2013 Brewers Pitching Staff

[TURBO]

Am I the only one who has no faith in Fiers what-so-ever?

 

Just seems like a fluke to me.

 

We shall see, but pinning our hopes on him as a #2 or #3 starter is pretty scary to me...

 

I can only hope he can be productive as our #5.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, because Melvin always publicly tips his hand

 

Yeah, I wouldn't count out anything quite yet. Still not optimistic though. We'll see how it plays out. I could see a trade happening. Not sure if that would involve dealing Hart or prospects though. If it's prospects that would scare me.

[thebruce44]

If we're going with a rotation of all young guys, we need to aggressively start shopping Hart and possibly others as well. Because we'll have no chance to compete.

 

Except of course for last year, when we eventually went with a rotation of all young guys and competed.

 

Last time I checked that wasn't for a full season. And we also had Marcum for part of that run. I'm talking about a full 6 months with a young rotation. It's highly unlikely. Not impossible, but not likely. You can bring up the A's from last year, but they also had a bullpen that performed. Right now our bullpen is looking weak too. That's also just one example. I'm sure they can all pitch to the level of a solid 4 or 5 starter, but I'm skeptical about them all holding up for a full season and pitching well enough to keep us competitive. The Cardinals and Reds are both better right now within the division alone.

 

Last time I checked, you didn't need to be hot for a whole season to compete. And its not like we have 5 guys who haven't ever pitched 200 innings. We've got enough young arms that guys can be subbed in and out to get the necessary innings.

 

We've got:

 

Gallardo (200+)

Estrada (170)

Peralta (200)

Fiers (200)

Rogers (160)

Narvdog (100?)

Thornburg (160)

 

Now, I think they still add a AAAA type guy to team with the rest of the AAA rotation and be ready to come up if needed, but thats a rotation that "could" compete when combined with this offense. To say we have "no chance to compete" is just flat out wrong, especially given what we saw from a very similar rotation last year.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Keep in mind we also have a really weak bullpen currently. We have Axford, who struggled mightily last year as closer. Henderson as a setup man who is still very unproven. Then we have the also unproven Kintzler, slightly better version of Loe in Badenhop, and then one of the starting options as a long man. 2 spots are open for likely two other inexperienced pitchers if no one is signed. The bullpen is probably more troubling than the starting rotation, but both are a concern. I'd feel a lot better if we at least added a few experienced arms to the bullpen, and at least somewhat solidified that area of the club. Because if we are going with the young rotation, we'll need to lean heavily on the pen. With the way it's currently constructed, that could be a disaster as well.

[Eye Black]

Melvin's comments were that once Dempster signed in BOS, the Brewers were done exploring SP. So...it was Dempster or bust the whole time? That's an awful FA plan.

 

I don't believe he is going to just give up on exploring FA pitching options. I do believe however that he doesn't want to get in another situation of tying the team down with a big dollar, multi-year contract to an aging veteran pitcher that will basically be guaranteed a rotation spot regardless of their actual on-field performance. I think they have learned there is value in having the flexibility to alter the rotation without being handcuffed by financial commitments.

[Warning Track Power]

Am I the only one who has no faith in Fiers what-so-ever?

 

Just seems like a fluke to me.

 

We shall see, but pinning our hopes on him as a #2 or #3 starter is pretty scary to me...

 

I can only hope he can be productive as our #5.

 

I agree as well. The way I see our rotation right now is:

 

#2 Gallardo

#4 Estrada

#4 Fiers

#4 Rogers

#4 Peralta

#5 Narveson

 

That's the way I am anticipating the staff to perform in 2013. Yo is a very high end #2 but just short of a true ace. My own expectations about the rest of the staff are for the others to pitch like #4s. Some because of youth (Rogers & Peralta) and others because of regression to what I believe their stuff and makeup makes them (Estrada & Fiers). While I expect Rogers and Peralta to develop into low end #2s or high end #3s, I don't think they will pitch like that in 2013. I hope Estrada and Fiers prove me wrong but I think they will regress into low 4 ERA type pitchers instead of the mid 3 ERA types they were in 2012.

