James Shields and Wade Davis to Royals

[reillymcshane]

Dave Cameron on Myers for Shields from last month:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wil-myers-and-the-trap-of-filling-a-need/

This article nails the big issue with this trade. It's a poor deal for the Royals because now they simply will give Francoeur 500-600 plate appearances. Sure you upgrade your pitching. But you're doing at ruining your chance to dramatically improve RF.

 

Dave Cameron said it best in the article - "Trading Myers for Shields doesn’t make them (the Royals) better. It just makes them differently bad."

 

To top this off, KC is throwing in their best pitching prospect (Odorizzi). And they even get a former top 20 prospect (Montgomery) who has struggled the last year or two, but is one of those guys that you don't want to give up on too soon.

 

This is an awful trade for KC because the simple fact is they are not a starting pitcher or two away from competing. Myers had the chance to be a superior power hitting outfielder. Now they have Francoeur. I suspect that Moore must be feeling the heat to win. I realize a starting rotation of Chen, Guthrie, Odorizzi, Santana and Hochevar wasn't going to win you any championships. But does one of Wade Davis, Guthrie, Shields, Santana and Hochevar or Chen? And let's not forget it's Francoeur in the lineup everyday instead of Myers.

 

Oh well, not my team.

[danzig6767]

While this trade sure does look bad for KC, the wild card for them in this trade could end up being Wade Davis.

 

He was great out of the pen last year and if he can manage to pitch at least somewhat close to that as a starter for the Royals, that would be huge given he's under team control for another five years i believe.

[Ennder]

I'm not as down on this trade as most, mostly because I don't think Myers will end up being a super star. I also think the Tigers are a high 80s win team and not much more so the AL central is up for grabs still since it is a pretty awful division. I wouldn't have done it if I were the Royals but I don't think it is as awful as suggested. For the Rays it is a great deal though since they are trading from a position of depth and got exactly what they needed, high upside prospects who will stay cheap for a long time.

[Invader3K]

I'm really not sure if this is a good or bad move for Kansas City. I know the term "going for it" gets way overused in baseball, but at some point, that's basically what teams have to do. I do think they maybe gave up a bit more than they should have, but their minor league system is so loaded right now that does it really matter?

[torts]

im glad someone in the AL Central did this and not someone in the NL Central.

[JohnBriggs12]

If Moustakas and Hosmer put up the kind of numbers they are capable of, this Royal team is a contender at least for a wild card. They have talent up and down the lineup and their starting pitching should be greatly improved over the what they had last year.

 

Ultimately, though, they still have Ned Yost as their manager, and that will doom them regardless.

[patrickgpe]

I'm really not sure if this is a good or bad move for Kansas City. I know the term "going for it" gets way overused in baseball, but at some point, that's basically what teams have to do. I do think they maybe gave up a bit more than they should have, but their minor league system is so loaded right now that does it really matter?

 

I understand that an ace who is not in his walk year is not available in July and that I agree at some point you have to stop stock piling prospects and actually do something at the big league level. I also understand that the AL central was pretty down last year and that maybe the Royals feel like this makes them contenders. If it works, I don't think most royal fans will mind. in 2008 I thought giving up La Porta would hurt us for years but if CC got us into the playoffs I really didn't care what he did.

[wisniewski]

2 perspectives...

 

This is a great example of a desperate GM making a move to save his job. I get the Royals are loaded with prospects, but that's still no excuse to give up 3 of your top 4 (arguably) best prospects for a decent #2 starter. It seems a little excessive.

 

All that said, from the other side of things I agree with the post above mine here that at some point a GM has to go for it, and clearly Moore is going doing just that. That division isn't very good and I think Moore sees a legit opportunity. Rosenthal had this particular take in his column this morning. That, while these prospects are highly touted they haven't really achieved anything at the big league level so it's hard to say what they'll do for the Rays. Yes, on paper it looks fantastic...but as that cliche goes...the games aren't played on paper. (unless you're an APBA nerd). At some point teams have to stop shooting for Baseball America's 'top prospect ranks' and start being more concerned with the actual MLB team, on the field, you are GM'ing.

 

And great LaPorta analogy.

[fondybrewfan]

I'll go along with everyone else saying that this makes no sense for the Royal. This was a 72 win team last year; with this move maybe it at best gets them to around .500 or slightly above. This by no means makes them a championship contending team and they just traded two elite prospects with 6 years of control.

 

It be one thing if the Royals were an 85 win team now and just needed to get over that hump (Similar to the Grienke & Marcum deals at MIL) but there team still doesn't look good enough to compete with Detroit let alone the rest of the AL.

[logan82]

A slightly above .500 team may be good enough to win the AL Central.

[monty57]

Dollarbill...not yet.

 

If the kids show they can pitch the team through a full season this year, then next winter, I would absolutely consider dealing Yo.

