Brewers Have Considered Trading Hart

[brewmann04]

I agree i like our look on the Offense and think they need to keep Hart and Bulid around our Young arms.

The Brewers have bulit up the youngsters and it time to ride them. I still think DM will find a cheap starter and reliever right before ST.

[paul253]

If I was Doug Melvin I would give it to him and not hesitate one bit. Keep the Brewers awesome offense in tact and have the quality SP prospects develop and we will go very far as a MLB franchise.

I would. By the end of that deal he'd be in his mid 30's and pretty much limited to first base. That leaves no spot for Hunter Morris, possibly your top positional prospect. So they may as well trade him but probably won't get much. Also, extending Hart for 3 years will probably cost at least $30 million. The Brewers are already stretched thin and guys like Braun and Ramirez are due huge raises over the next two years. Plus, as much as I like Rogers, Peralta, Thornburg and Fiers they are unproven. Counting on them may not be the wisest idea quite yet.

 

You could probably get another decent arm in exchange for Hart. The Brewers have proven over the past 4 years that all offense no pitching won't cut it. If the pitchers don't turn out the team will go nowhere. If you can get another #2 type pitcher, maybe even a #3 for Hart you take it. Hart has had a good run in Milwaukee. But recycling talent is the only way teams like Milwaukee can compete year in year out.

[Invader3K]

The more I think about it, I think you have to deal Hart now (assuming you can get a fairly decent return). If the team is as strapped for cash like they claim to be (and signs this winter seem to indicate that is the case), re-signing Hart doesn't make sense. The Brewers have to get into the "younger and cheaper" mode. Dealing Hart for salary relief at least gives them flexibility to make a trade mid-season too if the team is contending.

[Roderick]

If I was Doug Melvin I would give it to him and not hesitate one bit. Keep the Brewers awesome offense in tact and have the quality SP prospects develop and we will go very far as a MLB franchise.

I would. By the end of that deal he'd be in his mid 30's and pretty much limited to first base. That leaves no spot for Hunter Morris, possibly your top positional prospect. So they may as well trade him but probably won't get much. Also, extending Hart for 3 years will probably cost at least $30 million.

 

I'm for trading Hart assuming a good enough return. The return would have to be substantially more than the sandwich pick that we would get for Hart when he moves on in 2014.

 

It would be nice to have one more season with Hart, to verify that Morris is really on track and chances are that one of Gamel/Green will get enough at bats next season to see if they could man the position full-time. So I wouldn't trade him without a good return.

[paul253]

I wonder if Seattle would give up Walker Paxton or Hultzen for Hart. Obviously it would require Hart being willing to sign a long term deal with them. But Seattle has been hurting for offense for a long time and are even considering Hamilton. Their young guys (Smoak, Montero, Ackely) haven't quite cut it. But with that pitching if they get Hamilton and Hart in the middle of the lineup they could have a pretty decent team.

[JohnBriggs12]

If I was Doug Melvin I would give it to him and not hesitate one bit. Keep the Brewers awesome offense in tact and have the quality SP prospects develop and we will go very far as a MLB franchise.

I would. By the end of that deal he'd be in his mid 30's and pretty much limited to first base. That leaves no spot for Hunter Morris, possibly your top positional prospect. So they may as well trade him but probably won't get much. Also, extending Hart for 3 years will probably cost at least $30 million. The Brewers are already stretched thin and guys like Braun and Ramirez are due huge raises over the next two years. Plus, as much as I like Rogers, Peralta, Thornburg and Fiers they are unproven. Counting on them may not be the wisest idea quite yet.

 

You could probably get another decent arm in exchange for Hart. The Brewers have proven over the past 4 years that all offense no pitching won't cut it. If the pitchers don't turn out the team will go nowhere. If you can get another #2 type pitcher, maybe even a #3 for Hart you take it. Hart has had a good run in Milwaukee. But recycling talent is the only way teams like Milwaukee can compete year in year out.

