Possible Trade Targets - Starting Pitching

[wisniewski]

Excellent post Nate, and outstanding breakdown of the pitching FA market. Great read. I know this is (re) stating the obvious, but those QO's are going to shape a lot of how this plays out. (IMO)

 

To Monty's post above about adding a vet stop-gap type in the rotation - one guy I keep flip-flopping on in that spot is Joe Saunders. Part of me thinks he'd be a good vet stop-gap, but then part of me wonders if he's really that much of an upgrade over what we'd have in house.

[Warning Track Power]

In your scenario Monty, I am going with option D and it being a James Shields-like player. When have we ever seen Melvin go with Option C in any trade? Hardy for Gomez is the only one that comes to mind initially.

 

Yeah Melvin never does that. Well as long as you don't count Leskanic, Sexson, Young, Franklin, Kolb, Ginter, Overbay, Davis, Gross, and ,you know, Greinke.

 

Option C is for a GOOD, young pitcher. Let's rehash here:

- Leskanic traded for Obermueller

- Young traded for Greg Bruso

- Franklin traded for Carlos Villanueva

- Kolb traded for Jose Capellan

- Ginter traded for Justin Lehr

- Overbay traded for Dave Bush & Zack Jackson

- Davis traded for Claudio Vargas & Greg Aquino

- Gross traded for Josh Butler

Looks like a lot of GOOD young pitchers there doesn't it.

[Bnowell4evr]

If the Brewers thought 1) Haren is healthy, and 2) his back stiffness/issues directly affected his performance in '12, then I'd like to see them go after him. Otherwise, I'd pass on a guy that lost quite a bit of FB velocity last season.

 

I'm not a big fan of Santana... not sure he'd be better than anyone the Brewers already have.

 

I would bet that he'd be better than Fiers in 2012. Just look at the way the two of those pitchers finished up the 2012 season. Once Fiers was figured out the only team he could get past 6 innings was the Astros, Cubs and Pirates... Meanwhile Ervin got his gopher ball problem figured out and was lights out down the stretch minus his last outing.

 

I know Im in the minority with my opinion of Fiers but I firmly believe if he would've pitched the entire 2012 season he would've finished with an ERA north of 5 as well.

[StearnsFTW]

I'm not a big fan of Santana... not sure he'd be better than anyone the Brewers already have.

 

Giving up anything of value for Santana would be bad and at that price it would be even worse. If the Brewers wanted to add Santana they should just wait for the Angels to decline his option and pick him up for around $1-2m for a year. Santana wouldn't be bad as a 5th starter and hoping that he somehow comes back to where he once was. I have this feeling that the Brewers are only going to add a starter if they are able to get the starter at the price they want. There are going to be a lot of guys to choose from that the Brewers will be able to pick up either through a trade or through FA.

 

I am actually starting to look at FA and other than Greinke I don't see the other pitchers who are available getting a big contract. The only player I could see getting a big contract will be Jackson everyone else is either going to have to settle for a 1 or 2-year deal or in Lohse's case a 3-year deal. I don't think there are many teams out there this year that are going to be looking at this FA class and saying they are going to be spending a lot of money on these FA's.

 

If you look at the teams that are going to need a starter none of them are teams that are normally big spenders. I believe there is going to be an excess of average starters on the market this year in FA. Haren, Santana, Lohse, and Dempster will all be available in the average category while you will have Jackson and Sanchez in the above average category and only Greinke in the elite category. Greinke will get paid but Lohse, Haren, Santana, Dempster, Sanchez, and Jackson will all be waiting a long time before they get signed. If Jackson or Lohse get qualifying offers they may scare some teams away like the Brewers, Mets, Phillies, Pirates, etc. The Pirates to me would be a team that would be very interested in Jackson but may pursue Sanchez instead if Jackson gets a QO. The Orioles again would be a team interested in either Jackson or Lohse but if they get a QO I don't see Baltimore going after either of those two. I believe teams will try and go the trade route this off season as the arms in FA are just not worth the draft picks in Lohse and Jackson with only one real viable option in Sanchez but he may have increased his stock by pitching rather well in the playoffs. The trade market this year is going to be rather competitive and is going to be a sellers market as there are going to be more teams involved than normal as FA doesn't have the quality of arms to be a viable option this year. There are plenty of relief pitchers to pick from and this will be a buyers market something the Brewers need to exploit.

 

Breaking down the off season I don't see the Yankees playing in FA all that much as they are going to try and get under the luxury tax cap and the Red Sox don't look as though they are going to be major players either. The Dodgers look as though they are done spending with reports that they may trade Ethier. The Cardinals look to be set and will go with their younger pitchers they have coming up over the pricier veterans they have now. The Cubs don't look as though they are going to be players in FA this year either and neither do the White Sox. The Tigers may retain Sanchez and I think that will be there only move in the offseason. The Angels will look to be retaining Greinke and like the Tigers will probably be there only move. Nearly all of the big market clubs look as though they are going to be silent this off season in FA Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, White Sox, and the Tigers. Maybe I will be wrong but from what I have been reading and hearing it doesn't sound like any of the big markets are going to be going after many players in FA. The Rangers are a wild card to me and I think they may splurge on Hamilton and then again they may not. Should be an interesting off season which is going to start rather quickly.

