John Sickels of Minor League Ball -- Brewer Prospect Analysis

[Mass Haas]

John's approach is three-fold, two portions released, final analysis with his prospect grades to come later this week:

 

Milwaukee Brewers Organization Discussion

 

Milwaukee Brewers Preliminary Prospect List

[brewcrewdue80]

nice find. Not much too it but it appears a more thorough analysis will be coming.

 

Anyway, taken from that, Guys I'm interested in as Starter potentials:

Gagnon,Bucci, and Nelson. All three put together a solid 2012 season. I'm looking forward to their move up and how they do this year.

[Mass Haas]

Actually, another teaser discussion thread before his 4th post with the formal list.

[Mass Haas]

Sickels final analysis

[ClosetBrewerFan]

4 B's, 7 B-'s, the rest are C+'s. Not bad. Sickels usually has a few C's in his top 20 lists so it shows the team has real depth but no true superstars in the minors. Sounds about right.

 

Nelson as a C+ surprised me. Looking at his stats again, I agree. He needs to show better control this year to rank him higher. He did great in A+ but the walk rate was horrible at AA.

 

Rogers can easily be higher than a C+, but that only occurs if he stays healthy. So, I'd rank him C+ (B if healthy)

[TooLiveBrew]

Glad to see the B+ for Peralta. I think that matches up fairly well with how Peralta-backers would rate him.

 

And I'm really looking forward to seeing what Roache can do.

[Eye Black]

Has anyone purchased Sickels Prospect Book in previous years? I really enjoy his web material, curious what the Prospect Book offers in terms of format and content?

[Ennder]

Seems fair enough. A deep system without a lot of top end talent. It would look a lot better if we didn't graduate 5 rookies last year.

[brewcrewdue80]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/2/3829866/minor-league-system-rankings-based-on-sickels-rankings

Brewers would be 16th but there were 5 teams to be ranked yet. From reading the comments though Stl.'s top 6 prospects point out higher than the Brewers' 20 combined. And Seattle's top 6 would point out at equal to Milwaukee.

Cincy one of teams not to be ranked but as it stands now Milwaukee stands at the lowest in the Central by quite the number of grades.

Then again, our pitchers all kinda flamed out in opinion and a return to ability the time they were drafted would be a boom.

[reillymcshane]

I think this is a really fair assessment of our system. Good depth. No stars. I'm sure we can all argue about some of the specific rankings, but I think it is an honest look at our minor leaguers.

 

What is encouraging is the assessment that there are a lot of guys who can help the club. And not just starting pitchers. We need a few bats to emerge in the next couple of years to stay relevant. And we need to develop relievers - cheap, effective relievers. Our track record on relief pitchers is laughable.

[umphrey]

It's too bad that Jungmann and Bradley disappointed so much. If we had just 1 of those guys grading out as a A- prospect, our system would look so much better.

[Mass Haas]

LATEST as of 8/8: Milwaukee Brewers Top 20 2013 PRE-SEASON Prospects in Review

[WV Brew]

Anyone have a read on Tyler Cravy? His 2.24 ERA and 1.054 WHIP look good this year but is that an artifact of Brevard County? His 1.91 K/BB is the lowest of his career and his strikeouts, in general, are way down from previous numbers. Thanks to anyone who could comment.

[Mass Haas]

Anyone have a read on Tyler Cravy? His 2.24 ERA and 1.054 WHIP look good this year but is that an artifact of Brevard County? His 1.91 K/BB is the lowest of his career and his strikeouts, in general, are way down from previous numbers. Thanks to anyone who could comment.

 

Pitching to contact, throwing the breaking ball for strikes

 

Those are Cravy's own words from his July 20th audio interview. Granted, more specific details in online form hard to come by.

[dacbrewers]

Brevard County's minor league notes say Cravy relies on command, not velocity to retire batters...interesting because the Dunedin Announcer said he was still throwing 94-95 in the sixth inning. Last 11 outings have been quality.

[JohnBriggs12]

I still believe he's still underselling Peralta. In Peralta's last 10 starts, his ERA is 2.10. That's one of the better 10 game stretches by any recent Brewer starter and that includes Greinke. With a 97 MPH sinker and one of the top average MPH fastballs of any NL starter, his ceiling seems higher than a 4th starter. If Thornburg is set to follow that path, I say that bodes awfully well.