 

They don't need all of Rogers, Thornburg, Fiers and Peralta performing well to be successful. Three of those four have options left. Gallardo, Estrada, and probably Narveson figure to be 3/5ths of the rotation. Fiers based on number of starts he had last year and Rogers based on lack of options figure to start in the other two spots. But if any of those guys falter, they will not hesitate to bring up Peralta, Thornburg, or Burgos, all of whom are on the 40 man. Behind them are Hellweg, Nelson and Jungmann who all could be in AAA at some point.

 

This rotation has flexibility. Other than Gallardo, there's no need to keep a guy in the rotation for the duration if he's not doing the job. They can either send guys down, or move them to the pen. Oakland won a ton of games last year with a lot less experience heading into 2012.

 

With this current offense, this staff should be able to keep them in contention. With a payroll of $80 million, they can deal for a starter at midseason if needed.

[paul253]

Let me rephrase. I don't think that Corey Hart is the difference maker next season. I think that if the starters perform at or above expectations they'll be a serious playoff contender whether the 1B is Hart or Gamel. Unless of course the bullpen blows it again.

[TheCrew07]

I wonder if Seattle would give up Walker Paxton or Hultzen for Hart. Obviously it would require Hart being willing to sign a long term deal with them.

 

I don't see Seattle making a move like that, their AA pitching staff to start the year was phenomenal from a talent standpoint and hitting tends to carries much more value dollar wise in FA. They would be better off holding onto their pitching and working to plug positional holes in FA.

 

By the end of 2013 Seattle could have Felix, Hultzen, and Paxton in the mlb rotation. If Taijuan Walker progresses he could also be there but more likely 2014, I think he'd be up no later than 2015. That's a ton of fire power, 3 young pitchers who profile as 1/2s best case and 2 of them are left handed. Seattle had more impact LH pitching on their AA team last year than we had in our entire organization, if I were Jack Z I wouldn't move any of those guys. Paxton tops out at 98, Hultzen at 94, and Walker 97 with "electric life" as a 19 year old.

[sheetskout]

Oakland won a ton of games last year with a lot less experience heading into 2012.

 

Oakland did something that happens once every five years, or really since they-themselves did it last. The Athletics won 94 games without a 90 RBI hitter, a 200 IP pitcher, a 30-save closer, or a hitter with more than 150 hits. This was the ultimate seasonal anomaly and a scenario that shouldn't be accepted as the norm entering a season.

 

That being said, what the Brewers need out of Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, Rogers (or maybe one of the others) is enough to be a #2/3, without dealing for a FA or trading Hart. It's important simply on the basis that we need those innings eaten up. Frankly, right now I don't believe this to be probable which is why it's imperative we get another starter.

[nate82]

Not to derail this but I have heard from a friend who works for the Mariners is that Paxton is being discussed in the three team deal for Upton. So I am fairly sure none of the young arms the Mariners have would be available in a trade for Hart. Smoak would probably be a more realistic return.

[reillymcshane]

Oakland won a ton of games last year with a lot less experience heading into 2012.

Just because something happened doesn't mean it will likely happen again. You see that over and over in the world (but somehow people don't seem to learn the lesson).

 

I call it the 'anecdotal evidence' dilemma. A person latches onto limited evidence or a small sample of information and uses it as a basis for their argument. It's a poor, poor way to make plans (not just for a baseball team, but for just about anything in life).

 

I'm not saying that Oakland's approach last year was wrong. I am saying that it's dangerous to take that one instance in the baseball world and use it as your justification for constructing your roster. You need to take a greater sample to understand the odds of such an approach.

 

Oakland did win a lot of games last year with very young pitchers, so it does show you can have success with such a roster. But just because it happened once doesn't mean it's likely to happen again.

[TooLiveBrew]

Tampa, Cincy, and Washington are other recent examples of teams winning with a lot of young pitching. It's not necessarily as much an anomaly as it is that your young pitchers have to actually be talented. Imo a lot of times teams go with young pitching, they're going through rebuilding and the quality of said young pitching isn't necessarily comparable to the four examples in this discussion (or even the Brewers' young arms imho).

