Looking Through a Crystal Ball

[PrinceFielderx1]

TLB,

 

It's not all about prospects, so I believe you are missing a key point to a potential deal, which is what Major League talent will be included in the deal, which narrows down the teams able to make a deal like this, and perhaps narrows it way down. Seattle will demand major league talent along with prospects in a deal for Felix Hernandez.

[TooLiveBrew]

TLB,

 

It's not all about prospects, so I believe you are missing a key point to a potential deal, which is what Major League talent will be included in the deal, which narrows down the teams able to make a deal like this, and perhaps narrows it way down. Seattle will demand major league talent along with prospects in a deal for Felix Hernandez.

Seattle isn't going to be looking for one-yr. stopgaps like Hart & Gomez if they demand MLB talent. The package you proposed is a classic quantity-for-quality deal, in which the pieces coming from our side are being heavily overvalued. The kind of MLB player they'd likely be interested in would be a Lucroy (for example), since he's under salary control for quite some time.

 

Basically, ask yourself if you'd trade Braun for one year of Hart+one year of Gomez+Peralta+others from the farm. Because that's the caliber of player you're talking about in Hernández.

[PrinceFielderx1]

TLB,

 

It's not all about prospects, so I believe you are missing a key point to a potential deal, which is what Major League talent will be included in the deal, which narrows down the teams able to make a deal like this, and perhaps narrows it way down. Seattle will demand major league talent along with prospects in a deal for Felix Hernandez.

Seattle isn't going to be looking for one-yr. stopgaps like Hart & Gomez if they demand MLB talent. The package you proposed is a classic quantity-for-quality deal, in which the pieces coming from our side are being heavily overvalued. The kind of MLB player they'd likely be interested in would be a Lucroy (for example), since he's under salary control for quite some time.

 

Basically, ask yourself if you'd trade Braun for one year of Hart+one year of Gomez+Peralta+others from the farm. Because that's the caliber of player you're talking about in Hernández.

 

I believe you are correct, TLB. However, the Brewers could include Lucroy in a deal for Hernandez, because they have a solid back-up in Maldonado, Just like they could deal Hart and Gomez, because they have solid backups in Schafer and Gamel. My general point was that the Brewers would in my opinion be one of the very few teams able to give the Mariners what they want in a Hernandez deal, because they have both the Prospects and the MLB talent to offer. The Brewers could very well get a deal done.

[TooLiveBrew]

So I was going off of your earlier mention of Hart+Gomez+Prospects. Is it now Hart+Gomez+Lucroy+Prospects?

 

I think you're assuming a lot about what Jack Z. would want if you think the inclusions of Hart & Gomez are going to help separate the Brewers from the rest of what other MLB teams could offer. I think the Brewers getting a deal done would be one of the longer shots in MLB, largely because 1) I don't think a rebuilding SEA team would value one season each of Hart & Gomez very much, and 2) many other orgs. have much better farm systems. The M's should be looking for elite prospects in return for trading away the face of their franchise, not guys they'll control for less than 6 seasons.

[PrinceFielderx1]

So I was going off of your earlier mention of Hart+Gomez+Prospects. Is it now Hart+Gomez+Lucroy+Prospects?

 

I think you're assuming a lot about what Jack Z. would want if you think the inclusions of Hart & Gomez are going to help separate the Brewers from the rest of what other MLB teams could offer. I think the Brewers getting a deal done would be one of the longer shots in MLB, largely because 1) I don't think a rebuilding SEA team would value one season each of Hart & Gomez very much, and 2) many other orgs. have much better farm systems. The M's should be looking for elite prospects in return for trading away the face of their franchise, not guys they'll control for less than 6 seasons.

 

Not just those players but I could see the Brewers throwing in cash, which other teams might not be able to do. I don't see it as 1 season of Hart for the Mariners or 1 season of Gomez, because I could see them re-signing one or both of them, making it 3-5 years of control instead of just 1 season. The Mariners need proven MLB talent that is cost controlled, which Lucroy gives them that, and Hart is a proven MLB hitter who will hit 30 HR's, which I don't care what anybody says, that kind of a hitter doesn't grow on trees, so that's 2 above average hitters that the Mariners "desperately" need, that they can afford to keep. I don't believe any team (other than the Brewers) can afford to give up that kind of MLB offensive talent plus prospects for Felix Hernandez, and not take a huge hit offensively.

