Brewers Have Considered Trading Hart

[nate82]

what about hart to texas? they need to upgrade at of and 1b badly after hamilton and napoli signed elsewhere.

 

 

You may be able to pry Buckel and Odor away for Corey Hart. Personally I would take this. I don't see them offering up Martin Perez since he's very close (especially since they've lost out on a ton of pitching this offseason). I also don't see them offering up Mike Olt at this point.

 

You might be able to get Profar and Perez for Gallardo and Hart but probably more along the lines of Andrus and Perez for that trade. The Mariners would be another team I could see going after Hart. Liddi and a low level prospect is probably close to what you could expect.

 

The Phillies make sense a Brown for Hart swap would be fair. But that is not going to happen unless Hart waives his no trade clause and I don't see that happening at all.

[narwhalattack]

If only Dayton Moore ran the Mariners. Then the Brewers would be trading Hart and Thornburg for Walker, Paxton, and Hultzen.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's not just one year of hart though. Until the first game of next season you have to factor in the comp pick.

Isn't this what we thought with Shaun Marcum though? Now he is walking for nothing. If Hart has an injury plagued year or even a down year it's not a given that we will be willing to offer him a one year deal worth $14 million or whatever it will be.

 

The Choo deals helps Milwaukee. If someone asks about Hart Melvin can say "look Cleveland got Trevor Bauer for Sin Soo Choo so you'd better be willing to pay up". Is there anyone here who wouldn't have traded Hart for Bauer? That is the kind of deal to look for and as has been stated before, it only takes one GM willing to make the deal.

 

I think he was saying that to state that Hart's trade value would be improved because the team who trades for Hart could also get the comp pick if the trade is done this offseason.

 

I do agree that the Choo deal helps the Brewers if they are looking to trade Hart. I'd be really happy with a Top 10 prospect in return for Hart, so I would hope that Melvin uses the Choo deal as leverage and lands someone who can be a core player for Milwaukee for a long time.

If you can get Trevor Brauer for Sin Soo Choo I'd be really curious as to what we could get for Hart. I'd offer him to Seattle for one of their 3 stud pitching prospects. Their offense if really, really hurting.

 

Comparing Bauer for Choo when Arizona wanted Bauer Out is a huge difference to Milwaukee and Hart. Milwaukee has discussed keeping Hart. Bauer was a bad apple in ARZ and they took a deal to get rid of him. Hart will not bring back the same return you are hoping for.

And the QO system blows. It makes it even worse for small market clubs to make QOs as the risk of taking a 1yr deal of the player when they dont really want to pay that player the "Required amount" gives that club all the more reason not to make that QO. It explains why Marcum wasn't QO.

The idea was to help small market clubs with compensation for losing players to FA to Big Markets. But its the Big Markets who can afford to QO any FA while a small market has to choose whether or not to risk the offer and thus when they don't lose a pick. Down the road the Big Markets are not only going to be signing FAs but building their farm system with the added draft pick compensation small markets are no longer getting. The idea of it being based on avg pay of top 125players is absurd and the top 20 should at least be removed from that equation as then the value on the QOs would be somewhat more reasonable when you take top 20 vs #s126-145

 

Edit: adding

That also the QO was at 13mil this year. Which seems to have added what the going rate is now on FA market all over the place. Signing a player for one year and the QO would become 13mil+ the next makes it all the easier to just ask for 13mil now and next year/3rd since both will be less than a QO come 2014/2015

[paul253]

I think Texas would be a good trade partner. If you want pitching they have it (Grimm or Buckel would be nice targets). If you want hitting they have it (I'd ask for Gallo, Martin or Odor). Most likely some sort of combination. Buckel and Odor would be good but I'd take a combo of any of the above names.

[Eye Black]

I think Texas would be a good trade partner. If you want pitching they have it (Grimm or Buckel would be nice targets). If you want hitting they have it (I'd ask for Gallo, Martin or Odor). Most likely some sort of combination. Buckel and Odor would be good but I'd take a combo of any of the above names.

Texas seems less willing to part with top prospects compared to other teams with a handful of top 150 prospects. Still, I do think they would consider some of the guys you mentioned like Perez and Buckel. Odor is intriguing, a much greater potential for high risk/reward than the others. Gallo (who is not currently eligible to be traded) was someone I really liked going into last year's draft, but I don't think the Brewers were quite as high on him (or at least concerned about his signability).

[nate82]

 

 

And the QO system blows. It makes it even worse for small market clubs to make QOs as the risk of taking a 1yr deal of the player when they dont really want to pay that player the "Required amount" gives that club all the more reason not to make that QO. It explains why Marcum wasn't QO.