 

If the Brewers want to build a team that can sustain contention, and not just take 1-yr. or 2-yr. 'shots' at contending, they're going to have to do it by cycling through & depending upon young pitching. Ideally I'd like to see an experienced arm added to the rotation, to eat up innings that younger arms won't be conditioned enough yet to provide. But I'd much rather the Brewers just go fully from within than see them sign a terrible contract with Dempster/some other overpriced FA, or give up a ton via trade for a short-term patch like Marcum/Greinke.

 

Fwiw, I wholly agree with you on the 'anecdotal evidence dilemma'. But I think Oakland's good young pitching was probably more related to talent than simply a fluky good season.

[TheCrew07]

Tampa has introduced young pitching year after year, it's not like A's are the only team...

 

Most of our young pitchers already have their feet wet to varying degrees of success, it's not like they are completely unknown and/or are stepping into the fray for the first time.

 

While their collective production is still in doubt at least they won't be true rookies. I'm good with all of Fiers, Peralta, and Rogers starting the year in the rotation. That still leaves room for Estrada or Narveson, in fact Narveson might be the LH bullpen arm people are looking for. Fiers isn't a rookie anymore, there's really not a good reason for Peralta to repeat AAA, and Rogers is out of options, it's time to see what our higher upside arms will do. At some point we need to give every young/inexperienced player a chance to perform, there's no such thing as a finished product in baseball, ultimately they all need to learn and perform at MLB. If any of those guys ultimately end up in the bullpen that's fine (I actually hope Fiers ends up there being pushed out of the rotation by better pitchers), but I'd rather it not be an arbitrary decision based solely on some random veteran based quality like "playoff/big game experience", "known quantity", or "proven MLB pitcher".

 

Those phrases are meaningless to me, relative talent wins games over a 162 season and that's plenty enough experience for the playoffs. After all Yo outpitched the rest of the staff when he was rookie in his first playoff experience without the benefit of a full season. Experience is nice and all but that shouldn't be the overriding factor in determining how best to field a rotation, it should go much deeper and consider the various risk factors as well.

 

We'll never get on top of our pitching issues as an organization if we keep settling for expensive and/or short term solutions. Pitching is too valuable to approach on a year by year basis, there's too much market demand, and the costs of acquiring are too great if you don't have it. I would love to be in a position where Tampa has been where we can introduce 1 new young starting pitcher to the rotation every year. That should be the goal, a talented roster but yet extremely well rounded roster from cost\experience standpoint. I'd like our average age to be somewhere in the 26-27 range every year, veterans will certainly have their place, but I'd rather it was niche role instead of the main focus. We should be counting on 1-3 rookies playing a significant role every year as Milwaukee doesn't have the resources to support a largely veteran team. It would be nice if we could develop players like Hart, Weeks, and Hardy and then be able to retain them indefinitely, but that's not our reality as a MLB franchise.

[jhpc12]

I think the thing that is going to prevent keeping Corey is the contracts that Upton, Victorino, and Pagan have signed. I think you have to look at reworking his contract. Maybe something in the line of 4/50 million. Thats what the market seems to be at at for this type of player. That keeps him in Milwaukee till he's 35 and that is quite a deal for someone that is going to hit .275-.280 hit an average of 30+ doubles 25+ homeruns and drive in 85+ runs.

 

I believe if he is not traded this year. If he puts up the numbers he did last year. He hits free agency next year and gets an Upton type deal. A five year deal in the neighborhood of 60-75 million I think this is a realistic number. He gives clubs some options. He's still very dependable in the outfield. He might need to move to left field. As a first basement he has the opportunity to be a gold glove caliber player over the next few years.

 

I watched probably 90% of the games he played at 1st. If it had been most other 1st basemen in the league the infield defense would have really suffered. He probably saved the infield a collective 10 or 15 errors. I can guarntee that Rameriz would have mentioned Corey if he had won the gold glove because he bailed him out on several throws from third.

 

Just my thoughts. He's everything you want in a "team player". I really believe he has been part of the core everyone always talks about, but is never mentioned as part of it. From what I can tell he's a fan favored, a good guy in the community, a good club house guy and a pretty darn good player to boot.

 

And to top it off he really wants to stay. I think if you weigh all that, he's one you want around your younger palyers. He seem to do it the right way.