 

 

I don't know if you just forgot about Annibal Sanchez when you wrote the bolded part, but he'll get at least 4 years and at least $50MM IMO.

 

I think you're wrong about the way the pitching market will move. Teams ALWAYS overpay for starting pitching. Don't see why this year would be any different.

[nate82]

I don't know if you just forgot about Annibal Sanchez when you wrote the bolded part, but he'll get at least 4 years and at least $50MM IMO.

 

I think you're wrong about the way the pitching market will move. Teams ALWAYS overpay for starting pitching. Don't see why this year would be any different.

 

Yeah I forgot about Sanchez but I believe he will resign with the Tigers or sign with the Orioles. Lohse maybe the exception but if he gets a QO who is going to sign him and lose a pick for Lohse?

 

Santana and Haren were not all that great in 2012 so they should come rather cheap. Dempster will get a 2 or 3 year deal at no more than 10-12m a year. I just do not see that much of a demand for these pitchers.

 

Most of the teams that are going to be adding a starter will be doing so are not big spending clubs. The Yankees may pick up a starter but they are not going to give someone like Lohse a Wilson type of contract as that would put them over the luxury tax cap.

[Warning Track Power]

If getting an SP with experience is the path that Melvin wants to go down this offseason, I could get on board with the Brewers going after Santana or Haren provided the Angels:

 

1. Pay $10+ million of Haren's $15.5 million

2. Pay $10+ million of Santana's $13 million

3. Trade is the equivalent of the K-Rod trade where the Brewers give up very little in terms of a prospect.

 

Haren will be 33 in September of 2013. Santana will be 30 in December of 2012. I honestly have always wanted to see Haren in Milwaukee so I would definitely be on board with Haren. I could see him posting a Greinke-esque ERA (mid 3s) & WHIP (1.15-1.25) minus the Ks. In fact as I am writing this I am becoming excited about the possibility of him being a #2 to Gallardo.

 

Santana is a different story. That would be more of a flyer than anything else. His HR totals are scary though for Miller Park.

[TheCrew07]

In your scenario Monty, I am going with option D and it being a James Shields-like player. When have we ever seen Melvin go with Option C in any trade? Hardy for Gomez is the only one that comes to mind initially.

 

Yeah Melvin never does that. Well as long as you don't count Leskanic, Sexson, Young, Franklin, Kolb, Ginter, Overbay, Davis, Gross, and ,you know, Greinke.

 

Say what? How are any of those deals outside of Sexson and Greinke remotely had the potential to be the kind of deal Monty is talking about? Most of those guys were simply simply being dumped, or moved for younger impact talent. Regardless, that trade history is hardly a ringing endorsement of Melvin's management strategy... trading midling scrubs for more midling fodder and/or players with higher floors and lower ceilings. The only high ceiling player in the Sexson trade was JDLR and he was being moved for the 2nd time because he wasn't improving and nearly out of options. Melvin did do quite well in the Greinke deal, I have high hopes that Segura and 1 of the 2 pitchers will prove valuable.

 

Melvin did have a chance to make splash trading the vastly overrated Ginter for Nelson Cruz and Justin Lehr but then magically turned Cruz and Lee into Cordero, Cordero, Mench, and Nix... wonderful value, or something. A minor leaguer who couldn't throw strikes, a closer we didn't need, and 2 OFs we didn't particularily need and shouldn't have wanted.

 

I always liked Villy, that was good trade as Franklin was just garbage, but Villy isn't a high ceiling player either.

 

I've beat the Overbay trade to death but there wasn't a single high ceiling player in that deal. In fact, as I've pointed out many times Bush and Jackson were the worst of the young pitchers Toronto had to offer at the time.

 

I can't believe you put Leskanic up there? A 35 year old reliever who couldn't stay healthy for Machado and Obermueller? Eric Young? Really? Traded for Greg Bruso? That's a winning move? Kolb for Cappellan was a winner?

 

Seriously, comparing any of the deals you listed to the Greinke deal is a farce, there wasn't legitimate impact talent coming back any in of those deals. They were all trades for high floor/low ceiling types or garbage for garbage.

 

Defend Melvin all you want, but at least stay true to the point the poster you quoted was trying to make. It simply isn't fair to lump all trades for a young players into one category, especially when the topic is cycling talent, because trading garbage for garbage isn't the idea. The idea is trading replacable talent to get young impact talent back of all the players moved prior to the Greinke trade the only 2 players with significant upside were Cruz and JDLR.

