Brewers Have Considered Trading Hart

[TooLiveBrew]

For the record, I know you don't have doubts when it comes to Gamel's bat. I do, though, and that's perfectly ok, so we will just call it truce on that. It makes me wonder though that if the Brewers management really believed in Gamel's bat, then why aren't the Brewers giving him the RF position to start the 2013 season?

 

I don't think Gamel will get another chance to be a starter again for the Brewers, unless there is an injury to one of the starters. Right now Aoki (1.5 million salary) has the RF position and Hart has 1B, and I could see Gamel on the Brewers bench. The Brewers (Roenicke) really likes Aoki and his style of play/plate discipline/leadoff ability. Gamel has once again lost his position as a starter. The kid has had his chances, and bad luck.

 

I agree about Morris.

PM sent... back to Corey Hart!

[TURBO]

In short, yes. Gamel will get on base at a better clip, offer very similar (if not better) defense, and would probably be a 20-30 HR guy over the course of a full season.

 

Wow, that is some wild speculation, almost written as fact.

 

I do not have the confidence in Gamel that you and others do. We just haven't seen enough of him to have any idea of what he has to offer, especially what you have just written.

 

I tend to view him as a guy who could help us, but probably won't.

 

In my opinion, I just can't see him producing anything close to Corey Hart numbers, especially in his first major league full season.

[DHonks]

to my point, I really like Gamel as a player. I just think it's foolish to trade an established all-star for a player that is more likely to be Brad Nelson 2.0 than he is Mat Gamel 2.0

[NievesNoNO]

I wonder if Seattle would give up Walker Paxton or Hultzen for Hart. Obviously it would require Hart being willing to sign a long term deal with them.

 

I don't see Seattle making a move like that, their AA pitching staff to start the year was phenomenal from a talent standpoint and hitting tends to carries much more value dollar wise in FA. They would be better off holding onto their pitching and working to plug positional holes in FA.

 

By the end of 2013 Seattle could have Felix, Hultzen, and Paxton in the mlb rotation. If Taijuan Walker progresses he could also be there but more likely 2014, I think he'd be up no later than 2015. That's a ton of fire power, 3 young pitchers who profile as 1/2s best case and 2 of them are left handed. Seattle had more impact LH pitching on their AA team last year than we had in our entire organization, if I were Jack Z I wouldn't move any of those guys. Paxton tops out at 98, Hultzen at 94, and Walker 97 with "electric life" as a 19 year old.

 

Yeah, I don't think they'd move Paxton either but you never know. It's a nice thought to keep those 3 together but that's a team that's under some pressure to inject any sort of offense into that lineup. Unless they manage to sign Hamilton or put together a couple trades they'll be in a similar situation as last season. Seattle does have some nice arms (supposedly) beyond their big 3. Pryor and Capps are guys mentioned to have big arms and pretty much MLB bullpen ready right now. Include them both and/or a guy like Furbush and that could be a way to re-make the bullpen without spending any $$.

[SRB]

If they're going to trade Hart, Atlanta might be a good match. Unless past rumors were made up, they've had some level of interest in him previously, and they have more bullpen depth than any other team in the majors. Maybe Hart for Venters or Walden, and a decent low-minors SP prospect? O'Flaherty would be a very good bullpen addition too, except he only has one year of team control left so they would need to add more prospects.

 

I don't know if I'm undervaluing one year of Hart in those scenarios. It would have to be a legit prospect in addition the the MLB reliever (though Teheran is probably too much)

[paul253]

paul, why do want to deal an above average 1st basemen with tremendous power and an under-market contact IN HIS PRIME to make room for a prospect that could be the next Mat Gamel, Kevin Barker, Joey Meyer, Alex Escobar, Corey Patterson, Brandon Wood, Sean Burroughs, Russell Branyan, etc? Morris could be a good 1st baseman, maybe even a star. But it would be foolish to move Hart for Morris until he's at least performed in AAA.

