Possible Trade Targets - Starting Pitching

[craigharmann]

Any interest in Ricky Nolasco? He makes over the major league minimum so its a safe bet to say he's on the market.

 

Just reading on MLB Trade Rumors, and they're speculating one halfway decent prospect gets him. Maybe take a AA pitcher and trade him for Nolasco?

[Bnowell4evr]

Any interest in Ricky Nolasco? He makes over the major league minimum so its a safe bet to say he's on the market.

 

Just reading on MLB Trade Rumors, and they're speculating one halfway decent prospect gets him. Maybe take a AA pitcher and trade him for Nolasco?

 

I've been thinking about it and Nolasco is kind of an enigma. I don't think there's anyone who's had as big of a disconnect from their ERA's and FIP's as he has had the last 4 years. The peripherals say he's a solid #2/3 but his ERA is always in the mid 4's to low 5's. After a several years of it you have to believe that's what he is as a pitcher.

 

I don't think trading for Nolasco would be the best way to use a good chunk of our limited resources. Although there's certainly a case to be made that he'd be safer than signing a FA like Dempster, Jackson or dare I say Lohse to a multi-year deal.

 

Plus there's something to be said about getting a pitcher in a FA year. That extra motivation has turned scrubs into aces before.

[TooLiveBrew]

Nolasco's a pitcher who appears to be prone to the gopher ball, and that wouldn't play well at Miller Park. I'd pass, although with a different home park I might feel differently.

 

EDIT: Hmm, for some reason I remembered being struck by the amount of HRs he allows. Looking at him now, not sure it's as big a concern in recent seasons.

[reillymcshane]

Nolasco is one of those guys I always thought would break through and become more than just mediocre. His peripherals always seemed better than his ERA. But he's never done that, and he's pitched to a 4.50 ERA over the past few years.

 

Fangraphs seems to like Nolasco pretty well, tabbing him as a 2.5-3.0 WAR pitcher that last few years. His FIP numbers are far better than his ERAs - usually around 3.50-3.90.

 

I'm a little concerned about his declining strikeout rate. It's gone down four years in a row.

 

That said, I'd have no problem if we could get him for cheap. I certainly wouldn't give up anyone like Peralta or Thornburg. But if it was a salary dump, I'd be okay with taking a shot on him.

 

Because the thing is, I still think Nolasco could do really well. He's in a contract year, so the motivation should be there. Yes, he makes a lot. But any free agent - Dempster or Jackson or whomever, will make as much (or more) and for more years. I'd roll the dice on the guy and hope and pray the upside emerges. I'm not taking about him being a #1/2 starter, but a guy who could be a solid #3 type. (Yes, we all want a #1/2 guy, but outside of Greinke - and maybe Sanchez - there is no one available in FA. And guys like that simply aren't available in trades, or will cost a bundle.)

 

So, I guess it comes down to what he'd cost. I'd take him and his salary if it wasn't a lot.

[monty57]

Reilly summed things up pretty well. I'd only go multi-year for an ace. Otherwise, I'd look for a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy for one year. Nolasco fits that bill, and could be a good pickup to "bridge the gap" this year until we can be more certain that we can fill our rotation from the farm. If we could get him for a good price, I could get behind that signing. He might fall into the category where we could get him almost for nothing if we pick up all the salary, or we could offer a better prospect and not have to pay the whole salary. This is odd for me, but I'm not worried about adding his salary this season, as on a one-year deal it shouldn't hurt us.

[brewmann04]

I will be curious to see who the Brewers will target in FA to fill that #2 spot,no rumblings so far.

[reillymcshane]

I will be curious to see who the Brewers will target in FA to fill that #2 spot,no rumblings so far.

Rosenthal says the Brewers are interested in Dempster.

 

Count the Milwaukee Brewers among the teams interested in free-agent right-hander Ryan Dempster, particularly now that the Los Angeles Dodgers are showing greater interest in other pitchers.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/winter-meetings-new-york-mets-tampa-bay-rays-david-price-ra-dickey-110812

 

Nothing more, just that we're interested in him.

