Looking Through a Crystal Ball

[brewcrewdue80]

Fun stuff to dream of for this topic. Read an article on Disciples of Uecker on the need to extend Gallardo soon.

Remembering the upcoming 2014/15 Starting Pitchers who will be up for FA should they not get an extension made me wonder on Gallardo's contract ending 2014 barring picking up the option for 2015.

Then I thought with the number of SPs coming up through the system what the possibility of entertaining trade phone calls from teams who want Gallardo to pair with the likes of Verlander,Hernandez,Shields,Halladay,Cueto before they depart to FA. What struck me was thinking about pairing Felix with Gallardo for 2014. Seattle would then also have Walker and Hultzen with 1year experience in them as well. And they have Paxton or Pryor who could be their 5th man or obviously another outside source.

If, Walker and Hultzen meet expectations for 2014 paired with Gallardo and Hernandez just how great would those 4 be? Obviously Seattle needs some bats in the lineup to pair with the staff. I look forward to the day Felix pitches in the post-season and Maybe 2014 with Gallardo is it!

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think any decision should be or needs to be made for another year on Gallardo. Lets first see what we have in Peralta, Rogers, Fiers after a major league full season and where guys like Jungmann, Thornburg, Hellweg, Burgos, Nelson etc. are after another year developing. It will be a lot clearer if there's a future ace in that group or if all these guys are at best mid rotation types.

 

Other than extending Gallardo or paying a ton for a FA, there's 2 other ways of getting top starters. One is developing them. The other is accumulating enough arms and prospects to deal for one ala Greinke a couple years ago. The latter two methods are works in progress and another year is needed to see where they are at.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm with you on not doing anything with Gallardo this year. My scenario would play out after this next season where Both Milwaukee and Seattle see what their young arms are capable of. Then for 2014 If Seattle's front office decides the payday Felix has forthcoming is just beyond their means but still wanting to make a Playoff push for his last year acquire another guy like Gallardo. It'd be an all or nothing 1year run for Seattle. But not crippling since they have a nucleus of guys to continue with beyond that year. As I stated in the Hart trade proposals, Seattle doesn't have any contract obligations beyond Felix and 2014. There is the ability to acquire Gallardo's contract, a hitter or two via FA and have their shot in 2014. Whether they pick up Gallardo's option or not is up to them. I just think Seattle is likely to do some Brewer like extensions to Walker,Hultzen,Zunino or Franklin a year or so after they perform at the ML level. But, Felix who let's face it will get Grienke money+ and having a 26-28MM contract on a team with payroll limits around 85 to 95mil like Milw would just have a hard time justifying signing Felix to 5yrs or more at that price.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Felix Hernandez is probably the one player I'd trade Hart to acquire at mid-season. Heck if Gomez starts out strong and basically picks up where he left off last season, I'd trade them both for him, and include some of our top prospects to make a deal happen. I really like Gomez and think he and Hart play significant roles to the offense, but that's just how much I want King Felix. Bring up Logan Schafer to play CF and give 1B to Gamel, and if he struggles hopefully Hunter Morris is doing well. Plus down the line Josh Prince might be able to bring what Gomez brings to the line-up, speed, and good defense, but with a contact bat.

 

I wouldn't trade Gallardo for him. Pitching for pitching isn't what Seattle wants. They want offense. Likely more than 1 player. I have a strong feeling that at mid-season, the Brewers might just have enough top excess offense to make this happen.

 

For the record, I think the Brewers have had their eye on Felix Hernandez for years. I have no proof of this but we all know how they like to acquire the big pitcher available at mid-season to put them over the edge.

[trwi7]

For the record, I think the Brewers have had their eye on Felix Hernandez for years.

 

Really going out on a limb there. The Brewers and every other team.

[endaround]

The only way Seattle doesn't extend Hernandez is because Hernandez wants free agency.

 

As to Gallardo, wait to see if last year was an aberration or the continuation of a downward trend.

[paul253]

Felix Hernandez is probably the one player I'd trade Hart to acquire at mid-season.

 

The one guy? The Mariners would laugh at us with that offer, even if we included Gomez. I think either Hultzen, Walker or Paxton would a tremendous get for one year of Corey Hart.

[markedman5]

I think I'd also be open to trading Hart for Verlander but let me think about it for a few minutes.......

 

Ok..... I'm willing to do it.

[Ennder]

The only way Seattle doesn't extend Hernandez is because Hernandez wants free agency.

 

As to Gallardo, wait to see if last year was an aberration or the continuation of a downward trend.