The idea was to help small market clubs with compensation for losing players to FA to Big Markets. But its the Big Markets who can afford to QO any FA while a small market has to choose whether or not to risk the offer and thus when they don't lose a pick. Down the road the Big Markets are not only going to be signing FAs but building their farm system with the added draft pick compensation small markets are no longer getting. The idea of it being based on avg pay of top 125players is absurd and the top 20 should at least be removed from that equation as then the value on the QOs would be somewhat more reasonable when you take top 20 vs #s126-145

 

Edit: adding

That also the QO was at 13mil this year. Which seems to have added what the going rate is now on FA market all over the place. Signing a player for one year and the QO would become 13mil+ the next makes it all the easier to just ask for 13mil now and next year/3rd since both will be less than a QO come 2014/2015

 

The QO system is bad now but not for any of the reasons you stated at all and Marcum is a horrible example as he got injured. I don't believe Marcum would have been offered arbitration in the old system just like he wasn't offered a QO. This had nothing to do with the QO system it had more to do with him being hurt and playing poorly.

 

Now there is some good in the new QO system mainly for teams that sign multiple players who have been offered a qualifying offer. Lets go back to when the Yankees signed Sabathia, Teixeira, and Burnett. Now lets imagine Sabathia and Teixeira were eligible for a qualifying offer in that year the Yankees would have had to give up their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks. Each team losing those players would all get compensation picks after the 1st round instead of 1 team getting a 1st round pick another getting a sandwich pick and another getting a pick in the 3rd round I believe it was. So lets go to the future here the Angels just lost their 1st round pick as it is now gone and now lets say they sign Lohse to a contract they just lost their 2nd round pick with the Cardinals picking up a compensation pick. This also hurts the Angels in another way as they just lost money they can now spend in the draft their draft pool money has now been decreased considerably.

[narwhalattack]

So far this offseason there's been some pretty outrageous trades.

 

The Rays get Myers, Odorizzi, and Montgomery for Shields and Davis.

 

The Indians get Bauer for Choo

 

Mets get D'Arnaud and Syndergaard for Dickey and Thole.

 

The pattern's pretty similar, one team trades good established players who are close to free agency to get very good prospects. Hart seems to follow a similar profile of a veteran who does well and is close to free agency. If the pattern continues, then the Brewers could net some pretty good prospects if they do decide to trade Hart. I hope Melvin isn't stubbornly going win-now and actually considers the idea of trading Hart. Doesn't mean that he HAS to, but if someone gives him a good offer, he at least would have to consider it.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't see the point in trading a key cog in the lineup like Hart. Of course I want to 'win now'. The bottom line is that Hart won't bring as much as the pitching has on the trade market. You aren't going to get a front line pitching prospect, so what do you get, some second line prospect(s) or a position player prospect? Frankly, I think that the Brewers have enough good but not great pitching prospects at this point, and I also don't see a position of true organizational need either, so why weaken the lineup? I could maybe see the salary clearing to get someone else angle, but who is there that won't come with an insane price tag?

[pogokat]

Yeah, If anything, this offseason has showed how valuable a guy like Hart really is...just watch a clearly inferior Adam LaRoche get a multi year deal worth 30 million...Hart is a deal in the current climate, and if he would resign at his current rate, the Brewers should really think about it

[jerichoholicninja]

Yeah, If anything, this offseason has showed how valuable a guy like Hart really is...just watch a clearly inferior Adam LaRoche get a multi year deal worth 30 million

 

LaRoche Career

.268/.338/.482/.820

OPS+ 114

Exceptional Defense

 

Hart Career

.276/.334/.491/.824/

OPS+ 116

Exceptional Height

 

I fail to see which one is "clearly inferior".

[reillymcshane]

Yeah, If anything, this offseason has showed how valuable a guy like Hart really is...just watch a clearly inferior Adam LaRoche get a multi year deal worth 30 million

 

LaRoche Career

.268/.338/.482/.820

OPS+ 114

Exceptional Defense

 

Hart Career

.276/.334/.491/.824/

OPS+ 116

Exceptional Height

 

I fail to see which one is "clearly inferior".

 

Unless you're discussing the entire career of the players, to use stats from from 5-10 years ago is really not a good way to judge the value of a player at this moment.

 

I think looking at the last three years is probably a far more fair way to compare the players.

[pogokat]

Hart's average OPS+ over last three years: 128

 

Laroche: 95

 

in fact, Hart's average is equal to Laroche's best..

 

so, i stand by my statement

[monty57]

The pattern's pretty similar, one team trades good established players who are close to free agency to get very good prospects.

 

Agreed

 

The bottom line is that Hart won't bring as much as the pitching has on the trade market. You aren't going to get a front line pitching prospect, so what do you get, some second line prospect(s) or a position player prospect?