[brewmann04]

thanks for the heads up

[TooLiveBrew]

Nolasco's really a good idea for the Brewers as long as he'd be moved as a salary dump (aka not expensive). He's that 'Guy to eat up innings for when the young SPs hit innings limits' that's been discussed in this subforum.

[SRB]

Nolasco is very underrated even though he has Manny Parra Syndrome (ERA consistently under-performs his peripherals). Change of scene and a new pitching coaching staff might be able to fix some of that.

 

I don't know if Melvin would do both moves, but a Gallardo/Dempster/Nolasco 1-2-3 would be very solid given the Brewers offense (and assuming they stop the bleeding in the bullpen).

[monty57]

While Melvin wants to add a veteran starter this offseason, I highly doubt they will pick up two veteran starters.

 

Dempster is probably the better pitcher, but assuming they could get Nolasco in a "salary dump" trade without giving up much talent, I'd much rather see them do that than go multi-year with Dempster.

[Kelbysdaddy]

parra and kentrail davis for nolasco..... anyone? anyone?

[jerichoholicninja]

parra and kentrail davis for nolasco..... anyone? anyone?

 

Parra has no value at all. This would be a bad trade for the Marlins. Even if they are just trying to dump salary this doesn't make sense.

[Kelbysdaddy]

parra and kentrail davis for nolasco..... anyone? anyone?

 

Parra has no value at all. This would be a bad trade for the Marlins. Even if they are just trying to dump salary this doesn't make sense.

I was joking( I forget sarcasm doesn't translate to type). Manny needs to go and kentrail wont get rule 5 protection. I wouldn't say Manny has NO trade value, hes a lefty and has good velocity. He needs to figure out control and I'm sure someone would take a chance with him.

[reillymcshane]

While Melvin wants to add a veteran starter this offseason, I highly doubt they will pick up two veteran starters.

I certainly don't see spending big on two starters. But Dougie might bring in a reclamation project at a low salary with incentives. Maybe a guy coming of injury (Dallas Braden for instance). Or someone coming off a poor year, willing to work for cheap.

[Bnowell4evr]

While Melvin wants to add a veteran starter this offseason, I highly doubt they will pick up two veteran starters.

I certainly don't see spending big on two starters. But Dougie might bring in a reclamation project at a low salary with incentives. Maybe a guy coming of injury (Dallas Braden for instance). Or someone coming off a poor year, willing to work for cheap.

 

Someone (Doug or Gord) said they would like to get 1 or 2 SPs at the start of the offseason. I think getting a reclamation project would be a smart plan and I kind of got my eye on Scott Feldman to fill that role. If you look beyond his 2012 ERA and his injury riddled 2011 season you can see a potential #3 starter for very cheap. He's young for a FA (30), throws hard (91.7), limits his walks (2.33 BB/9) and a switch to the NL should boost his K ratio (6.99)

 

The bonus is that he has experience pitching out of the pen if he should fail as a starter.

[Ennder]

Yeah I'd say we need 2 arms as well. One who is reliable and one that can be dumped or thrown in the bullpen if the young guys all happen to pan out.

[reillymcshane]

While Melvin wants to add a veteran starter this offseason, I highly doubt they will pick up two veteran starters.

I certainly don't see spending big on two starters. But Dougie might bring in a reclamation project at a low salary with incentives. Maybe a guy coming of injury (Dallas Braden for instance). Or someone coming off a poor year, willing to work for cheap.

 

Someone (Doug or Gord) said they would like to get 1 or 2 SPs at the start of the offseason. I think getting a reclamation project would be a smart plan and I kind of got my eye on Scott Feldman to fill that role. If you look beyond his 2012 ERA and his injury riddled 2011 season you can see a potential #3 starter for very cheap. He's young for a FA (30), throws hard (91.7), limits his walks (2.33 BB/9) and a switch to the NL should boost his K ratio (6.99)

 

The bonus is that he has experience pitching out of the pen if he should fail as a starter.

