Should the Brewers just rebuild?

[JohnBriggs12]

This team scored more runs than any team in the NL in 2012. They didn't lose any significant position player. They can reasonably expect improvement at SS, and 2B, that should offset regression elsewhere. There seems to be some concern that Gomez was a fluke. I think when a player with the immense talent he has starts producing, it's not likely he'll stop. Aoki can be one of the top leadoff hitters in all of baseball. He could contend for a batting title not having to spend time adjusting to a new country. Their pitching staff led the NL in strikeouts last year, and got better after trading Greinke. The bullpen cannot be worse than it was last year. They have payroll flexibility to go out and get a guy at midseason and better yet they have more young arms to use as bait.

 

Personally, I'm far more confident in this team than I was a year ago. I expect this team to contend from day one.

[logan82]

Hart and Gomez are blocking guys who at worst shouldn't be a big step down from them offensively with a possibility of being better. Not a big possibility though.

[gregmag]

I'm not expert at this kind of analysis, but I can't see any obvious reason to believe in Gomez's improvement last year. He has a broad skill set, and that's a reasonable basis for believing that he has really taken a step forward. But he has always seemed like the kind of player who didn't know how to use his talent, and last year I got the sense the hits were just falling for him.

 

But even if that's wrong, he's not such a high-impact player that he's likely to make a huge difference before the nonwaiver deadline. I would be shopping both him and Hart. If you like what somebody offers -- young, credible talent at any position, as others have suggested -- then pull the trigger. To me, that isn't a rebuilding move, because we have in-house options to replace both guys. To put it another way: I think the Brewers can contend this year, but I don't think they're such world-beaters that we should be completely afraid of risk or of making our talent younger. If we can decrease our chances of winning this year by 10-20% while significantly upgrading our talent level for 2013 and beyond, I'd do it.

[Roderick]

I'm not against trading anyone other than Braun and Gallardo. And I am only against trading Gallardo because of the specific need this year to have someone with more experience.

 

That said, we could trade Hart for younger players and I still wouldn't admit we are done for 2013 as Gamel would get a chance to prove his worth. If we trade Hart we probably got a piece or two that are close and some money for DM to play with.

 

Let's see what this young starting staff can do before we write off the season. It could be our offense is nearly as good as last year and the starters are doing fine and we just need to trade for some bullpen help.

 

Doesn't help that the Astros left the division, though.

[MNBrew]

Two things:

 

1. The Astros had roughly twice as many wins against the Brewers as they averaged against every other team MLB, so based on 2012 results, one could easily say the Brewers are helped more than any other NL Central team by Houston joining the AL.

 

2. I don't get why some feel Estrada has something to prove as a starter. Once he joined the rotation in 2012, he only missed starts due to a baserunning injury and he pitched pretty consistently all year. Look at his total numbers over the last 2 years: a 3.82 ERA in 231 IP, w/ 211 hits, 58 BB, & 231 Ks - a 1.16 WHIP & a perfect 1:1 K/IP ratio. His 2011 wasn't shabby at all but his 2012 was even better and he pitched for longer in the rotation. His HR rate is a little concerning at times, but by & large he's proven to be a very solid asset when on the mound. To me, the 2013 rotation isn't Yo and which of the question marks, but Yo, Estrada, and then which of the young guys....

[reillymcshane]

Two things:

I don't get why some feel Estrada has something to prove as a starter.

I think Estrada, more than anyone but Yo, deserves a slot in our rotation. He pitched very good last year, especially in the second half. If he repeats what he did last year over 30+ starts, he'll be great.

 

I really think Marco will be fine in 2013. But I admit, I have some kernels of doubt. I just want to see Marco repeat his success over a full season in the rotation. Few predicted he'd be as good as he was last year. That's always something to be wary about. He still only has 32 major league starts. 23 in 2012. Hitters can adjust to pitchers. We see it all the time. Especially with guys who don't have the most overwhelming stuff. This could happen to Estrada (same with Fiers).

 

The thing I like about Marco is that he seems to have learned to pitch really well - not just throw. He was never a big prospect, never a guy with a big arm. His minor league numbers were nothing special. Hell, he was waived by Washington in 2010. But I like how Marco pitched in 2012. He attacked hitters. He limited walks. He adjusted when he had issues (like with the gopher ball - 11 HR in his first 50 innings, then 7 in his last 87 innings). I expect success next year. But I wouldn't be shocked if he regressed.

