Possible Trade Targets - Starting Pitching

[wisniewski]

Just kind of thinking out loud and following the OP...

 

You'd rather trade something for Jon Lester and take on 2/25 vs giving someone like Edwin Jackson 3/33 or similar money?

 

Just my opinion but my desire would be to go the signing route. I believe Jackson is a better pitcher than Lester and it's costing me no assets. The money is similar and I get to keep my assets, no matter how 'middle of the road' they may be.

 

I also agree with TurboRickey's post regarding Jimenez. I'd want to steer clear of him.

[TooLiveBrew]

I believe Jackson is a better pitcher than Lester and it's costing me no assets.

I'm assuming the Nats will make a qualifying offer to Jackson, so it'd cost the Brewers their first round pick unless I'm remembering the new CBA rules incorrectly.

[RockCoCougars]

I hope the Brewers stay away from Jackson. He's got good stuff, has been durable and generally above average, but I have to think that there is a reason he keeps bouncing around. He's kind of like the Drew Gooden of baseball. From what I've seen, he's very inconsistent. I'm not a big fan of Lester either, considering what it would likely take to get him, plus he was plain bad for most of last year. I'm inclined to go with the young guys at this point, and add one low cost/low risk vet guy to the mix. I think that Bud Norris would be a good back of the rotation guy if the Astros are still in full fire sale mode and don't want too much for him.

[nate82]

I believe Jackson is a better pitcher than Lester and it's costing me no assets.

I'm assuming the Nats will make a qualifying offer to Jackson, so it'd cost the Brewers their first round pick unless I'm remembering the new CBA rules incorrectly.

 

Yes the Brewers would lose their 1st round pick and yes the Nationals are going to offer Jackson a qualifying offer. They may not sign Jackson to a long term deal but he is definitely going to get a qualifying offer. Lohse is also going to get a qualifying offer and the Cardinals may get stuck with him if they do give him a qualifying offer as I don't see many teams that will be willing to give up a 1st round pick for a #3 at best starter probably looking at a #4 or more likely a #5 starter getting paid like a #1 or #2 type starter.

 

I'm not sure teams are going to be willing to give up a first round pick for Jackson either. Also remember that players only have a few weeks to decide on if they will accept the offer or not and teams only have a short period to offer it also (I think I am remembering the new CBA correctly on this).

[wisniewski]

Ok, I hadn't realized that was the situation with Jackson. That the Brewers would surrender the 1st if they signed him after being qualified. So if he were to decline the qualifying offer does it still affect the signing team? Or would it be an automatic binding?

 

That said, I'd still actually consider it. I know that it's always a touch-and-go market when trading for pitching and I guess I'd rather give up a pick than a combo of prospects.

 

EDIT: And to RockCo's point above, although I'm a Jackson fan, I've always wondered why he never stuck with one team for very long.

[trwi7]

The Nationals offer it. Once they offer it and Jackson declines it you have to give up a pick. If they don't offer it, the Nats don't get a pick.

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok, I hadn't realized that was the situation with Jackson. That the Brewers would surrender the 1st if they signed him after being qualified. So if he were to decline the qualifying offer does it still affect the signing team? Or would it be an automatic binding?

 

That said, I'd still actually consider it. I know that it's always a touch-and-go market when trading for pitching and I guess I'd rather give up a pick than a combo of prospects.

Keep in mind you're talking about the #17 overall pick. That's pretty high up in the draft order for a team as talented as the Brewers. If forfeiting the pick somehow got the Brewers a good discount on the FA market price, then I might be somewhat interested... but it really doesn't, so you're paying market price (read: expensive as bleep) and forfeiting the best chance your org. has at landing an impact player in the next draft. I don't like that scenario.

 

 

EDIT: And to RockCo's point above, although I'm a Jackson fan, I've always wondered why he never stuck with one team for very long.

It's an interesting facet of his career, no doubt about it. It could be something behind the scenes. But maybe it's just that he has the kind of arm & stuff that make scouts' eyes bug out, but ultimately his results are lg-avg. or lg-above-avg. In other words, enticing enough for teams to want, but 'meh' enough that teams don't wind up viewing him as a centerpiece.