 

If his observation that Gennett's BA drops 10 points with every step up, that would make him around a .270 hitter in the major leagues (exactly his BA now). That's not All Star caliber but you can live with a 2B who does that. He probably won't slug .460, but .400 isn't out of his reach.

[WV Brew]

Thanks Mass. Should have known you'd have it covered already.

[fondybrewfan]

Just imagine if Peralta hadn't ahd that horrible game agaisnt CO. His ERA in the last 10 would probably be like 1.50. I have liked Thornburg thus far too; I don't know what happened in the minors earlier this year but it looks like he has sticking power to me. Peralta, Thornburg, and Nelson are three fairly promising young guys that COULD turn into #3 starters or better. That is promising for the future but you still don't go anywhere in the playoffs without 1 or 2 legitimate aces. I suppose one of the young guys could turn into one but I think they probably top out like Gallardo I.E. a #1 by default but probably really only a #2.

[TigerUppercut]

Just imagine if Peralta hadn't ahd that horrible game agaisnt CO. His ERA in the last 10 would probably be like 1.50. I have liked Thornburg thus far too; I don't know what happened in the minors earlier this year but it looks like he has sticking power to me. Peralta, Thornburg, and Nelson are three fairly promising young guys that COULD turn into #3 starters or better. That is promising for the future but you still don't go anywhere in the playoffs without 1 or 2 legitimate aces. I suppose one of the young guys could turn into one but I think they probably top out like Gallardo I.E. a #1 by default but probably really only a #2.

 

The Brewers had no legitimate aces in 2011 and were 2 games from the World Series.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just imagine if Peralta hadn't ahd that horrible game agaisnt CO. His ERA in the last 10 would probably be like 1.50. I have liked Thornburg thus far too; I don't know what happened in the minors earlier this year but it looks like he has sticking power to me. Peralta, Thornburg, and Nelson are three fairly promising young guys that COULD turn into #3 starters or better. That is promising for the future but you still don't go anywhere in the playoffs without 1 or 2 legitimate aces. I suppose one of the young guys could turn into one but I think they probably top out like Gallardo I.E. a #1 by default but probably really only a #2.

 

The Brewers had no legitimate aces in 2011 and were 2 games from the World Series.

I definitely get the point you're making here, but I feel like a more accurate way to describe that run would fit right into the point fondy was trying to make -- the Brewers won one playoff series against a team that also lacked 'legit ace' SP talent, and then lost 4 of 6 games in the next round.

[TigerUppercut]

Just imagine if Peralta hadn't ahd that horrible game agaisnt CO. His ERA in the last 10 would probably be like 1.50. I have liked Thornburg thus far too; I don't know what happened in the minors earlier this year but it looks like he has sticking power to me. Peralta, Thornburg, and Nelson are three fairly promising young guys that COULD turn into #3 starters or better. That is promising for the future but you still don't go anywhere in the playoffs without 1 or 2 legitimate aces. I suppose one of the young guys could turn into one but I think they probably top out like Gallardo I.E. a #1 by default but probably really only a #2.

 

The Brewers had no legitimate aces in 2011 and were 2 games from the World Series.

I definitely get the point you're making here, but I feel like a more accurate way to describe that run would fit right into the point fondy was trying to make -- the Brewers won one playoff series against a team that also lacked 'legit ace' SP talent, and then lost 4 of 6 games in the next round.

 

To a historically hot team, but also a team that lacked a true ace and went on to win the World Series.

[TheCrew07]

To a historically hot team, but also a team that lacked a true ace and went on to win the World Series.

 

Can we please get past the superficial analysis and hyperbole? The Cardinals weren't historically hot, that would have been Colorado in 2007.

 

I don't necessarily agree that you need aces, I do think you need 3 #2 type pitchers to win a WS, however there is no way that the Brewers pitching staff matched up, and no regular season statistics don't mean didly. The postseason is about match-ups, it's about best on best. Lets a take a look at that series game by game.

 

Greinke didn't pitch well but beat Garcia in Game 1 because the Brewers hit 3 HRs and won 9-6.

 

Marcum got destroyed in game 2 and the Brewers lost 12-3. Jackson didn't make it through the 5th but STL's bullpen was nails.

 

Carpenter out pitched Gallardo in game 3 and won 4-3, Carpenter was the better pitcher in 2011 and is a better pitcher for his career. They have similar career numbers, but Carpenter's peak is far beyond anything Gallardo has done.

 

Wolf beat Lohse in game 4, a similar match-up talent wise, he pitched a solid game and the Brewers won 4-2.