 

If Corey Hart is in his prime he's at the very tail end of it. He can't move back to the outfield because his fielding took a huge dump the past two years out there. He is on the wrong side of 30 and I don't think spending $30-$40 million more on him is the best way to go with Milwaukee's limited resources and huge raises coming to Ramirez and Braun soon. And for the record, I'm not saying trade him because we have Morris. I'm saying trade him because we have Gamel. And if Gamel doesn't cut it there is Morris. I've also always thought Khris Davis would be a candidate. And then there is what we'd get for Hart (probably a #2 or #3 type pitcher). Yes Morris and Davis could flame out but couldn't you say that about every prospect?

 

I just think it's foolish to trade an established all-star for a player that is more likely to be Brad Nelson 2.0 than he is Mat Gamel 2.0

That's not fair. Brad Nelson never really recovered from the broken wrist and his prospect status was almost nothing when he made it to the big leagues.

 

Over the years, the Brewers have had many 1B prospects... but throughout the history of the franchise, only two have panned out

 

The Brewers had like an entire decade with one TOTAL prospect turning out (Jenkins) and have obtained some pretty good 1B in trades (Sexson, Overbay) so they didn't really need to focus on the position in the minors. Beside, what has happened in the past has no bearing on what will happen to Morris. He is far from a sure thing but we shouldn't just write him off because he's just a prospect.

[DHonks]

That's not fair. Brad Nelson never really recovered from the broken wrist and his prospect status was almost nothing when he made it to the big leagues.

 

it's totally fair. Gamel has had multiple serious injuries. Morris could very well have injuries. The odds of these guys ever producing like Corey Hart are really low. I still hope Gamel is given a shot in RF, but I've sort of learned that many prospects never amount to much. I used to always be high on prospects and turning over the roster, but now I realize that that was foolish. Hart wants to stay, is willing to take a below market deal, and is very good at 1st base. It's quite likely that a 3-year extension would be beneficial for both

[paul253]

I used to always be high on prospects and turning over the roster, but now I realize that that was foolish. Hart wants to stay, is willing to take a below market deal, and is very good at 1st base. It's quite likely that a 3-year extension would be beneficial for both

And yet we are supposed to rely on all these young rookie pitchers, some of whom have serious injury histories themselves?

 

And let's face it. A below market deal is still $10-$13 million a year for probably three years. That's about $28-$37 million less the Brewers would have to spend elsewhere.

 

Nobody is saying Corey Hart isn't a good player or that Mat Gamel, Hunter Morris or anyone else will immediately put up those numbers. But as has been stated time and time again, Milwaukee is not a franchise that can afford to offer multiyear, multimillion deals to all of its players. Ramirez, Weeks, Braun, and Gallardo aren't going anywhere anytime soon and all are commanding fairly decent sized contracts. The only reason Hart's name is being thrown out is because only year left on his contract. Milwaukee is already looking like they are holding back because of financial limitations. What would happen next offseason when Braun, Ramirez and Weeks are making a combined $37 million dollars and you give Hart, say, $12 million a year? That's literally half on payroll on 4 guys. Then add in Gallardo's $11 million and that's $60 million tied up in 5 guys. That's not something the Brewers can do.

[jerichoholicninja]

Hart is pretty easily replaceable at first base. Above average hitting first basemen literally grow on trees.

[paul253]

Hart is pretty easily replaceable at first base. Above average hitting first basemen literally grow on trees.

 

Yeah we should just resign him to a multimillion dollar deal. And we can't lose Gomez either because his defense is amazing and he looks like he may have turned a corner last season. Lets sign him to a multiyear multimillion deal too. And Aoki? Good defense and did an awesome job in the leadoff spot. He deserves a long term deal as well. Axford will probably rebound from that terrible year last year. We'd better lock him into a long term deal as well. Segura has some time but eventually we'll need to lock him into a long term deal. Then once Ramirez and Weeks' contracts run out we'll resign them because both are well above average offensively.

 

We have Schafer and Morris and Davis and Gennett but these guys are all just prospects and prospects usually don't turn out anyway. We should trade them all while they still have value. Resources are unlimited anyway aren't they? I mean, we are pursuing all the big time free agents this offseason and will be able to afford to do so next offseason as well I'm sure.