Feldman is a great idea. Is he healthy? Will he be ready for next year?

[SRB]

Feldman would be perfect (relatively cheap, great peripherals last season), but doesn't seem like a Melvin move to me. Although he is an ex-Ranger...

[Bnowell4evr]

Feldman should be healthy. He pitched throughout September and into October.

[TooLiveBrew]

The more I think about the situation the Brewers have with Corey Hart, the more I'm interested in investigating pitchers in similar contractual situations to Hart -- one year deals & unlikely to accept a QO if tendered after the '13 season.

 

So here's a quick & dirty list, with 2013 base salaries in parentheses, thanks to MLBTR's list of 2014 FAs:

 

Gavin Floyd ($9.5M) ... '12: 168 IP -- elbow injury

Matt Garza (ARB Y3) ... '12: 103.2 IP -- elbow injury

Jason Hammel ($4.75M) ... '12: 118 IP -- knee injury

Phil Hughes (ARB Y3)

Paul Maholm ($6.5M)

Ricky Nolasco ($11.5M)

Jason Vargas (ARB Y3)

Edinson Volquez (ARB Y3)

 

Obviously Nolasco's been discussed a fair amount already, and I feel like Ervin Santana's name being brought up in hot stove chatter has been an annual tradition for the past three or four season. So yes, some of these guys have been discussed already, some wouldn't be fits for various reasons, but I'm curious to get others' takes on going this route. And by no means do I think I've named every player that could be considered; I just did my best to sift quickly through the MLBTR list.

 

The main attraction for me with this angle is the comp. pick recouped after '13, but the fiscal responsibility is also alluring. Yes, you have to give from your prospect pool, but in theory the price isn't too steep given the one-yr. contract.

 

All but Garza & the last three on my list are playing for likely contenders in '13, so it might not be easy or realistic to target half of these guys.

[endaround]

Floyd looks to be a buy low candidate. He has a decent shot to return to his 2009-2011 form. A Gomez for Floyd deal?

 

Hughes might make some sense if the Yankees get really desperate for cheap 3B help and want something around Green. But Hughes really is just an innings eater.

 

Nolasco has the talent and clearly is available, but there is risk there that he never matches what he should do.

[Eye Black]

The main attraction for me with this angle is the comp. pick recouped after '13, but the fiscal responsibility is also alluring. Yes, you have to give from your prospect pool, but in theory the price isn't too steep given the one-yr. contract

Agree with TLB, this option is gaining appeal over paying too much for multiple years via free agency. I think Jason Vargas could be a solid one year rotation filler, and as mentioned would potentially turn into a comp pick.

[nate82]

Apparently the Tigers are willing to trade Drew Smyly. I wonder what it would take for the Tigers to trade Smyly. I would rather have Smyly than Porcello but if the Brewers some how got either one of these two I wouldn't be all that disappointed in getting either. I am not sure the Brewers have what the Tigers might want maybe a Weeks and a prospect for Smyly trade could be possible?

 

I am a huge Weeks fan but I believe if you can trade Weeks and a lower level prospect for Smyly that is the type of a deal the Brewers need to be doing. A rotation for the next few years of Gallardo, Smyly, Peralta, Rogers, Fiers/Jungmann/etc.... wouldn't be an all that bad of a rotation. Again I am not sure the Tigers would do that trade but they do have a hole at 2B as I believe they have Omar Infante currently playing 2B. If anything I would do a Smyly and Infante for Weeks and ????? I am not sure who the Tigers would be interested in I was thinking someone like Gindl who could take the spot of Boesch.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/tigers-taking-calls-on-drew-smyly.html

[wisniewski]

Apparently the Tigers are willing to trade Drew Smyly. I wonder what it would take for the Tigers to trade Smyly.

 

Who would realistically bring back more for the Tigers; Porcello or Smyly? Honestly, since Porcello's name was brought up here a week or two ago it's the one deal I was hoping Melvin could swing. I think he's a hell of a pitcher and I believe he would be an excellent addition to the staff. I've read that 'several' NL teams are interested.