[logan82]

Do picks still get forfeited? I have read several conflicting opinions.

[monty57]

Do picks still get forfeited? I have read several conflicting opinions.

 

IIRC from back when we were discussing whether we should trade Greinke or take "the picks," the team which signs the player still gives up the same picks they always did, but the team losing the player no longer gets the 1st round pick - it simply goes away - and the team only gets the comp round pick. Once the board found that out, more people jumped on board the "trade Greinke" wagon.

 

Therefore, if the Brewers sign a "Qualifying offer" player, they would lose their 1st round pick (there's no longer "Type A," "Type B," etc) and the player's previous team would get a comp round pick. With the 17th overall pick, I would guess that it would have to be a very special player for Melvin to give up his draft pick. Lohse and Jackson probably don't fit in that category, and I agree with nate82 that if the Cardinals make a qualifying offer to Lohse, he will probably be a Cardinal next year.

 

But remember, players who did not finish the season with the team on which they started the season cannot be offered the Qualifying Offer, so we could still make a run at someone like Greinke without having to give up a pick.

[logan82]

I think you are right.

 

There’s been a lot of talk about the diminished trade value of prospective free agents under baseball’s new collective bargaining agreement, and rightfully so. Teams can no longer obtain draft pick compensation for players acquired midseason. Naturally, that affects the trade value of players on the cusp of free agency like Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels and Carlos Quentin.

 

There’s a second change to keep in mind as the trade deadline approaches, MLBTR has confirmed. Teams that keep their players now obtain one compensatory draft pick for losing a top free agent, whereas they previously obtained two selections. If a team loses a player who turned down a qualifying offer to sign elsewhere, the player's original team will obtain a single compensatory selection between the first and second rounds of the draft (the qualifying offers, which are based on the average salary of baseball’s 125 best-paid players, are expected to be worth $12.5MM or so).

[wisniewski]

EDIT: And to RockCo's point above, although I'm a Jackson fan, I've always wondered why he never stuck with one team for very long.

It's an interesting facet of his career, no doubt about it. It could be something behind the scenes. But maybe it's just that he has the kind of arm & stuff that make scouts' eyes bug out, but ultimately his results are lg-avg. or lg-above-avg. In other words, enticing enough for teams to want, but 'meh' enough that teams don't wind up viewing him as a centerpiece.

 

All great points.

 

And also thanks again TLB, Logan and Monty for providing that CBA info and clearing up the picks situation. It makes complete sense. I don't know what player would be there at #17 but I'm sure (as mentioned) the pick in that slot is more valuable to the Brewers than surrendering it to sign a pitcher.

 

The market is going to be inflated this offseason given the dearth of top of the rotation guys, and there's no way in [heck] I'd give up that pick for a guy like Kyle Lohse. No chance in fact. IMO, he is fool's gold and I've read various things over the years that he's not that great in the room (especially during his time in Philly). While I might still be inclined to think about it regarding Jackson, in the end I guess I am hanging onto that pick.

[jerichoholicninja]

Kyle Lohse has been a bad to below average pitcher his whole career. He put up one half-way decent season at age 33. Any team that gives him a long-term, big money contract is just stupid and deserves the epic disaster they are about to be a part of. And sadly, I could easily see it being the Brewers.

[TURBO]

Lohse = Suppan >> ??

[reillymcshane]

Kyle Lohse has been a bad to below average pitcher his whole career. He put up one half-way decent season at age 33. Any team that gives him a long-term, big money contract is just stupid and deserves the epic disaster they are about to be a part of. And sadly, I could easily see it being the Brewers.

Agreed. Lohse is a huge risk. I'd avoid him. Not at age 34. He's been all over the board performance-wise in his career. I don't trust him.

 

The only way I'd take him is on a short deal. One or two years. But nothing more.

[TURBO]

One issue I see with all our young guns in the rotation is this:

 

What happens if we are in a playoff run at the end of the season, and make the playoffs? Can we count on all these young guys to last into the playoffs? Odds are, some of them are going to run out of gas in September anyways, much less be able to pitch deep in the playoffs.

 

I think it is great that we have the chance to go into this season with great young, cost effective pitching, but I have serious issues with them being able to go into October. How many of these guys have pitched 200 innings in a single season?