 

Sorry but I had to get that out of my system:

2014 salaries:

Ramirez $16 million

Braun $10 million

Weeks $11 million

Gallardo $11.25 million

Lucroy $2 million

 

Add in say $12 million for Hart and you have $62 million invested in 6 guys. Let's assume that the 2014 is somewhere around $100 million payroll and it leaves about about $38 million for the remaining 19 guys on your 25 man roster. Doable I guess but it sure doesn't leave you a lot of room for error. And you'd better hope you stay healthy (at least 3 of your regular 8 position players will be in the early 30's).

 

I just don't feel as though the people who make comments like the one above understand the other side's position. With all else being equal yeah we'd love Hart to be around until his production drops off. But thats not how it works. The Brewers resources are limited. They just are. And with the economics of baseball unless Mark Cuban buys the Brewers their resources always will be limited. This offseason is the perfect example (so far at least) of how our lack of funds is hindering what we do. We haven't even been able to sign a left handed reliever yet because the better ones are too expensive. Corey Hart has had a good run in Milwaukee. No doubt. But he is in his 30's. He's expensive. We have a 1B who just won the MVP award in AA and another who was your starter until he tore his ACL last season (and did nothing to lose the job before that). Hunter Morris or Mat Gamel may not hit you 30 homeruns. But they might be very productive players at a 1/10th of the cost. And that savings could allow you to upgrade elsewhere.

[brewtank34]

Paul253 has it nailed here. Nothing else needs to be said on this debate. I hope Melvin is reading this one!

[Outlander]

Yeah right, Gamel is horrible so there is plenty to debate.

[paul253]

Yeah right, Gamel is horrible so there is plenty to debate.

 

The guy tore his ACL running into the wall trying to catch a foul ball. He was holding his own just fine before then. I think "horrible" is a bit harsh.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Yeah right, Gamel is horrible so there is plenty to debate.

 

The real question is since Paul believes Gamel clearly won't come that close to Hart's production, and it's obvious that Gamel has yet to even come close to playing a full season in the Majors (coming off serious injury), and the Brewers are trying to win now, and Aoki and Hart are locks for RF/1B over Gamel in 2013, and the Brewers have stated publicly that they want Gamel to be more versatile, which should speak volumes of what the Brewers Management thinks of Gamel at this point, why would they be planning or thinking about trading Corey Hart to make room for Gamel? How does Gamel fit into this debate? All signs say he doesn't. I'd pay the extra 2-4 million per year for 3 years to keep the better player where you pretty much know what you are going to get from him; especially when you are trying to win now.

 

I also wanted to say that I know Paul has stated in a reply that Gamel doesn't need to produce Hart type numbers to make the move worth it, because other Brewers position players had down years last year, and they could make up for it "if" they can have better years. He's also said that we shouldn't count on many of our young starting pitching prospect to make it in the majors even though they have shown success in the Majors already and not all of them have to pan out. Both of these require things to go right and are still in the "if" category, so what's the difference? I don't think there is a difference. I'll take my chances with one of the top 3 offenses in the NL, and count on the Brewers young pitching at least for the next 3 years.

[paul253]

why would they be planning or thinking about trading Corey Hart to make room for Gamel?

 

This again is where the entire trade Hart reasoning is lost. Nobody has EVER suggested trading Hart to make room for Gamel. We say trade Hart because 1) He's expensive 2) He's only got a year left on his contract 3) His "prime" is coming to an end 4) He has pretty decent trade value and you could probably get an arm with #2 or #3 potential (which is the biggest reason) and 5) we have guys who can replace him at the position

 

and it's obvious that Gamel has yet to even come close to playing a full season in the Majors

 

This is because he never had the chance to play a full season in the majors. He never really had much of an injury history in the minors. And for god's sake he tore his ACL on a hustle play. That doesn't exactly scream injury plagued to me. It's not like, say, Mark Rogers' shoulder.

 

I'd pay the extra 2-4 million per year for 3 years

 

You think Hart is only going to cost an extra 2-4 million a year? How much do you think Mat Gamel makes? $8 million?

