy next season. For the Brewers that's just too much a pricetag.

Highly unlikely that he gets a raise. He doesn't have the comps to get more than $5M - he is a setup man this year (no saves), and setup men don't get $5M/year. He had a bad 2011 on top of that so what comps does he have to support $8M/year?

[torts]

The thing with Axford is price. He's 5mil this year and he keeps up his current return to form I'd see him as an 8mil-9mil guy next season. For the Brewers that's just too much a pricetag.

Highly unlikely that he gets a raise. He doesn't have the comps to get more than $5M - he is a setup man this year (no saves), and setup men don't get $5M/year. He had a bad 2011 on top of that so what comps does he have to support $8M/year?

 

it hasnt been a full season, so you cant say yet. if they trade off krod, then theres the chance Axford could close again with Henderson. even as a setup man, if he's able to perform great and not give up runs like he's been doing for the last month, he will absolutely get a raise. arbitration awards for relievers are not based on games saved, they're based on overall performance, and if he has a stellar second half and does not get traded, he'll definitely get a raise.

[Bombers]

The thing with Axford is price. He's 5mil this year and he keeps up his current return to form I'd see him as an 8mil-9mil guy next season. For the Brewers that's just too much a pricetag.

Highly unlikely that he gets a raise. He doesn't have the comps to get more than $5M - he is a setup man this year (no saves), and setup men don't get $5M/year. He had a bad 2011 on top of that so what comps does he have to support $8M/year?

That is a good question. I couldn't find a situation where a guy lost money in year 2 in arbitration. Especially if his stats get better. (Even though Ax went from 9th inning man in 2012 to 8th in 2013, I still think it will go up.) ...

 

Looking at bbref, it shows Jose Valverde as a comp to Ax. Here is how Jose went through Arby:

2006 - yr 3 - 5.87 ERA - 17 SV - $359k

2007 - yr 4 - 2.66 ERA - 47 SV - 2m

2008 - y4 5 - 3.38 ERA - 44 SV - 4.7m

2009 - yr 6 - 2.33 ERA - 25 SV - 8m

 

Ax:

2011 - yr 2 - 1.95 ERA - 46 SV - 442k

2012 - yr 3 - 4.67 ERA - 35 SV - 500k

2013 - yr 4 - 4.09 ERA - 0 SV - 5m

 

So in the example, Valverde, while underperforming in year 3, was still given a substantial raise in his first year of Arby. He then had 2 of his best years during his first 2 years of Arby. Not the Case for Ax. But I really don't see, him getting less. I would anticipate:

2014: 7 - 8 million

2015: 10-12 million (Would be based on if he goes back into a closer role. Otherwise, he might settle out around that 7-8. Which then you are right his raise won't be huge next year, but it wouldn't be less than $1m increase)

[fondybrewfan]

I would trade Axford in a heartbeat. Considering the run he is on, I have to imagine a high payroll team wouldn't bat an eye at paying Axford $6 Million + next year. Outside of a basically 2 week blip he has been great this year and would be a huge addition to a contending teams bullpen. I think the Brewers should be fine with their bullpen going forward if they trade him.

 

That being said I would have no idea what to expect as a return. The buying team would have control for 2.5 more years and his salary isn't cheap. Could you get a guy in the Top 75-125? Maybe.

[Bombers]

I would trade Axford in a heartbeat. Considering the run he is on, I have to imagine a high payroll team wouldn't bat an eye at paying Axford $6 Million + next year. Outside of a basically 2 week blip he has been great this year and would be a huge addition to a contending teams bullpen. I think the Brewers should be fine with their bullpen going forward if they trade him.

 

That being said I would have no idea what to expect as a return. The buying team would have control for 2.5 more years and his salary isn't cheap. Could you get a guy in the Top 75-125? Maybe.

We traded 3 of our top 10 pitchers for Scott Linebrink (I don't know what Will Inman's overall rating was but I don't think it was top 100) ... Anything is possible

[Bombers]

I answered my own question. In 2007 Inman was ranked 91 out of 100 by Baseball America.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2007/263445.html

[fondybrewfan]

And if I remember correctly Linebrink was only a 2 month rental right? To bad Doug can't trade with himself for relievers. We might be able to net Jimmy Nelson out of this.

[MJLiverock]

Didn't team pretty much know they were going to get a supplemental pick as well when Linebrink walked. Not to mention Inman never amounted to anything so I really don't want to trade for prospects who aren't really prospects.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Axford and K-Rod are getting traded. Ax will go strictly due to the amount of money he'd make next year. Henderson will be a lot cheaper option as a closer.

[LouisEly]

Valverde was still the closer in year 4 (and a much better ERA so far) and only got 4.7M so I would not expect Axford to get more than $5M as a setup man. An interesting comp is J.J. Putz; he had a rough 2009 (may have been hurt - only pitched 29 games), re-established himself as a set-up man (with 3 saves) with the White Sox in 2010 (2.83 ERA, 1.037 WHIP), and signed a four year deal with Arizona to be their closer that averages $5.5M/year.

 

Grilli established himself as a setup man in PIT in 2011 and 2012 (2 saves in 2012, 2.91 ERA) and got a 2 year deal averaging $3.4M. Jim Johnson as a super 2 and closer got $6.5M. Balfour was a setup man with TB and got a 3-year deal with OAK averaging $4M/year. If Axford isn't closing he isn't going to get elite closer money.

[Bombers]

Didn't team pretty much know they were going to get a supplemental pick as well when Linebrink walked. Not to mention Inman never amounted to anything so I really don't want to trade for prospects who aren't really prospects.

When the Brewers traded 3 prospects for Linebrinks 2 months of garbage, I certainly wasn't happy. Inman never did amount for anything but that is half luck. (Joe Thatcher was also included in the deal and he has been a good relief pitcher for 7 years) If we could get the same haul for both Krod and Ax, I do that all day long.

 

You never know what a prospect will amount to, but I would take my chances with 3 guys and 1 of them are ranked in the top 100

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Henderson stays just because he is cheap. But I think it is almost a lock that K-Rod, Axford and Gonzalez all traded.