[Kelbysdaddy]

dude, you should really just stop.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers are one of the lowest-ranking teams in MLB when it comes to cash, especially now with the new huge TV deals. Imo cash also would be very unlikely to sway Jack Z. in this case, and on top of that the Brewers have near the least possible amount to offer.

 

Even if you see the M's extending Gomez & Hart, that's not what SEA would be trading for -- they'd be merely trading for one season. Would you trade me a $10 bill for a $5 bill if I told you that you could possibly take that $5 to the casino & turn it into $50?

 

If you're talking about including Lucroy, then I think you might have a jumping-off point to start to get the M's to listen... but, personally, I really don't want to trade Luc for just two seasons of Hernández -- we took the short-term path with Greinke & wound up in the current state of affairs.

 

I just think you're viewing this possible negotiation through very Brewers-friendly glasses.

[brewcrewdue80]

With whom the Brewers have, the Mariners have no need for Gomez, and they don't need Lucroy. They have the best Catching prospect in Zunino who will be up any time the Mariners decide to start his clock. The only player I've seen fit for them is Hart and or Gallardo.

And when it comes to acquiring Hernandez, it would take Braun on the offer. No other Brewers player can start the trade conversation for Felix. Lucroy and Segura may have started a conversation under different circumstances, but Zunino and Franklin are both higher ceiling prospects than Lucroy and Segura and that's the positions Lucroy and Segura happen to play at.

If Weeks had 3years of a more efficient contract than he'd be in the mix for a trade (with others) that could acquire Hernandez. If Weeks had 3 years of a more efficient contract he wouldn't be part of any trades by the Brewers though.

 

Anyway, Mariners lost out on Upton, and the offer was one of the big three, Franklin,Pryor and Charlie Furbush. Hart imo isn't worth one of the big 3, Furbush not a need by Milwaukee and that leaves Franklin and or Pryor. Both? for Hart?

I think Jack Z got lucky Upton invoked his no trade clause as losing one of those big three and Franklin really had to hurt Seattle's future.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The Brewers are one of the lowest-ranking teams in MLB when it comes to cash, especially now with the new huge TV deals. Imo cash also would be very unlikely to sway Jack Z. in this case, and on top of that the Brewers have near the least possible amount to offer.

 

Even if you see the M's extending Gomez & Hart, that's not what SEA would be trading for -- they'd be merely trading for one season. Would you trade me a $10 bill for a $5 bill if I told you that you could possibly take that $5 to the casino & turn it into $50?

 

If you're talking about including Lucroy, then I think you might have a jumping-off point to start to get the M's to listen... but, personally, I really don't want to trade Luc for just two seasons of Hernández -- we took the short-term path with Greinke & wound up in the current state of affairs.

 

I just think you're viewing this possible negotiation through very Brewers-friendly glasses.

 

Actually, it doesn't matter if they have the lowest payroll. There are cases of teams not willing to eat salary, because they can't, and we aren't talking about the Brewers here.

 

The trade can be contingent on re-signing Hart, which wont be an issue for them at all. Small obstacle.

 

To give up this much for Hernandez is a big decision.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm not talking about payroll, I was talking about what you referred to -- cash.

 

I feel like every time I refute part of this idea, you say you meant something else... so carry on. Obviously you don't need any information, you've already made up your mind.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'm not talking about payroll, I was talking about what you referred to -- cash.

 

I feel like every time I refute part of this idea, you say you meant something else... so carry on. Obviously you don't need any information, you've already made up your mind.

 

We are talking about the same thing. The reason why I originally said the Brewers could send cash over for him is because they have the payroll flexibility to do it, which not all teams can and do have that flexibility to be able to do that. Yes, if big market team is competing with us for him they obviously have more cash, but I doubt there will be a bidding war over how much cash one sends over to the Mariners. It will be mostly about talent.

[monty57]

If Seattle is trading away Felix Hernandez, then they are going to want a huge pile of elite young talent, and there are lots of teams that would be much better trading partners for Felix Hernandez then the Brewers. I don't know when the new lists come out, but going into 2012, Baseball America had the Brewers' farm ranked # 26, and Baseball Prospectus had it ranked #28. While things have changed over the past season, I'd have to guess that we're still in the bottom half. There are plenty of teams with more young talent to offer. Throw in that our farm's biggest strength is in pitching, but none of our young pitchers are nearly as highly touted as Seattle's crop of young pitching, and I really don't see a match.