 

We have the makings of a borderline annual playoff team if we pair our offense with a pitching staff with a #2, #3, #3, #4 & #4 after 2013. I think the real key to 2013 and the future though will be to see about finding another #2 who is under control for 2 or more years. If we could acquire an Ian Kennedy-type, I think the Brewers would do well to trade a big league bat and maybe some minor league depth to do so.

[SRB]

One corollary to Melvin's "We aren't going to sign a free agent SP" comments: payroll is at around $70M right now, the stated target is $80M, so where does the final $10M go? Couple relievers and a utility IF maybe?

[thebruce44]

Keep in mind we also have a really weak bullpen currently. We have Axford, who struggled mightily last year as closer. Henderson as a setup man who is still very unproven. Then we have the also unproven Kintzler, slightly better version of Loe in Badenhop, and then one of the starting options as a long man. 2 spots are open for likely two other inexperienced pitchers if no one is signed. The bullpen is probably more troubling than the starting rotation, but both are a concern. I'd feel a lot better if we at least added a few experienced arms to the bullpen, and at least somewhat solidified that area of the club. Because if we are going with the young rotation, we'll need to lean heavily on the pen. With the way it's currently constructed, that could be a disaster as well.

 

Everyone thought we had a good to great bullpen last year. Its awfully hard to predict. Regardless, not signing a SP probably increases the chances more money is spent on the bullpen.

[Ennder]

Whatever pitcher we do or don't sign will only be worth a couple wins so in the long run one pitcher should not make or break the team so a lot of this is being overstated. We aren't a last place team without another starter and we aren't suddenly a 1st place team if we sign someone like Jackson. I'd still like to sign one more guy just so we aren't in a situation where we HAVE to start young guys if they aren't producing. I prefer to have a little bit safer rotation myself.

 

I agree that the bullpen is pretty shaky and to be fair I didn't really think it was going to be that good going into last year either. I'm fine with Axford but there just isn't much depth and that is the type of bullpen that works the best, one with a lot of depth or with a lot of raw young talent. Neither of which we have.

[logan82]

I prefer a bullpen with guys that the manager is willing to switch around if they are not performing to a bullpen with established players. With established players the manager can always hide behind letting experienced guys play to their previous performance like we saw last year with K-Rod.

[jerichoholicninja]

I prefer a bullpen with guys that the manager is willing to switch around if they are not performing to a bullpen with established players. With established players the manager can always hide behind letting experienced guys play to their previous performance like we saw last year with K-Rod.

 

I think your problem there is the manager, not the players.

[logan82]

I prefer a bullpen with guys that the manager is willing to switch around if they are not performing to a bullpen with established players. With established players the manager can always hide behind letting experienced guys play to their previous performance like we saw last year with K-Rod.

 

I think your problem there is the manager, not the players.

Sure it is but most managers will do this. I sucks but you really have to build a pen to cover up bad managing decisions.

[TheCrew07]

Curious why Rogers doesn't project at all for the pen? Seems like his 'stuff' fits with the stereotypical reliever 'stuff'.

 

He does, but your best 5 pitchers should be in the rotation. If a guy doesn't cut it as a starter many times his stuff will "play up" and he'll be better out of the bullpen, like a Gagne.

 

I'm never in favor taking a starter and turning him into a reliever purely because of a perceived need. Starters are simply more valuable than any reliever and to that point I feel closers are the most overrated commodity in baseball.

 

Let pitchers fail as starters then move them to pen. Since I feel that way I'd like Rogers/Peralta/Thornburg and every other starting pitcher who scouts/talent evaluators feel projects as a reliever to be developed as starters anyway. They get more pitches in game to work on their craft over the course of their minor league career and they also get much more bullpen time with a coach to work on mechanics between starts. If they never develop a 3rd pitch or enough control to be a starter then fine, ship em to the pen...