 

Now onto all the references to me as Prince that's not even close to what I said:

 

Paul believes Gamel clearly won't come that close to Hart's production

 

Untrue. I said he probably won't match Hart's overall production but nowhere did I say "not that close" or "clearly". Hart has never been on OBP guy and Gamel seems to be able to take walks so Gamel's OBP may top Hart's. Hart also doesn't hit much for average and I think Gamel could match him there too. I don't think Gamel will ever hit 30 home runs though and overall he probably won't be as good as an offensive player but that doesn't mean I think he'll be horrible and won't come close to Hart.

Paul has stated in a reply that Gamel doesn't need to produce Hart type numbers to make the move worth it,

I said that I don't think the Brewers offense will take that big of a hit without Hart because others had bad years and if they improve the productivity drop from Hart to Gamel could more than be made up. Whether or not the move is "worth it" is based entirely on who they get in return.

 

He's also said that we shouldn't count on many of our young starting pitching prospect to make it in the majors even though they have shown success in the Majors already and not all of them have to pan out.

 

Again not even close to what I said. This was in reference to Hunter Morris and the "he's just a prospect" attitude. I asked why it was that we are allowed to count on all these young pitchers but can't count on positional prospects. The success they've all had is very limited. Fiers started off amazing but really came back down to earth later on in the year. Rogers and Peralta had 12 combined starts last year. Not exactly a long track record to go off of (especially Rogers who's limited ML stats are much, much better than his minor league stats). I'm as high on them as the next guy but they are far from certain. The young pitching is much more important to how the 2013 season goes than Corey Hart in my opinion. As we have seen plenty of times in the past few seasons you can have all the offense in the world but without the pitching it means nothing.

 

I'll take my chances with one of the top 3 offenses in the NL, and count on the Brewers young pitching at least for the next 3 years.

 

So the "if" of Rogers remaining healthy and Rogers, Fiers, and Peralta repeating their late season success over the course of an entire year is a risk you're willing to take but you won't take the risk that Weeks won't have such a bad year or that Gamel will come back healthy from his torn ACL?

 

But more to the point. The Brewers have had a top 5 offense in terms of runs each of the last 4 years and 5 out of the last 6 years. They made the playoffs twice. What was the difference in those two years? How about the team ERA?

 

2012: Runs rank (1) ERA rank (13)

*2011: Runs (5) ERA (7)

2010: Runs (4) ERA (14)

2009: Runs (3) ERA (15)

*2008: Runs (7) ERA (2)

2007: Runs (5) ERA (9)

 

*playoff years

 

It seems fairly clear to me that success comes more from pitching than from the offense. The 2 years they made the playoffs were the only two years their team ERA was in the top half of the league. As I said, I don't see that big a drop in offensive ranking with Hart being replaced by Gamel, Morris, or whoever else we have. But I do think it's still way too early to call a rotation of Gallardo/Fiers/Estrada/Peralta/Rogers a top 8 rotation. Getting another high upside arm and spending the money elsewhere, I think, will do more for the Brewers long term success than resigning Corey Hart.

[Roderick]

I said that I don't think the Brewers offense will take that big of a hit without Hart because others had bad years and if they improve the productivity drop from Hart to Gamel could more than be made up. Whether or not the move is "worth it" is based entirely on who they get in return.

 

To me ARam, Aoki and the catcher's position outperformed what we will see next year. And I don't see any upside left for Hart, Braun, Gomez - not assuming they dropoff but won't produce more than last year and if injured there will be a dropoff. Weeks and Segura will probably be a little better, but how many more runs will that add? So I don't see all the bad years you were referencing and if roster stays static, I would project an overall dropoff of offense next year.

[paul253]

So I don't see all the bad years you were referencing and if roster stays static, I would project an overall dropoff of offense next year.

 

I don't think we will see a drop off from catcher. Remember Lucroy was even hurt for awhile last season. I also don't think we'll see a drop off in RF with Aoki. But even if we do we go from 1st in runs to what.......4th? 5th? Still good enough if the pitching holds up. All the bad years I was referencing had everything to do with pitching. It shows that no matter how good your offense is, if you have terrible pitching your team isn't going anywhere. That's why I don't think it'd be a terrible idea to trade Corey Hart for a young pitcher. Even with a slight dropoff in runs scored a good rotation and a good bullpen can get you into the playoffs.

