Rafael Soriano to WAS (2yrs/$28M)

[PrinceFielderx1]

Is the bullpen really where they needed to spend this type of money and add strength? Was this really the piece of the puzzle that was needed for a "World Series run"?

Considering how volatile relievers are from year to year, I would say yes.

 

All relievers have up and down years. If a reliever is having a down year, then it's important to have depth (cheap depth) to be able to step in a replace him. It's an extremely risky move to commit this kind of money to a reliever, and in my opinion most of the time if not all the time not worth it.

[jjkoestler]

Is the bullpen really where they needed to spend this type of money and add strength? Was this really the piece of the puzzle that was needed for a "World Series run"?

Considering how volatile relievers are from year to year, I would say yes.

 

All relievers have up and down years. If a reliever is having a down year, then it's important to have depth (cheap depth) to be able to step in a replace him. It's an extremely risky move to commit this kind of money to a reliever, and in my opinion most of the time if not all the time not worth it.

 

It is important for small market teams to have cheap depth. This would be a horrible move for the Brewers, but I think its an excellent one for the Nats. Is there team better after the signing? Yes. Will they be crippled financially if Soriano blows out his arm in spring training? No.

[PrinceFielderx1]

You could very well make the case that this is a good move for the Nats before a game is even played (on paper), even though they really overpaid big time. Once the games are played and should he have one of those common middle of the road or down years that a reliever is commonly known to have, then I'd bet that there will be many fans (Nats fans and others) that will say, "Wow, did the Nationals just waste 15-19 million dollars." They will be less favorable of this deal. Usually you can find at least 1 reliever that got paid a fraction of what he got paid during FA and that performed better that season.

 

Btw.. Should he blow out his arm in ST and get injured, then they just wasted 50% of his contract, and likely more because he will be done for the season or depending on the injury some of the following year as well. It will make the Nationals really look bad.

 

It's extremely risky to sign a reliever to a deal like this.

[sveumrules]

The Nationals have the money to spend and Soriano over the last 3 years has been one of the top bullpen arms in the game. Losing the draft pick/money might hurt a little but it's at the very back end of the first round (wouldn't be surprised if they're picking around there again next year) and they just got A.J. Cole back for Michael Morse so that certainly softens the blow significantly.

[Ennder]

Not to mention the Morse trade freed up just about exactly the same amount that this cost for this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Here's a question. How many deals have ever been made like this? Signing him to a big 2yr/28mil contract but then paying half of it years from now? That money counts on Wash's payroll for those years correct? From some standpoint, shouldn't MLB have a problem with this? If I were the Yankees I'd over pay someone and load the contract for 2016-2020 with just 1-3mil counting for these seasons. Seeing as a loophole to get under the luxury tax. Just doesn't seem legit to me for them to spread out his pay over multiple years, years from now. I feel like by dating the pay for the future brings in the fact that the luxury tax will rise to accomodate these kind of contracts paid out.

 

I am floored at the fact the option picks up on a total of 120 games finished. That seems like a no chance on Soriano's part to accomplish. Heck, even appearing in 120 games isn't easy. The team easily can withhold him from finishing games throughout both seasons. And as it stands, with this incentive in his contract, Soriano HAS to be Washington's Closer from day 1 pushing out Storen. 1month w/o being closer for Washington has to end any chance of Soriano reaching that incentive.

[logan82]

Braun has about $4mish differed for several years. His actual contract never pays him more than $15m in any given year, I believe.

[brewcrewdue80]

Braun has about $4mish differed for several years. His actual contract never pays him more than $15m in any given year, I believe.

 

Via Baseball Reference Braun's salary would go as follows

2013 $8,500,000

2014 $10,000,000

2015 $12,000,000

2016 $19,000,000

2017 $19,000,000

2018 $19,000,000

2019 $18,000,000

2020 $16,000,000

2021 *$20,000,000 $20M Mutual Option, $4M Buyout

[Baldkin]

Braun has about $4mish differed for several years. His actual contract never pays him more than $15m in any given year, I believe.

 

Via Baseball Reference Braun's salary would go as follows

2013 $8,500,000

2014 $10,000,000

2015 $12,000,000

2016 $19,000,000

2017 $19,000,000

2018 $19,000,000

2019 $18,000,000

2020 $16,000,000

2021 *$20,000,000 $20M Mutual Option, $4M Buyout

 

What reference doesn't have is this:

$18M in salary ($4M each in 2016-18 and $3M each in 2019-20) deferred without interest, to be paid in equal installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2031

[WV Brew]

The Washington Post says Soriano will be the closer. The Nationals bullpen, despite blowing the playoffs, was about as good as a bullpen gets last year. I predict that they will be worse this year if only because last year would be hard to duplicate. I'm not sure it was wise to get rid of Morse either.

[monty57]

Roderick,

 

It's irrelevant, because it's still WAY too much money committed a reliever.

 

On principle I agree with you. However, with the QO value set at $13.5MM this year and presumably going up every year, the value for top players at any position goes up. If any reliever is worth a QO, then the baseline pay is at least the QO. More & more closers are going to get paid greater than the QO amount.

 

Plus, there is the whole money disparity thing. I may find it crazy to pay $100,000 for a car, but Jay Leno has a fleet of cars worth well more than $100k. The value of $100k is different to me than it is to Jay Leno, in the same way the value of $14MM is different to the Brewers than it is to the Nationals.

 

I hope that the Brewers do what you're preaching, which is build up a bullpen (and starting rotation) from the farm, and trade away guys as they begin to get expensive, replacing them with more good, young, inexpensive guys from the farm. Let the big money teams give us prospects for our "proven closers," who they'll extend to eight figure salaries. At the same time, I understand how this helps the Nationals (who on paper are already one of the top teams in the National League) get a little stronger and therefore have a little better shot at winning it all.

[Ennder]

The Washington Post says Soriano will be the closer. The Nationals bullpen, despite blowing the playoffs, was about as good as a bullpen gets last year. I predict that they will be worse this year if only because last year would be hard to duplicate. I'm not sure it was wise to get rid of Morse either.

 

They have a lot of quality depth at OF in the minors so it was a low risk move. Morse is really nothing special either, doesn't walk enough, bad baserunner, poor defensive player. Yeah his power is nice but he is replaceable. Their bullpen really wasn't anything special last year, it just had a good ERA. They were middle of the pack in the NL in FIP and one of the worst bullpens in xFIP. Some of that is park factor and defense and part of it is likely just good fortune. Bullpen ERA is extremely volatile year to year.