 

Choo brought back Bauer. No one is remotely saying "dump Hart for anything just to free up salary." Markets change, and "universal rules" on trade value only apply until the market changes. Never assume that what is overvalued one year will remain overvalued. Small sample, but it appears we're moving from a period where top prospects with team control were the most valueable commodity in baseball to a point where "proven" is becoming more valueable relative to prospects. That's likely due to the massive inflow of new money into the system. GM's with extra money to spend (generally under a limited term contract with a lot of pressure to "win now") are tripping over themselves to see who can spend the fastest. I'd expect that as the "money supply" evens out over the next couple of seasons, salaries will normalize, but right now looks like a good time to shop a proven vet with an undervalued contract for a top prospect. I don't even care so much about the position, just that we would get a top talent who will be under Brewers control for six years.

 

and if he would resign at his current rate, the Brewers should really think about it

 

Why on earth would he do that? He may sign a "team friendly" deal, giving a slight discount to market rate, but there's no way he's signing another deal for $10MM/season when "clearly inferior" players are signing for more than that. We will already have around half our payroll going to Ramirez and Braun in 2014, while paying eight figure salaries to Weeks and Yo. Extending Hart (without trading Braun, Yo, Ramirez or Weeks) would really tie our hands financially for the foreseeable future.

 

If we truly think we are a World Series team this year, then we should hold onto Hart and Gomez, add some pitching and go for it. If we do not think we are a World Series team this season, we should seriously consider trading Hart and Gomez for good, high-upside young talent who will make us younger, better and less expensive for the next half a decade plus. There is someone out there who thinks they'd have a World Series team if only they could land a 30 HR guy, and the current trend hints that they would be willing to give up prospects for that shot at glory.

[reillymcshane]

Hart's average OPS+ over last three years: 128

 

Laroche: 95

 

in fact, Hart's average is equal to Laroche's best..

 

so, i stand by my statement

LaRoche's 2011 season should probably be looked at more as an aberration - he hit .172 in 43 games, playing injured the entire season injured before finally undergoing surgery. Ultimately, it turned out he had a torn labrum and a partially torn rotator cuff. You can't discount 2011 entirely (in fact, the injury he had might be something to be worried about). But it really skews the whole 3 year comparison approach.

 

No matter - even throwing out 2011, and just using LaRoche's 2010 and 2012 numbers, Hart's produced more. The OPS+ average for Corey (as noted by Pogokat) is 128. LaRoche put up OPS+ of 106 and 128 in 2010 and 12.

 

LaRoche is also older by 3 years - and (this is strictly my opinion) approaching sloth-like skills on the basepaths. Okay, maybe that's a little overdoing it, but LaRoche is not a good runner. Corey doesn't have the speed he used to, but for a 1st baseman, he's not to bad.

[brewcrewdue80]

My trade value of Hart to Texas for Brewers would be Perez plus a mid level prospect/probably a bullpen type that Brewers could look at using. Lefty Starter the Brewers could use on their payroll. He may not be any better than Narveson in performance this year but upside beyond seems much higher and Brewers could easily run Perez out there for 20+starts this year whereas Texas may only get him 7-12. That to me makes having Hart a better proposition for Texas for this year than developing Perez

[MNBrew]

I like that Hart/Texas logic. If that's a viable return, I'd be pleased.

 

That'd also still leave Gomez as a potentially tradeable commodity for whom DM could prioritize a bat in return rather than a pitcher.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm repeating myself from back when we were debating trading Greinke to Texas, but I don't get the love for Martin Perez. Yes, he's young, but what exactly has he accomplished to achieve his status? He doesn't even have the type of stuff that would profile him as a top of the rotation guy, plus he's had control issues. What am I missing here? No way would I trade Hart for him unless we are talking a deadline deal with the Brewers out of the race.

[brewcrewdue80]

Minor League Baseball ranks him 3rd best Lefty Starter Prospect behind Hultzen and Skaggs. Scouting is he has 3 Plus pitches rated for Major League Level. Cant let a spotty showing on Rangers when hes taken from Starter role in AAA to a Spot Start/bullpen/oh here's another couple spot starts results as how well you project he's capable of pitching. The idea of trading for him is he wont be FA eligible until 2019 and isn't arb eligible until 2016!

 

Think about that for a second. 6years of a potentially solid starter. And in those combined 6years he wont earn as much as Hart will earn in 2013 alone. If Perez lives up to his hype you are probably looking at near 1000innings pitched sub 4era for 6years service under 11mil locked down on the team's starting rotation ages 22-27.