 

PS - interesting article at Disciples of Uecker on Estrada - http://disciplesofuecker.com/the-inimitable-marco-estrada/7505

 

Marco's gotten to where he is by a bit of a unique path. Also talks about some mechanical adjustments he made last year, which coincided with is improvement.

[Roderick]

2. I don't get why some feel Estrada has something to prove as a starter. Once he joined the rotation in 2012, he only missed starts due to a baserunning injury and he pitched pretty consistently all year. Look at his total numbers over the last 2 years: a 3.82 ERA in 231 IP, w/ 211 hits, 58 BB, & 231 Ks - a 1.16 WHIP & a perfect 1:1 K/IP ratio. His 2011 wasn't shabby at all but his 2012 was even better and he pitched for longer in the rotation. His HR rate is a little concerning at times, but by & large he's proven to be a very solid asset when on the mound. To me, the 2013 rotation isn't Yo and which of the question marks, but Yo, Estrada, and then which of the young guys....

 

I don't have a problem with Estrada. But Gallardo is the one that will be expected to stomp out losing streaks and generally carry the starting staff, not Estrada. And that was my point.

[MNBrew]

My point on Estrada wasn't in reaction to any person's single post, but more to that general theme which has been present all off-season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This offseason is mostly about getting payroll flexibility, something they haven't had the past two seasons.

 

Bingo - I see 2013 as the season that tells Brewer management what direction they need to take. If the young pitching falls on its face and they're out of contention, they have alot of tradeable pieces that contending teams would want - adding top tier prospects would be very doable at the deadline. If the Brewers are in contention, they'll have enough payroll and pieces themselves to add to the big league roster via trade.

 

Looking at the division, the Astros are gone, which gives the crew more games against better opponents (although the Astros are going to be rapidly improving 2-3 seasons from now), but that can be said of all the remaining NL Central teams. The Reds and Cardinals are better positioned to contend than the Brewers, but not by leaps and bounds - The fact is the Brewers are in the one division where there isn't a large market team going crazy with payroll, which gives them a better chance to contend.

[logan82]

The fact is the Brewers are in the one division where there isn't a large market team going crazy with payroll, which gives them a better chance to contend.

If you added the modifier "that had a good talent base" I would agree. The Cubs are spending plenty of money but are so bad it will not help them for a couple seasons.

[Oldcity]

No way, this team was a mediocre bullpen away from winning the division last year. Their offense was third in the MLB in runs with Weeks having the worst year of his career and Lucroy out for months.

And look at the starting rotation this year compared to Opening Day last year.

 

The Brewers didn't lose much when Lucroy was out, because Maldonado got pretty hot. Weeks had a poor year, but Gomez and Ramirez were both better than expected.

 

They're clearly a worse team than one year ago. Again, I'm glad they aren't splurging on Kyle Lohse or something, but with this staff, things could get ugly.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Why in the world should the Brewers even think about rebuilding when we finally have all of this talented young starting pitching that broke through last season, which they all did well, and we have one of the top 2-3 offenses in the NL? Doesn't make any sense.

[TooLiveBrew]

Why in the world should the Brewers even think about rebuilding when we finally have all of this talented young starting pitching that broke through last season, which they all did well, and we have one of the top 2-3 offenses in the NL? Doesn't make any sense.

While I won't begrudge you your opinion, I'll say read the Oldcity's lead post if you're genuinely confused about why he suggested possibly rebuilding.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Why in the world should the Brewers even think about rebuilding when we finally have all of this talented young starting pitching that broke through last season, which they all did well, and we have one of the top 2-3 offenses in the NL? Doesn't make any sense.

While I won't begrudge you your opinion, I'll say read the Oldcity's lead post if you're genuinely confused about why he suggested possibly rebuilding.

 

I read it, and given the current state of things it doesn't make any sense, like I stated above. I mean no disrespect to Oldcity at all.

 

Doesn't anybody have what the Brewers did in the second half of last season fresh in their minds? At mid-season things were looking terrible, then the Brewers started getting back in the race a little bit, because they started to win a lot of games. Why is that? It's because Doug Melvin started to call up guys like Fiers, Peralta, Rogers, Henderson, traded for Segura, which stabilized and "improved" the team, then other players started to step up, and it was a chain reaction. Every one of the players I mentioned is a pitcher, except Segura, and we traded a pitcher to get him, yet the team still improved. Then shortly after the season the Brewers got rid of the handicaps, Parra, Loe, K-Rod, and replaced them with dependable relievers Gonzales and Gorzelanny which is a huge positive for the team and should result in more wins, perhaps more than we can imagine at this point. Combine that with a top 2-3 offense in the NL, and why in the world would you want to completely break all of that up and destroy the Brewers chances of contending till at least 2016. If they do what Oldcity suggested their contending opportunity won't be in 2014-2015 like Oldcity suggested, it will likely be later. I highly doubt Mark A would even consider that, ever.

