Brewers Arbitration Eligibles - From MLB Trade Rumors

[OglivieHomePerm]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/arbitration-eligibles-milwaukee-brewers.html

 

They are projecting the following arbitration estimates:

•First time: John Axford ($5.1MM), Travis Ishikawa ($900K), Chris Narveson ($800K), Marco Estrada ($1.6MM)

•Second time: Nyjer Morgan ($2.6MM)

•Third time: Jose Veras ($2.6MM), Manny Parra ($1.6MM), Kameron Loe ($2.6MM)

•Fourth time: Carlos Gomez ($3.4MM)

[ramssuperbowl1999]

We've already heard Axford will be back (though at that price, he's quickly becoming expensive). Gomez is a no-brainer, and so is Estrada.

 

I'm going to say that Loe, Parra, Veras, and Morgan all aren't tendered contracts. Morgan is a lock for a non-tender, as Schafer is clearly the 4th OF in the organization now. Parra also seems like a good bet. The other two are more up in the air, and might actually get traded.

 

If Narveson's shoulder surgery is still serious, I'd say he's a non-tender and resign on a minor league deal type player. Ishikawa is getting non-tendered for sure as well to give room to Mat Gamel.

 

All in all, the Brewers will likely look like this, then:

C - Jonathan Lucroy ($750k)

1B - Corey Hart ($10 M)

2B - Rickie Weeks ($10 M)

SS - Jean Segura ($500k)

3B - Aramis Ramirez ($10 M)

LF - Ryan Braun ($11 M)

CF - Carlos Gomez ($3.4 M)

RF - Nori Aoki ($1.25 M)

BEN - Martin Maldonado ($500k)

BEN - Mat Gamel ($500k)

BEN - Logan Schafer ($500k)

BEN - Taylor Green ($500k)

BEN - SS? (Jeff Bianchi ($500k))

 

SP - Yovani Gallardo ($7.75 M)

SP - Free Agent ($X M)

SP - Michael Fiers ($500k)

SP - Wily Peralta ($500k)

SP - Marco Estrada ($500k)

LR - Mark Rogers ($500k)

CL - John Axford ($5.1 M)

SU - Jim Henderson ($500k)

BP - Brandon Kinztler ($500k)

BP - FA

BP - FA

BP - FA

 

If you go off of a $90 M payroll, with $65.25 M, that gives us $24.75 M spending money to go get a bullpen and a #2 starter. Seems quite doable.

[Patrick425]

I'll never understand the arbitration process. Basically the rule seems to be this - Are you still breathing? Yes? Well, guess what? - you get a raise!

[torts]

I'll never understand the arbitration process. Basically the rule seems to be this - Are you still breathing? Yes? Well, guess what? - you get a raise!

 

its simple:

 

player says they deserve $X dollars based on his performance from this past year

team says player deserves $Y dollars based on his performance from this past year

 

if neither can agree to one or the other amount, or a consensus between the two, they go to arbitration.

 

arbitrator then hears justification why player deserves what they asked for, and then hears why team feels player deserves what they offered. arbitrator than makes decision which party is right, and they get that amount, and its final.

 

there is an automatic payscale built into pre-arb and arbitration years. if a player does terrible, they're still going to get a minimum raise because that was how it was negotiated in the collective bargaining agreement that both parties agreed too. so teams will just say thats the amount the player deserves, and if the player feels they deserve more, than it is on him and his agent to justify why they deserve more than the minimum amount for a pre-arb/arb1-3 player.

[logan82]

You really have to think of it as all the prearby guys being severely underpaid. When they hit arby they start to get closer to getting paid what they are worth. If you think they don't deserve a raise I think you really need to look at what the average player is actually paid.

[Roderick]

I am going to guess more for Narveson and Loe and less for Axford. I was hoping the brewerfan.net salaries page was correct and Estrada wasn't arby yet.

[patrickgpe]

I think Axford, Narveson, Estrada and Gomez are locks. I'd be open to bringing back Ishikawa but at that price, Gamel could equal his production for half of that.

