What's your preferred 2013 lineup? (of players who will actually be on our team)

[brewcrewdue80]

2013's lineups likely just a few that will be said. It should be much like how it finished majority end of last season either way:

 

Aoki

Segura

Braun

Ramirez

Lucroy

Hart

Gomez

Weeks

Pitcher.

 

That's not how it was set but that is my lineup.

They wont bat Weeks 8th but to me since he's great at taking walks/HBP batting ahead of the pitcher suits my liking.

 

Batting Aoki/Segura contact hitters/non Strikeout guys % wise like Gomez/Weeks 1,2 with their speed ahead of the line drive hitters of Braun,Ramirez,Lucroy.

I envision lots of

A:SBs to get in scoring position and score with subsequent hit

B:Reaching 3b on a hard hit single to be driven in with a SF

C:Scoring from 1b on one of the many 2bs that Braun,Ramirez, and Lucroy hit

 

Hart 6th. Dropped to 6th because Lucroy gets on base/better contact at 5 is better in my opinion than Lucroy 6th behind a less often OB Hart. I'd prefer added Runners on Base for a Hart HR.

 

Gomez 7th. His Aggressive ABs don't belong at the top of the Lineup. Low OB as well another reason not to be in top of lineup. 7th not 8th?

Again Aggressive ABs ahead of Pitcher? doesn't work when a Pitcher will be nit picking the plate with pitcher due up next. THUS.

 

Weeks 8th Hey you know how to take Walks take them ahead of the pitcher. Batting behind Hart/Gomez gives him Rbi opps too. Meanwhile Weeks rising K% is at the bottom of the order.

 

It seems so simple to me to field that lineup. Days you put Maldonado or Gamel in lineup I'd take Weeks back to 2nd move up Hart and Gomez and insert Gamel/Maldy 7th Segura 8th.

 

Why? well it can appease Weeks to get to bat at top of order again. He does have that 600PA/1200PA contract option to attain so he's going to be pushing to get his PAs an you're paying him 11mil(though just cuz his pay is 11mil doesn't mean its best for team to place him atop order).

Aoki a day off? Hart in RF Gamel at 1b? Weeks,Segura,Braun,Ramirez,Lucroy,Hart,Gomez,Gamel.

 

If Gomez has his BA above .255 you might flip Segura with Gomez 2-7/7-2 It is his contract year so who knows? Maybe Gomez bats some crazy .275 this year?!

[logan82]

Weeks at the bottom of the lineup is probably not the best use of his talent.

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

Ramirez

Hart

Lucroy

Gomez

Segura

Pitcher is probably the best way to go. Giving Segura almost a month's worth of PA more than Weeks is just not a good idea. Getting guys on base ahead of Braun and Ramirez is the most important thing we can do.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Weeks at the bottom of the lineup is probably not the best use of his talent.

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

Ramirez

Hart

Lucroy

Gomez

Segura

Pitcher is probably the best way to go. Giving Segura almost a month's worth of PA more than Weeks is just not a good idea. Getting guys on base ahead of Braun and Ramirez is the most important thing we can do.

 

This is exactly what I would want to see happen, and this is what I believe the Brewers will do.

[logan82]

Oh it's not what I would want just what I think would be best given the lack of imagination and inability to do anything innovative MLB managers have.

[markedman5]

Until Segura proves he can get on base at a higher % then Weeks he should and will likely bat 8th.

 

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

AR

Hart

Luc

Gomez

Segura

[brewcrewdue80]

Until Segura proves he can get on base at a higher % then Weeks he should and will likely bat 8th.

 

Well, if you split Segura's games in half which coincides with his low point. He finished the season

23-70 .329/.405/.442 slash lines. And that stretch includes him finishing 1-14 the final 4games.

Take away his first MLB 23games as a slide of adjusting and he shows a good capability of getting OB. Small sample size yes argue what you will. He only K'd 8times to 9BBs Again, something for me I just like the contact vs. SOs at the top 2 in order.

