Rams' Quick and Dirty Top 50 Update

[ramssuperbowl1999]

Rams’ Quick Top 50 With Some Minor Updates

 

Given how the industry is starting to release prospect lists, I want to update mine to incorporate the AFL, some offseason acquisitions, and a little more time to sit back and look at each prospect’s year. I also want to formally graduate Jean Segura, who enjoyed 1 list at the top with a nice asterisk. The big league club needs you Jean, sorry!

 

Everyone is going to get the name, age, league, and position header, plus any relevant stats for the year. Not every prospect is going to get a scouting report, just the big movers/new guys (old reports are in the previous thread here: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=29086).

 

The grades are back from last year. Remember how they are scaled:

 

A – Player has dramatically improved how the industry will perceive his potential major league ability

B – Player has improved how the industry will perceive his potential major league impact

C – Player has not changed how the industry will perceive his major league ability

D – Player has damaged how the industry will perceive his potential major league impact

F – Player has dramatically damaged from how the industry will perceive his major league impact

I – Player has not played enough to conclusively change how the industry will perceive his major league ability

 

The noteworthy thing about these grades is that they are not designed to pander to the top prospects. Tyler Thornburg, for example, had a very nice season. He started off quite well in AA, made a few MLB appearances (albeit, not great), and more than held his own at AAA before ending up as a September callup. That’s absolutely solid progression, but he’s graded at a B-. Why? He didn’t really alter how the industry perceives him that much. He has continued to show durability, but his velocity did fade late into games. His stuff is the same, the results are in line with (his high) expectations, and he got a step closer to the big leagues. That does improve his value, but not dramatically at all.

 

1. Wily Peralta, AAA/MLB, RHP, 23 years old

Stats (AAA): 28 GS, 146.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.83 K/BB, 3.83 FIP

Stats (MLB): 6 G (5 GS), 29.0 IP, 2.48 ERA, 7.14 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.09 K/BB, 2.65 FIP

Grade: D+

 

 

2. Tyler Thornburg, AA/AAA/MLB, RHP, 23 years old

Stats (AA): 13 GS, 75 IP, 3.00 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.96 K/BB, 3.39 FIP

Stats (AAA): 8 GS, 37.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.23 K/BB, 2.51 FIP

Stats (MLB): 8 G (3 GS), 22.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.86 K/BB, 7.07 FIP

Grade: B-

 

 

3. Clint Coulter, AZL, C/1B/DH, 18 years old

Stats (AZL): 49 G, 214 PA, .302/.439/.444, 5 HRs, 3/5 SB/CS, 11 XBHs

Grade: B+

 

 

4. Johnny Hellweg, AA, RHP, 23 years old

Stats (AA): 28 G (23 GS), 139.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.40 K/BB

Grade: B

 

Hellweg gets bumped over Jungmann and Nelson due to a solid AFL campaign and additional reflection on his stuff. While his peripherals were unsustainable, he demonstrated more consistent use of his slider. Further, the year in AAA should give him time to audition for a starter’s job. Ultimately, he gets the nod over Nelson due to continued command struggles for Jimmy and Jungmann because Hellweg has a fallback option of being a dynamite reliever, whereas Jungmann is either a starter or a middle reliever.

 

 

5. Taylor Jungmann, A+, RHP, 22 years old

Stats: 26 GS, 153 IP, 3.53 ERA, 5.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 2.15 K/BB, 3.62 FIP

Grade: C+

 

 

6. Victor Roache, LF, Unassigned, 20 years old

No stats

Grade: I

 

Roache moves up 4 spots, mostly because of what we didn’t hear – he had no health issues during instructionals and can be assumed to be healthy. This is critical, as the would-be top 10 draft pick slid to Milwaukee over concerns with his broken wrist. When healthy, Roache can mash.

 

 

7. Hunter Morris, AA, 1B, 23 years old

Stats (AA): 136 G, 571 PA, .303/.357/.563, 28 HR, 2/1 SB/CS, 74 XBHs

Grade: A

 

Morris moves up mostly on the strength on his great season and his developing walk rate. While his overall AFL performance wasn’t inspiring, he walked at the same rate he did in AA after a month break, showing some real improvement in pitch recognition. The Brewers view him as their 1B of the future, and while I’m a little less optimistic on his overall outlook, he’s making strides.

