Rosenthal: Brewers and Hart working on an extension (11/9: Or are they?)

[Hitman_Hart]

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/09/brewers-working-on-contract-extension-with-corey-hart/

 

Whoo!

[PrinceEatMeat]

Hart already said this isn't true. http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/178094741.html

 

But nonetheless, I'd like to see it happen if the the amount of years and the money are reasonable.

[DoubleSwitch]

Three years sounds like he's willing to be really team friendly here. I wasn't wild about extending him to play in the outfield before this season, but he transitioned pretty seamlessly to First Base. Something in the 3/30-36 range would be a pretty good deal imo. I know Morris took a big step this past year, but I'd like to see a pretty significant jump in his walk rate, or at the very least more than 1 big year before I start penciling him into play a major league 1B any time soon.

[fondybrewfan]

I would increase his 2013 salary and give him a 2/24 extension after that; make it effectivey a 3/36 deal. Seems fair all the way around. Hart has been a solid producer for a long time.

 

That being said I have no interest in him going back to RF. TH speculated that Hunter Morris might bump him back there in 2014. With Hart's age and declining athletic ability I really don't want to watch him being a hack out in RF. Move Morris out there if you have to.

[djoctagone]

with the proposed extension, the brewers would be in need of a starting first baseman in 2016. hunter morris doesn't have to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2013 season . . . which would make 2016 his final year of minor league options.

[Raw Biz]

I'm still of the mindset that it's a bad idea to extend guys into their 30s, unless of course they are a truly special player like Braun. Hart is basically an average to slightly above-average 1B (in terms of OPS). He might offer some benefits defensively (being tall really helps) but I don't think he would be worth market value. That being said, if he were willing to sign for below-market (i.e. $10 million/yr tops), I would consider it but only for 2 years (2013-2014).

 

I really want to get away from blocking younger guys by signing/re-signing aging "proven" vets. Morris may not succeed but we won't know if he doesn't get the chance. I really don't want to see him become the next Gamel/Green. 1B is also usually one of the easiest positions to fill and we have a lot of all-bat/little defensive guys who could probably handle it should Morris not work out.

 

Bottom line: Extend through 2014 (2/20) or let walk. Better yet, I honestly wouldn't mind just trading him for pitching this year and letting Gamel handle 1B again, with Green/cheap bench guy as backup plans. With Braun, ARam, Aoki, Lucroy, Weeks, and Segura, in addition to a healthy Gamel, I think we have enough offense to cover Hart's loss. It's all about pitching.

[joepepsi]

Richie Sexson was similar height and build. I always liked both him and Corey. But Richie's last good season was 2006 when he was 31 years old. He fell off the table the next year, and was done after 2008.

 

I know Corey may be more athletic and hits for a little better average, but Sexson was a good 1B, had better plate discipline and HR power. 6'6" is tall for a baseball player and the back starts a achin' on these tall guys past 30.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't think there's any correlation between height and back problems. Some guys just have bad backs (Fred Couples comes to mind). Guys' production falls off based on any number of factors as they age, but I think the odds are pretty good that Hart will still be productive at age 33.

 

Dave Winfield was productive into his late 30's. Dave Kingman hit 100 home runs from age 35 to 37.

[Ennder]

Not just for sports but in general there is a strong correlation with back problems and height. It puts a lot of extra pressure on your spine. Dunno what it translates into for baseball though.

[dlk9s]

As long as the extension isn't for some insane duration, I'm not particularly worried about a significant dropoff in skill. I mean, Corey might not be as good three years from now, but I wouldn't predict him falling off a cliff. I'm all for extending guys who enjoy playing in Milwaukee as long as the contract is reasonable.

[jerichoholicninja]

Richie Sexson was similar height and build. I always liked both him and Corey. But Richie's last good season was 2006 when he was 31 years old. He fell off the table the next year, and was done after 2008.

 

Richie had some serious shoulder problems. Corey's not a bastion of health either but he's not as bad as Sexon was at the end.

[Fear The Chorizo]

yeah, sexson basically check-swinged his shoulder out of its socket and was never the same player afterwards. Hart has had mainly leg/knee issues, correct? Seems like moving him to first base and out of the outfield would only help things, right.

 

I'm good with adding a couple more years to his deal, but by no means should it break the bank or extend him into his late 30's...

[markedman5]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/brewers.html

[Roderick]

... Corey might not be as good three years from now, but I wouldn't predict him falling off a cliff.