[Raw Biz]

Why in the world should the Brewers even think about rebuilding when we finally have all of this talented young starting pitching that broke through last season, which they all did well, and we have one of the top 2-3 offenses in the NL? Doesn't make any sense.

 

I'll echo TLB in that I'll respect your opinion but I'm very skeptical that the Estrada/Fiers/Peralta/Rogers can replicate what they did last year over an entire season. I don't think the Brewers should completely rebuild but I would definitely look into trading off older guys like Hart and/or ARam, both of whom could bring back a very good package.

 

You seem to be one of those who thinks you can win with all offense and average pitching (or you think we actually have an above-average staff) and that's fine but I think you can never have enough pitching. I honestly don't think replacing Hart or ARam with Gamel/Green would mean that much over the course of a season, especially taking into account any potential upgrade we could receive back in trade, hopefully in the form of pitching. I'd sacrifice 2-3 wins this year for multiple years of a potential #2-3 starter (if we could snag one) since realistically, they are probably fighting for the 2nd WC with the Cards, Phillies, Braves, DBacks, even Pirates and whoever doesn't win the West out of the Dodgers/Giants. I just think most of those teams have more talent, especially pitching than the Brewers so it might be best to see what you can get by selling a few pieces.

[MNBrew]

...Weeks had a poor year, but Gomez and Ramirez were both better than expected.

 

They're clearly a worse team than one year ago. Again, I'm glad they aren't splurging on Kyle Lohse or something, but with this staff, things could get ugly.

I totally agree on your ending points (though with the promise of the young pitchers, it's also possible things could go very, very well), but the first quoted sentence.... Yes, of course, Weeks was terrible as he wasn't fully recovered from that badly injured ankle from '11. But from there...

 

- Gomez was better than expected, but only because he'd never come too close to living up to the offensive abilities most anyone in MLB believed he had. But the guy's ceiling has always been super high, so that he finally started to live up to that believed potential doesn't mean a regression is necessarily coming next year given that he's still in the typical "ascent" years before the "standard" peak -- yes, of course he may regress, but I'm asserting that it's hardly a given. (His defense & baserunning were right on par w/ expectations, which very justly were very high.)

 

- Ramirez's 2012 numbers were pretty much right in line with his career norms and he's been extraordinarily consistent, and all the more so when he's played >140 games (8 of the past 12 years ... he missed 187 games in the 4 lowest years, 80 in '09 and averaged about 36 per between '05, '07. & '10 ... granted, more of those "more injured" years are generally more recent, but he's played in 149 each of the past two, so to assume he'll miss major PT is just plain errant (possible, of course, but hardly a sure thing) ... anyway, I digress). So I'd posit that he only exceeded expectations of those who didn't care to believe how consistently good he's been, of those who were convinced his slow start was a harbinger of age-based regression, or, at minimum, of those who didn't believe he was capable of being a Gold-Glove caliber 3B (probably most of us on that last point!).

[Ennder]

Yeah I can't agree that Ramirez was better than expected, expectations were wrong from the beginning. I don't know why people assume he was going to be bad or fall off a cliff but outside of the one isolated injury he had that bridged 2 seasons this is exactly the player he has been for a number of years outside of maybe a little better defense than expected. This year's team isn't clearly worse than last years, it is just much higher variance because it has a lot less experience.

[PrinceFielderx1]

This team scored more runs than any team in the NL in 2012. They didn't lose any significant position player. They can reasonably expect improvement at SS, and 2B, that should offset regression elsewhere. There seems to be some concern that Gomez was a fluke. I think when a player with the immense talent he has starts producing, it's not likely he'll stop. Aoki can be one of the top leadoff hitters in all of baseball. He could contend for a batting title not having to spend time adjusting to a new country. Their pitching staff led the NL in strikeouts last year, and got better after trading Greinke. The bullpen cannot be worse than it was last year. They have payroll flexibility to go out and get a guy at midseason and better yet they have more young arms to use as bait.