 

 

8. Jimmy Nelson, A+/AA, RHP, 23 years old

Stats (A+): 13 GS, 81.1 IP, 2.21 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.08 K/BB, 2.81 FIP

Stats (AA): 10 GS, 46.0 IP, 3.91 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 7.2 BB/9, 1.14 K/BB, 4.55 FIP

Grade: B+

 

I dropped Nelson’s grade and his ranking a couple slots because, as amazing as the first part of his season was, he really did raise some flags at the end of the year. First, the shoulder stiffness that kept him out for about a month does knock the notion that he’s as durable as they come. Second, his command in AA and the AFL was just not there. I think an offseason of rest will do him some good, and hopefully he comes back ready to blow the doors off of AA. There’s just a slight reason to pause right now.

 

 

9. Scooter Gennett, AA, 2B, 22 years old

Stats (AA): 133 G, 573 PA, .293/.330/.385, 5 HR, 11/5 SB/CS, 37 XBH

Grade: C-

 

 

10. Ariel Pena, AA, RHP, 23 years old

Stats (AA): 26 GS, 146.2 IP, 3.93 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 2.15 K/BB, 4.4 FIP

Grade: C

 

 

11. Tyrone Taylor, AZL/Helena, CF, 18 years old

Stats (AZL): 8 G, 38 PA, .389/.395/.694, 0 HR, 3/1 SB/CS, 8 XBH

Stats (HEL): 10 G, 45 PA, .385/.467/.641, 2 HR, 3/2 SB/CS, 6 XBH

Grade: A

 

 

12. Mitch Haniger, A, CF/RF, 21 years old

Stats (A): 14 G, 58 PA, .286/.379/.429, 1 HR, 1 SB/0 CS, 5 XBH

Grade: B

 

 

13. Drew Gagnon, A/A+, RHP, 22 years old

Stats (A): 14 GS, 82.2 IP, 2.83 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 3.4 K/BB, 3.37 FIP

Stats (A+): 11 GS, 67 IP, 2.82 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 2.7 K/BB, 3.35 FIP

Grade: A-

 

Gagnon tumbles a little bit, but the fall looks steeper than it actually is. This is reflective of how much deeper the Brewers’ system is, as I still really like him. The key here is his strikeout rate. Will Gagnon miss enough bats to stay out of trouble at AA? Is he really ready for the upper minors? If not, where is the improvement going to come from? He already has solid command of his stuff and throws 4 pitches, so it’s not like polish will be what makes him take that next step. I still love Gagnon as a prospect and think he can be a big league starter, but, like Nelson, there’s reason to step back and think.

 

 

14. Orlando Arcia, SS, HEL, 17 years old

Stats (DSL as a 16 year old): 64 G, 254 PA, .294/.386/.459, 6 HR, 13/4 SB/CS, 23 XBH

Grade: I

 

In 2 years, I feel like he’s going to make this ranking look very, very dumb. This is reflective of the Brewers’ depth right now, but I’ll predict he ends next year in the top 5 whether lots of guys graduate or not.

 

 

15. Mark Rogers, AAA/MLB, RHP, 26 years old

Stats (AAA): 18 GS, 95.1 IP, 4.72 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 1.51 K/BB, 5.12 FIP

Stats (MLB): 7 GS, 39.0 IP, 3.92 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.93 K/BB, 3.83 FIP

Grade: B

 

 

16. Logan Schafer, AAA/MLB, CF, 25 years old

Stats (AAA): 124 G, 513 PA, .278/.332/.438, 11 HR, 16/7 SB/CS, 43 XBH

Stats (MLB): 16 G, 25 PA, .304/.320/.522, 0 HR, 0/1 SB/CS, 3 XBH

Grade: C-

 

 

17. Nick Bucci, ARZ/A+, RHP, 21 years old

Stats (AZL): 4 GS, 11 IP, 1.64 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 0 BB/9, Undefined K/BB, 3.65 FIP

Stats (A+): 6 GS, 31.2 IP, 1.99 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 4.26 BB/9, 2.47 K/BB, 3.80 FIP

Grade: I

 

Nick’s AFL stint was really more of the same as it was in High A – he missed tons of bats and racked up K’s due to no command. Like Jimmy Nelson, an offseason to get healthy is the best medicine here before the showdown with AA. That said, he’s still intriguing since his velocity increase from last year showed up in the AFL. If he can be 91-93, he can start.

