Brewers Arbitration Eligibles - From MLB Trade Rumors

[Bnowell4evr]

I've posted this before, I'm a big Edwin Jackson fan. I think he's an underrated pitcher, but I could never figure out why he hasn't been able to stick with one team. He's also a Boras guy, so I guess it would be a longshot for him to sign here.

 

I'm pretty sure I read that Edwin Jackson left Scott Boras. The only problem with Jackson is that he's likely to cost a draft pick.

[TooLiveBrew]

MLBTR's post on the topic: "Edwin Jackson to Join Legacy Agency"

[wisniewski]

Wow I didn't realize he left Boras. Thank you for that link.

[joepepsi]

As I recall arbitration was the owners' idea. The players' realized right away it would mean huge raises and signed on board.

[TooLiveBrew]

This is a good piece from Baseball Prospectus on the arbitration process. It's from 2005, but still worth a read.

[logan82]

"Think of it as making up for being underpaid during the arby years". If I'm an employer, I want to pay you what you are worth to me right now. I don't want to pay you based on your numbers from a year ago because there is this feeling that we need to "make it up to you".

 

I think what Logan was saying is that compared to other sports, baseball players in their first three years are paid a pittance, so naturally the arbitration years are going to give players a raise. If the team doesn't think the player is worth the raise, they simply don't offer arbitration, allowing the player to find a job on the open market. Most jobs don't draft employees and hold them with "team control," disallowing them from finding work with a competitor.

That is pretty close. I am saying that pre-arby players are doing a job that pays far more than they are making. By the time they get to arby they start to make money more in line with the job they are doing. Sure they get big raises but they are dramatically underpaid until they get to arby. FA guys are generally overpaid but you are worth whatever somebody will pay. The service time system artificially suppresses wages. I don't see anybody complaining about players being underpaid.

[torts]

What about salary cuts? Isn't there a rule about this?

Yes, there is, and this is one of the more confusing rules in baseball contracts. No club may submit a salary figure that is less than 80% of the player's previous year's salary (or 70% of his salary two years' previous).

 

The CBA is incredibly unclear on this point, but it seems that for the purposes of this rule the term "salary" is a combination of guaranteed money and earned performance bonuses. This is critically different from the rule regarding maximum salary reduction for players who have not yet reached salary arbitration eligibility. For pre-arbitration players the term "salary" is a combination of guaranteed money, earned performance bonuses and unearned performance bonuses. In any case, it is incredibly rare for this rule to come into play. The nature of the arbitration system almost never propagates salary reductions.

 

The maximum-cut rule does not apply for free agents in arbitration. The Collective Bargaining Agreement specifically states that the maximum salary reduction rule is inapplicable in free-agent arbitration cases. To clarify, when Joe Sheehan wrote that that Toronto wouldn't risk going to arbitration with Carlos Delgado because of the 80% salary rule, he had his facts wrong. The rule didn't apply to Delgado because of his free-agent status.

 

The last case where someone walked out of an arbitration hearing with less money than they made the previous year was Randy Milligan in 1994. Occasionally players settle prior to their hearing and settle at a salary that is less than they made the year before, but even that is extremely rare.

[HiAndTight]

We've already heard Axford will be back (though at that price, he's quickly becoming expensive). Gomez is a no-brainer, and so is Estrada.

 

I'm going to say that Loe, Parra, Veras, and Morgan all aren't tendered contracts. Morgan is a lock for a non-tender, as Schafer is clearly the 4th OF in the organization now. Parra also seems like a good bet. The other two are more up in the air, and might actually get traded.

 

If Narveson's shoulder surgery is still serious, I'd say he's a non-tender and resign on a minor league deal type player. Ishikawa is getting non-tendered for sure as well to give room to Mat Gamel.

 

All in all, the Brewers will likely look like this, then:

C - Jonathan Lucroy ($750k)

1B - Corey Hart ($10 M)

2B - Rickie Weeks ($10 M)

SS - Jean Segura ($500k)

3B - Aramis Ramirez ($10 M)

LF - Ryan Braun ($11 M)

CF - Carlos Gomez ($3.4 M)

RF - Nori Aoki ($1.25 M)

BEN - Martin Maldonado ($500k)

BEN - Mat Gamel ($500k)

BEN - Logan Schafer ($500k)

BEN - Taylor Green ($500k)

BEN - SS? (Jeff Bianchi ($500k))

 

SP - Yovani Gallardo ($7.75 M)

SP - Free Agent ($X M)

SP - Michael Fiers ($500k)

SP - Wily Peralta ($500k)

SP - Marco Estrada ($500k)

LR - Mark Rogers ($500k)

CL - John Axford ($5.1 M)

SU - Jim Henderson ($500k)

BP - Brandon Kinztler ($500k)

BP - FA

BP - FA

BP - FA

If you go off of a $90 M payroll, with $65.25 M, that gives us $24.75 M spending money to go get a bullpen and a #2 starter. Seems quite doable.