Weeks in same stretch btw: 3more games played

23-102 .225/.288/.421 slash line 9BBs as well to 22ks

 

22games is about 1/7th of a season. Weeks would be 32ABs behind Segura's OB pace which takes him to 1/6th the season or 1month to equal Segura's stretch.

 

It's hard to look at someone who's so new to the team to replace someone you've watched bat atop the order. There's a bias to Weeks but factors in Segura's favor that to me will lead to him equaling or bettering Weeks in the OB department:

His speed combined with a higher contact rate will result in a BA higher than Weeks and you can book that.

Weeks K% Career in the 26% range near 29%last season.

 

Weeks will have to outpace Segura in BBs to beat him in OB and the final 22Se/25We game stretch Segura had the same 9BBs as Weeks in 32 less ABs. Put Seguras .320s/near .380 line in winter ball as another sign of progression.

To me:Young, growing,gaining experience has more upside in accomplishing getting OB in my eyes than a player like Weeks who Ks and has passed that stage where he should improve and should just flatline in stats the next 3-4years before declining.

 

I also think who's more likely to see have hit and run with Aoki on 1st? How about Bunt? In meshing Aoki's skills Segura fits better. I envision needing a run in 8th/9th innings and Aoki getting on base Segura bunting him over and Braun/Ramirez the chance to knock Aoki in on 2nd. Weeks I just never see being asked to bunt. Add the Hit/Run better contact rate of Segura and you could see 1st/3rd down 1 and now Braun/Rami knock both in to take the lead.

That is my reasoning. And I already added Weeks would see his share batting Leadoff/2nd with an Aoki day off or Gamel in lineup. Which I envision equals around 20% of the games in that scenario.

 

It's kinda hard with whom the Brewers have in Hart/Weeks both being good players with their history batting in Mil's lineup to dethrone them. But in Segura/Lucroy, while both Hart/Weeks turn that clock beyond 30, I see better replacements for those spots they've resided in today.

[logan82]

The bias is that Weeks is a very very good hitter and has been for years. He has shown that even whe he is not hitting he will take a lot of walks and still help the team. Segura's stats at the MLB level last year are pretty much an indication of nothing. At this point I think Weeks is clearly a better hitter than Segura.

[JohnBriggs12]

Until Segura proves he can get on base at a higher % then Weeks he should and will likely bat 8th.

 

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

AR

Hart

Luc

Gomez

Segura

 

 

I'm pretty sure this will be the lineup. Eventually though Segura is going to be a top of the order guy, just not this year. I'd keep Lucroy between Hart and Gomez. Even good offensive catchers primary job is defensive. He doesn't need added pressure in a prime RBI spot.

 

It will be interesting to see how many starts Gamel and Schafer get if the lineup proves to be a susceptible to top RH starters.

[brewcrewdue80]

So, I put a long post on the impression for Segura thread. In it I posted what the OB% were last season of Brewers hitters minus HRs. It came something to Lucroy .320 Braun .314 Segura .313 Aoki .311 Ramirez .298 Weeks .278 Hart .266 Gomez .241.

 

It's why I entertain Segura #2 in lineup and Lucroy #5. Lucroy's BA/OB easily protect the #4hitter where as you see Weeks/Hart weakens that protection when not hitting HRs. If you're looking to provide Braun/Ramirez with the most RBI opportunities you go with the Aoki/Segura 1/2. And you have to expect Segura to bat better his 2nd season with more experience showcasing more why I like him #2 over Weeks. 35pt separation now. and Weeks career avg is .290OB sans HR so expecting Weeks to do better this year over last as well you're likely still looking at 35pt separation.

[logan82]

Ignoring HR is just silly.

[brewtank34]

Knowing what we know about ARam, I'm pretty sure it's safe to say that he's going to stink up the joint in April and most of may. For that reason, I would split my line-up in two. The first being the 1st two months of the year and the second line-up being the rest of the season.

 

1st 2 months of season:

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

Hart

Lucroy

ARam

Gomez

Segura

 

For the rest of the season, I'd go with:

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

ARam

Hart

Lucroy

Segura

Gomez

 

I switched Gomez and Segura in the second line-up because I figured Lucroy could handle being protected by Segura better than Gomez while ARam would benefit from a power threat behind him more.