 

18. Jim Henderson, AAA/MLB, RHP, 29 years old

Stats (AAA): 35 G (0 GS), 48 IP, 1.69 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 2.55 K/BB, 2.91 FIP

Stats (MLB): 36 G (0 GS) 30.2 IP, 3.52 ERA, 13.2 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 3.46 K/BB, 1.95 FIP

Grade: A+

 

 

19. Chris McFarland, HEL, 2B, 19 years old

Stats (HEL): 72 G, 313 PA, .301/.358/.433, 6 HR, 15/6 SB/CS, 24 XBH

Grade: B

 

 

20. Hiram Burgos, A+/AA/AAA, RHP, 25 years old

Stats (A+): 7 G (6 GS), 41.1 IP, 0.87 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 6.83 K/BB, 2.04 FIP

Stats (AA): 13 GS, 83.1 IP, 1.94 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 2.75 K/BB, 2.94 FIP

Stats (AAA): 8 GS, 46.1 IP, 2.91 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.33 K/BB, 3.85 FIP

Grade: A+

 

 

21. Jorge Lopez, AZL/DSL, RHP, 19 years old

Stats (AZL): 7 G (2 GS), 25.1 IP, 5.33 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.67 K/BB, 4.31 FIP

Stats (DSL): 5 G (3 GS), 22.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 10.3 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 2.60 K/BB, 2.76 FIP

Grade: F

 

I think I was too hard on Lopez, who apparently lost his mechanics this year. While you don’t like hearing that his mechanics were in shambles, the mere fact that we have any reason for his struggles is actually a good thing. An offseason, more instructional work, and another year of pro conditioning should hopefully be the ticket. We’ll see. He’s just as intriguing as he was on draft day, just a few years older.

 

22. Jed Bradley, A+, LHP, 22 years old

Stats (A+): 20 GS, 107.1 IP, 5.53 ERA, 5.0 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 1.40 K/BB, 4.54 FIP

Grade: F

 

There are some people who think Bradley’s performance was all a result of his groin injury early in the year and him being a ‘tough son of a gun’ who pitched through it. I hope they’re right.

 

 

23. Cameron Garfield, A, C, 21 years old

Stats (A): 66 G, 257 PA, .298/.385/.524, 11 HR, 3/1 SB/CS, 29 XBH

Grade: B+

 

 

24. Michael Olmsted, A+/AA, RHP, 25 years old

Stats (A+): 33 G (28 GF), 39.1 IP, 2.29 ERA, 14.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, 7.63 K/BB, 1.19 FIP

Stats (AA): 14 G (12 GF), 20.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 14.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 4.43 K/BB, 1.30 FIP

Grade: A+

 

Scouting Report:

A 6'7", 245 pound beast, Olmsted was a 9th rounder by the Mets in 2007, but blew his arm out in instructionals in 2008. He spent all of 2009 getting it back together, but suddenly found himself unemployed. A season in Japan in 2010 to rebuild his stock was in order, and afterwards the Red Sox gave him a shot after seeing him throw. Of course, the truly amazing part of the story is that Olmsted had hung it up and elected to become a coach before the tryout that may change his life.

 

Olmsted was previously about 89-92, but given his frame and size scouts thought there should be more velocity. In 2012, they were proven right - suddenly Olmsted was hitting 97 on the gun reguarly with great late life and sitting around 94-96. His slider, which formerly was a little loopy, tightened up and became a weapon in its own right with the extra velocity. Given the downward plane on every offering, A+ hitters simply couldn't do anything: Olmsted was immediately inserted in the closer’s role and dominated. A midseason promotion to AA didn't slow him down much at all - while Olmsted walked a few more, his FIP remained in the low 1's and he demonstrated that his stuff will play in the high minors. Provided Olmsted keeps his awesome stuff, an aggressive assignment to Milwaukee might be in order.

 

I feel really confident with 1 aspect of Olmsted’s repertoire: provided the velocity increase is real, he’s going to miss bats at whatever level he’s in. His command will determine whether he is simply a big league reliever or a high leverage guy, but kudos to the entire Brewers staff for bringing in yet another power arm.

 

Grade - A+

In 2 seasons, Olmsted has gone from being out of baseball entirely to on the cusp of the big leagues with potential closer stuff. The Red Sox wanted to keep him, but apparently Olmsted was the odd man out. The rest of the league noticed - Peter Gammons has reported 4+ teams have asked what the heck he was doing on the waiver wire to begin with. This has all the makings of yet another John Axford/Jim Hendersen story.