 

There's no way Capellan would have been rated as high as he was today with realistic velocities and scouting reports out there. A 2 pitch pitcher without an out pitch, he might have been the most overated pitching prospect in a long time, probably because Atlanta had such an excellent pitching reputation. He never came close to the reported 100 MPH gun hits with the Brewers and I never saw or heard him throw a pitch over 95 even as a reliever. Regardless, Kolb was done and the Brewers knew it, Capellan was probably the best the Brewers could do, but that's nothing like spinning Greinke into Segura, Pena, and Hellweg.

 

The Greinke trade is exacty the type of trade that I was hoping Melvin would have made more of. However, as has been pointed out literally hundreds of times he prefers to turn prospects with impact potential into short term solutions for the MLB team. I don't mind trading prospects, but I do mind trading any asset(s) for temporary solutions, give me 3 years or move on to another deal.

[Bnowell4evr]

Melvin did have a chance to make splash trading the vastly overrated Ginter for Nelson Cruz and Justin Lehr but then magically turned Cruz and Lee into Cordero, Cordero, Mench, and Nix... wonderful value, or something. A minor leaguer who couldn't throw strikes, a closer we didn't need, and 2 OFs we didn't particularily need and shouldn't have wanted.

 

Do you remember how bad our pen was that year? That was when Derek went TurnBLOW on us. I'm not saying that trade was the way to go as I remember some Ervin Santana rumors floating around that time but a closer was most certainly a need. That is unless you thought Matt Wise could have gotten the job done

[nate82]

 

There's no way Capellan would have been rated as high as he was today with realistic velocities and scouting reports out there. A 2 pitch pitcher without an out pitch, he might have been the most overated pitching prospect in a long time, probably because Atlanta had such an excellent pitching reputation. He never came close to the reported 100 MPH gun hits with the Brewers and I never saw or heard him throw a pitch over 95 even as a reliever. Regardless, Kolb was done and the Brewers knew it, Capellan was probably the best the Brewers could do, but that's nothing like spinning Greinke into Segura, Pena, and Hellweg.

 

Are you sure that Capellan wouldn't have been rated as high as he was in todays scoouting reports? There are plenty of pitchers like Capellan that get rated rather high and are only 2 pitch pitchers and who can throw rather hard. Aroldis Chapman is someone who is comparable to Capellan in that regard (Chapman throws three different pitches). Plus scouts have always liked velocity from a pitcher. If a pitcher can throw hard they are rated rather highly regardless of how many pitches they can throw or can't throw. So your statement there is rather false as I don't see how he wouldn't be rated rather highly if he is able to throw at a rather high velocity.

 

 

Capellan was clocked at 97 MPH in 2007 which was his max velocity that year and he sat around 92.6 in the limited time he played in 2007. He definitely was a bust but he was a rather good pick up for the player the Brewers gave up.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd go for Haren and I'm a guy that's been okay with sticking with what they have. Back issues are tricky, but he still made 30 starts and was better down the stretch (3-3, 3.31 ERA in Sept). If fully healthy, this is a top of the rotation starter, and even if it flares up some, he's likely to be solid mid rotation guy. I've always liked Haren.

 

Put another way, I'd rather have Haren (assuming the return isn't all that much) on one year at an inflated amount, than give a 30 something guy like Dempster an inflated 3 year deal.

[danzig6767]

If the Brewers thought 1) Haren is healthy, and 2) his back stiffness/issues directly affected his performance in '12, then I'd like to see them go after him. Otherwise, I'd pass on a guy that lost quite a bit of FB velocity last season.

 

I'm with you on Haren. If we could get him for a non-upper tier prospect, i'd prefer him to signing a guy to a say 3yr deal in free agency, assuming the Brewers front office/medical staff think Haren will recover from his back woes by spring training. He fits many of the things i'd want from a veteran starter addition

 

1. A contract lasting only one season

 

2. Recent high level success. His 2011 season was really good and not flukey.

 

3. When healthy, Haren has thrown 200 plus innings each time.

 

4. His K/BB ratio has always been a major strength.

 

Yea, Haren has a lot of innings on his arm, 1876 for his career and maybe that's caught up to him where he'll never have another very good season. The flip side to that though is he has been an ace or very close to an ace caliber pitcher for awhile, and as recently as 20011. There really aren't any other starters available with Haren's at least chance to be a No.1 starter for next year if healthy and certainly no other starter with his skills who could be had without giving up either multiple quality prospects and/or big money on a multi-year contract.

 

Melvin and the Brewers striking gold with a guy like Haren could end up being one of those type of moves we see in baseball which has a pretty dramatic impact on a team, even though the move didn't make major headlines at the time.