 

The Brewers were awful in game 5 committing 4 errors and Greinke didn't record a single strike out to bail himself out. Once again Garcia didn't pitch through 5 but the STL bullpen shut the Brewers down and the Brewers lost 7-1.

 

In game 6 both starting pitchers were awful, but Marcum was worse than Jackson. Jackson only pitched 2 innings and the Cards' bullpen pitched the last 7 innings allowing 2 runs. STL won easily 12-6.

 

The post season ERAs of our pitching staff:

 

Axford - 1.29

K-Rod - 1.80

Gallardo - 2.84

Estrada - 6.00

Greinke - 6.48

Wolf - 8.1

Loe - 8.31

Narveson - 11.05

Marcum - 14.90

 

And before anyone says it, yes the post season is an incredibly small sample, but that's the way it is, that's the entire point, we don't get to simulate the games with season stats, it's the best teams going on best on best in no more than 7 games.

 

How is that pitching remotely comparable to the Cardinals post season pitching?

 

Jackson and Lohse were awful starting pitchers with ERAs over 5. Jackson at 5.6 and Lohse at 7.82 while normally that would have been enough for the Cards to be in trouble putting them behind the 8 ball in every other game, the Cards bullpen did all the heavy lifting in their starts. Boggs was the only reliever of consequence with an ERA over 5. Motte, Dotel, Lynn, and Salas were all under 3.5 and Rhodes didn't give up a single run in the postseason.

 

The Brewers were manhandled, destroyed, and the series wasn't even close.

 

So yea, if you have have 2 starting pitchers who will win you games and 5 pitchers who can pitch multiple innings if necessary and not give up runs in your bullpen then ya, you can win the WS. I don't want to over simplify this but one of things I tend to look at is how the top pitchers on a team do against the best possible competition. I'm sorry but I don't see Lohse, Estrada, or the 2013 Gallardo being good enough to beat any team in a play-off series. Nor do I think that Hellweg or Nelson are legitimate top of the rotation starters, and I'm not sure what to make of Thornburg anymore. That basically leaves Peralta whom I like, but we need at least one more physically talented pitcher, probably 2. Lohse & Wolf are fine in the regular season when you're facing all different kinds of line-ups and teams are grinding through the regular season, they can be statistically successful, but I just don't trust those kind of guys facing the best line-ups in the game in the post season. There are simply too many off days and too much talent on the other side to rely on that kind of marginal talent.

 

Of course a Suppan can get hot and have the best stretch of his career in a post season run, but how often does that happen? Can we really count on something like that? What's the best possible solution to hang our hat on?

 

I'd much rather have the best rotation in the division and be good rather than hope to be get lucky. Peralta and a bunch of 3s doesn't make us the best rotation in the division, we're still at best 3rd in that respect. Unfortunately if the young pitchers around the division progress we're probably still the 4th best. Paul said it best, we need young impact pitching now, not in 4 years, not in 2015, we need it now. Every rotation of consequence is younger or is trending younger than we are.

 

Potential #3s or better whom are 25 years old or younger min A ball:

 

STL: Miller, Wacha, Martinez, and Rosenthal.

CIN: Leake, Latos, Cingrani, Corcino, and Stephenson

PIT: Cole, Taillon, Kingham, Glasnow, and Heredia

MIL: Peralta, Nelson, and ?

 

As prospects we don't have anyone who's at the level of Miller, Stephenson, Cole or Taillon.

 

Once again the issue here is that we are losing ground everywhere... we aren't competitive at MLB and our farm system isn't close to the other teams in the division. Sure the Cubs don't have pitching, but they can buy it, and they have the best collection of hitting talent in the minor leagues.

 

Our farm system will look better when the rest of the division graduates their prospects, but how will the MLB teams look then? Most of the division is better now and projects to be better in the future... I personally don't like where we are at all.

[TigerUppercut]

I agree with most of the analysis but I guess I'd like to see the long list of teams that finished the regular season 23-9 in their last 32 (needing every last one of them), beat a team in a 5 games series who had unquestionably the best starting staff in baseball that year,and went on through the rest of the post season winning the World Series. Maybe not the greatest 32+ game stretch of all time but probably historically good at a minimum (superficial as it may be).

[TooLiveBrew]

I would argue that Crapenter was a bona fide ace, & pitched like it in the postseason.

 

Anyway, back to John Sickels's revisiting of his pre-season list...