[markedman5]

Olney ranks the Brewers lineup 2nd best in baseball. FWIW

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8808958/los-angeles-angels-milwaukee-brewers-top-10-lineups-majors-mlb

[Baldkin]

So, I put a long post on the impression for Segura thread. In it I posted what the OB% were last season of Brewers hitters minus HRs. It came something to Lucroy .320 Braun .314 Segura .313 Aoki .311 Ramirez .298 Weeks .278 Hart .266 Gomez .241.

 

It's why I entertain Segura #2 in lineup and Lucroy #5. Lucroy's BA/OB easily protect the #4hitter where as you see Weeks/Hart weakens that protection when not hitting HRs. If you're looking to provide Braun/Ramirez with the most RBI opportunities you go with the Aoki/Segura 1/2. And you have to expect Segura to bat better his 2nd season with more experience showcasing more why I like him #2 over Weeks. 35pt separation now. and Weeks career avg is .290OB sans HR so expecting Weeks to do better this year over last as well you're likely still looking at 35pt separation.

 

And if you ignore singles, what does it come out to be? Swings way into Week's favor, doesn't it? Ignoring the single best thing a hitter can do in any given at bat to make an argument... that's a new one.

That is called selection bias, and it is not a good way to make an argument. If you can show your made up-non-home-run stat has anything to do with helping the team score more runs... feel free to show the math, but giving Segura 100 more PA than Weeks for the season is just a silly thing to do this year. The same way it was silly hit Gomez second based 50 spring training at bats where Gomez walked once in 2011.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't mind you calling me out on my hypothetical stat I threw out there. It was an idea on how to approach setting the lineup. While a HR counts as getting on base. It at the same time clears the bases. Right in front of your cleanup hitters in Braun/Ramirez. So, taking the factor of a HR not counting as being OB, the OB averages above just indicates if you want to see someone "On the Bases" ahead of Braun or Ramirez or even Weeks for that matter, who's best to accomplish the feat. I like to think that it is also a nice indicator how to set your 3/4 in lineup considering the amount of HRs taken away as OB by Braun and Ramirez they still rank in the top 5 on the team.

I don't know how I would go about putting together the math to show what the results would be with my lineup vs. the typical Brewers lineup. And I did mention that Weeks would get his ABs in a 1/2 slot from time to time with days off by Aoki/Hart. So I don't believe by season's end it would be 100PA difference.

Let's take this in a positive spin. When Weeks/Gomez/Hart/Ramirez are gone. The trio of Segura/Lucroy/Braun Remain and that could become the 1,2,3 in a lineup. So maybe one day I'll get to see how batting the best On Base guys ahead of your #3 works out.

[logan82]

How is a 100% chance to score a run worse than setting yourself up for 2 guys who will make an out at least 60% of the time? That is basically what you seem to be saying.

 

Let's take this in a positive spin. When Weeks/Gomez/Hart/Ramirez are gone. The trio of Segura/Lucroy/Braun Remain and that could become the 1,2,3 in a lineup.

When that day comes, we will have a much worse offense unless we replace the guys who leave with comparable hitters or the guys we currently have will have to improve quite a bit.

[DR28]

Olney ranks the Brewers lineup 2nd best in baseball. FWIW

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/olney_buster/id/8808958/los-angeles-angels-milwaukee-brewers-top-10-lineups-majors-mlb

 

I agree with that... We have a Top 5 Offense in all of the MLB!!

 

I don't see the Lineup changing from what we had last year... Why fix what isn't broken?

 

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

Ramirez

Hart

Lucroy

Gomez

Segura

[brewtank34]

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

ARam

Lucroy

Gamel

Gomez

Segura

[brewcrewdue80]

With Hart starting year on DL I feel Weeks will bat 5th Lucroy 6th Segura/Gomez interchangeable at 2nd/8th. Gamel 7th.