[bani1717]

You really have to think of it as all the prearby guys being severely underpaid. When they hit arby they start to get closer to getting paid what they are worth. If you think they don't deserve a raise I think you really need to look at what the average player is actually paid.

 

On the flip side, you also have to look at it as FA-eligible players being overpaid. If the limits weren't around for the younger players, teams would have less to dish out to the veterans (unless you're the Yankees, in which case you go out and pay for overpriced free agents no matter what). The true value of a player is somewhere between what a pre-arby player and a free agent of the same talent level make.

[1992casey]

I'll never understand the arbitration process. Basically the rule seems to be this - Are you still breathing? Yes? Well, guess what? - you get a raise!

It exists to prevent holdouts. If it comes down to a hearing, a player is compared to how others in his "class" performed and what they're being paid.

 

Teams and agents do their homework and tend to have an excellent idea of what a player is worth according to the process. The discrepancies occur when the player and team offers are far apart as the arbitrators can only pick one.

 

there is an automatic payscale built into pre-arb and arbitration years.

I've never seen a pay scale other than the minimum wage. Am I missing something? I would think that "semi-automatic" or "implied" pay scale would more accurately describe the setup.

[jerichoholicninja]

Parra got a raise this year despite not throwing one pitch last year. If he were to get a raise next year that would be more ludicrous than the raise he got this year.

[Patrick425]

Ok..I guess I should have worded that differently. I understand what arbitration means and somewhat how that process works. I guess I just will never agree with "pre-set" raises regardless of a player's performance. In my mind, you get a raise based on what you have done and the thought that you will continue to do it. If you don't continue to do it, you don't continue to get raises.

[logan82]

I guess I just will never agree with "pre-set" raises regardless of a player's performance. In my mind, you get a raise based on what you have done and the thought that you will continue to do it. If you don't continue to do it, you don't continue to get raises.

That is fine but you really have to think of how they are paid for the first 6 years as a probationary period where they are not paid what they are worth.

[torts]

Ok..I guess I should have worded that differently. I understand what arbitration means and somewhat how that process works. I guess I just will never agree with "pre-set" raises regardless of a player's performance. In my mind, you get a raise based on what you have done and the thought that you will continue to do it. If you don't continue to do it, you don't continue to get raises.

 

thats fine, but they're not in the world based on what people think, they're in the world of a union and a collectively bargained agreement that dictates the same rules for all players, regardless of skill or performance

[Ennder]

Ok..I guess I should have worded that differently. I understand what arbitration means and somewhat how that process works. I guess I just will never agree with "pre-set" raises regardless of a player's performance. In my mind, you get a raise based on what you have done and the thought that you will continue to do it. If you don't continue to do it, you don't continue to get raises.

 

That isn't even true in the real world much less baseball. At every job I've ever held I've had a raise every single year and so has everyone I work with no matter how terrible they are. The difference is bad employees got smaller raises and good ones got bigger ones. really awful employees got fired.

[trwi7]

I'll be pretty shocked if Axford gets that much.

[JohnBriggs12]

Veras didn't allow a run in his last 14 appearances and his stuff is such that with Parra, Loe and K-Rod coming off the books, I think he's a guy they'd want to bring back. If he thinks he wouldn't get his arby number as a FA, maybe even for a little less. But if not, I'd still tender him. Relief pitching being so hit and miss, Veras has as good a chance to be good next year as anyone they'd get off the street in his price range.

[Bnowell4evr]

If I'm DM I'm shopping and considering non tendering Axford. No way is he worth 5M.

[gregmag]

Veras didn't allow a run in his last 14 appearances and his stuff is such that with Parra, Loe and K-Rod coming off the books, I think he's a guy they'd want to bring back. If he thinks he wouldn't get his arby number as a FA, maybe even for a little less. But if not, I'd still tender him. Relief pitching being so hit and miss, Veras has as good a chance to be good next year as anyone they'd get off the street in his price range.