 

Personally, I'm far more confident in this team than I was a year ago. I expect this team to contend from day one.

 

 

This is exactly the way I feel. Now is "not" the time to make any significant moves like trading Hart or Ramirez. Right now is the time to keep everything in tact and see what the Brewers young pitching prospects can really do over a full season. I'm ready for Spring Training. Go Brewers!

[monty57]

traded for Segura, which stabilized and "improved" the team

 

So even though this bit of history shows that trading vets for prospects doesn't always "destroy the Brewers chances of contending till at least 2016," why is it that potentially trading Hart and/or Gomez would "destroy the Brewers chances of contending till at least 2016"?

 

I guess it's my belief that while Hart is a good player, he is far from an irreplaceable lynchpin for our team. Our offense survived the loss of Prince Fielder without missing much of a beat. If the right deal came around and we traded Hart, our offense would still be fine. It may cost us a bit, or Gamel may show that he deserves the spot, and we don't slip at all. However, if we could get value comparable to what we received for Greinke, I think it makes sense to make the trade, as we could shore up another position(s) with inexpensive youg talent for six years.

 

As to Gomez, I think Schafer has about even odds of outperforming Gomez this year. After seeing the feeding frenzy around Bourne and Upton (likely upping the value we'd receive from Gomez in trade), I think trading Gomez makes loads of sense.

 

The mentality that we can never make a move looking for the future, and every move has to be to maximize our team's chances right now will lead us to hit a cliff that will lead us to years of rebuild. The Astros are a prime example of the unwillingness to give up on "lifelong Astros" and trying to win during the Bagwell/Biggio window... "we can't waste the last years we'll have the killer B's." They're still trying to dig their way out of their "window" strategy. So are the Cubs. I don't want to go down that road... I like having good Brewer baseball teams to watch.

[Ennder]

What are we going to trade Hart for that will improve the team though? We don't need any position players, we already have young upside pitching to step in. Nobody is going to trade a good established SP for Hart. There just aren't a lot of trades that make any sense for Hart other than to trade him for a prospect that is a year away still. That doesn't improve us for 2013 and there isn't much reason to do it right now rather than mid season if things aren't going well. He has gotten so slow I'm not sure he profiles as an OF anymore and there is at least 1 FA 1B better than him still that teams can just go out and buy if they want. It is going to be very hard to find a realistic deal for Hart.

[monty57]

What are we going to trade Hart for that will improve the team though?

 

I care much more about the long-term benefits to the franchise than I do the absolute maximization of talent in one given year. I feel the return we would receive in trade would benefit the Brewers more long-term than having Hart on the 2013 roster will help the team this year. I'd like to get someone back who would be ready in 2014, when we will really need a lot of league minimum guys on the roster in order to have any chance of fielding a competitive team. That "someone" would then be under Brewer control through at least 2019 for a total cost less than one year of Hart.

 

Right now, with the new "qualifying offer" rules, I think we could get around what we got back in the Greinke trade (a full season of Hart plus comp pick = a partial season of Greinke). If we wait until mid-season, I doubt we'd get nearly that much, as the receiving team wouldn't receive a comp pick, and Hart's not nearly as talented a player as Greinke. Plus, it took disaster to get Melvin/Attanasio to do a mid-season trade, so there's a good chance that we wouldn't do a mid-season trade if there's any chance of the playoffs, so we'd likely lose him for a comp pick at the end of the season. Finally, he could get injured and be untradeable, so we watch him walk for nothing just like Marcum last year.

 

If I had to guess, Melvin will do what you're suggesting, which is to go with Hart as 1B and see how the season progresses. This is certainly the safer route. It will probably make us a little better this year, while costing us long-term.

[RobDeer 45]

Ennder, I'm in the same boat with you. I don't think we can get a whole lot for Hart right now, and not anything that is going to help us this year. That being said I agree with you Monty. I would not mind trading him for a couple upside young guys. We may drop off a bit this year but I don't think it would be that much. If we can get a few guys that could end up helping us in a few years, I'm all for it. I don't think the drop off from Hart to plan B would be that huge in a season where we are not favorites to win the division, so any help to our farm system makes sense to me. I'd be a little gun shy trading him if this was an "all in" year.

[Raw Biz]

I look at what Choo and Shields brought back (I know there were other pieces but still) and the deals that Ross/Upton signed for and I think teams would be willing to give up a pretty good package for Hart. Even if it meant throwing in another A/AA guy, I'd do it if it meant getting back a better package.