 

For this reason I think we will have to bring in one more proven starting pitcher if we have any chance of making a deep play-off run in 2013.

 

EDIT: and for the record, I want nothing to do with Lohse, NOTHING...

[monty57]

One issue I see with all our young guns in the rotation is this:

 

What happens if we are in a playoff run at the end of the season, and make the playoffs? Can we count on all these young guys to last into the playoffs? Odds are, some of them are going to run out of gas in September anyways, much less be able to pitch deep in the playoffs.

 

I think it is great that we have the chance to go into this season with great young, cost effective pitching, but I have serious issues with them being able to go into October. How many of these guys have pitched 200 innings in a single season?

 

For this reason I think we will have to bring in one more proven starting pitcher if we have any chance of making a deep play-off run in 2013.

 

EDIT: and for the record, I want nothing to do with Lohse, NOTHING...

 

This is probably the biggest reason the Brewers are looking for a veteran starting pitcher. If the Brewers go with Yo, Fiers, {vet SP}, Estrada, Rogers, they could occasionally skip Rogers early in the season to keep his IP down, and start Peralta in AAA, where they could keep him on a pitch count to keep his innings down. This is why I'm a proponent of signing a one-year "stopgap," as we shouldn't have these concerns going into 2014, and I don't want to get stuck into a multi-year deal for someone who will not be better than the young guys coming up.

 

My guess is that Melvin will either:

 

A) Sign a one-year deal to a guy coming off an injury or down year.

B) Trade some mid-tier prospects for a average-ish vet with one or two years left on his contract.

C) Trade a decent MLB player (Hart, Gomez) for a good, young SP who we'll control for 4-6 years.

D) Trade a bunch of our prospects for a good vet with 1-2 years left on their contract (Greine-style trade)

 

It will probably be A or B, we'll get someone that won't really excite anyone, but will fit in as a #3/4 starter and eat up a lot of innings, which will solve the problem you illustrated. I'd be okay with C if the return is good enough. I hope we don't go down path D.

[Warning Track Power]

In your scenario Monty, I am going with option D and it being a James Shields-like player. When have we ever seen Melvin go with Option C in any trade? Hardy for Gomez is the only one that comes to mind initially.

[MNBrew]

In Monty's scenarios, I'd most hope for C because of the plethora of non-star-but-still-good position players in the system. Something rooted in Hart-for-Niemann would be solid. Hart/plus-for-Niemann/plus might be better. I'm hardly sold on the idea of trading Hart, but 1) there are several viable replacement options in-house, though granted none fully replace what Hart is at the moment, and 2) it might take someone of Hart's caliber to pry away a decent SP from Tampa.

[Bnowell4evr]

The Angels are shopping Dan Haren and Ervin Santana before the decision on their options are due. You could probably get Haren for dirt cheap since everyone knows the Angels intentions of using that money towards signing Greinke. If you think Haren can rebound from his back issues then this might be something worth looking into.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/20740083/angels-exploring-trades-for-haren--greinke-before-option-decision-is-due

[endaround]

In your scenario Monty, I am going with option D and it being a James Shields-like player. When have we ever seen Melvin go with Option C in any trade? Hardy for Gomez is the only one that comes to mind initially.

 

Yeah Melvin never does that. Well as long as you don't count Leskanic, Sexson, Young, Franklin, Kolb, Ginter, Overbay, Davis, Gross, and ,you know, Greinke.

[RockCoCougars]

I'd say no to Dan Haren. I make this analogy a lot, but to me, this is akin to Bando dealing for Grissom so the Indians could sign Lofton. To me, a lot of Haren's success is pitching on the West Coast. Recently, he's had durability issues, his K rate fell last season, and he's trending towards being a fly ball pitcher. I don't think that he's an impact pitcher in Miller Park.

[TooLiveBrew]

If the Brewers thought 1) Haren is healthy, and 2) his back stiffness/issues directly affected his performance in '12, then I'd like to see them go after him. Otherwise, I'd pass on a guy that lost quite a bit of FB velocity last season.

 

I'm not a big fan of Santana... not sure he'd be better than anyone the Brewers already have.

[nate82]

I'm not a big fan of Santana... not sure he'd be better than anyone the Brewers already have.