 

Downward trend? Not sure how you are evaluating pitching but he has more or less been stagnant for 4 years now. Nothing about his past 4 seasons makes me think anything but statistical noise in any single category. He has been one of the steadier pitchers in baseball.

[endaround]

The only way Seattle doesn't extend Hernandez is because Hernandez wants free agency.

 

As to Gallardo, wait to see if last year was an aberration or the continuation of a downward trend.

 

Downward trend? Not sure how you are evaluating pitching but he has more or less been stagnant for 4 years now. Nothing about his past 4 seasons makes me think anything but statistical noise in any single category. He has been one of the steadier pitchers in baseball.

 

His strike out rate is down from 2009. He was hit incredibly hard last year to a tune of a tERA of 4.44 with only a really high strand rate saving his ERA. His fastball velocity dipped 1 mph last year. There are large warning signs.

[Ennder]

His K% is almost exactly the same as 2011 though. His fastball velocity is within completely normal variation and most players do lose velocity with age even as they improve as pitchers. tERA is a pretty awful stat and it is mostly catching the fact he had a spike in HR/FB% which is almost always a fluke given the sample sizes we are talking here. It stinks that his control gains from 2011 didn't hold but this is not a pitcher on a downward trend in any way. I'm sure the projection systems which look at all these factors and not just ERA will project him about the same as he has been the past couple of years because his skills have been almost completely stagnant with only small year to year variations none of which have stuck long term.

[sheetskout]

There are some rather small warning signs.

 

Fixed. Gallardo is still a 200K, 200IP, K/IP power pitcher.

[PrinceFielderx1]

For the record, I think the Brewers have had their eye on Felix Hernandez for years.

 

Really going out on a limb there. The Brewers and every other team.

 

The team most likely to get him should he become available this season is the Brewers. Sorry, forgot to add that part.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Felix Hernandez is probably the one player I'd trade Hart to acquire at mid-season.

 

The one guy? The Mariners would laugh at us with that offer, even if we included Gomez. I think either Hultzen, Walker or Paxton would a tremendous get for one year of Corey Hart.

 

Yes. The one guy.

[monty57]

Felix Hernandez is probably the one player I'd trade Hart to acquire at mid-season.

 

The one guy? The Mariners would laugh at us with that offer, even if we included Gomez. I think either Hultzen, Walker or Paxton would a tremendous get for one year of Corey Hart.

 

Yes. The one guy.

 

So if the Angels call and offer Trout, or the Nationals call and offer Harper or Strasburg, you're not making the deal? I think you have way, way too high of expectations for Mr Hart.

 

As to the topic at hand, as others have said, we need to see what happens this year with Gallardo and our other pitchers as to what the future holds. I hope we'll be able to start cycling our pitchers up through the system. I'd expect that at this time next year, we will have "too many" starting pitchers, and if Estrada has a 2013 season in line with how he's pitched so far as a starter, we'll look to trade him.

 

I hope we don't have to extend Gallardo. I hope that when the time comes we will be in a position that we can trade him without destroying the team. The best way for that to happen will be for our farm to produce good pitching.

[paul253]

Yes. The one guy.

 

I knew from the Corey Hart thread that you weren't in favor of trading him but this statement is absurd. You are seriously overestimating Corey Hart's value. I can think of at least 4 guys on the Detroit Tigers alone I'd trade him for.

The team most likely to get him should he become available this season is the Brewers. Sorry, forgot to add that part.

 

The Brewers farm system is still in the lower third of the league. I don't see how you can possibly believe this. Do you think the Mariners are going to trade one of the 3 best pitchers in baseball for a package built around Wily Peralta and Scooter Gennett? There are any number of teams that could blow any Brewer offer out of the water if they wanted to, especially the Rangers.

 

As far a Gallardo goes I think the development of the Brewers starters over the next two years will determine what happens to him. I like the options we have coming up but we still seem to be lacking the #1 and #2 potentials. If multiple prospects have success I think we can allow Gallardo to walk with a QO. If not we are going to have to extend him again.

[Kelbysdaddy]

yeah- princefielderx1 is off to a heck of a start for bf.nets funniest poster of 2013 award.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Felix Hernandez is probably the one player I'd trade Hart to acquire at mid-season.

 

The one guy? The Mariners would laugh at us with that offer, even if we included Gomez. I think either Hultzen, Walker or Paxton would a tremendous get for one year of Corey Hart.

 

Yes. The one guy.

 

So if the Angels call and offer Trout, or the Nationals call and offer Harper or Strasburg, you're not making the deal? I think you have way, way too high of expectations for Mr Hart.