 

25. Khris Davis, AA/AAA, LF, 24 years old

Stats (AA): 44 G, 154 PA, .383/.484/.641, 8 HR, 2/2 SB/CS, 17 XBH

Stats (AAA): 32 G, 140 PA, .310/.414/.522, 4 HR, 1/0 SB/CS, 16 XBH

Grade: B+

 

I also give Khris Davis a slight bump here because he has continued to defy the odds. Scouts said he wouldn’t hit at AA and above, but he put up a batting average north of .350 across those 2 levels this year with tons of power and walks. He won’t have MLB success in Milwaukee because of some guy named Braun, but he deserves a shot somewhere. If I’m Houston, I’m calling Melvin on him.

 

26. Zach Quintana, AZL, 18 years old, RHP

Stats (AZL): 13 G (4 GS), 43.1 IP, 5.82 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 1.77 K/BB, 3.82 FIP

Grade: C-

 

Quintana might be undersized, but the stuff is legit and I think there’s a tick or two left in his arm. He could be an under-the-radar guy in Low A Wisconsin next year if all breaks right this offseason.

 

 

27. Jose Pena, AZL/HEL, RF, 19 years old

Stats (AZL): 40 G, 183 PA, .299/.350/.527, 5 HR, 1/1 SB/CS, 21 XBH

Stats (HEL): 21 G, 92 PA, .306/.337/.529, 2 HR, 1/1 SB/CS, 10 XBH

Grade: A-

 

28. Yadiel Rivera, A, SS, 20 years old

Stats (A): 127 G, 506 PA, .247/.290/.402, 12 HR,7/3 SB/CS, 43 XBH

Grade: B

 

 

29. Damien Magnifico, HEL, RHP, 21 years old

Stats (HEL): 9 G ( 1 GS), 21.2 IP, 5.82 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 6.2 BB/9, 1.67 K/BB, 4.17 FIP

Grade: C-

 

 

30. David Goforth, A, RHP, 23 years old

Stats (A): 28 GS, 150.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 1.48 K/BB, 4.78 FIP

Grade: C

 

I had knocked Goforth way down in the wake of his mediocre season as a starter, and the more I think about it, the more I realize I’m unfairly punishing him. I can talk about this at more length, but the Brewers’ brass really needs to pull their head out of their bum and shorten him down.

 

 

31. Caleb Gindl, AAA, RF, 23 years old

Stats (AAA): 127 G, 498 PA, .261/.317/.423, 12 HR, 4/1 SB/CS, 44 XBH

Grade: C-

 

 

32. Michael Reed, AA/A+/HEL, CF/RF, 19 years old

Stats (AA): 3 G, 8 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 HR, 0/0 SB/CS, 0 XBH

Stats (A+): 11 G, 41 PA, .281/.425/.281, 0 HR, 3/0 SB/CS, 0 XBH

Stats (HEL): 48 G, 208 PA, .246/.337/.302, 1 HR, 11/1 SB/CS, 7 XBH

Grade: C+

 

Reed gets dropped, partially due to the rise of some other guys (Goforth among them), but also in part due to poor performance in Helena. While he’s only 19 and the Brewers clearly like him (as do I), I expected more out of him. He can bring it back this next year if he shows improvement in A ball, where I would expect him to be assigned.

 

 

33. Kyle Heckathorn, AA, RHP, 24 years old

Stats (AA): 35 G (17 GS, 7 GF), 119.1 IP, 4.75 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.32 K/BB, 3.77 FIP

Grade: C+

 

Heckathorn started the year by starting games and promptly tanked out in AA. As a result, he made a potentially career saving move to the bullpen, where he was far more successful. While he struggled in a small sample in the Arizona Fall League, we finally saw flashes of Heckathorn’s former velocity. The big righty managed to hit 95 mph on his fastball a few times when he elevated it, and was more consistently in the 92-94 mph range. That’s good enough to make him a big league reliever, which is his general projection at this point. While he shouldn’t be an impact reliever, he will help fill out a bullpen and offer a solid 3-pitch mix.