[Oxy]

 

I'm never in favor taking a starter and turning him into a reliever purely because of a perceived need. Starters are simply more valuable than any reliever and to that point I feel closers are the most overrated commodity in baseball.

 

 

The only thing that makes relievers overrated is the fact that their results are almost impossible to predict, which makes signing FA relievers and developing relievers a difficult task. I would say that getting quality results out of your bullpen is one of the most important and underrated aspects of having a championship ballclub. But it is also the final piece to a championship ballclub, not the foundation. A great pitching staff--bullpen included-- will always trump offense.

[monty57]

Over time, some of our prospect pitchers will be forced to the pen, and that's normal. That should allow us to have an inexpensive and flexible (options) bullpen in the near future.

 

I just don't like throwing guys who could be starters into the pen before they're given the chance to sink or swim as starters. As it stands right now, I'd go with Yo, Estrada, Fiers, Peralta, Rogers. In the likely scenario that we add someone else to the mix, I'd probably start Peralta or Fiers at AAA as our "#6 starter," simply because Rogers is out of options and has to be on the MLB roster. If he doesn't cut it as a starter, then send him to the pen. However, if he does well, he will be a much bigger asset to the team now and into the future as a starter.

 

Estrada needs to be in the starting rotation. He has been very effective as a starter for the Brewers. His overall numbers are skewed because he had some ineffective innings as a reliever, but his numbers as a starter are good. If he has another good year, he will of course help the Brewers in 2013, but will also be a good chip to dangle in trade next offseason as more of our prospects force themselves into the MLB rotation.

[fondybrewfan]

All that I can say at the moment is that I am clearly not comfortable relying on the people we have now to complete the rotation and the bullpen. It is an absolute recipe for disaster to count on so many young players. Even if they get no starting pitching help; I do not want the leftovers left to fill out important spots in the bullpen.

[Oxy]

All that I can say at the moment is that I am clearly not comfortable relying on the people we have now to complete the rotation and the bullpen. It is an absolute recipe for disaster to count on so many young players. Even if they get no starting pitching help; I do not want the leftovers left to fill out important spots in the bullpen.

 

I don't think it would be a disaster just because of the pure number of guys they have to fill spots if guys falter badly. Peralta, Rogers, and Fiers all got significant time in the bigs last year and performed very admirably, so there isn't really a reason to believe that all of them will blow up this year. And if one or two guys do implode, we should be able to fill in the spots with Narveson, Thornburg, or even Jungmann, Nelson or Burgos.

 

Sure, it's not like the staff is stacked for the playoffs, but I think that there are enough guys with enough upside to believe that one or two of them might really work out well. For some guys it just clicks when they step on the mound in a MLB stadium. They thrive on being in the spotlight. Plus, I think having lots of young arms available to step up for a good team simultaneously provides great competition and opportunity for success without a lot of pressure to succeed since the expectations for any one of them aren't sky high. I think Estrada and Fiers will be solid if unspectacular, and one of Rogers or Peralta might have an outstanding year. Also, I think it would be a lot of fun to follow as the season progresses.

[JohnBriggs12]

All that I can say at the moment is that I am clearly not comfortable relying on the people we have now to complete the rotation and the bullpen. It is an absolute recipe for disaster to count on so many young players. Even if they get no starting pitching help; I do not want the leftovers left to fill out important spots in the bullpen.

 

The A's won 94 games last season with Tommy Milone (31), Jarrod Parker (29), Travis Blackley (15), A.J. Griffin (15), Tyson Ross (13), and Dan Straily (7) starting 110 of their 162 games. Prior to last year those guys had combined 37 major league starts. Estrada has almost that many by himself.

 

Washington had arguably the best rotation in the NL but not a heck of a lot of experience either. I'll take talent over experience any day.