 

This is the type of deal that can make or break a small market club. If you see a guy with control issues that may never live up to his true potential then if Rangers feel the same way they don't fret dealing him away. But if Perez does get better control and becomes a #2-3 pitcher for at least 4 years giving 2years to develop That is a huge gain by the Brewers at a value cost. The biggest hype I read was a potential Johan Santana comparison but he has to control those 3pitches he has. If he were to live to the Santana hype those final 3-4years before hitting FA plain and simple this would be a move that when Brewers make playoffs in those years will be looked at as a big key to their success by taking on the belief in Perez's peripherals and not getting stuck on his control issues.

 

Add on is if he will be 27 heading to 28 FA year, I would expect should Perez show an ability to perform by 2016/17 a long term extension say to 2021/22 meaning owning him through all of his prime pitching years.

 

1year of Hart or up to say 10years of owning a lefty starter who's ceiling is a #1/strong2 and floor as a solid 4. When I look at it with the fan forum's projections of Brewers not winning more than 85 games/ likely missing playoffs then, whats the point in 1 more solid year with Hart when it's going to be wasted when you can gain many solid years of a starter to match up well with all of years of remaining owning Braun? Lock up a piece like Braun that can net the team wins long term is where I'm at.

[brewcrewdue80]

Late sept pregame scouting on him on Rangers blog. Remember he's 21 pitching in the ML

 

SCOUTING THE STARTERS

 

Rangers starter LHP Martin Perez (1-1, 3.38 ERA) will be making his first start since holding Boston to a run on July 24. After three appearances to get his feet wet in the first half, Perez has pitched extremely well in a limited role for the Rangers. Since the All-Star break, he has allowed just three runs in 17 1/3 innings (1.56 ERA). The last time out, he pitched 4 1/3 no-hit innings in relief against Seattle in relief of Scott Feldman.

 

Matchup of note: Counting a one-inning mid-July relief appearance, Perez has not allowed a hit in 5 1/3 innings to Seattle, a total of 15 at-bats. He’s allowed two walks and has hit a batter.

 

 

There's your idea on his flashes of brilliance that can be had. And I always believe in many prospects in improving in the 21-27age he's at. If I were the Rangers owning Perez I'd think Hart for Perez straightup wasn't enough from the Brewers! 6years of a high end prospect vs. 1FA year of an aging Hart? But on a winning now team it makes sense to take Hart on. I could envision Perez being more Valuable than Hart though by 2014 already if he can pitch sub 3.8era and 170+inn on 30starts. which is why trading Hart vs. extending him seems like a legit idea.

[Kelbysdaddy]

if we could get perez straight up for hart that would be a WIN! i'd do hart and a low minors pitcher(stosh/barnes/medlin/ect..) for perez.

[endaround]

Perez doesn't have any control. Not to say it won't ever come around, but he has shown no improvement in his second year in AAA. If I was the Rangers I'd ship Perez now while people are still in love with his tools.

[brewcrewdue80]

My question is who is out there left that would want Hart for a season?

[Kelbysdaddy]

Texas still needs help. Baltimore still seems like they'd be a fit.

[brewcrewdue80]

In Texas, it would seem like a decent fit now that Swisher is gone. Do the Brewers obtain Olt?

Here's a scenario, send both Gomez and Hart for Olt,Perez and something like Martin or Gentry to cover CF with Schafer? and added prospects?

 

This is in regards to not signing Bourn for Texas taking a cheaper Gomez maybe throw him an extension worth 10-12mm for 3-5years? figuring saving value?

 

Baltimore, who do you get from them? TOP TEN PROSPECTS vis Baseball America

1.Dylan Bundy, rhp 2.Kevin Gausman, rhp

3.Jonathan Schoop, 2b/ss 4.Nicky Delmonico, 1b/2b

5.Eduardo Rodriguez, lhp 6.L.J. Hoes, of

7.Xavier Avery, of 8.Mike Wright, rhp

9.Branden Kline, rhp 10.Adrian Marin, ss

 

Nothing really jumps out at you. And none of them really seem ready to join a MLB team. Bundy of course shouldn't be listed as he's a for sure untradeable. Looking at their Minors stats only Rodriquez hints at maybe turning in to a legit player. The rest appear more of AAAA types. Again assuming Gausman is not on the market either. I haven't looked below top 10 but you figure you will have to ask for at least one of these players. With all that in place I don't see a deal Baltimore would put together worthy of Hart.

 

 

Gausman is their projected '17 #2 starter Likely not tradeable for Orioles

Hoes as their '17 LF who is best hitter for avg/arm rated

Schoop would be a power hitting 2b

Delmonico at 1b?

 

Edit adding: Looking over top 20prospects please give me some Rangers prospects! Wow does that Farm system sound stacked!

[Kelbysdaddy]

You don't have to trade for only prospects. The o's have some major league young pitching. Tillman would be great in a package for hart.