Brewers Have Considered Trading Hart

[endaround]

I've asked this question before, and it always goes unanswered.

 

Why does anyone think Khris Davis is an option at 1B?

 

Has he ever played there? His profile says he is 6' tall, but I have stood next to him, I'm 5'11" and he is surely no taller than me, in fact, he looks closer to 5'10" live and in person.

 

I always think it is silly for people to think we can take any player and magically turn them into a 1B...

 

Fielder might be 5'10"

[TURBO]

Yes, Fielder might have been 5'10", which was my point.

 

Hart's size over there saved countless plays this year, Prince was too short and too fat to play that position effectively.

 

I disagree that any player can be turned into a 1B. Can any player be thrown out on the field at 1B? Of course, but can any player be thrown out there and not hurt the team defensively? I don't think so. And, if we want to take a guy and make him a 1B, why would we take a guy like Davis who just isn't that big? I don't knw the average height of a MLB 1B, but it has to be around 6'2" or so, right?

 

I loved Prince, but he was horrible defensively.

 

Prince was not even close to a "decent" 1B on the field. He was below average.

 

That is my opinion of course, I have no fancy stats to back it up.

 

[torts]

I hope this thread goes to 10 pages

[JohnBriggs12]

I disagree with the notion that Hart is "easily replaceable". There were a lot of teams that didn't get near the production Hart provides at 1B.

 

As an example, lets take Houston. They traded Lance Berkman several years ago. Waiting in the wings was Brett Wallace, the 13th overall pick in the 2008 draft. Prior to 2010, Wallace was the 27th ranked prospect by Baseball America (Gamel's never been higher than 34 on that list). What's he done in the big leagues? Well he's hit about as well as Gamel has, only over a much larger sample and that's not very good. How about Justin Smoak? He was picked 2 spots ahead of Wallace in the 08 draft and ranked 13th on BA's prospect list in 2010. How's he done in Seattle?

 

Not every prospect produces at the level Hart has. In fact, most don't. He struggled with inconsistency early in his career too, and only in the past couple of years has he decided his strength is his power, not stealing bases. But given his stated desire to stay, I think the Brewers would be well suited to try and extend him.

[TheCrew07]

Why does anyone think Khris Davis is an option at 1B?

 

Actually it's been discussed many times between the various forums, but mostly on the minor league one.

 

The answer is because he's one of those not so toolsy guys that consistently outplays his natural gifts. He's not fast, not all that graceful, not a super athlete, and he has a really weak arm, but Kris finds a way to hit everywhere he goes.

 

He's just a solid and hardworking young man who's good at many things but not great at anything and has some physical limitations.

 

Kris works hard enough that picking up 1B wouldn't be problem. Many of us suggested bumping Braun to RF to get Davis' bat in the line-up in LF given his limitations. However, apparently many posters think that since Braun is an MVP he shouldn't be asked to switch to RF regardless if it makes the team better or not and I could the Brewers taking that tact as well. If LF isn't an option, then he's not an OF so the only position that suits his physical skill set is 1B.

[igor67]

Holding Hart for the remainder of his contract is not the worst strategy. Trading him may or may not yield good value give age contract size and position. I agree that getting similar production out of any one prospect is not as easy as some make it sound, but given the number of options we have someone will probably perform as well and maybe even better. Given the age and experience though that is less likely for this upcoming year, than over the long run.

[TheCrew07]

Not every prospect produces at the level Hart has. In fact, most don't. He struggled with inconsistency early in his career too, and only in the past couple of years has he decided his strength is his power, not stealing bases. But given his stated desire to stay, I think the Brewers would be well suited to try and extend him.

 

Again, it's not just as simple as the player vs player production in a single season, there are other risks and factors to take into consideration.

 

For me it comes down to this, is the difference in production between Hart and any performing prospect worth the extra $9.5 per season for 1 more year? Is it worth the extra $30 million over the course of a 3 year deal? I would submit to you that the answer is no.

 

I'll use baseball reference because I'm at work and want to make this quick.

 

Hart's 2012 WAR = 1.8, basically a league average 1B. I think that's low, my gut is that he's worth closer to fangraphs' 2.9

 

Wolf 2012 WAR = -1.2

 

Net 2012 = .6 or 1.4 wins below average. Using Hart's fangraphs number 1.7.

 

Either way you slice it the 2 players combined were below league average, so if you're really looking to improve the team and Hart can land you a young, talented, cheap, but inexperienced pitcher who can at least pitch to league average as a rookie then you are already 3.2 wins better... -1.2 to 2.0.

 

Lets say the drop off from Hart to Gamel or Morris would be 1 win, from 2.9 (using his best WAR) down to 1.9 for the replacement.

 

Pitcher + Replacement 1B Net WAR = 3.9

Wolf + Hart Net WAR = 1.7

 

Difference = 2.2 wins with replacement players.

 

And that's just the first year, as the replacements approach their prime their numbers will improve while Hart's numbers will continue to slide, he get's more expensive, and becomes more likely to miss playing time due to injury.