[fondybrewfan]

I am not advocating signing or trading for someone just because; they obviously have to be worth it. I am not even all that worried about the starters; it is filling out the 7th and 8th inning with guys that DM and RR didn't feel were good enough to make the rotation that scares me. Badenhop, Axford, and Henderson alone is a horrible bullpen and then we are adding rotation cast offs to that; no thank you. Thankfully we do have some flamethrowers that could make a difference; doesn't mean I am not going to be scared until they show they can actually get MLB hitters out.

[brewmann04]

don't forget Kintzer

[jerichoholicninja]

It seems like there are two parties here when it comes to the young starters. One party worries they will all fail. The other feels they will all succeed. Well, you're both wrong. The odds of them all failing aren't that much different than them all succeeding. I see no harm is letting them all continue to start (whether at MLB or AAA) and letting the their performance sort it all out.

 

I feel that Doug should put away the checkbook and hang up the phone until the end of January. At that time there will be a few guys looking for jobs on the cheap and some teams that want to trade pitching to fill holes. If he can make something happen, great. If not, you play the hand you're dealt.

[brewcrewdue80]

After reading on a Tim Stauffer suggestion.

My wonder is on Jeff Karstens? He was non-tendered due to only make 4mil.? ERA has been under 4 last 2 seasons. 3.54 in 41 starts. He had better than 4k-1bb ratio last year. 9 of 15starts were quality starts 2 were left over injury at a combined line:1.1 8H 6ER Taken away from his season stats he has a 3.43ERA. and its 9/13quality starts, 7of which completed 7ip or more. 2011 he had a 3.38era with 14/26 QS 8 of 7ip+ 1CG. CG SHO on 83pitches. Many of his 7ip stints also fell in the lines of 87-94pitch counts. I feel like the term "Crafty" comes to mind when being able to keep pitch counts low. Something that maybe he can provide some insight to this staff. We all know how high Gallardo's counts get, Peralta would seem to follow his mold.

Oh, the Pittsburgh blogs I read aren't in favor of losing Karstens, questioning it. I guess with their young staff and low payroll 4mil was too high for them. People wanted McCarthy(me being one) I think Karstens follows the kind of outings McCarthy provides you. Honestly, why is he still on the market? 4mil is nothing on a 3.54era starter?

[brosto1]

I think Estrada is being undervalued by many. I feel comfortable in him producing 180-200 quality innings next year with an excellent K:BB ratio. I don't feel quite as comfortable expecting Fiers to produce as well since it was his first time facing many teams, but he has also produced at each level good control and high strike out rates so maybe he will continue to prove people wrong. I do think Fiers will be solid, just not expecting the year he had last year.

 

Rogers and Peralta are the two wildcards, Rogers due to health concerns and Peralta due to his youth and inconsistency. If the two of them can combine for 25-28 QS I see no reason why that wouldn't be enough to keep them in enough games to compete next year. The simplest way to put it is they lost Greinke and Wolf and may be replaced by Rogers and Peralta. Neither will be as good as Greinke, but I feel just as confident that neither will be as bad as Wolf. Tale of the Tape may be a push when considering just how awful Wolf was last year for his 24 starts.

[Ennder]

The A's won 94 games last season with Tommy Milone (31), Jarrod Parker (29), Travis Blackley (15), A.J. Griffin (15), Tyson Ross (13), and Dan Straily (7) starting 110 of their 162 games. Prior to last year those guys had combined 37 major league starts. Estrada has almost that many by himself.

 

Washington had arguably the best rotation in the NL but not a heck of a lot of experience either. I'll take talent over experience any day.

 

The A's started the year with Braden, Colon, McCarthy and knowing that Anderson would be back at some point. They had a pretty established rotation and the young guys were the fallback.

 

Washington is a pretty good comparison before they signed Jackson which is the same type of move they made to add depth last year.

[BrewCrewForever]

Bill James projections for 2013 look pretty good for Estrada and Fiers. Doesn't mean they will meet those projections but it is fun to think about. You can check them out at Fangraphs.