 

Look at what the A's got for Gio Gonzalez last year, and now what Tampa got for Shields - there's no reason not to want Yo here, but if you can get a big package of controllable talent for him, why not?

 

That pretty much sums it up for me. The Brewers are starting to look like a team that could be in for an extended cycle where young starting pitchers are forcing their way into the MLB rotation, allowing us to trade away more expensive "proven" guys who are nearing the end of their contract to replenish the farm. We're not quite there yet, but could be soon.

 

This trade showcases how difficult it is for a team/GM to stick to a plan of patiently waiting to reap the fruit from a stocked farm system. As soon as it's nearly ready, it's really easy to trade it away to "win now." Meanwhile Tampa has shown that if you show some patience and execute the plan to fruition, you can beat the system and remain competitive even with a low payroll. You never need to "go all in" if you continue to execute your plan.

[brewcrewdue80]

Dave Cameron on Myers for Shields from last month:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wil-myers-and-the-trap-of-filling-a-need/

This article nails the big issue with this trade. It's a poor deal for the Royals because now they simply will give Francoeur 500-600 plate appearances. Sure you upgrade your pitching. But you're doing at ruining your chance to dramatically improve RF.

 

Dave Cameron said it best in the article - "Trading Myers for Shields doesn’t make them (the Royals) better. It just makes them differently bad."

 

To top this off, KC is throwing in their best pitching prospect (Odorizzi). And they even get a former top 20 prospect (Montgomery) who has struggled the last year or two, but is one of those guys that you don't want to give up on too soon.

 

This is an awful trade for KC because the simple fact is they are not a starting pitcher or two away from competing. Myers had the chance to be a superior power hitting outfielder. Now they have Francoeur. I suspect that Moore must be feeling the heat to win. I realize a starting rotation of Chen, Guthrie, Odorizzi, Santana and Hochevar wasn't going to win you any championships. But does one of Wade Davis, Guthrie, Shields, Santana and Hochevar or Chen? And let's not forget it's Francoeur in the lineup everyday instead of Myers.

 

Oh well, not my team.

 

I think KC has more faith in a playoff run then others do on them. Wade Davis is solid as pitcher just bogged down with Tampas supply of Starting pitching.

 

The Francoeur bashing. The Royals had him at #5 much of the season, there's expectations there that he didn't fulfil. Cain was out, Moustakas was breaking in. The Royals won't put Francoeur at 5 in lineup and he's one batter to throw in the 8/9 now. Honestly Francoeur was a guy at 15/15level and he just had a season long slump, Adam Dunn style. Dunn bounced back. There's most likely a bounceback from him, as well as Hosmer much like we talk of Weeks.

The Royals also may not be done. Swisher is still out there it wouldn't surprise me if they went on a run at him.

I don't see a World Series team in KC but I definitely won't rule them out on winning the Central. Poster above me stated the Sabathia run was worth the loss in prospects to win the title. This is KC's version

[Outlander]

The Brewers were halfway through their season and 10 games over 500 when they traded for Sabathia, the Royals have given no indication they can field a winning team so it is a bad comparison. The best the Royals can hope for out of this trade is trading Shields at the trade deadline this year or next. Bad move.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Francoeur bashing. The Royals had him at #5 much of the season, there's expectations there that he didn't fulfil. Cain was out, Moustakas was breaking in. The Royals won't put Francoeur at 5 in lineup and he's one batter to throw in the 8/9 now. Honestly Francoeur was a guy at 15/15level and he just had a season long slump, Adam Dunn style. Dunn bounced back. There's most likely a bounceback from him, as well as Hosmer much like we talk of Weeks.

 

If Francoeur is hitting anywhere 1-9 on a regular basis you have a problem. But I guess the Brewers did make the playoffs with Yuni starting everyday.

[TheCrew07]

Obviously not being a fan of "win now" trades I don't like this deal for the Royals, it makes no sense from a talent standpoint, unless they are sure Montgomery will be no better than Wade Davis. I've liked Shields for a long time and loved the originality in his contract when it was signed, but he's only under control for 2 years. Davis is probably a league average starting pitcher, he's good enough to be in plenty of rotations around baseball, but both of Montgomery and Odorizzi profile to be better than Davis and Montgomery has all the tools to be a #1 if he can straighten out whatever was wrong in his head last season.

 

I cannot fathom the reason for giving up Myers though, my goodness, Odorizzi and Montgomery should have been enough from a talent standpoint. Luckily for me I'm very fond of the Rays and this deal adds 2 more high upside arms and an impact bat to their organization for an aging finesse starter and a reliever. Friedman has been/is doing a heck of job cycling impact pitching through that organization.

[reillymcshane]

Great write up by John Sickels at Minor League Ball on the deal.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/12/10/3750830/apocalypse-now-royals-rays-dayton-moore-shields-myers-trade

 

Some interesting comments, including, "There are vague rumors that the front office wasn't impressed with Myers' makeup and didn't consider him a team player."