 

In the above scenario not only are you getting more production on the field, you've cut costs and freed up revenue for any number of uses, including plugging holes elsewhere. True flexibility is not payroll flexibility, it's flexibility of talent... having enough different options available to make the best possible use of the assets on hand. Honestly it doesn't matter if the replacement 1B is ever as good Hart if the pitcher is that good and becomes a solid #2, the team would be still better off without Hart. Not only on the field but in the pocket book as well... 1 win at 1 position is never worth $9 mil, that's just throwing money away, you're paying almost double the AVE cost of a win in years past. This is the exact same argument I was making prior to Hardy's last full season when Escobar was ready for MLB, it was never Hardy vs Escobar, the idea was Hardy + a crappy pitcher (Looper, Suppan, Bush) vs Escobar + a young MLB guy like Buccholz or Niemann. Which group was going to give you more total WAR and more flexbility in the future?

 

Melvin is basically playing checkers, he's repeatedly said that he can't see trading one guy to fill a hole elsewhere because all you've done is create another hole by trading the player. That's an extremely linear view of roster management, and it's also why he's just been continually patching the roster each year since 2006. I want him to play chess and make roster moves in combination setting up for the future, have a long-term vision, a long-term plan to acquire as much talent as possible for the organization through as many different avenues as possible.

 

If there's a tremendous buy at a position of need in FA, take it. You have an aging/expensive/short contract duration player then flip him. Look for solutions that the team can control for greater than 2 years and buy as many wins as possible as far below market value as possible. Roster management shouldn't be about rental players, deadline deals, or marquee FA signings, it should be about having enough talent stockpiled to sustain your organization. If you can't compete $ for $ with the large markets then you have to be smarter and more efficient than they are and unfortunately we haven't been. There's nothing sexy about the way Friedman manages talent in TB, he's rarely making headlines or being talked about by ESPN, but look at the impact talent they've developed and cycled back through the organization.

 

If you want to beat the big boys you simply can't play the roster management game they way they do, because in the end they will always outspend you. If they want to make a "win now" trade then happily take 3-4 of their best assets in the minors and walk away knowing the odds are that at least 1 will pan out and that's all it really takes to sustain your franchise. If you're drafting and developing well then maybe you'll have surplus talent that you can flip for a greater position of need elsewhere.

 

It's not about player vs player production, it's about aggregates... cost per win... it's about maximizing value at every opportunity. The truth is that keeping Hart around actually minimizes value because not only is he expensive, but so is a FA starting pitcher, and neither might be healthy enough to perform to their potential even though they are "proven". Truthfully there's no way to know if the 2 veterans would even outproduce the youngsters next season, let alone 2 or 3 years from now.

 

To me this "veteran" issue is more about comfort than anything else, but we cant afford to have coaches, managers, or GMs that aren't comfortable teaching and developing young players because young players are the only way the Brewers can remain relevant over the long-term.

[reillymcshane]

The Brewers are very unlikely to deal Hart. Melvin does not take big risks - especially if he sees the team as capable of making the playoffs. He has an offense that ranked #1 in the league last year, and it is coming back intact (assuming Segura is the SS). He's going to count on an above average offense and average pitching to win.

 

Corey ranked 9th in MLB 1st basemen in WAR (fangraphs). He was 5th in HRs. He has a good chance to improve defensively with a year of experience. He's an above average 1st baseman right now. Melvin simply won't take the chance of dealing that production away based upon Gamel's potential.

 

I actually like Gamel - and think he could do fine. But Melvin isn't going to take the risk.

 

That's my thought.

[paul253]

If you can get Trevor Brauer for Sin Soo Choo I'd be really curious as to what we could get for Hart. I'd offer him to Seattle for one of their 3 stud pitching prospects. Their offense if really, really hurting.

[Kelbysdaddy]

hart and mark rogers for danny hultzen, carter capps, and brad miller! get it done!!! jack certainly seems smarter then towers though.

[reillymcshane]

hart and mark rogers for danny hultzen, carter capps, and brad miller! get it done!!! jack certainly seems smarter then towers though.

This would be awesome, but I doubt Seattle would be interested in this. Not just for one year of Hart. Hultzen's walk rate has been kind of scary, but he's got mucho ability.

[Kelbysdaddy]

It's not just one year of hart though. Until the first game of next season you have to factor in the comp pick.

[narwhalattack]

It's not just one year of hart though. Until the first game of next season you have to factor in the comp pick.

 

But still, the Mariners would be giving up a top-notch pitching prospect for a 1-year rental, oft-injured possible bullpen arm, and something like the 43rd pick in the next draft, which doesn't seem to be a fair trade either.

[Kelbysdaddy]

the indians just got trevor bauer for one year of shin soo choo.........the market doesnt seem fair. only the first 10 picks are protected, chances are better that its a 11-32 pick.

 

also- i'm not suggesting that its a realistic trade. i really need to remember that you guys cant see me or hear my voice when i type things. it doesnt seem that crazy that a trade could be made with the main pieces being hart and hultzen though.