[TURBO]

Love the guy, but I never want him to step foot in RF again... I have no stats to prove it, but his fielding in the OF has gone down hill the past couple of seasons. He just looks so slow out there, and has misplayed a ton of balls.

 

Since he is now blocking Hunter Morris, I'm not sure we have a place for him in the future past this season.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Let me rephrase. I don't think that Corey Hart is the difference maker next season. I think that if the starters perform at or above expectations they'll be a serious playoff contender whether the 1B is Hart or Gamel. Unless of course the bullpen blows it again.

 

You think Gamel is going to come close to 25-30 home runs, 30+ doubles, 85+ RBI's, 90 Runs? That's a big "if." I'm not even trying to start a Gamel topic here, but my point by bringing this up is to show just how big of a part Corey Hart plays in one of the top 2 or 3 offenses in the National League. By trading Hart and going with Gamel the offense will be downgraded, and possibly significantly for a year or two.

 

Why even think about trading Hart for pitching when we know a couple things, that despite having a 80 million payroll to (start) the season the Brewers will have flexibility to add payroll mid-season if a player(s) become available that we need or that would put us over the top AND when we have all of these quality young starting pitching prospects that have pretty much all gotten their feet wet while having various success, and are making the minimum salary.

 

I'm totally sold on giving Hart 3 more years and banking on the starting pitching prospects that we have waited a long time for to carry this franchise to bigger and better things. Keeping this offense in tact is vital.

[monty57]

I really believe he has been part of the core everyone always talks about, but is never mentioned as part of it.

 

I agree that Hart has been a part of the core, and I agree that he has been underappreciated. That said, the question is whether he should remain a part of the core going forward. Every team has a limited payroll, and the Brewers' is more limited than some others, yet they still need to field a team of 25 players. If Melvin tries to retain the same "core players" through their careers, the number of players in the "core" necessarily has to shrink as the players become more expensive. Therefore more of the 25-man roster has to be "non-core." I prefer what I call the "malleable core." Instead of trying to sign everyone through their career, build a core where aging core players are traded/let walk as younger, less expensive players prove they're "core players" and are extended on Lucroy-style contracts. One year of Hart on a new deal will probably cost about as much as Lucroy's entire contract.

 

Trading Greinke last year brought in at least one new core player in Segura. I would expect Melvin to attempt to lock him up to a Lucroy-style deal in the near future. Trading Hart could potentially bring in a core player at a different position. I expect some of our young pitchers to prove they're part of the core in the next couple of years. We can't afford too many eight-figure salaries on the roster, but we could afford a lot of Lucroy-type deals, and the Lucroy-type deals bear a lot less financial risk and are much easier to trade if a new "core player" comes along.

 

I doubt we could extend Hart while holding on to Braun, Yo, Weeks and Ramirez, and still be able to lock up young players while filling in other holes through free agency. We just don't have the resources. It's amazing how having a $500k player on the roster instead of a $10-15MM player can change the dynamics of roster building. I like Hart, and applaud what he has done for the Brewers. However, if we could trade him for a Segura-level player who could be an inexpensive part of our core for the next 6-8 years, I'd do it in a heartbeat (no pun intended).

[TooLiveBrew]

You think Gamel is going to come close to 25-30 home runs, 30+ doubles, 85+ RBI's, 90 Runs? That's a big "if." I'm not even trying to start a Gamel topic here, but my point by bringing this up is to show just how big of a part Corey Hart plays in one of the top 2 or 3 offenses in the National League. By trading Hart and going with Gamel the offense will be downgraded, and possibly significantly for a year or two.

In short, yes. Gamel will get on base at a better clip, offer very similar (if not better) defense, and would probably be a 20-30 HR guy over the course of a full season. Even if he's a step down in terms of total OPS, his higher OBP and drastically lower cost would be the right move for the Brewers to make if they can get value from trading Corey. The Brewers found their SS for the next 6 seasons (plus two solid P prospects) for half a season of Greinke -- I think it's safe to say a full season of Hart+comp pick would net a pretty good return. I'm not dead-set on trading Hart, but I do think many here are well underselling what a 'bargain/team-friendly' contract would actually run. I don't think $10-12M AAV would necessarily get it done.