 

 

Will never happen.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Yes. The one guy.

 

I knew from the Corey Hart thread that you weren't in favor of trading him but this statement is absurd. You are seriously overestimating Corey Hart's value. I can think of at least 4 guys on the Detroit Tigers alone I'd trade him for.

The team most likely to get him should he become available this season is the Brewers. Sorry, forgot to add that part.

 

The Brewers farm system is still in the lower third of the league. I don't see how you can possibly believe this. Do you think the Mariners are going to trade one of the 3 best pitchers in baseball for a package built around Wily Peralta and Scooter Gennett? There are any number of teams that could blow any Brewer offer out of the water if they wanted to, especially the Rangers.

 

As far a Gallardo goes I think the development of the Brewers starters over the next two years will determine what happens to him. I like the options we have coming up but we still seem to be lacking the #1 and #2 potentials. If multiple prospects have success I think we can allow Gallardo to walk with a QO. If not we are going to have to extend him again.

 

The Brewers farm system is much better than people give it credit for and will be even better by around June of this season. It's just fine. The Brewers along with the Rangers will in my opinion be in competition for Felix Hernandez. Why? They both have the top offenses in baseball in their respective leagues, and that's what the Mariners want, offense.

[fleehaw]

The Brewers farm system is much better than people give it credit for and will be even better by around June of this season. It's just fine. The Brewers along with the Rangers will in my opinion be in competition for Felix Hernandez. Why? They both have the top offenses in baseball in their respective leagues, and that's what the Mariners want, offense.

 

Yes, but unlike the Rangers, the Brewers do not have young, cost-controlled for many years, offense talent that is or near major league ready that they'd be willing to trade. Besides Braun, what package of Brewers offensive players would realistically bring back Felix?

 

The way the Brewers have their prospects laid out, I think you have it backwards. With the potential surplus of pitching that they could have in the upcoming years, they will be looking to trade some of their veteran pitchers for young, cost-controlled, offense talent. Similar to what the Rays have done.

[monty57]

Will never happen.

 

I know. Neither will Hart for Felix Hernandez. As you know, I'm all for trading Hart if we can get a good return, but he's not nearly enough to bring Hernandez back. Plus, we're woefully poor in position prospects to sweeten the deal, and none of our pitching prospects would be close to as good as the pitching prospects they already have, so I don't see a fit.

 

However, if Melvin can get Jack Z to drink enough Molson's that he'll sign a Hernandez-for-Hart deal, then I'm all for it. I just think Melvin would have to add an "I'll hire you back when the Mariners fire you" clause in the contract.

[TooLiveBrew]

For the record, I think the Brewers have had their eye on Felix Hernandez for years.

 

Really going out on a limb there. The Brewers and every other team.

 

The team most likely to get him should he become available this season is the Brewers. Sorry, forgot to add that part.

No. The Brewers have a lower-half farm system, & a dozen teams or so would relatively easily be able to outbid them with prospects.

[PrinceFielderx1]

This topic will so have to be revisited around June/July.

[brewcrewdue80]

Seems to have missed my crystal ball projections.

 

It's not the Brewers trading for Felix. Its the Mariners trading for Gallardo. A go allin year from Seattle before seeing Felix depart. At this moment in time I just don't see the Brewers trading For a stud player. They need to trade away their stud players with upcoming ending contracts.

 

Looking ahead to a Capable group of 3s and 4s rotation and sending away Gallardo for 2014 or mid season 2014. I was just coinciding that with Seattle's window of owning Felix coming to an end and making a move for another ace with an expiring contract. I just think there's a high chance the team pushes to get in the playoffs in 2014 to send off their Fans and Felix making a Postseason appearance. For what Felix has pitched for them, it would be a shame to never have made the playoffs with him as your anchor. Obviously, one of the biggest culprits was Choke Figgins being an absolute bust overpaid, nobody for them. And I believe Chone is having an impact on Bourne being signed. Reading any Seattle comments from their fans and it's a big, been there done that, do we really need to sign another Chone and lose a draft pick?

 

Anyway, my next crystal ball sight is if both Verlander and Hernandez get to test FA, the Yankees will sign them both. That is the real reason why they are shedding payroll is preparing to have a near 300mil payroll with the likes of Sabathia,Verlander,Felix pitching for them in 2015.

[paul253]

The Brewers system lacks depth and high ceiling players. And most of the impact prospects are pitchers. Like I said, who are they going to make an offer with? Scooter Gennett? Hunter Morris? Khris Davis? Seattle isn't going to trade Hernandez for a bunch of guys who project to be platoon players or average major leaguers.