Hart's injury really sets up my

Aoki,Segura,Braun,Aram,Lucroy,Weeks lineup with a coin flip on Gamel/Gomez 7/8. I was saying Weeks fits the 6th slot like Hart does but one had to be removed.

[Mays Hayes]

With Hart starting year on DL I feel Weeks will bat 5th Lucroy 6th Segura/Gomez interchangeable at 2nd/8th. Gamel 7th.

Hart's injury really sets up my

Aoki,Segura,Braun,Aram,Lucroy,Weeks lineup with a coin flip on Gamel/Gomez 7/8. I was saying Weeks fits the 6th slot like Hart does but one had to be removed.

 

 

I sure hope not. Weeks is an ideal #2 hitter, and he finally became entrenched there at the end of last year. I'd be very frustrated if they moved him out now after finally getting it right.

 

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

Ramirez

Lucroy

....... fill in the blanks

 

until Hart gets back in the lineup.

[DR28]

With Hart starting year on DL I feel Weeks will bat 5th Lucroy 6th Segura/Gomez interchangeable at 2nd/8th. Gamel 7th.

Hart's injury really sets up my

Aoki,Segura,Braun,Aram,Lucroy,Weeks lineup with a coin flip on Gamel/Gomez 7/8. I was saying Weeks fits the 6th slot like Hart does but one had to be removed.

 

 

I sure hope not. Weeks is an ideal #2 hitter, and he finally become entrenched there at the end of last year. I'd be very frustrated if they moved him out now after finally getting it right.

 

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

Ramirez

Lucroy

....... fill in the blanks

 

until Hart gets back in the lineup.

 

I agree, Weeks needs to stay in the 2 hole.

 

To fill in your blanks...

 

Gamel

Gomez

Segura

[brewcrewdue80]

Weeks' Best hitting was done from the 6th spot last year. Whether, it's him approaching ABs differently there, or Pitchers approaching how they pitch Weeks with who bats next...He was better hitting lower in the lineup, so the Stats say. It will likely be Weeks 2nd, just hope RR moves him down sooner than he did last season should he struggle out of the gate.

[bensheeps]

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

Ramirez

Lucroy

Gomez

Gamel

Segura

 

Couple of points:

1. Wonder if RR will put Aoki in the 2nd spot behind Weeks so he has "a guy to move Rickie over" (bunt, hit&run, etc.)

2. I'm expecting Gomez to have a big contract year. Like him in front of the left-handed Gamel for more protection on steal attempts and/or the ability to score from 1st on Mat's doubles.

3. Fingers crossed that Lucroy can continue offense from last year so the 5 spot isn't a black hole.

[Baldkin]

Weeks' Best hitting was done from the 6th spot last year. Whether, it's him approaching ABs differently there, or Pitchers approaching how they pitch Weeks with who bats next...He was better hitting lower in the lineup, so the Stats say. It will likely be Weeks 2nd, just hope RR moves him down sooner than he did last season should he struggle out of the gate.

 

If you think that him hitting second was why he struggled the first half of last year, then I'm not sure what I can tell you.

He's one of the 4 best hitters on the team, and hitting him 6th would be a waste by giving more AB's to... most likely, Carlos Gomez or Jean Segura. As bad as everyone thought he was last year, he finished with a 100 WRC+, exactly league average.

 

Moving Gomez up to 2nd from 7th, means he gets ~100 more PA's as a result. Do you really want Carlos Gomez to pinch hit 100 times for Rickie Weeks?

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd go with:

 

Aoki

Weeks

Braun

Ramirez

Gamel

Lucroy

Gomez

Segura

 

Against lefties, I'd flip flop Gomez and Gamel. I just like a lefty to mix it up higher in the lineup against right handed pitching. I also like Lucroy in the 6 hole rather than the 5 spot. I don't think your catcher needs the added stress of having to be a big time run producer that comes with that spot in the order. I also like the speed guys back to back.

[paul253]

I'd go with:

 

Aoki

Lucroy

Braun

Ramirez

Weeks

Gamel

Gomez

Segura