 

Giving up anything of value for Santana would be bad and at that price it would be even worse. If the Brewers wanted to add Santana they should just wait for the Angels to decline his option and pick him up for around $1-2m for a year. Santana wouldn't be bad as a 5th starter and hoping that he somehow comes back to where he once was. I have this feeling that the Brewers are only going to add a starter if they are able to get the starter at the price they want. There are going to be a lot of guys to choose from that the Brewers will be able to pick up either through a trade or through FA.

 

I am actually starting to look at FA and other than Greinke I don't see the other pitchers who are available getting a big contract. The only player I could see getting a big contract will be Jackson everyone else is either going to have to settle for a 1 or 2-year deal or in Lohse's case a 3-year deal. I don't think there are many teams out there this year that are going to be looking at this FA class and saying they are going to be spending a lot of money on these FA's.

 

If you look at the teams that are going to need a starter none of them are teams that are normally big spenders. I believe there is going to be an excess of average starters on the market this year in FA. Haren, Santana, Lohse, and Dempster will all be available in the average category while you will have Jackson and Sanchez in the above average category and only Greinke in the elite category. Greinke will get paid but Lohse, Haren, Santana, Dempster, Sanchez, and Jackson will all be waiting a long time before they get signed. If Jackson or Lohse get qualifying offers they may scare some teams away like the Brewers, Mets, Phillies, Pirates, etc. The Pirates to me would be a team that would be very interested in Jackson but may pursue Sanchez instead if Jackson gets a QO. The Orioles again would be a team interested in either Jackson or Lohse but if they get a QO I don't see Baltimore going after either of those two. I believe teams will try and go the trade route this off season as the arms in FA are just not worth the draft picks in Lohse and Jackson with only one real viable option in Sanchez but he may have increased his stock by pitching rather well in the playoffs. The trade market this year is going to be rather competitive and is going to be a sellers market as there are going to be more teams involved than normal as FA doesn't have the quality of arms to be a viable option this year. There are plenty of relief pitchers to pick from and this will be a buyers market something the Brewers need to exploit.

 

Breaking down the off season I don't see the Yankees playing in FA all that much as they are going to try and get under the luxury tax cap and the Red Sox don't look as though they are going to be major players either. The Dodgers look as though they are done spending with reports that they may trade Ethier. The Cardinals look to be set and will go with their younger pitchers they have coming up over the pricier veterans they have now. The Cubs don't look as though they are going to be players in FA this year either and neither do the White Sox. The Tigers may retain Sanchez and I think that will be there only move in the offseason. The Angels will look to be retaining Greinke and like the Tigers will probably be there only move. Nearly all of the big market clubs look as though they are going to be silent this off season in FA Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Cubs, White Sox, and the Tigers. Maybe I will be wrong but from what I have been reading and hearing it doesn't sound like any of the big markets are going to be going after many players in FA. The Rangers are a wild card to me and I think they may splurge on Hamilton and then again they may not. Should be an interesting off season which is going to start rather quickly.

[SenatorShriv]

I've been starting to think that the answer is to start the season with some combo of the starting pitchers that we already have and beef up the bullpen via free agency. We've got enough options that we can keep a short leash on the pitchers who aren't performing right out of the gate. Should be easy to replace someone who is falling on their face with someone at least mediocre on short notice given the depth of #3 - 5 pitchers we have. If we're showing any glimpses of being a team that can compete we can look at trading prospects for a higher end arm.

[monty57]

Nate, I hope you're right that there are an excess of average starters on the market waiting to be signed and that the bullpen is a buyer's market. After reading Attanasio's comments, I believe that far and away the Brewers #1 priority this offseason is rebuilding the bullpen, with picking up a veteran SP the #2 priority. If you are correct, they should be able to pick up some bullpen arms early and then sign one of the remaining "average starting pitchers" to a one-year deal, solving the innings problem turborickey illustrated and not tying us up long-term, as we (hopefully) will have an excess of starting pitchers in a year or two.

 

We're probably looking at a payroll in the $80MM's, so I don't expect a big shock like the Greinke trade this offseason. Having a "name" pitcher willing to sign a team-friendly, short-term deal would be great.