 

 

34. Cody Scarpetta, AA, RHP, 23 years old

No stats this year

Grade: I

 

 

35. Edgardo Rivera, AZL, CF, 18 years old

Stats (AZL) 32 G, 148 PA, .262/.356/.310, 0 HR, 9/1 SB/CS, 6 XBH

Grade: C+

 

 

36. Alan Williams, A+, LHP, 22 years old

Stats (A+): 26 G (12 GF), 35.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.92 K/BB, 2.78 FIP

Grade: B

 

 

37. Josh Prince, AA, CF/UTIL, 24 years old

Stats (AA): 137 G, 596 PA, .251/.346/.360, 7 HR, 41/18 SB/CS, 38 XBH

Stats (AFL): 25 G, 106 PA, .404/.491/.573, 1 HR, 9/4 SB/CS, 11 XBH

Grade: B

 

Scouting Report:

Josh Prince was a former 3rd round SS out of Tulane who dazzled everyone in rookie ball, but never made the full season ball adjustment. Ultimately, he rose up the ladder based on his position (and, quite frankly, we didn’t have anyone else). It appeared that his career was on the way out when the Brewers moved him to CF (where he profiles quite well defensively) and Prince hit a fairly mediocre .251/.346/.360. The walks were nice, but there wasn’t enough there to justify him staying around much longer, and at 24, he was Rule 5 eligible.

 

The Brewers gave him a spot in the AFL to let him audition for a 40-man spot, and man oh man did he respond. Prince lead the league in batting and has secured his place in the organization for the time being. With Logan Schafer virtually assured the 4th OF role in Milwaukee next year, expect Prince to move up to AAA, where he can let us know how much of this outburst is real. His MLB projection is more of a utility guy, since Prince has experience at CF, SS, and 2B with the arm to play anywhere in the OF and possibly even 3B, so there may be value here whether his bat is real or not.

 

 

38. Fautino de Los Santos, AAA, RHP, 26 years old

Stats (AAA): 39 G, 49.2 IP, 5.80 ERA, 10.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 3.00 K/BB, 2.7ish FIP

Grade: C-

 

 

39. Josh Stinson, RHP, AA/MLB, 24 years old

Stats (AA) 29 G (24 GS), 145.1 IP, 3.16 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.28 K/9, 4.27 FIP

Stats (MLB) 6 G (1 GS), 9.1 IP, 0.96 ERA, 2.9 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 0.59 K/BB, 5.45 FIP

Grade: C+

 

 

40. Santo Manzanillo, AA, RHP, 23 years old

Stats (AA): 12 G, 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 6.8 BB/9, 1 K/BB, 5.90 FIP

Grade: D-

 

Manzanillo takes another tumble in these rankings because of his complete inability to be healthy, match his former stuff, and throw strikes (so, in other words, he’s not doing anything right). During the AFL, the former flamethrower who could touch 100 mph and sat at 97 was 92-96 with little movement. His slider flattened out so much Pitch f/x classified it as a 2-seamer. That’s a problem. A healthy Manzanillo could be a dominant force in a big league bullpen, but he might have just been a flash in the pan.

 

 

41. Tyler Wagner, HEL, RHP, 21 years old

Stats (HEL): 14 G (13 GS), 48.2 IP, 7.77 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 2.14 K/BB, 4.41 FIP

Grade: D

 

 

42. Casey Medlen, A+, RHP, 23 years old

Stats (A+): 46 G (0 GS), 54.1 IP, 2.98 ERA, 10.4 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 3.71 K/BB, 2.41 FIP

Grade: B+

 

Scouting Report:

Medlen is an under-the-radar reliever who has continued to climb the ladder since being drafted in the 37th round (!) in 2011. The college reliever was originally drafted as minor league fodder by the organization, but he managed to produce and has made the most of his opportunity. This season, he stepped into the closer’s role for High A Brevard County and had a good deal of success, nabbing 21 saves with a sub-3 ERA and peripherals to match.

 

From a scouting perspective, Medlin combines a lower 90’s fastball and a curve that keeps lower level hitters off balance. He’s listed at 6’0”, 155 (seriously), so it’s actually quite amazing that he can even top 90 mph, much less offer any room for additional velocity. That type of projection makes a middle relief role most applicable, but we’ll see how Medlen does in AA first. I’m expecting some struggles based on his profile of ‘good control/command of 2 decent pitches’, but he’s surprised everyone once already.