This is a very good statement of the case for Veras, and I'm leaning the same way. JB's critical point, I think, is that paying for relief pitching is always risky. Paying $2.6m for Veras seems like a good point on the risk curve. If he crashes, you aren't out huge dollars; if he succeeds, he could easily provide excess value. Plus, how many new relievers can a team add in one offseason? If we start with Ax, Henderson, Veras, and Kintzler, and we assume we can fill the seventh spot internally (have I mentioned that I hate seven-man bullpens?), then we need to find two relievers, plus one starter. That's plenty to do.

[Patrick425]

Ok..I guess I should have worded that differently. I understand what arbitration means and somewhat how that process works. I guess I just will never agree with "pre-set" raises regardless of a player's performance. In my mind, you get a raise based on what you have done and the thought that you will continue to do it. If you don't continue to do it, you don't continue to get raises.

 

That isn't even true in the real world much less baseball. At every job I've ever held I've had a raise every single year and so has everyone I work with no matter how terrible they are. The difference is bad employees got smaller raises and good ones got bigger ones. really awful employees got fired.

 

Well the difference is that in the real world there is usually some logic to the yearly raises. My wife works for a large multi-national corporation. Different "cost-centers" within the company are allotted pools of money at the end of the year. These pools are determined by formulas that take into account what kind of year the company has had financially. Some years the pools of money are larger than other years, and generally the raises range from anywhere to 1% to 5% for each employee. The average raise ends up basically being a "cost of living" raise. This also is similar to how raises were handed out at a large bank I use to work for over 12 years ago.

 

According to the numbers above Nyjer Morgan is slated to get a 10% bump. For what? What did he do this season to deserve a 10% increase? Axford - 1000%? I also don't buy this "Think of it as making up for being underpaid during the arby years". If I'm an employer, I want to pay you what you are worth to me right now. I don't want to pay you based on your numbers from a year ago because there is this feeling that we need to "make it up to you".

[OglivieHomePerm]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/offseason-outlook-milwaukee-brewers.html

 

Offseason Outlook for the Brewers was released today by mlbtraderumors.

[monty57]

"Think of it as making up for being underpaid during the arby years". If I'm an employer, I want to pay you what you are worth to me right now. I don't want to pay you based on your numbers from a year ago because there is this feeling that we need to "make it up to you".

 

I think what Logan was saying is that compared to other sports, baseball players in their first three years are paid a pittance, so naturally the arbitration years are going to give players a raise. If the team doesn't think the player is worth the raise, they simply don't offer arbitration, allowing the player to find a job on the open market. Most jobs don't draft employees and hold them with "team control," disallowing them from finding work with a competitor.

 

Star free agent players make a lot of money, but I'd guess that the average baseball player makes far less in his career than the average player in other sports, largely due to the pre-arby/arby system.

[MadScientist]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/offseason-outlook-milwaukee-brewers.html

 

Offseason Outlook for the Brewers was released today by mlbtraderumors.

from the article:

Free agents Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, Kyle Lohse, Dan Haren and Anibal Sanchez could become targets for the Brewers.

 

I hope they don't go for Lohse, my gut says he won't be anything like the last 2 years, but will be paid like those are the numbers he should put up. Sanchez and Haren look good, but are they available? According to baseball-reference, it looks like Haren has an option and Sanchez is eligible for 3rd year arbitration.

[Ennder]

Yeah Lohse really scares me. His career ERA is 4.45, his career xFIP is 4.45 and his career SIERRA is 4.53.

 

The past 2 seasons his ERA has been 3.39 and 2.86 his xFIPs have been 4.04 and 3.96 and his SIERRA have been 4.26 and 4.06. I can't help but think that a lot of his elite status has been flukey or at the very least heavily aided by playing with a good defense in a pitchers park. Low K guys in general are prone to wild swings in ERA because so much of their value is tied into not giving up HR at the wrong time, BABIP and LOB% and I just don't like the idea of Lohse in our park with our defense for multiple seasons.

[Outlander]

Lohse has all the makings of another Suppan.

[wisniewski]

I've posted this before, I'm a big Edwin Jackson fan. I think he's an underrated pitcher, but I could never figure out why he hasn't been able to stick with one team. He's also a Boras guy, so I guess it would be a longshot for him to sign here.