 

However, Hart may interest Seattle if we were looking for prospects. Aoki may also draw interest from Seattle, as he's very affordable for the next two seasons, and would cater to Seattle's Japanese fan base. I'm not looking to trade Aoki, but I would certainly do it for the right price.

 

As to the original poster's thought of looking into the crystal ball a year into the future to potentially trade Gallardo to Seattle so that Seattle could have a 1-2 of Hernandez/Gallardo, a lot would have to happen over the next year. I don't see it being likely, but I see it more feasible from the Brewers' standpoint than from the Mariners'. If the Brewers' young pitching progresses, they will eventually be in a position where they'll have "too much" pitching, so trading guys away will be necessary. I don't know if we'll be there by 2014, but it'd be nice if we were. If they could land some of Seattle's top prospects for Gallardo, I'd probably be pretty happy with that deal. Seattle probably won't be ready to go "all in" going into next year, but they'll be more ready on the pitching side of things than they will on the hitting side of things, so if by some chance they were going all-in, they'd be more likely to trade for a hitter than a pitcher.

 

Honestly, I'm beginning to think it unlikely Melvin will ever again trade away a good player until they only have a couple of months on their contract, so realistically, I'd say the odds of Gallardo and Hernandez being a 1-2 punch for the Mariners or the Brewers are somewhere around 0%.

[torts]

this offseason isnt even over yet and you're already thinking about two years from now? couldnt ya have waited a month until spring training to start this?

[logan82]

Aoki traded would open up a spot for Gamel. I would love to see that if we got a decent player back. I think Gamel is going to steal playing time away from Aoki as the season progresses.

[endaround]

Aoki traded would open up a spot for Gamel. I would love to see that if we got a decent player back. I think Gamel is going to steal playing time away from Aoki as the season progresses.

 

I really doubt that happens. Aoki fits too neatly in what Roenicke wants.

[logan82]

Aoki traded would open up a spot for Gamel. I would love to see that if we got a decent player back. I think Gamel is going to steal playing time away from Aoki as the season progresses.

 

I really doubt that happens. Aoki fits too neatly in what Roenicke wants.

Unfortunately.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Aoki traded would open up a spot for Gamel. I would love to see that if we got a decent player back. I think Gamel is going to steal playing time away from Aoki as the season progresses.

 

I really doubt that happens. Aoki fits too neatly in what Roenicke wants.

Unfortunately.

 

That's not unfortunate at all in my opinion. Aoki is a very very good leadoff hitter and hitter in general, and if he can duplicate what he did last season or do better than we will forget all about Gamel in RF. Also should the Brewers re-sign Hart, Gamel wont have a position on the team and imo will likely be packaged in some trade deal, because I doubt he will be a bench player and he wont have a starting position in the team.

[paul253]

Gamel has absolutely no trade value and never will unless he establishes himself as an every day player. There may be a team like Seattle or Houston that might give him a chance because what do they have to lose but even so you'd be lucky to get a AAA reliever for him. I think he stays with us until we eventually release him or let him walk in FA.

 

I think Aoki did a fine job once he moved into the leadoff spot but I'm hoping Schafer is able to claim that role in 2014.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Gamel has absolutely no trade value and never will unless he establishes himself as an every day player. There may be a team like Seattle or Houston that might give him a chance because what do they have to lose but even so you'd be lucky to get a AAA reliever for him. I think he stays with us until we eventually release him or let him walk in FA.

 

I think Aoki did a fine job once he moved into the leadoff spot but I'm hoping Schafer is able to claim that role in 2014.

 

You might be correct with what they do with Gamel. It's just hard for me to see Gamel stuck on the bench and I'm sure it's hard for the Brewers as well since they know his potential as a starter, but Aoki has been really good and he's super cheap. Don't get me wrong it's good to have all of this talent, especially on the bench, but I'd bet that if the Brewers get a good trade offer and the team wants Gamel included in packaged deal, before they make a deal, then Gamel in my opinion is so gone.

 

I have high expectations for Schafer as well, but I actually believe that the Brewers will let Gomez walk, because they have Schafer waiting in the wings, so he will play CF, not RF, in my honest opinion.

[brewcrewdue80]

this offseason isnt even over yet and you're already thinking about two years from now? couldnt ya have waited a month until spring training to start this?