 

43. Carlos Belonis, DSL, 17 years old, SS

Stats (DSL) 47 G, 191 PA, .259/.319/.351, 2 HR, 25/9 SB/CS, 10 XBH

Grade: I

 

 

44. Angel Ortega, AZL, SS, 18 years old

Stats (AZL): 46 G, 192 PA, .242/.284/.315, 1 HR, 9/4 SB/CS, 9 XBH

Grade: B-

 

 

45. Eric Arnett, A+, RHP, 24 years old

Stats (A+): 33 G (3 GF), 60.2 IP, 3.26 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 1.97 K/BB, 3.73 FIP

Grade: B

 

 

46. Adam Giacalone, HEL, 1B, 20 years old

Stats (HEL): 69 G, 298 PA, .317/.394/.425, 3 HR, 3/5 SB/CS, 21 XBH

Grade: B

 

 

47. Joel Dicent, AZL, RHP, 20 years old

Stats (AZL): 14 G ( 8 GS), 52.0 IP, 5.19 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 1.43 K/BB, 4.32 FIP

Grade: C-

 

 

48. Gian Rizzo, DSL, RHP, 18 years old

Stats (DSL): 10 G (10 GS): 50.0 IP, 1.08 ERA, 9.4 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 8.67 K/BB, 1.66 FIP

Grade: C+

 

 

49. Jesus Sanchez, AAA/AA, RHP, 24 years old

Stats (AA): 32 G (18 GF), 45.1 IP, 1.59 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 3.15 K/BB, 3.02 FIP

Stats (AAA): 20 G (9 GF), 26.1 IP, 1.71 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.56 K/BB, 2,48 FIP

Grade: B+

 

50. Tommy Toledo, A/A+, RHP, 23 years old

Stats (A), 21 G (13 GF), 37 IP, 1.95 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 2.82 K/BB, 3.55 FIP

Stats (A+) 11 G (3 GF), 19.1 IP, 6.05 ERA, 6.1 K/9, 6.1 BB/9, 1 K/BB, 4.70 FIP

Grade: C-

[ramssuperbowl1999]

I actually feel really good about these rankings, particularly the top 15. I think the Brewers' system is going to break out a little bit in 2013. The fact that there is so much depth here is really nice, especially on the pitching side.

[TooLiveBrew]

As usual, your work is greatly appreciated, rams

[jjkoestler]

Great read, as always. Thanks.

[jjgott]

How did Peralta damage his expectations so much?

[CheezWizHed]

How did Peralta damage his expectations so much?

 

I would guess these two numbers are the main issue:

Stats (AAA): 28 GS, 146.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.83 K/BB, 3.83 FIP

 

But I would think that even his small sample stint at the MLB level would temper that some, since it was quite a positive step for him:

Stats (MLB): 6 G (5 GS), 29.0 IP, 2.48 ERA, 7.14 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.09 K/BB, 2.65 FIP

[JohnBriggs12]

How did Peralta damage his expectations so much?

 

I would guess these two numbers are the main issue:

Stats (AAA): 28 GS, 146.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.83 K/BB, 3.83 FIP

 

But I would think that even his small sample stint at the MLB level would temper that some, since it was quite a positive step for him:

Stats (MLB): 6 G (5 GS), 29.0 IP, 2.48 ERA, 7.14 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.09 K/BB, 2.65 FIP

 

I don't think he damaged his expectations either unless your expectations went in very, very high. His seasonal numbers at AAA are skewed by one horrible month (May) from which he rebounded and he threw the ball very well in the majors. If anything, the fact that he recovered from a bad stretch is a plus and something he can draw on in his career.

[TheCrew07]

I don't think he damaged his expectations either unless your expectations went in very, very high. His seasonal numbers at AAA are skewed by one horrible month (May) from which he rebounded and he threw the ball very well in the majors. If anything, the fact that he recovered from a bad stretch is a plus and something he can draw on in his career.

 

Well said JB12.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

How did Peralta damage his expectations so much?

 

I would guess these two numbers are the main issue:

Stats (AAA): 28 GS, 146.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.83 K/BB, 3.83 FIP

 

But I would think that even his small sample stint at the MLB level would temper that some, since it was quite a positive step for him:

Stats (MLB): 6 G (5 GS), 29.0 IP, 2.48 ERA, 7.14 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 2.09 K/BB, 2.65 FIP

 

I don't think he damaged his expectations either unless your expectations went in very, very high. His seasonal numbers at AAA are skewed by one horrible month (May) from which he rebounded and he threw the ball very well in the majors. If anything, the fact that he recovered from a bad stretch is a plus and something he can draw on in his career.

Take a look at his 2011 stats. After 30 IP of 2 ERA ball at AAA in 2011, he shows up at puts up ERAs of 6 and 7 the next year.

