Maldonado and Lucroy?

[trwi7]

If I had to guess I would say he is a .280/.340/.430/.770 hitter. He has gap power not HR power and doesn't have much speed.

 

I would guess around here too.

[Roderick]

If I had to guess I would say he is a .280/.340/.430/.770 hitter. He has gap power not HR power and doesn't have much speed.

 

I would guess around here too.

 

.280 with gap power sounds like Lucroy to me.

[brewcrewdue80]

Come on fellas! .280? He's a line drive hitter and to the Gaps. I'd expect more .300+ seasons from him than seasons less than .300. And his OB will be around .350 for sure. so .300/350/.435 as a standard season with likely a breakout well above those numbers on a good year.

 

Honestly, his history in the minors shows that breakout numbers like his .320 season 2nd season around is about norm for him. Only this time he doesn't move up a ladder he gets to stay and hit at this level a 3rd time! Thinking progression like Yadier Molina's with batting lines he may just blow away are expectations and hit around .340/.410/.495 a season or two. The guy can just flat out hit and I've always thought a hitting catcher who gets to sit back and catch pitches only improves his hand/eye coordination to be even a better hitter. If not with the bat with taking walks or striking out less putting more balls in play. So I expect his 6+% BBs to raise or at the very least watch his K% lower like it did drastically last season.

[logan82]

I think you underestimate just how hard it is to hit .300+ and how good the guys who do are. Only 23 guys who qualified for the batting title did last year and only 62 hit .280 or higher. Drop it down to 400PA(or just over half a year) and you go to 32 and 76.

 

Given that I think a .280 BA is pretty reasonable. A .060 split in BA - OBP also seems pretty reasonable and I wouldn't expect an ISO much over .150. Guys with a higher ISO usually hit at least 20 HR and I don't think Lucroy has that kind of power. That leaves us with a line of about .280/.340/.430/.770.

[RobDeer 45]

I believe it was after the 2011 season that Luc made a statement that he was pretty upset with how he hit and said that wasn't going to happen again. Not to say he can just call his shots but he just seemed so confident that he was a much better hitter than he had showed. That kind of stuck with me and I think he really concentrated on his offense last offseason after working on D so hard previously. I see him more around .290 I think. Maybe last year will become his norm and boy would that be great but as was just stated, batting over .300 is tough to do. Maybe he has that ability, but it's not easy to do as a catcher.

[Ennder]

His peripherals are actually as a legit high AVG hitter so it wouldn't shock me if he hit .300. I'd probably project more like .280 since he isn't fast at all though. .280 with a 6% BB makes him a valuable offensive C no matter how much power he hits for though.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think you underestimate just how hard it is to hit .300+ and how good the guys who do are. Only 23 guys who qualified for the batting title did last year and only 62 hit .280 or higher. Drop it down to 400PA(or just over half a year) and you go to 32 and 76.

 

If you pull up all those players, What's their K% LD%? Lucroy dropped his K% to under 10% a PA. from 18% among his PA in 2010/11.

An odd fact looking in to Lucroy numbers is he had a rather large gap between Home/Away BABIP with his Home being .321 and away being over .400. His Ks were lower at home vs on the road. So, to me his Home abilities were a little below what you'd expect from him. I'd expect his BABIP to go up at home which if so with the lower K% should equate to even more from him as BA potential. But then again, the Road BABIP just has to go down to make up for the rise at home. The difference though is he Ks more on road than home meaning the dip will have less of an impact.

 

Lucroy's % of GB,LD,FB haven't really changed much while he reduced the K%. I just think that should he keep his k% at or below 15 .300 seasons can and should be expected. Whether Lucroy's BABIP is inflated or not if he keeps a high contact rate and low K% rate even around norm BABIP he's likely to hit .280. Just on sheer fact that in 500PA He's getting 10 or more hits over avg by the less K% which is worth around 20pts on BA vs. the avg K rate on the league.

[thebruce44]

Come on fellas! .280? He's a line drive hitter and to the Gaps. I'd expect more .300+ seasons from him than seasons less than .300. And his OB will be around .350 for sure. so .300/350/.435 as a standard season with likely a breakout well above those numbers on a good year.

 

Honestly, his history in the minors shows that breakout numbers like his .320 season 2nd season around is about norm for him. Only this time he doesn't move up a ladder he gets to stay and hit at this level a 3rd time! Thinking progression like Yadier Molina's with batting lines he may just blow away are expectations and hit around .340/.410/.495 a season or two. The guy can just flat out hit and I've always thought a hitting catcher who gets to sit back and catch pitches only improves his hand/eye coordination to be even a better hitter. If not with the bat with taking walks or striking out less putting more balls in play. So I expect his 6+% BBs to raise or at the very least watch his K% lower like it did drastically last season.

 

Its going to be very difficult for him to repeat his ISO from this past season. I think .280 is very realistic.

[brewcrewdue80]

I wasn't expecting Lucroy to repeat his iso. That will all depend on if he hits over 10HRs. But his BA of .300 is realistic due to Lucroy's approach at the plate and line drive ability. Now, if Lucroy suddenly added lift and an ability to hit 20Hrs but at the cost of his line drives then .270 is what I'd think from him. And of course hitting Groundballs versus Linedrives. I just don't see Lucroy at this stage becoming more fly ball or ground ball in his hitting. I expect that line drive rate to remain high thus keeping his BA high.

[thebruce44]

I wasn't expecting Lucroy to repeat his iso. That will all depend on if he hits over 10HRs. But his BA of .300 is realistic due to Lucroy's approach at the plate and line drive ability. Now, if Lucroy suddenly added lift and an ability to hit 20Hrs but at the cost of his line drives then .270 is what I'd think from him. And of course hitting Groundballs versus Linedrives. I just don't see Lucroy at this stage becoming more fly ball or ground ball in his hitting. I expect that line drive rate to remain high thus keeping his BA high.

 

What I was getting at is that without the extra base hits, and by extension power, he had this year, I don't think he can keep his BABIP so high. He isn't fast, so even as a line drive hitter its going to be hard for him to carry a BABIP around 0.340. For example, if his BABIP was 0.300 last year, he would have batted in the 0.280s.

 

In the end, I care about his OBP, which I think will always stay around 0.340 one way or another. I'd love for him to prove me wrong though and be a perennial 300 hitter.