[paul253]

You think Gamel is going to come close to 25-30 home runs

 

I think given a full year he could hit somewhere in the .275 range with 15-20 home runs and 70+ RBI. I'm not suggesting he'll put up Hart numbers but let's remember Hart's OBP was pretty average and he struck out a ton. And it's not like Gamel lost the job last season. This isn't Kevin Barker here.

 

Let's remember that the Brewers offense was fine this year even with Fielder leaving and Weeks having an awful year. And the SS position was pretty pathetic most of the year too. And don't forget Lucroy was hurt for awhile. While Gamel likely won't product Hart numbers I don't expect the Brewers to all of a sudden go from a top 3 offense to one in the 8-10 range just because Corey Hart is gone, especially if Weeks returns to form.

 

Corey Hart was a core player (still is) for a long time. But this is all about the future of the team. At some point he is going to need to be replaced. Is it worth signing a 30+ year old for three years at probably $11-12 million a year and blocking your top positional prospect? Personally I don't think it is.

[PrinceFielderx1]

You think Gamel is going to come close to 25-30 home runs, 30+ doubles, 85+ RBI's, 90 Runs? That's a big "if." I'm not even trying to start a Gamel topic here, but my point by bringing this up is to show just how big of a part Corey Hart plays in one of the top 2 or 3 offenses in the National League. By trading Hart and going with Gamel the offense will be downgraded, and possibly significantly for a year or two.

In short, yes. Gamel will get on base at a better clip, offer very similar (if not better) defense, and would probably be a 20-30 HR guy over the course of a full season. Even if he's a step down in terms of total OPS, his higher OBP and drastically lower cost would be the right move for the Brewers to make if they can get value from trading Corey. The Brewers found their SS for the next 6 seasons (plus two solid P prospects) for half a season of Greinke -- I think it's safe to say a full season of Hart+comp pick would net a pretty good return. I'm not dead-set on trading Hart, but I do think many here are well underselling what a 'bargain/team-friendly' contract would actually run. I don't think $10-12M AAV would necessarily get it done.

 

His 1st full-season in the Majors? Can he even play a full season in the Majors? Or a better question is will the Brewers upper management even give him the chance to be a full time starter again at 1 position? I've heard that they want him to be more versatile and to play multiple positions RF, LF and some 3B, which sounds like they have no plans to make him a regular starter any time soon. Then there is Hunter Morris who if the Brewers give him a chance will take a couple seasons to get his barrings and who knows if he will even pan out. I don't see either happening any time soon, because of the risk involved and the Brewers are trying to win now.

[TooLiveBrew]

His 1st full-season in the Majors? Can he even play a full season in the Majors? Or a better question is will the Brewers upper management even give him the chance to be a full time starter again at 1 position? I've heard that they want him to be more versatile and to play multiple positions RF, LF and some 3B, which sounds like they have no plans to make him a regular starter any time soon. Then there is Hunter Morris who if the Brewers give him a chance will take a couple seasons to get his barrings and who knows if he will even pan out. I don't see either happening any time soon, because of the risk involved and the Brewers are trying to win now.

I realize you think I'm wrong, but nowhere in my post did I state any kind of doubts about Gamel's bat. Heck, Hart is hardly the model of a full-season-guaranteed player. What the Brewers are asking Gamel to do, position-wise, doesn't affect my opinion of his bat. They should absolutely be planning to go forward with Hart in the mix for '13 (aka asking Gamel to get more versatile on defense), because there's no guarantee that Hart would be traded. As it stands, Hart would be better at 1B with Gamel in RF as opposed to the alternate scenario (yes, I remember Aoki... just an example).

 

Hunter Morris shouldn't factor into what the Brewers do with Hart or Gamel in any major sense. He's had one season of success at the plate so far & wasn't regarded as even an average defender prior to '12. If Morris forces the Brewers' hand further, that would be great. But I definitely want to see more from him before I start planning around his arrival in Milwaukee.