 

Sickels doesn't like the deal. Pretty much feels KC gave up way too much.

[nate82]

I would have traded Gallardo and Fiers/Peralta for this package. For 2013 the Brewers would go from a .500 team to a below .500 team. Not really all that big of a loss. This would then have set the Brewers up for a run in 2014-2019.

[Rillo]

Without taking too much of a look at their Minor League depth that they have remaining, if KC is really going for it this year, they still don't have a second basemen. With the Brewers trying to free up money, do you think they pieces are there to still get a good return from a potentially desperate GM (despite Rickie's first half last year)? And then would Green or Scooter suffice as a starter for the season?

[logan82]

If their offense was a lot better this trade would make some sense. It really looks like they jumped the gun by at least a year or two.

[dlk9s]

Grunching:

 

Just contract the Royals now. They have no idea what is going on in this world.

[jjfanec]

Great write up by John Sickels at Minor League Ball on the deal.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/12/10/3750830/apocalypse-now-royals-rays-dayton-moore-shields-myers-trade

 

Some interesting comments, including, "There are vague rumors that the front office wasn't impressed with Myers' makeup and didn't consider him a team player."

 

Sickels doesn't like the deal. Pretty much feels KC gave up way too much.

 

Interesting that he said he only sees Odorizzi as a number 3 starter.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I would have traded Gallardo and Fiers/Peralta for this package. For 2013 the Brewers would go from a .500 team to a below .500 team. Not really all that big of a loss. This would then have set the Brewers up for a run in 2014-2019.

 

Just my personal opinion, but I fully believe after what I've seen from Wily Peralta that he is going to be a star Ace for the Brewers. I wouldn't trade him for anybody, period. If the Brewers do trade him I will be upset no matter the return. He should be labeled untouchable.

[brewcrewdue80]

wow, a lot of low faith on young talent. Surprising when theres a bunch of faith in the Brewers young talent.

 

I don't know how the lineup will shape but:

 

Cain-of

Escobar-ss

Hosmer-1b

Butler-dh

Gordon-of

Moustakas-3b

Perez-c

2b

Francoeur who in 2011 had: .285/.329/.476 slash

47 2bs 20HRs 22SBs 87Rbis 77Runs scored

 

And he's being bashed because of last year.

 

Take Shields 2011 vs. 2012 even though 2012 was still fairly strong.

11CGs! Almost 250IP 225ks and a 2.82ERA on that 249.1IP

I don't get how Jackson is wanted said to be a #2 yet show me that kind of season from him? Meanwhile Shields isn't an ace? Gallardo cant put up that season! Shields is a huge asset to the Royals in what I've always thought is a weak hitting Central. See Detroit WS.

Like I said Watch the Royals make the Post Season 2013. as they stand now.

 

Do I agree with the trade for the Royals. If you want a Playoff berth with the offensive pieces you have now. Yes.

Long term? Obviously no. I figure 18years of prospect player control to 6years with Shields making as much for his 2 as the three lost probably will combine for the next 4. Add to it you have Butler and Gordon through 2015. Hosmer,Moustakas,Cain,Escobar,Perez beyond 2015 and Meyers would have been as well beyond 2015. That's a solid 8player lineup to wait for a 2014/2015 run. But again, I feel this is all on a plan that 2013/2014 KC can win now before the big FA year comes in arms, before the Yankees spend again. Angels/Rangers lost Grienke. To me eyeballing the AL KC as did Tor is trying to seize the opportunity where the normal powers are weaker. They still have to beat Detroit and that's very questionable. 2 year window. Coincides with Shields contract. Let's watch how it plays out.

 

Those bats play to an avg year on ability I'd say they're better than the Brewers Lineup. Perez a full season? look out!

[The stache]

So, let me get this straight.

 

The Rays have the following starting pitchers available to choose from:

 

David Price (Cy Young Award winner)

Jeremy Hellickson (2011 AL Rookie of the year)

Matt Moore (may be better than both Hellickson and Price)

Jake Odorizzi

Taylor Guerrieri

Mike Montgomery (wanna bet the Rays coaches get him back on track??)

Chris Archer

 

Are you freaking kidding me?

 

If Evan Longoria can stay healthy, Longoria, Desmond Jennings and Wil Myers give them a hell of a core, not to mention a guy I like that might be at the majors within a year, Mikie Mahtook.

 

The AL East was tough enough as it was. The Blue Jays and Rays have both bolstered their talent base in a big way.

[Ennder]

The Royals gave a lot of AB to some of the worst players in baseball last year. Dumping Francoeur is the most obvious upgrade they could make, dumping Betancourt helps too. Having Hosmer play more to expectations is another big upgrade as is having a healthy Perez and Cain all year. Their rotation was just awful last year and didn't look like it would be much better this year considering these are pretty established awful pitchers. This team could easily jump to a winning team with just a couple more moves.