Brewers zips posted

[Ennder]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/

 

That has us as a roughly 80 win team keeping in mind it is pretty heavily regressed so a lot of teams come out in the 75-85 range. Pretty much comes down to how the rotation ends up doing since it is such a high variance variable.

[dlk9s]

Oh...I thought this thread was going to be a partial reveal of players' addresses.

[Funketown]

Most of those look right on to me. Segura's projection strikes me as a bit optimistic; I'll be pretty happy if he posts a ~.315 wOBA.

 

So what's the general thought on who fills out the rotation? I'm assuming 1-2-3 is Gallardo-Fiers-Estrada. Fangraphs has Narveson-Rogers, but I'd rather see Peralta in either of those spots to be frank.

 

I wonder how long Shaun Marcum has to hang around before he gets a call from Mr. Melvin...

[logan82]

I would be very very happy with that batting line out of Segura. Add that line to average defense and that would probably put him in the top half of SS in the league..

 

Pretty decent projection for Gamel as well considering his MLB stats. About the same as Aoki.

[fondybrewfan]

Sea Bass Gonzalez?

[umphrey]

The ones I noticed were Jim Henderson at 4.94 ERA and Michael Olmstead at 3.61 ERA (2nd best reliever).

[RayKingsForemanGrill]

How did I not know Alex Gonzalez' nickname was Sea Bass?

[Tim_Unroe_Helped]

I know it doesn't mean much, but I'm seeing who the number 1 comparison is for Jean Segura and for Tyler Thornburg on that website. That's kind of scary.

[endaround]

If Segura has Clayton's career that would be great.

[Tim_Unroe_Helped]

I suppose he had a decent career... I just have a more vivid memory of his season with the Brewers. I suppose it wasn't that out of line for his career, but it was amongst his worst years in the majors.

[JohnBriggs12]

Reading "projections" is a total waste of time.

[Ennder]

Reading "projections" is a total waste of time.

 

More useful than say reading what TH has to say or buying a baseball magazine and people still do that.

[homer]

Reading "projections" is a total waste of time.

 

Thanks for sharing!

[Warning Track Power]

Starlin Castro's comp is Robin Yount...that's an interesting assessment.

[Yeti73]

If Segura has Clayton's career that would be great.

 

I hope this is a joke. Yes, he's in the record books for most pinch hits (I believe) and his longevity is pretty remarkable, but the guy was a low average, low OBP hitter with little power. He was a decent infielder, but Segura has a far higher floor and ceiling.

 

I loved that GoGo's comparable was Tim Raines. If that is the case, lock him up now!!!

[Tim_Unroe_Helped]

He had a few years that were decent and he was an all-star (one year), but I'd hope Segura could post a better line than .258/.312/.367, especially since Clayton was known as a plus defensive shortstop and Segura's defensive abilities at shortstop have been questioned.

[brewcrewdue80]

I wouldn't worry to much with comparisons I'm sure Gomez was no where near a Raines comparison prior to last year. So Segura will move up the ladder.

Others that stand out as what?

Gennet being compared to Martin Prado!

Braun being compared to Matt Holiday. They couldn't find a better hitter to compare Braun to? At this point imo Braun has already exceeded Holliday. More power, more Sbs much higher BA. Why not Barry Bonds? Unless it's on the LH/RH aspect.

Lucroy to Terry Steinbach. That's solid. What stands out to me is that in 96 Steinbach hit 35HRs age 34 season having never hit more than 16. Different thread but theres a case to be made on Steroids improvement there?

 

Then we have Estrada compared to Chris Carpenter. Wow. That's a Cy Young winner we possess! Sign him to a long term deal right?

Fiers listed as Cal Eldred...ouch That pretty means Fiers had his run and is only serviceable at best as a pitcher the remainder of his career. Though Eldred did pitch 258 innings his year after that ROY. Which if Fiers can go 33 starts and pitch over 200In. at a 4Era, we'd all take that right now.

[Ennder]

Those comps don't really mean much at all. They spit out comps to like 1000 players for most guys and the #1 isn't much different than the 800th.

 

Reading "projections" is a total waste of time.

 

They obviously can never be perfect since players change all the time but over the entire entity of baseball there are certain aging patterns, changes in effectiveness due to switch parks etc and these will tell you more about a player than just looking at previous stats will most of the time. This is yet another case of needing to understand how to use something to make it useful. If you don't understand the underlying uncertainty and the fact they are based on percentile aggregates you probably can't understand how it could be useful. Just like BABIP used improperly is useless but used properly can really tell you a lot.

[rluzinski]

No one can see the future but I will weight any reasonable projection system higher than any one person's opinion, that is for sure. No matter your method, though, trying to project future performance is difficult and with young players, VERY difficult. It will be interesting to see how that young rotation performs.

[gregmag]

Reading comments from people who reflexively dismiss information they don't understand is a waste of time.

[Thurston Fluff]

I agree but is it any worse than people who just accept information they don't understand? Seems that happens quite often judging from how misused some advanced metrics are are at times. I tend to think a lot of dismissal is as much due to that than simply being too stupid or lazy to understand them. I kind of like zips as it gives a nice objective preview to use when nothing else can be at this point of the year. But inevitably you'll get someone mid season talking about how good someone is by using zips or saying some rookie is better than he is producing by using Zips.

[gregmag]

I agree with you that aggressive ignorance is as bad as passive ignorance. But I don't accept your argument that one person's (or many people's) aggressive ignorance justifies another person's (or many people's) passive ignorance. If that's why somebody is dismissing advanced metrics -- because he's in a snit that other people seem to use them indiscriminately -- then (a) that's intellectually lazy, and (b) given the premise that he hasn't bothered to learn for himself how the advanced metrics work, why is his judgment that other people are using the metrics indiscriminately even credible?

[3and2Fastball]

While they still project Braun's stats to be All-Star level, they are actually predicting him to regress in terms of HR's, BA, and OBP.... I'm a little more optimistic than that as Braun seems smack dab in the middle of his peak years right now....

[StearnsFTW]

Reading comments from people who reflexively dismiss information they don't understand is a waste of time.

 

Amen.

 

Reading the book that Billy Beane wrote is also a waste of time.

[Fear The Chorizo]

then again, posting anything on a message board is a waste of time, so we're all idiots