[chad25]

If we traded for Haren it wouldn't surprise me and I wouldn't be upset about it. 1 yr quality starter to fill in while our young arms get more seasoned.

 

But I am in the camp of wanting to trade for James Shields. We would definitely have to give up more talent but I would love to see him pitch in the NL. The Rays probably will not be able to resign him after next year and they have the depth in pitching where they can afford to lose Shields. That would allow the Rays some extra cash to go after a big bat in the outfield like Ryan Ludwick or Torii Hunter. They also need a 1B so they could make a run at Adam LaRoche. He will probably get a similar offer to what ARam got last year, 3 yr/$35-40 million.

 

So ideally I would trade for James Shields and Jose Molina.

 

I would give up Maldonado and Morris. Ishikawa can be added in as well.

 

It gives the Rays a cheap, young solution at catcher. Maldonado is great defensively, which is something they need to improve on at every position. And Morris a potential long-term solution at 1B.

 

If thats giving up too much for 1 yr guys, then they send us some cash as well. I just don't know how the Rays value what I would offer.

[trwi7]

• The Brewers did not get into the running for pitcher Dan Haren, who was being shopped by the Angels this week.

 

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121102&content_id=40155490&notebook_id=40155492&vkey=notebook_mil&c_id=mil

[markedman5]

Scott Stedman‏@ScottSted34

 

Source with knowledge of talks: Cubs/Angels finishing deal. Haren to Cubs for Marmol is the main piece

[ORBrewerFan]

MLBTradeRumors mentions that Baltimore might be willing to trade some of their young pitching. They have a need at first if the Brewers decide to sign Hamilton and trade Hart. Matusz/Britton/Arrieta?

[Bombers]

Now that Haren is a FA (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/dipoto-on-haren-hunter-santana-greinke.html) ... What kind of deal do you think he will get? Sounds like a good target for the crew ...

[Raw Biz]

MLBTradeRumors mentions that Baltimore might be willing to trade some of their young pitching. They have a need at first if the Brewers decide to sign Hamilton and trade Hart. Matusz/Britton/Arrieta?

 

None of those three are very appealing.

[Eye Black]

This thread seems to have started out on the right track (i.e. Lester). While I think Lester is most likely unobtainable, I could see the Brewers coveting a late 20's left-handed starting pitcher this off-season. Someone along the lines of a Jason Vargas or Clayton Richard. Both have seen success more recently in their careers and could potentially be signed to a longer term contract prior to reaching free agency. I realize this wouldn't add the #2 starter some are hoping for (myself included), but it would help stabilize the starting rotation for 2013 and add a LHP starter to the mix.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Now that Haren is a FA (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/11/dipoto-on-haren-hunter-santana-greinke.html) ... What kind of deal do you think he will get? Sounds like a good target for the crew ...

 

Brewers could have had him for $12 million or less on a 1 year deal would seem crazy to sign him to a multi year?

[Kelbysdaddy]

MLBTradeRumors mentions that Baltimore might be willing to trade some of their young pitching. They have a need at first if the Brewers decide to sign Hamilton and trade Hart. Matusz/Britton/Arrieta?

I wouldnt give hart for any of them but id give gamel probably for any of them.

[JohnBriggs12]

MLBTradeRumors mentions that Baltimore might be willing to trade some of their young pitching. They have a need at first if the Brewers decide to sign Hamilton and trade Hart. Matusz/Britton/Arrieta?

 

Young starting pitching isn't a need. While you can never have too many, the Brewers have a pretty deep group.

[Mass Haas]

If the Dodgers are going to gorge themselves at the starting pitcher buffet table, it may not take much to pry Chris Capuano back. There's your gutty # 4 slot southpaw at reasonable money and an option available if he excels --

 

13:$6M

14:$8M mutual option ($1M buyout)

Performance bonuses: $75,000 each for 160, 170, 180, 187, 195 innings annually. $0.25M for 360 innings in 2012-13

 

Thoughts?

[TooLiveBrew]

To me, it's clear that a #4 type is exactly the type of SP on which the Brewers shouldn't be looking to spend. They have around a half-dozen guys who could very realistically fill the #4 & #5 spots, and most of them are young pitchers who shouldn't be blocked because they need the MLB innings.

 

Capuano might provide good value, but I don't think he's a good fit for the Crew.

[MNBrew]

Capuano may be more of a #3 or #4 but the guy still has stretches where he pitches more like a #2 . . . just like Gallardo's more of a #1/1.5/2 but still has games where he pitches like an AAA pitcher.

 

Capuano's not in the first wave of guys I go after at all. But he's pretty durable over most of his career when Tommy John surgery's not involved. And the guy flat-out knows how to pitch (it's just a matter of how often the results prove he was successful at doing so).

[Kelbysdaddy]

Word is the rays are looking to trade pitching. What do you think We can get for gamel and maldonado? Catching and 1B are their main needs.