[PrinceFielderx1]

His 1st full-season in the Majors? Can he even play a full season in the Majors? Or a better question is will the Brewers upper management even give him the chance to be a full time starter again at 1 position? I've heard that they want him to be more versatile and to play multiple positions RF, LF and some 3B, which sounds like they have no plans to make him a regular starter any time soon. Then there is Hunter Morris who if the Brewers give him a chance will take a couple seasons to get his barrings and who knows if he will even pan out. I don't see either happening any time soon, because of the risk involved and the Brewers are trying to win now.

I realize you think I'm wrong, but nowhere in my post did I state any kind of doubts about Gamel's bat. Heck, Hart is hardly the model of a full-season-guaranteed player. What the Brewers are asking Gamel to do, position-wise, doesn't affect my opinion of his bat. They should absolutely be planning to go forward with Hart in the mix for '13 (aka asking Gamel to get more versatile on defense), because there's no guarantee that Hart would be traded. As it stands, Hart would be better at 1B with Gamel in RF as opposed to the alternate scenario (yes, I remember Aoki... just an example).

 

Hunter Morris shouldn't factor into what the Brewers do with Hart or Gamel in any major sense. He's had one season of success at the plate so far & wasn't regarded as even an average defender prior to '12. If Morris forces the Brewers' hand further, that would be great. But I definitely want to see more from him before I start planning around his arrival in Milwaukee.

 

For the record, I know you don't have doubts when it comes to Gamel's bat. I do, though, and that's perfectly ok, so we will just call it truce on that. It makes me wonder though that if the Brewers management really believed in Gamel's bat, then why aren't the Brewers giving him the RF position to start the 2013 season?

 

I don't think Gamel will get another chance to be a starter again for the Brewers, unless there is an injury to one of the starters. Right now Aoki (1.5 million salary) has the RF position and Hart has 1B, and I could see Gamel on the Brewers bench. The Brewers (Roenicke) really likes Aoki and his style of play/plate discipline/leadoff ability. Gamel has once again lost his position as a starter. The kid has had his chances, and bad luck.

 

I agree about Morris.

[brewcrewdue80]

I compared him earlier to Swisher. Who trade rumors just raised his asking price from 4/44 to 4/60 mil! I would have to fully believe Brewers have offered 10mil/yr as what posters above me have suggested being offered. The asking price seems to be 13-16mil/yr suddenly for fringe all star players with the likelihood to make an all star in the next 4 seasons.

The really sad thing is everyone is talking about the draft pick compensation like its a given. It's not only upon a Qualifying offer which after this crazy FA could be 14.5mil on 1year. As with Francisco Rodriquez, the Brewers could make that offer w/o wanting to sign Hart but to get the draft pick only to get the financial screw job by Hart taking the offer. I think Rodriquez is responsible for all the problems now with payroll. In that his 11? 12?mil was it? Expense to the team was never calculated in the budget.

 

Here's what I see happening. The QO meant to help small market teams either retain their players with a decent 1yr offer or at the very least get compensation with the draft pick. The rising avg in price has made for a basic asking price and then some. Even though the player is on that barely worth the QO. Much less more. The Yankees I believe were the only ones to extend multiple QOs, and why not? They can run with a 18mil/yr 40man roster and still make money! Small market teams are actually hindered in whether to risk the offer for the compensation or risk being overbudget and losing money.

 

In Hart, the Brewers may not have the wiggle room to throw 14mil at him next season as a QO and thus don't even get the pick everyone is expecting. I'd trade him if DM has that worry after Rodriquez, and get your prospects who you've studied versus a gamble on a 45-65 type pick that has no guarantee of making it through the minors.

[DHonks]

paul, why do want to deal an above average 1st basemen with tremendous power and an under-market contact IN HIS PRIME to make room for a prospect that could be the next Mat Gamel, Kevin Barker, Joey Meyer, Alex Escobar, Corey Patterson, Brandon Wood, Sean Burroughs, Russell Branyan, etc? Morris could be a good 1st baseman, maybe even a star. But it would be foolish to move Hart for Morris until he's at least performed in AAA.

[RockCoCougars]

Morris is a long way away from ever doing anything in Milwaukee. A lot of people are writing him into the first base slot extremely prematurely in my view. Over the years, the Brewers have had many 1B prospects... but throughout the history of the franchise, only two have panned out (Prince and Jaha).