[TheCrew07]

The bottom line from where I'm sitting is Pitching > Hitting as such good pitching more closely correlates with success than does hitting. I think even the most basic statistical research will bear that out.

 

There is no such thing as "good enough" pitching when it comes to winning a championship.

[gregmag]

I've said this before, so I won't belabor it, but Hart is a relatively easy type of player to replace. He isn't an OBP guy, and at this point he has little speed or defensive value. What you get with him is power, and that makes him valuable. But that's really all you're replacing: 30 HR. You can replace him with a guy who adds offensive value the same way or different ways, and the only position the guy has to be able to play is the easiest one on the diamond.

 

Then you look at the Brewers' internal options. It isn't like we have only Gamel, or only Morris, or only Khris Davis. We have all of those guys. If one of them fails, you cycle in another one. The odds are that none of them will be as good next year as Hart was last year. But I'd say the odds are very good that one of them will be at least as good as Hart over the next, say, three or four years. If it all goes completely south, then it isn't like 1b's at Hart's projected level of production in his early 30s are rare beasts, so you go find one.

 

It just seems to me that re-signing Corey Hart for 3/36 or something is an incredibly bad use of available resources. If you can use him to fill another hole via trade, with the cheap internal 1b options the Brewers have, you have to do it.

[sheetskout]

If one of them fails, you cycle in another one.

 

Although I agree with you that Hart is semi-easily-replaceable (among established MLB regulars) I think you're discounting what actually goes into making a player a full-time-regular. It isn't merely as simple as cycling another one into the position. First, there are certain intangibles of getting a young player up-to-speed to play everyday in MLB. Most players don't come up to MLB and start playing close to their talent-peak. Hell, it took Rickie two years to get comfortable in Major League Baseball. There are also 40-man roster concerns, other concerns regarding service time, and that's if the young-player doesn't get affected by the daily rigors of baseball life.

 

If you're solution is to start jockeying people into the position on a more rapid-fire basis until one fills the need then I'm not so sure I'm down with that. There is a reason that Major League veterans get paid what they do today (although the exorbitant salaries oddly disguise this), because through experience they have dealt with rookie-level issues and know how to live like a Major League baseball player.

 

It isn't as simple as holding a tryout for the new first baseman.

[TheCrew07]

If one of them fails, you cycle in another one.

I think you're discounting what actually goes into making a player a full-time-regular. It isn't merely as simple as cycling another one into the position.

 

I don't think he is at all, what he's saying is if a player complete tanks so bad he's hurting the team, we have options, in fact we have 4 legitimate options for 1B and 3 of them require a league minimum salary.

 

First, there are certain intangibles of getting a young player up-to-speed to play everyday in MLB. Most players don't come up to MLB and start playing close to their talent-peak.

 

Of course every player will have a unique learning curve but that's not the point, it's not as if a player has to be producing at his peak level to be productive and contribute in a meaningful way.

 

There are also 40-man roster concerns, other concerns regarding service time, and that's if the young-player doesn't get affected by the daily rigors of baseball life.

 

I'm sorry, I don't understand how any of that is any different with Hart? With Hart we will actually have 4 MLB ready (or very near ready) 1B baseball between AAA and MLB. Halton, Morris, and Gamel don't have much trade value so it would make sense to flip the more valuable piece and get something valuable back in return. How does it make to sense to have to have so many 40 man roster positions used on 1 corner infield spot?

 

If you're solution is to start jockeying people into the position on a more rapid-fire basis until one fills the need then I'm not so sure I'm down with that. There is a reason that Major League veterans get paid what they do today (although the exorbitant salaries oddly disguise this), because through experience they have dealt with rookie-level issues and know how to live like a Major League baseball player.

 

Again that's not the idea, if a player totally flops we have additional options, we aren't totally reliant on 1 prospect to make or break a position. Take Gamel for example... if he hit .270 with a .350-360 OBP and SLG for around .470-.480 I'd take that. If he only hit .230, carried a sub .300 OBP through say mid August and wasn't hitting for any power then I'd be willing to look at the next guy. The prospect doesn't have to perform at a peak level, just demonstrate some aptitude for the game. I'm all for letting players grow into their roles but if a player is terrible through 2/3 of a season or more what do you lose by giving the next guy a shot? Especially if they all project similarily?