[monty57]

I'd be a little gun shy trading him if this was an "all in" year.

 

Agreed, and I think this is where (flawed as it may or may not be) the whole WAR concept really hits. Very rarely is one player is going to take a bad team and make it good. Corey Hart as a RF in 2010 and 2011 had a WAR (baseball-reference) of 3.7 and 3.2. Last year, his WAR was 1.8. He's good, but not an elite talent. Regardless of how accurate these numbers really are, an extra win or two are really important for a team vying for a division title/World Series. They're less important for a team looking to be around .500. Gamel should be able to be better than replacement level over a full season, so a baseline prediction should be that Hart would probably only be worth a win or two more than Gamel over the 2013 season. There's a good chance that it's less than that. That's not even taking into account the money we'd save.

 

Now, how important is having Segura playing for league minimum this season over having to go out and find a veteran SS on the free agent market for $4-8MM? I'm not expecting to bring in the #1 prospect in baseball. If we could bring back something like the value we received in the Greinke trade, we could have "another Segura" in a year or two providing tremendous value. That, to me is worth far more than 1-2 potential wins in 2013.

 

Many talk about how great it is to have Segura manning SS for the foreseeable future, and talk about the "steal" we got when we locked Lucroy up, but then espouse extending Hart rather than trading him. Extending Hart will by nature take away the potential to get "another Segura" for him, and the money spent will potentially disallow us from committing money in "Lucroy-type" signings in the future to guys like Segura and some of the pitchers coming up. We need more Segura-level prospects in the system, and we need more Lucroy-style deals on the MLB roster. We do not need more 30-somethings making eight figure salaries over multiple years unless they are truly elite talent like Braun.

[PrinceFielderx1]

traded for Segura, which stabilized and "improved" the team

 

So even though this bit of history shows that trading vets for prospects doesn't always "destroy the Brewers chances of contending till at least 2016," why is it that potentially trading Hart and/or Gomez would "destroy the Brewers chances of contending till at least 2016"?

 

I guess it's my belief that while Hart is a good player, he is far from an irreplaceable lynchpin for our team. Our offense survived the loss of Prince Fielder without missing much of a beat. If the right deal came around and we traded Hart, our offense would still be fine. It may cost us a bit, or Gamel may show that he deserves the spot, and we don't slip at all. However, if we could get value comparable to what we received for Greinke, I think it makes sense to make the trade, as we could shore up another position(s) with inexpensive youg talent for six years.

 

As to Gomez, I think Schafer has about even odds of outperforming Gomez this year. After seeing the feeding frenzy around Bourne and Upton (likely upping the value we'd receive from Gomez in trade), I think trading Gomez makes loads of sense.

 

The mentality that we can never make a move looking for the future, and every move has to be to maximize our team's chances right now will lead us to hit a cliff that will lead us to years of rebuild. The Astros are a prime example of the unwillingness to give up on "lifelong Astros" and trying to win during the Bagwell/Biggio window... "we can't waste the last years we'll have the killer B's." They're still trying to dig their way out of their "window" strategy. So are the Cubs. I don't want to go down that road... I like having good Brewer baseball teams to watch.

 

The trade for Segura was going to improve the SS position no matter what, because it was a big position of weakness.

 

Oldcity in his original post mentioned trading as much as 5-6 important starters. That's a ton. It will take at least a couple seasons in the majors till the prospects that were traded for can produce like the players they replaced. There it's highly unlikely they will do it right off the bat or perhaps at all. The development process takes time and more time than some people really know.

 

Ask yourself why should we trade Hart right now when everything is set for 2013 and it's looking good? Why take a step back? Why would Mark A take a step back? I believe we all know that Mark A philosophy is to win now with an eye on the future, so contending in 2013 is a must, and so I fail to see why they would take a step back when 2013 is looking good. If it's for salary relief, that can't be a good enough reason due to the fact that the Brewers already got that by lowering their payroll quite a bit, and revenue will be increasing soon. Is it because you think Hart is going to start declining soon? I see no reason to suspect that. He did very well last season. The Brewers aren't going to make a move that really isn't necessary or make a move for the sake of making a move. If Harts asking price isn't extremely expensive and way out of range, then the Brewers will likely pay him the money and keep him. Why change things and risk a down grade?

 

We are running out of reasons to trade Corey Hart.