 

If that's not failing to meet expectations, I honestly don't know what is. The expectation for Peralta was for him to dominate AAA hitters and be a Super 2 callup.

 

He ended his season on a very high note with some good big league starts, however. Hence, being ranked #1.

[trwi7]

It was only 30 innings. Just like his awful May was 30 innings. Nobody should have expected him to pitch to a 2 ERA in Nashville and nobody should have expected him to pitch to a 9 ERA in May this year in Nashville.

[CheezWizHed]

Based on Ram's grading system, remember that a D+ is only two steps below "Met Expectations" ©. So perhaps your remembering your 8th grade English teacher and the resulting punishments from your parents. Here a D+ is a disappointment, but not a disaster from Peralta.

 

Second, his time at AAA was a disappointment last year. One main statistic was his calling card last year:

2008: 2.9 BB/9

2009: 4.0

2010: 3.9

2011: 3.5

2012: 4.8

Peralta has been slowly improving his control year after year, but took a large step backwards last year and his other results suffered because of it.

 

As I said in my other post, his MLB performance was very encouraging so it tempers that a little bit. (I was actually shocked he did so well in the MLB given his AAA control issue).

 

So given Ram's grading system, I don't think a D+ is all that far off. At minimum, its a C- considering the whole year.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Wily Peralta is my breakout player of 2013, based on what I've seen from him last season. I have high expectations for this kid. It wouldn't surprise me at all if in a couple years from now he's better than Gallardo. That small bad stretch (hurdle) he overcame was "huge" for his development as a Starting pitcher. "Huge."

[torts]

kind of surprised you have Birgos down at 20

[ramssuperbowl1999]

kind of surprised you have Birgos down at 20

Soft-tossing, command-based, right-handed, one year wonder (as of now) who saw his peripherals get worse as he moved up the ladder.

 

That's pretty high for him. If he fails as a starter, he isn't an MLB player since he doesn't have the velocity or secondary stuff to fill out a bullpen.

[pogokat]

thought i'd sticky this because several were interested in reviving the power 50 discussion, and maybe reviving a formal power 50---let's use this thread to see what we want to do here

[ramssuperbowl1999]

thought i'd sticky this because several were interested in reviving the power 50 discussion, and maybe reviving a formal power 50---let's use this thread to see what we want to do here

I'm planning to update this throughout the year with maybe 2 rounds of full scouting reports and a monthly rankings tinkering. Hope that helps give you guys some direction.

 

I know people are kind of critical of my rankings of low-ceiling, close-to-the-majors guys like Burgos, but I hope most people don't have any major gripes.

[trwi7]

Hard to be too critical when you put in the time for a top 50.

[Bombers]

I know I always look forward to the Power 50's and most recently Rams updates. I do not have in-depth knowledge of our farm system but I love hearing about what is going on. The analysis given on this site is 2nd to none so I appreciate the time dedicated to keeping the Power 50 / Discussion alive. Thanks to those involved.

[Roderick]

thought i'd sticky this because several were interested in reviving the power 50 discussion, and maybe reviving a formal power 50---let's use this thread to see what we want to do here

I'm planning to update this throughout the year with maybe 2 rounds of full scouting reports and a monthly rankings tinkering. Hope that helps give you guys some direction.

 

I know people are kind of critical of my rankings of low-ceiling, close-to-the-majors guys like Burgos, but I hope most people don't have any major gripes.

 

Ignore anyone that is too critical. Let them come out with their own work.

 

Personally, I appreciate your efforts and I will take any opinions on our farm system as I don't have the time to scour reports, etc.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

I'll be updating this in light of the minor league rosters and assignments. Expect Orlando Arcia, Tyrone Taylor, Michael Reed, and Jorge Lopez to rise.

[paul253]

Jorge Lopez rise? Really?

[ramssuperbowl1999]

^ Check the timestamp on the message. This was right after Lopez was assigned to Low A, which did do good things for his prospect stock.

 

Obviously, his performance in Low A erased any of that positive momentum.

[homer]

Tommy Toledo at 50???? Bwuahahahahaha!

 

Just kidding.

[Bombers]

As aways, thanks for providing Rams. Your posts are much appreciated.

 

I feel like our top 50 is starting to resemble something of a solid minor league system. I am particularly interested in Roache from what I have heard about him.

[bork]

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/index.jsp?c_id=mil

 

Time for a new top prospect. Peralta is over 50 innings, so he graduates off the list. MLB has Thornburg as their #1 now.