 

It isn't as simple as holding a tryout for the new first baseman.

Actually, it is exactly that simple, just take the players in the order they come. I talked about this on the Major League forum and in literally hundreds of posts in the past but look at what Tampa has done with their pitching. Sonnanstine (BP) and Jackson out, Niemann and Price in. Kazmir out, Davis in. Davis to the BP, Hellickson in. Garza out, Moore in. Shields out, Cobb in... not to mention picking up Montgomery and Odorizzi. Tampa won't have a starting pitcher over 27 years old in the rotation to start next year if Niemann isn't ready for the opener, and he might not be in the rotation regardless. He'll be 30 next season and is right at the point TB has jettisoned pitchers in the past.

 

There are many very logical reasons to trade Hart and/or continually cycle talent which have been covered in an avalanche of posts from various people, but I've yet to see a legitimate counter argument that takes all of the variables from the equation into consideration. The argument to keep/resign players like Hart largely hinges solely on "next year's production" while ignoring all of the other risk factors that should also be taken into consideration.

[Eye Black]

The bottom line from where I'm sitting is Pitching > Hitting as such good pitching more closely correlates with success than does hitting.

Heard a Joe Maddon interview from the Winter Meetings in which he said he would prefer to go into a game with a disadvantage on offense every time over being overmatched in the pitching department. He also said he thinks the game should be named "Pitching" instead of Baseball.

 

I think even the most basic statistical research will bear that out.

In my very basic (and probably highly flawed) "research", I found this interesting...

 

*8 teams allowed less than 650 runs in 2012 (Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Washington, LA Dodgers, Atlanta, Oakland, St. Louis, San Francisco). Those teams had a combined winning percentage of 0.572 and 6 of them made the playoffs.

 

*6 teams scored more than 750 runs in 2012 (Texas, NY Yankees, Milwaukee, LA Angels, St. Louis, Colorado). Those teams had a combined winning percentage of 0.527 and 3 of them made the playoffs.

 

I realize Colorado skews the sample and there are park factors at play, but still interesting that only half of the 6 teams scoring the most runs in MLB even made the playoffs.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'll simplify it even further.

 

If the Brewers are not willing to trade Hart to make room for Gamel at 1B, then the Brewers will never trade him unless it's for a cheaper 1B replacement, or the Brewers will just extend Hart, or let him walk to FA at the end of the year, and perhaps give the job to Gamel in 2014. Gamel is next in line and the only one who is ready enough to step in, and it will be like this through all of next season. If it's not Gamel, then it's no one. I said this earlier and I'll say it again, it sounds like Brewers management (according to public quotes) want Gamel to be more versatile meaning their plan for him is a bench player.

 

The other 1B prospects are simply not on Gamel's level. If Gamel gets injured in Spring Training again or comes in out of shape like I believe he has done in the past, then I fully expect the Brewers to just extend Hart and give him the money. Also if the Brewers just don't favor Gamel anymore, which it sounds like they don't, because they chose Aoki over him in RF, then they will extend Hart sooner, which means this off-season.

 

This organization doesn't seem willing to trade Hart and is looking like they want to keep him. I guess we will see what happens.

[TURBO]

I've asked this question before, and it always goes unanswered.

 

Why does anyone think Khris Davis is an option at 1B?

 

Has he ever played there? His profile says he is 6' tall, but I have stood next to him, I'm 5'11" and he is surely no taller than me, in fact, he looks closer to 5'10" live and in person.

 

I always think it is silly for people to think we can take any player and magically turn them into a 1B...

[SRB]

I always think it is silly for people to think we can take any player and magically turn them into a 1B...

I'm pretty sure any player can be turned into a 1B. Obviously there is a skill to being a plus defender there, but it doesn't seem to be very hard to be passable at least -- unless you are otherwise abnormally slow or injured. Prince is 5'11" and obese and he was a decent 1B.

 

That's why you have to be such a good hitter to start at the position (arguably, one of the problems with Gamel...)