 

 

Why would we go off a 90 million dollar payroll though? We've been significantly higher the last few years and we have a significant new revenue stream coming in starting this upcoming season. 90 million after ending '10 at 96 and starting last year at 106 with our new TV deal and the additional MLB revenue would be akin to having had a 70 million dollar payroll the last couple years.

 

If the players are out there that are worth it. Not Kyle Lohse for 5/75 or anything, but players we want, 105 is a pretty safe bet.

 

It's one of the huge luxuries of having good young players to fill our young bench, young starting pitchers, and an established closer. 5.1 seems pretty high for a guy entering his first year of arbitration though. 5.1 for a 1st year Arby eligible reliever seems incredibly high, especially given his numbers for this past year.

 

If that is his number, I'd look at consider trading him after this season while his value is still high...provided his value is still high......obviously.

[HiAndTight]

What about salary cuts? Isn't there a rule about this?

Yes, there is, and this is one of the more confusing rules in baseball contracts. No club may submit a salary figure that is less than 80% of the player's previous year's salary (or 70% of his salary two years' previous).

 

The CBA is incredibly unclear on this point, but it seems that for the purposes of this rule the term "salary" is a combination of guaranteed money and earned performance bonuses. This is critically different from the rule regarding maximum salary reduction for players who have not yet reached salary arbitration eligibility. For pre-arbitration players the term "salary" is a combination of guaranteed money, earned performance bonuses and unearned performance bonuses. In any case, it is incredibly rare for this rule to come into play. The nature of the arbitration system almost never propagates salary reductions.

 

The maximum-cut rule does not apply for free agents in arbitration. The Collective Bargaining Agreement specifically states that the maximum salary reduction rule is inapplicable in free-agent arbitration cases. To clarify, when Joe Sheehan wrote that that Toronto wouldn't risk going to arbitration with Carlos Delgado because of the 80% salary rule, he had his facts wrong. The rule didn't apply to Delgado because of his free-agent status.

 

The last case where someone walked out of an arbitration hearing with less money than they made the previous year was Randy Milligan in 1994. Occasionally players settle prior to their hearing and settle at a salary that is less than they made the year before, but even that is extremely rare.

 

 

You absolutely certain about the Delgado time frame? I was certainly under the impression that there was a rule in place at the time. You seem to have this pretty well covered and since you're citing Delgado in particular, you seem certain, so I'll defer to you. I was under the impression that there initially was the 80% rule for impending Free Agents in offering them arbitration.

[HiAndTight]

Lohse has all the makings of another Suppan.

 

Are we just going to throw all Cardinal Free Agent pitchers into this grouping? When he's healthy, he's pretty damn good. And I don't recall Suppan ever dominating like Lohse has last year and over a 2 season period.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not singing up for 5 years and 75 million like some are suggesting, or whatever the case may be. But we really need to put a lid on the Suppan deal. It didn't work out.

 

I've posted this before, I'm a big Edwin Jackson fan. I think he's an underrated pitcher, but I could never figure out why he hasn't been able to stick with one team. He's also a Boras guy, so I guess it would be a longshot for him to sign here.

 

He signed with Washington last year for 1 year 11 million. And they certainly weren't the prohibitive favorites picked to finish 4th in the AL East. A good team to sign on long term for, but not exactly the pick for this season.

 

As others have said, Boras is no longer his agent. Not sure what his market value would be, but obviously I hope the Brewers decide what they think he's worth and don't deviate too much from that. 4/44 would be fine by me. 3/40 would be pushing it, but still in consideration. But we'll see if that gets it done.

 

Not sure why his value would be so much higher this year than last year when he was the #4/5 pitcher on the Nats.

 

He has been traded for some pretty valuable prospects/established players, so that makes a little sense as to why he's been traded and moved around so often.