 

I don't know that I would call it falling off the cliff, but I always fear he could revert to his flailing at everything way low and outside like the end of the 2008 season. That said, if he is willing to take a discount, I would see about bumping his 2013 pay and tacking on two more years as someone else posted.

[monkeyman343434]

I really don't like this idea at all.

 

What are they going to do with him? Keep him at 1B and then do what with Hunter Morris if he keeps hitting at AAA in '13 like he did in AA in '12?

 

Move him to RF where he doesn't belong on the wrong side of 30?

[JohnBriggs12]

... Corey might not be as good three years from now, but I wouldn't predict him falling off a cliff.

 

I don't know that I would call it falling off the cliff, but I always fear he could revert to his flailing at everything way low and outside like the end of the 2008 season. That said, if he is willing to take a discount, I would see about bumping his 2013 pay and tacking on two more years as someone else posted.

 

 

Early in his career when he ran a lot, Hart was somewhat conflicted as a hitter. He saw himself at times as more of a speed guy and his power disappeared for long stretches. In 2010, he finally realized power was his biggest asset, and he focused more on waiting for pitches he could drive. Since then, he's been a very potent hitter. I don't think we'll see him go back.

[logan82]

I really don't like this idea at all.

 

What are they going to do with him? Keep him at 1B and then do what with Hunter Morris if he keeps hitting at AAA in '13 like he did in AA in '12?

 

Move him to RF where he doesn't belong on the wrong side of 30?

It is pretty easy to leave Morris in AAA all of next year. Maybe even a year after that if necessary. Hate to hold a guy back but not much you can do if the MLB guy is playing well.

[Outlander]

I would be real happy with a three year contract as I have to see more than one good year in the minors from Morris before having confidence in him.

[Hate those Rodents]

It would be a waste to resign him with Gamel or Morris possibly being ready to play better ball than Corey by 2014.

[dlk9s]

It would be a waste to resign him with Gamel or Morris possibly being ready to play better ball than Corey by 2014.

 

Considering the key word there is "possibly," then no, it wouldn't be a waste.

[ORBrewerFan]

A decent performance/salary comparison would be Adam LaRoche. LaRoche will likely get a three- or four-year deal for $13-14M this offseason. Hart is more than two years younger and has been much more consistent, especially over the last three years.

 

Two additional years at $12-13M would be a below market extension.

[gregmag]

It would be a waste to resign him with Gamel or Morris possibly being ready to play better ball than Corey by 2014.

 

Considering the key word there is "possibly," then no, it wouldn't be a waste.

Young players aren't the only risky players. Veterans are risky too. Hart has of course lost his speed, he has little defensive value left, and he has never been a strong OBP guy. His power is everything, and at this point it's a great asset. But he's approaching the age where a lot of players shed skills, and only one skill keeps him in the lineup; he can't afford to lose ground.

 

Add to that the fact that we don't just have one younger 1b candidate who has shown promise. We have Gamel, Morris, maybe Khris Davis. Plus, if you decline to pay market value for your 1b, and he keeps hitting for somebody else, and all of your in-house young options flame out -- if that complete worst-case scenario comes to pass, slugging 1bs who want market value aren't that hard to find.

 

I think signing Hart to an extension makes little sense. We have him under contract for next year. I'd trade him if he could bring back something we need, but that's a closer argument with the team arguably in contention mode. So let him play next year, trade him at the deadline if we're out of it. We'll have more and more useful information about him and about our young 1b options in another six months.

[RobDeer 45]

This is another one of those, I'll really hate to see the guy go, but extending him has higher risk of it blowing up in our face. I loved him at 1b this year and the guy really played well for us. I worry about his body holding up. It just seems like his body is on the decline (injuries, decline in speed, etc). I'd love to have him on the team but I just don't see it as a smart move for the club. Of course, there is a dollar/yr amount where it may make sense, but I don't know if they can get to that.

[monty57]

Think marginal:

 

In a year, or two, or three, would the money spent to hold onto Hart be better spent upgrading elsewhere? How much better will Hart be than his alternative (Morris/Gamel) vs how much better a different $12-15MM player would be than our worst player at another position.

 

...or...

 

Would the return from Hart in trade upgrade another position (including cost and "team control") more than we would lose by moving from Hart to Gamel/Morris at 1B?

 

Any signing is about much more than "is he worth it." It's about marginal differences and other available opportunities.

[dlk9s]

monty57 dropping a little econ on BF.net.