 

Yeah Torts I am thinking ahead. One, it makes the suggested moves plausible. Two, if you don't think every GM in Baseball isn't thinking 2years ahead of now, if not beyond, well, now you know they are.

 

It didn't get any reaction but, the NYYankees are fixing their luxury tax situation by 2014 season for a reason. That 2014 FA Pitcher class is going to be whopper if contracts aren't extended. And I expect to see 30-35mil a year contracts handed out by NY to any of the gems that hit FA.

 

So, when Seattle owns a guy like Felix one of those gems who just can't be kept on Seattle's payroll, thinking of how if you are them, how do you set your team up for the final 2years you have of King Felix? What's your weakness? Strengths? How to fix them?

 

When I look at Gallardo's contract situation, I see 2014 and a 2015 option. Felix lasts through 2014. I have 3 of the best arms in my farm system all about to taste playing time in the Bigs. I have two bats in my farm system soon to make an impact. I'll lose one of those pieces for a Gallardo if not two. So, let's dream ahead....Felix,Gallardo, Walker?Hultzen? Paxton? and or Pryor to fill my staff? The lessor of the four prospects in 2013 performance likely the one I ship to Milw.

I go for it in 2014. Do I miss? Were my pitchers just not ready for that moment for 2014? Now I lose Felix. But still have Gallardo, and 2015 may be the year those arms reach full potential. My window doesn't close on 2014 because Gallardo is here for 2015.

 

See how that works? The idea to trade for Gallardo, is in the idea that he doesn't just play for Seattle with Felix for a 1year window but a 2nd year with all the remaining top 5 prospects having gotten a full season or two under their belts to repeat a SEA run in 2015.

 

Going to add that with the Yankees luxury tax payroll scrinching these next two seasons, to me, is why Toronto and KC have made their offseason moves. I think it also coincides with Boston deal with LAD in 2012 ruining that teams potential in these two seasons as well. Texas losing Hamilton, Angels losing all those pitchers. You're looking at this window of opportunity where on paper I don't see a surefire Division win by those 4teams. So, make a few drastic moves by two struggling franchises and turn them in to something your city hasn't had in a long while.

[monty57]

Re: Seattle trading for Gallardo

 

It would be akin to Melvin trading for Marcum and Greinke to take advantage of when the Brewers had Fielder/Braun. Like Toronto trading away Marcum (their opening day starter the previous season), the Brewers could have enough young arms to allow for them to trade away Gallardo after the 2013 season. It would take a really good return to get the Brewers to trade him, but look what Seattle was willing to give up for Upton. GMs/owners get greedy if they think they have a shot at a title, so it's plausible.

 

However, Melvin doesn't seem capable of trading away a good player, even if in-house options are available, until the team is 10+ games back at the deadline and the player is going to walk in free agency. In my opinion, Melvin would be more likely to move starting pitchers to the bullpen, keep MLB-ready guys in AAA or trade away "lesser" starters like Estrada or Fiers then he is to trade away Gallardo with two years of control left.

[brewcrewdue80]

Coming back to this:

 

Seattle.

 

Dear Seattle:

I can't help but notice you're having an interest in Justin Upton. Clearly it's due to a complete lack of OF depth coming up in your system.

Meanwhile your Infield depth and Pitching Depth is gaining quite a bit of momentum.

 

Well, I would like to exhibit to you one Carlos Gomez. He's a 5tool guy. Super fast with elite Defense. Something I'm sure calling Safeco home would greatly appreciate. Looking over your roster situation and prospects I wonder if we can work some kind of deal.

I would propose a deal involving Gomez for 1 of either T. Walker. or D. Hultzen. I would also propose trading either Nick Franklin or Brad Miller to us in the deal as well as Tyler Pike. I am willing to part with Scooter Gennett to be a reserve 2b behind your current 2b Ackley.

 

I believe you will find Gomez to be a heckuva CF for these next 3years and potentially beyond if you extend a deal with him. I'd also be certain he would fit the bill for a QO if you were to lose him to Free Agency so in reality you gain another 1st rd pick when you lose him. Seeing as your OF prospects are baron maybe 3 years from now that will have changed and the service you get from Carlos won't be needed then.

 

Either way, I think this is a very good deal for both clubs filling needs each has. Well, at least the Brewers hope so, we know you are getting a MLB All Star Player. We hope to get an All Star year or two from the prospects we attain.

[brewmann04]

I have to wonder if the Boston GM is on the phone to DM to see what reliever is on the block.