[brosto1]

The Choo trade certainly only helps Hart's value as a consistent 3-4 WAR player. I have always liked Hart, but I think he has more value as a trade chip now than signing him to an extension for the next 3+years. However, I think no matter what Melvin chooses to do with Hart that all of the scenarios make some sense.

[nate82]

only the first 10 picks are protected, chances are better that its a 11-32 pick.

No if a team trades for Hart now and then offers a QO all the team gets if that player signs with another team is a comp pick. Which means it will be after the first round. A team in the 11-31 pick range will lose their pick and it goes to no one it just goes away.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Wow, I guess I read the wrong article. I just read the compensation rules again. I cant believe the idiots that came up with this system.

[Madtown343]

Great discussion...

 

With the current trade market and the fact that Gamel was acceptable at 1B last year on a team with playoff aspirations I think this is a no brainier....

 

Dangle Hart and get as much as possible, if gamel/Morris/halton can't hold down 1B and that's our biggest issue we are probably in rebuilding mode til the young pitchers get seasoning anyways...

[paul253]

It's not just one year of hart though. Until the first game of next season you have to factor in the comp pick.

Isn't this what we thought with Shaun Marcum though? Now he is walking for nothing. If Hart has an injury plagued year or even a down year it's not a given that we will be willing to offer him a one year deal worth $14 million or whatever it will be.

 

The Choo deals helps Milwaukee. If someone asks about Hart Melvin can say "look Cleveland got Trevor Bauer for Sin Soo Choo so you'd better be willing to pay up". Is there anyone here who wouldn't have traded Hart for Bauer? That is the kind of deal to look for and as has been stated before, it only takes one GM willing to make the deal.

[monty57]

It's not just one year of hart though. Until the first game of next season you have to factor in the comp pick.

Isn't this what we thought with Shaun Marcum though? Now he is walking for nothing. If Hart has an injury plagued year or even a down year it's not a given that we will be willing to offer him a one year deal worth $14 million or whatever it will be.

 

The Choo deals helps Milwaukee. If someone asks about Hart Melvin can say "look Cleveland got Trevor Bauer for Sin Soo Choo so you'd better be willing to pay up". Is there anyone here who wouldn't have traded Hart for Bauer? That is the kind of deal to look for and as has been stated before, it only takes one GM willing to make the deal.

 

I think he was saying that to state that Hart's trade value would be improved because the team who trades for Hart could also get the comp pick if the trade is done this offseason.

 

I do agree that the Choo deal helps the Brewers if they are looking to trade Hart. I'd be really happy with a Top 10 prospect in return for Hart, so I would hope that Melvin uses the Choo deal as leverage and lands someone who can be a core player for Milwaukee for a long time.

[narwhalattack]

It's not just one year of hart though. Until the first game of next season you have to factor in the comp pick.

Isn't this what we thought with Shaun Marcum though? Now he is walking for nothing. If Hart has an injury plagued year or even a down year it's not a given that we will be willing to offer him a one year deal worth $14 million or whatever it will be.

 

The Choo deals helps Milwaukee. If someone asks about Hart Melvin can say "look Cleveland got Trevor Bauer for Sin Soo Choo so you'd better be willing to pay up". Is there anyone here who wouldn't have traded Hart for Bauer? That is the kind of deal to look for and as has been stated before, it only takes one GM willing to make the deal.

 

I think he was saying that to state that Hart's trade value would be improved because the team who trades for Hart could also get the comp pick if the trade is done this offseason.

 

I do agree that the Choo deal helps the Brewers if they are looking to trade Hart. I'd be really happy with a Top 10 prospect in return for Hart, so I would hope that Melvin uses the Choo deal as leverage and lands someone who can be a core player for Milwaukee for a long time.

 

I think one match for Hart would be the Mariners because their lineup has been pretty atrocious. They could use a power hitter like Hart. If the Brewers were to trade Hart to the Mariners, perhaps they could ask for James Paxton?

[Kelbysdaddy]

When we traded for marcum the new rules weren't even written up. So that's irrelevant. At the end of harts contract he WILL not walk from anyone for nothing because he WILL be offered a qualifying offer because he WILL be the best 1b on the free agent market. And yes, I would have traded hart for Bauer.

[Kelbysdaddy]

what about hart to texas? they need to upgrade at of and 1b badly after hamilton and napoli signed elsewhere.

[Invader3K]

It makes a ton of sense to explore trading Hart at this point with how this off-season has gone, but I fear Melvin won't even kick any tires.

 

I love Corey Hart as a Brewer and yeah, it would be nice to see him extended...but this off-season is showing that teams like the Brewers can't afford to give out extensions to aging players anymore. The team has to get younger and cheaper, and dealing Hart now could go a long ways toward accomplishing that.

[sheetskout]

what about hart to texas? they need to upgrade at of and 1b badly after hamilton and napoli signed elsewhere.

 

 

You may be able to pry Buckel and Odor away for Corey Hart. Personally I would take this. I don't see them offering up Martin Perez since he's very close (especially since they've lost out on a ton of pitching this offseason). I also don't see them offering up Mike Olt at this point.